Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 0.5 % LOWER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.3 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Fed Chair Powell calls for more help from Congress, says there’s a low risk of ‘overdoing it’
- Cruise ships worldwide with more than 250 people will test all passengers, crew for COVID-19
- European Medicines Agency reviewing reports of kidney injury in patients taking Gilead’s remdesivir
- COVID-19 cases surge in U.S. Midwest and Northeast
- The People Trump Came Home To
- Moderna vaccine trial contractors fail to enroll enough minorities, prompting slowdown
- COVID-19 Clotting May Be Linked With Antiphospholipid Antibodies
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Meds Could Treat COVID-19
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school (especially at college/university level) and continued loosening of regulations designed to slow the coronavirus spread.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 06 October 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 06 October 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 44,358 | 7,460,000 | 297,801 | 35,520,000 | 14.9% | 21.0% |
Deaths** | 398 | 210,192 | 4,179 | 1,040,000 | 9.5% | 20.2% |
Mortality Rate | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 3.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.98* | 357.13* |
* as of 02 Oct 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Fed Chair Powell calls for more help from Congress, says there’s a low risk of ‘overdoing it’ – CNBC
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday that aggressive policy help for the economy needs to continue.
- “The risks of overdoing it seem, for now, to be smaller,” the central bank chief told the National Association for Business Economics.
- Taking the foot off the gas now could risk thwarting a recovery that Powell said has been quicker than expected.
COVID-19 Clotting May Be Linked With Antiphospholipid Antibodies – Medscape
The excessive blood clotting seen in severe COVID-19 may in part be caused by the virus tricking the body into producing antiphospholipid antibodies, new research suggests.
In a study of 64 COVID-19 patients published on Wednesday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, those with severe disease consistently had more antiphospholipid antibodies than those with mild disease, regardless of gender or age.
“Our data strongly suggest that when our body fights the new coronavirus in our lungs, it also starts to fight its own proteins that keep our blood from clotting,” coauthor Dr. Omar Hasan Ali of The University of British Columbia told Reuters.
This problem has been seen before, in a rare autoimmune disease called antiphospholipid syndrome that is usually triggered by infections.
FDA releases high coronavirus vaccine standards despite White House resistance – Roll Call
The Food and Drug Administration issued long-awaited guidance Tuesday on the data it expects from drug companies seeking emergency authorization of COVID-19 vaccines, rejecting White House pressure for lower standards intended to push out vaccines quickly.
The 18-page guidance was released a day after reports suggested the White House had blocked the agency from issuing the guidelines, which are meant to engender public confidence.
One of the issues was whether the FDA would stick with its plan to require drugmakers to follow patients for two months after their final dose of a vaccine. The FDA guidance and another agency document quietly released earlier Tuesday maintained that requirement.
That would likely interfere with the White House’s push to issue an emergency authorization before Election Day on Nov. 3.
[editor’s note: Note that I have objected to the process of approving a vaccine as the process does not look at the reduction in hospitalizations and deaths – only reduction in the number of new cases.]
The People Trump Came Home To – The Atlantic
When Donald Trump returned to the White House today after his brief stay at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, these are the people he came home to. Trump and the first lady interact with dozens of White House employees every day, many of them nonpolitical and largely invisible to the American public. Because of his months-long failure to take COVID-19 seriously even inside his own home, Trump continues to place these staff members and their families at considerable risk. Which is to say that the blast radius from the president’s and the first lady’s illness could be a lot larger than many Americans realize.
… Of all the employees working on the White House grounds, perhaps no one has more exposure to the first family than the roughly 100 members of the residence staff. Trump and the first lady (not to mention Trump’s political advisers) have rarely worn masks, and each time the president has held a rally or speech outside the White House, he’s created opportunities for the virus to migrate inside the executive mansion. (That’s especially true if the president’s personal testing regime has not been as stringent as the administration has led the public to believe.)
While it’s unclear whether residence staffers’ duties have changed during the pandemic, a handful of them usually work quite intimately with the president and first lady, namely the butlers, valets, and housekeepers. They ride elevators with the first couple, helping them get to their destination; they iron their clothes and change their sheets; they escort them across the White House grounds; and they deliver their meals. “The West Wing and East Wing, plus the whole residence operation—from floral shop to ushers to chef to butlers [to the] curator’s office”—are all going to be directly affected by the recent outbreak, Dyer said. (Stephanie Grisham, Melania Trump’s chief of staff, said in a statement that “in consultation with the White House Medical Unit, all precautions are being taken to ensure the health and safety of the residence staff.”)
[editor’s note: A President is not like you and me – their life is in service to the country 24 hours a day. We do not want the President changing lightbulbs and making his own dinner – so there is a large support staff. I wish President Trump would wear a mask but I fear it would do little good in reducing the viral load in the residence.]
COVID-19 cases surge in U.S. Midwest and Northeast – Reuters
After crushing their COVID-19 outbreaks in the spring and keeping them in check all summer, states in the U.S. Northeast are now seeing infections accelerate, with New York reporting nearly 10,000 new cases last week.
Compared with the previous seven days, new cases in New York rose 102% in the week ended Oct. 4, while new cases in Connecticut rose 61% to 1,710 and new cases in New Jersey rose 23% to 4,650, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county reports. (Open tmsnrt.rs/2WTOZDR in an external browser for a Reuters graphic with state-by-state details)
Still, the percentage of tests in the Northeast that were coming back positive for the novel coronavirus remains very low, mostly in the 1%-2% range.
The Midwest continues to deal with the highest number of new cases per capita, with North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin reporting the largest number of new cases per 100,000 residents in the past two weeks. (See tmsnrt.rs/3cVIjg8)
Health officials have long said they were worried that colder weather — which is now hitting the Midwest and Northeast — would increase outbreaks as more activities move indoors.
Europe struggles to contain surge of cases – The Guardian
France reported nearly 17,000 new cases on Saturday, the highest daily number since widespread testing began. Aurélien Rousseau, director of the regional health agency, said that figure included an average 3,500 new cases every day in and around Paris. Among other measures, all in force for at least two weeks, gyms and pools will remain closed to adults, public gatherings will be limited to 10 people, and there will be a maximum of 1,000 people allowed in open-air stadiums for sporting or cultural events. Cinemas, theatres and student lecture halls are restricted to half their normal capacity, visits to people in care homes may continue but only by appointment and limited to two visitors at a time, and alcohol sales after 10pm and wedding and other parties in reception halls remain banned.
In Spain, authorities in the north-western region of Castilla y León said the cities of Palencia and León would follow the capital, Madrid, and nine nearby municipalities into partial lockdown for a fortnight from Tuesday, meaning people can only enter or exit the areas for work or on medical grounds.
Ireland’s government, meanwhile, was reported to have decided against a new nationwide lockdown after the national public health emergency team on Sunday recommended the country move to the highest level of restrictions, mirroring those of the original lockdown in March.
Russia, which has the fourth-highest number of cases worldwide, recorded a rise in cases on Monday close to its May record, but has so far stopped short of reimposing strict lockdown measures.
European Medicines Agency reviewing reports of kidney injury in patients taking Gilead’s remdesivir – Becker Hospital Review
The European Medicines Agency is starting a review of Gilead’s remdesivir after reports that some patients taking the drug developed acute kidney injury.
The agency said a safety committee will determine if there’s a causal relationship between remdesivir and acute kidney injury and will update the drug’s guidance for usage accordingly.
Remdesivir’s guidance already advises physicians to monitor patients for renal impairment before and during treatment and says not to give the drug to patients with a decrease in renal function.
Kidney injury in the patients could have been caused by other factors, including diabetes, and COVID-19 itself is known to be a cause of kidney injury, the European Medicines Agency said.
Moderna vaccine trial contractors fail to enroll enough minorities, prompting slowdown – Reuters
Private contractors hired by Moderna Inc to recruit volunteers for its coronavirus vaccine trial failed to enroll enough Black, Latino and Native American participants to determine how well the vaccine works in these populations, company executives and vaccine researchers told Reuters.
To make up for the shortfall, Moderna slowed enrollment of its late-stage trial and instructed research centers to focus on increasing participation among minority volunteers, the company said. The effort is being bolstered by academic researchers who have longstanding relationships with organizations in Black and other minority communities.
Five investigators working on the Moderna trial said in interviews that commercial site investigators quickly filled a large portion of the 30,000-person study with mostly white volunteers.
But COVID-19 infects Blacks in the United States at nearly three times the rate of white Americans, and they are twice as likely to die from the virus, according to a report by the National Urban League and other studies.
And communities of color count prominently among healthcare workers and populations at high risk of COVID-19 complications, making them among the first likely to be eligible for a new vaccine, experts said.
… During the last two weeks of September, Moderna said it increased the proportion of Black enrollment, but declined to provide details.
Cruise ships worldwide with more than 250 people will test all passengers, crew for COVID-19 – USA Today
Cruise lines around the world have committed to testing every passenger and crew member for COVID-19 before boarding, the industry’s leading trade group, Cruise Lines International Association, said Tuesday.
“CLIA ocean cruise line members worldwide have agreed to conduct 100% testing of passengers and crew on all ships with a capacity to carry 250 or more persons – with a negative test required for any embarkation,” Bari Golin-Blaugrund, vice president of strategic communications for Cruise Lines International Association, told USA TODAY in a statement.
“The global policy applies to ships capable of carrying 250 or more people, which is consistent with the policy in place as it relates to ships sailing from U.S. ports,” Golin-Blaugrund said.
The CDC’s “no-sail” order bars ships that can carry at least 250 passengers from cruising in U.S. waters until Nov. 1. The testing requirement is “effective immediately worldwide,” Golin-Blaugrund said.
CLIA’s member lines carry 95% of the world’s oceangoing cruisers.
Inflammatory Bowel Disease Meds Could Treat COVID-19 – Medscape
Immune-response signatures shared by patients with COVID-19 and patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) suggest a possible role for IBD medications in the treatment of COVID-19, researchers report.
“A number of overlapping inflammatory pathways between COVID-19 and IBD imply that some of the pre-existing IBD medications, like IL-12/23 inhibitors or TNF inhibitors, could be repurposed for use in COVID-19 patients,” Dr. Saurabh Mehandru of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, in New York City, told Reuters Health by email.
SARS-CoV-2 initiates infection by attaching the receptor-binding domain of the viral spike (S) protein to epithelial angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2), which is expressed by intestinal epithelial cells as well as lung epithelial cells. Cleavage of the S protein by transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) then facilitates viral entry into the host cell.
Dr. Mehandru and colleagues examined potential areas of intersection between the uninflamed and inflamed gastrointestinal tract and COVID-19 disease using endoscopy specimens, peripheral blood and biopsies from individuals with and without IBD.
The Most Common Coronavirus Conspiracies – Statista
The Cornell University conducted an analysis of Covid-19 misinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories circulating in the media and its findings were published by The New York Times. The researchers analyzed 38 million articles published in the English language globally between January 01 and May 26, finding that 1.1 million contained misinformation. That represents just under three percent of the entire Covid-19 conversation. One of its central findings is that the president of the United States is mentioned in nearly 38 percent of all articles containing misinformation, making him the largest driver of the infodemic (falsehoods about Covid-19).
Out of the 1.1 million articles found to contain spurious information, 46 percent fell under the category of misinformation/conspiracies. The study noted 11 different conspiracies ranging from Covid-19 being developed as a bioweapon in a Wuhan laboratory to mentions of the deep state and “a new world order”. Unsurprisingly, Bill Gates also popped up in the conspiracy theories, as did Dr. Anthony Fauci who was accused of exaggerating deaths and being an accessory to the pharmaceutical industry.
The most prevalent conspiracy theory by far was the miracle cure and it was the point of convergence for several different misinformation themes. Notably, they include President Trump advocating for hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine despite the fact that no peer-reviewed data found them to be effective in treating patients with Covid-19. Similarly, when Trump was ridiculed for claiming ultraviolet light and disinfectants might be used as a treatment, the number of articles in the “miracle cures” category of disinformation climbled from 10,000 to 30,000 in just one day. The study directly attributed the president with driving the above falsehoods.
You will find more infographics at Statista
[editor’s note: I have a different threshold of news that should be considered misinformation, falsehoods and conspiracy theories. Just because a subject deviates from what is considered the “truth”, does not make it misinformation.]
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Poland reports record number of COVID-19 deaths
‘A Matter of Survival’: Lebanon’s Hospitals on the Brink as COVID Cases Surge
UK’s Vaccine Task Force Head Says Vaccinating All of UK ‘Not Going to Happen’: FT
Italy is considering making masks mandatory outdoors
Singapore announces new financial incentives to encourage ‘pandemic babies.’
Rising levels of pandemic fatigue are being seen in Europe, WHO warns
China in talks with WHO over assessing its COVID-19 vaccines for global use
Masks are now mandatory in the German parliament
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Trump health official meets with doctors pushing herd immunity
Texas colleges offer free coronavirus tests. Why aren’t more students getting tested?
Lopinavir-ritonavir (Kaletra), a protease inhibitor mainly used for HIV, did not reduce mortality or speed recovery from COVID-19, Britain’s large RECOVERY trial affirmed.
Military officers quarantined as top Coast Guard official tests positive for COVID-19
White House physician says Trump reporting ‘no symptoms’ of COVID-19
Fauci gets his own action figure
Facebook removes Trump post comparing COVID-19 to flu
Southwest Airlines asks unions to accept pay cuts to prevent furloughs
Hospital COVID Risk Lowest for ICU Staff, Highest for Cleaners
Coronavirus restrictions in Sweden, which never issued a nationwide lockdown but implemented safety measures to mitigate the spread of infection, are expected to be in place for at least another year.
12 Oregon Prisoners Killed by COVID, Over 1,000 Inmates Infected
13-Year-Old Gave COVID to 11 People Across 4 States During Family Gathering
Schools are closed in 9 N.Y.C. areas where virus cases have risen.
GlaxoSmithKline widens trial for coronavirus antibody treatment
Teens are buying fewer clothes, less food as their spending hits two-decade low
Boeing slashes forecast for new aircraft, expects pandemic to hurt sales for more than a decade
The percentage of Americans who say they would get a Covid-19 vaccine is falling, CNN poll finds
More than 2,000 TSA employees have now tested positive for coronavirus
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Year-over-Year Growth Rate Declined
03 October 2020 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Little Changed Since End Of August
August 2020 Trade Again Improved But The Trade Deficit Continues To Grow
August 2020 CoreLogic Home Prices: Home Price Appreciation Jumped to 5.9%
Pandemic And The Policy Roots Of A Steady State Economy
How 3 Prior Pandemics Triggered Massive Societal Shifts
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 05 October 2020 Down $0.48 From A Year Ago
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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