Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 800 K to 880 K (consensus 850 K), and the Department of Labor reported 873,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 879,000 (reported last week as 878,250) to 867,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Note from the BLS concerning California:
In response to recommendations resulting from an internal review of state operations, the state of California has announced a two week pause in its processing of initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits. The state will use this time to reduce its claims processing backlog and implement fraud prevention technology. Recognizing that the pause will likely result in significant week to week swings in initial claims for California and the nation unrelated to any changes in economic conditions, California’s initial claims published in the UI Claims News Release will reflect the level reported during the last week prior to the pause. Upon completion of the pause and the post-pause processing, the state will submit revised reports to reflect claims in the week during which they were filed.
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 63,047,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 26,529,810
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 307 % higher than one year ago (versus the 311 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 837,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 870,000 to 873,000. The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 878,250 to 879,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.1 percent for the week ending September 19, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 8.6 to 8.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 19 was 11,767,000, a decrease of 980,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 167,000 from 12,580,000 to 12,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 12,701,250, a decrease of 381,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 41,750 from 13,040,750 to 13,082,500.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
