Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 7.5 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.1 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global coronavirus deaths now exceed 1,000,000
- Florida schools reopened en masse, but a surge in coronavirus didn’t follow
- Many COVID-19 Clinical Trials May Exclude Older Adults
- More Than 600,000 Child Cases Of COVID-19 Reported In U.S., But Severe Illness ‘Rare’
- Three Instances In Which An Blood Antibody Test For Coronavirus Would Be Warranted
- Restaurants brace for long COVID-19 winter
- Americans over 30 have been drinking more during the coronavirus pandemic
- New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic
- Meatpackers deny workers benefits for COVID-19 deaths, illnesses
- EU adds four more countries to “red list”
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 29 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 29 September 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 41,439 | 7,150,000 | 289,994 | 33,420,000 | 14.3% | 21.4% |
Deaths** | 314 | 205,070 | 3,712 | 1,000,000 | 8.5% | 20.5% |
Mortality Rate | 0.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 3.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.02* | 333.68* |
* as of 25 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Code Blue for COVID-19 Patients: No Survivors – MedPage
Survival chances were bleak among COVID-19 patients who sustained in-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA), U.S. data showed.
After a median 8 minutes of CPR on 54 such patients, 53.7% had return of spontaneous circulation, according to Corey Mayer, DO, MBA, of William Beaumont Hospital in Royal Oak, Michigan, and colleagues reporting online in JAMA Internal Medicine.
Roughly half of those patients had their code status changed to “do not resuscitate”; the other half were re-coded but died nonetheless after additional CPR.
Ultimately, none of the 54 COVID-19 patients survived to discharge after IHCA.
“The high mortality following CPR is likely multifactorial,” according to Mayer’s group.
New York bankruptcies reportedly surge 40% during pandemic – CNBC
- Bankruptcies in the New York City region have surged 40% during the pandemic, according to Bloomberg.
- The news outlet reported that 610 businesses filed for bankruptcy in the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York from March 16 to Sept. 27.
- Another flurry of bankruptcies and permanent closures is expected as cold weather arrives.
Infectious Diseases Society of America Says When to Test for COVID-19 Antibodies – Medscape
COVID-19 serology tests are widely available but evidence of their usefulness is limited, the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) said as it unveiled new guidelines in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
Antibodies to the novel coronavirus do not show up in the blood for quite a while after someone becomes infected, so serology tests are unreliable for diagnosing COVID-19 unless a patient has been sick for weeks, according to the guidelines.
The panel of authors, led by Dr. Kimberly Hanson of the University of Utah, listed three instances in which a test for antibodies to the coronavirus would be warranted.
The first is when doctors strongly suspect a patient has COVID-19 but gold-standard diagnostic PCR molecular tests that look for genetic components of the virus have been negative and at least two weeks have passed since the onset of symptoms.
The second is when a child has signs and symptoms of multisystem inflammatory syndrome, a life-threatening condition that has been linked with previous coronavirus infection.
The third is when public health officials conduct serosurveillance studies to track the proportion of the population that has been exposed to the virus.
More Than 600,000 Child Cases Of COVID-19 Reported In U.S., But Severe Illness ‘Rare’ – NPR
In a survey of data published on the health department websites of 49 states, New York City, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico and Guam, a total of 624,890 child cases of COVID-19 were reported from the start of the pandemic through Sept. 24, or 10.5% of all cases in states reporting infections according to age.
A smaller subset of states reported hospitalizations and mortality by age. The data from those states indicate “COVID-19-associated hospitalization and death is uncommon in children,” according to the survey.
The survey was compiled by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association. In announcing the survey, published Tuesday, the organizations said state-level reports are “the best publicly available data on child COVID-19 cases in the United States.”
“At this time, it appears that severe illness due to COVID-19 is rare among children,” the survey’s authors conclude.
Restaurants brace for long COVID-19 winter – The Hill
Restaurant groups are scrambling to secure funds to help an already hard-hit industry make the transition from summer to winter, when outdoor seating that helped many owners stay afloat during the pandemic will become much harder if not impossible to continue offering.
Many cities have become accommodating by making more sidewalk and street space available for bars and restaurants during the warmer months, but that may not be enough to attract customers as temperatures drop.
One in six restaurants have closed since the coronavirus took hold, and many fear that the next six months will be too much for small-business owners in colder climates.
Seventy-seven percent of full-service restaurant operators said they would likely take advantage of incentives, like a tax credit, to help them purchase tents and patio heaters, among other equipment, to extend the outdoor dining season, according to the National Restaurant Association.
“Congress is about to leave town and not come back until mid-November. The stakes are really high. Every week or two, every restaurant that was considered too revered to fail is announcing they are closing their doors. That was while things were good; that was while outdoor dining was a vital option for them,” said Sean Kennedy, the association’s executive vice president of public affairs.
Many COVID-19 Clinical Trials May Exclude Older Adults – Medscape
Nearly one quarter of clinical trials for COVID-19 treatments and vaccines may have exclusion criteria that specify an age-cut-off for enrollment, a new study suggests.
Researchers examined data on 847 studies registered in the clinicaltrials.gov database between October 1, 2019 and June 1, 2020 involving vaccines and treatments for COVID-19 to see how often people aged 55 and older, and particularly adults 65 to 80 who are most affected by the virus, are excluded from enrollment. Overall, 195 trials (23%) had an age cut-off for enrollment.
When researchers added in other exclusion criteria that indirectly created a high risk of excluding older adults from eligibility, they found that 53% of all trials in the analysis – including every vaccine trial – involved age-related direct or indirect exclusions.
“The important take-home message for clinicians, older adults, and global societies, is that older adults who are the target population of COVID-19, need to be included in any clinical trials of treatments or vaccines,” said senior study author Dr. Sharon Inouye, director of the Aging Brain Center at HebrewSeniorLife and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston, and a professor at Harvard Medical School.
“This is essential to develop and test treatments that work in this population, and to assure their safety,” Dr. Inouye said by email. “We hope that physicians will encourage their older adult patients to enroll in trials, that they will advocate for their inclusion with trialists and policymakers, and that they will observe the results of the trials in planning their treatment approaches.”
Florida schools reopened en masse, but a surge in coronavirus didn’t follow – USA Today
Many teachers and families feared a spike in COVID-19 cases when Florida made the controversial push to reopen schools in August with in-person instruction.
A USA TODAY analysis shows the state’s positive case count among kids ages 5 to 17 declined through late September after a peak in July. Among the counties seeing surges in overall cases, it’s college-age adults – not schoolchildren – driving the trend, the analysis found.
The early results in Florida show the success of rigorous mask wearing, social distancing, isolating contacts and quick contact tracing when necessary, health experts said.
“Many of the schools that have been able to successfully open have also been implementing control measures that are an important part of managing spread in these schools,” said Dr. Nathaniel Beers, who serves on the American Academy of Pediatrics’ Council on School Health.
Most small businesses say they’re ready for a coronavirus spike, survey shows – CNBC
- Some 63% of small and midsized businesses said they are likely to lose at least a quarter of their revenue this year.
- However, 78% overall said they feel at least somewhat confident they can handle another surge in Covid-19 cases in the fall and winter.
- The sentiment is expressed in a survey done by Comcast Business that comes as global deaths associated with Covid-19 reach 1 million.
Meatpackers deny workers benefits for COVID-19 deaths, illnesses – Reuters
Saul Sanchez died in April, one of six workers with fatal COVID-19 infections at meatpacker JBS USA’s [JBS.UL] slaughterhouse in Greeley, Colorado, the site of one of the earliest and deadliest coronavirus outbreaks at a U.S. meatpacking plant.
… JBS, the world’s largest meatpacker, denied the family’s application for workers’ compensation benefits, along with those filed by the families of two other Greeley workers who died of COVID-19, said lawyers handling the three claims. Families of the three other Greeley workers who died also sought compensation, a union representative said, but Reuters could not determine the status of their claims.
JBS has said the employees’ COVID-19 infections were not work-related in denying the claims, according to responses the company gave to employees, which were reviewed by Reuters.
… The meatpacking industry has suffered severe coronavirus outbreaks, in part because production-line workers often work side-by-side for long shifts. Companies including JBS, Tyson Foods Inc TSN.N and WH Group Ltd’s 0288.HK Smithfield Foods closed about 20 plants this spring after outbreaks, prompting President Donald Trump in April to order the plants to stay open to ensure the nation’s meat supply. [nL2N2CG14E] The White House declined to comment on the industry’s rejections of workers’ claims. The U.S. Department of Labor did not respond to a request for comment.
Tyson has also denied workers’ compensation claims stemming from a big outbreak in Iowa, workers’ attorneys told Reuters. Smithfield workers at a plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, also hit by a major outbreak, have generally not filed claims, a union official said, in part because the company has paid infected workers’ wages and medical bills.
Americans over 30 have been drinking more during the coronavirus pandemic, research shows – CNN
Americans over 30 have been drinking more during the coronavirus pandemic compared to this time last year, and there could be consequences to their physical and mental health, researchers reported Tuesday.
Overall frequency of alcohol consumption increased by about 14% from 2019, the researchers reported in the journal JAMA Network Open. That increase averages out to about one additional drinking day per month by 75% of adults.
RAND Corporation sociologist Michael Pollard and colleagues analyzed a nationally representative sample of 1,540 people ages 30 to 80. The participants completed a survey about their drinking habits between April 29 and June 9 of 2019 and then again between May 28 and June 16 of 2020.
The volunteers reported they drank alcohol on more days every week. They also reported increases in the number of drinks they had; the number of heavy drinking days; and the number of alcohol related problems over the last 30 days between 2019 and 2020.
EU adds four more countries to “red list” – Zoro News
The full list of “red” countries, with more than 120 cases per 100,000 people:
[editor’s note: per the CDC, the U.S. cumulative rate per 100,000 is 174.8]
- Spain (320)
- Czech Republic (267)
- France (235)
- Luxembourg (189)
- Belgium (171)
- The Netherlands (171)
- Iceland (128)
- Denmark (128)
- Hungary (127)
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Highest Ever Number of New COVID-19 Cases Recorded in U.K.
Russia Gives 5,000 People COVID-19 Vaccine as Hospital Capacity Nears 90%
How did Israel Fail so Quickly, so Terribly on Coronavirus?
Cruise Ship Coronavirus Outbreak False Alarm, Staff Tests Negative
Germany announces new limits on gatherings
Russian scientist behind Sputnik V vaccine defends ‘wartime’ roll-out
Finland slaps bars with nationwide midnight curfew, 10pm for capital region
Coronavirus in India live updates: Vice President Venkaiah Naidu tests positive, is asymptomatic
Coronavirus rates are rising sharply in Paris
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
8 Tennessee Titans Players And Staff Test Positive For Coronavirus
Many Arkansas Teachers Refuse In-Person Classes Amid COVID-19 Concerns
New York City reports uptick in COVID-19 cases as schools try to reopen
NYC COVID Positivity Rate Rises Above 3 Percent for First Time Since June
New York sees clusters pop up in Orthodox Jewish communities, governor says
Purdue suspends 14 students accused of throwing a party amid pandemic
Party of more than 1,000 people broken up by police near Florida State University
Democrats hope revised $2.2 trillion relief bill can rejuvenate talks
Eighth US service member dies from COVID-19
Wisconsin Hospital Sees Surge in COVID-19 Patients, ‘Second Wave Is Here’
Air Traffic Forecast Downgrade After Dismal Summer
Movie theaters in jeopardy as studios move blockbusters to 2021, audiences stay home
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
September 2020 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Improved
August 2020 Coincident Indices Mostly Improve But Remain In Contraction Year-over-Year
S and P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index July 2020 Year-over-Year Growth Slows
26 September 2020 New York Fed Weekly Economic Index (WEI): Index Little Changed In September
The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast September 2020
The Fed’s Emergency Lending Evolves
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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