Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 10.9 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 3.4 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Thanksgiving CDC Guidelines List Low- and High-Risk Holiday Activities
- More than 20 states report coronavirus spikes as experts warn of fall, winter surge
- Wisconsin Is on the Brink of a Major Outbreak
- Community Isolation Facilities Useful for Managing COVID-19 Pandemic
- About 80% of Asymptomatic People With COVID-19 Develop Symptoms
- Some workers in the U.S. face losing job-based health insurance
- Inovio’s potential COVID-19 vaccine trial on partial clinical hold
- Over half of small businesses worry social distancing will hurt their chances of survival
- COVID-19’s Crushing Impact On International Tourism
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 28 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 28 September 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 44,318 | 7,120,000 | 292,903 | 33,180,000 | 15.1% | 21.5% |
Deaths** | 259 | 204,756 | 3,633 | 998,784 | 7.1% | 20.5% |
Mortality Rate | 0.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 3.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.91* | 324.17* |
* as of 22 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Community Isolation Facilities Useful for Managing COVID-19 Pandemic – Medscape
Rapidly deployable community isolation facilities have proven effective for managing the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore, according to a new report.
“Isolation facilities with low-level care are an attractive alternative to overwhelming limited healthcare facilities,” Dr. Jay Lim of Singapore General Hospital told Reuters Health by email. “Not everyone with COVID requires hospital-level care.”
In April 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak emerged among foreign construction workers who lived in crowded dormitories in Singapore. By August, 94.3% of COVID-19 cases reported in the country involved these foreign workers, Dr. Lim and colleagues write in Annals of Internal Medicine.
In response, Singapore set up Community Care Facilities (CCFs) throughout the country to house patients with COVID-19 who were at low risk for dying of the disease. The Director of Medical Services was authorized to order any person infected or suspected of being infected with an infectious disease, or anyone in contact with such a person, to be detained and isolated in a hospital or other place.
COVID-19’s Crushing Impact On International Tourism – Statista
World Tourism Day is observed each year on September 27 to “foster awareness among the international community of the importance of tourism and its social, cultural, political and economic value.” While this year’s edition of World Tourism Day was meant to celebrate the role that tourism plays in rural development and providing opportunities outside of big cities, the official theme was overshadowed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a crushing impact on tourism around the world.
Earlier this year, the UN’s World Tourism Organization published estimates on how big the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on international tourist arrivals could be. The most positive of the three scenarios published in May assumed that travel restrictions would be lifted in July. Even under this scenario, which has already turned out to be too optimistic with international travel still severely restricted, the UNWTO expected international tourist arrivals to drop by 58 percent this year compared to 2019.
Looking at the latest data covering the first six months of 2020, the UNWTO’s estimates weren’t far off, though. As the following chart shows, international tourist arrivals were down 65 percent globally for the first half of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019. With the recent uptick in new infections around the world proving a major setback in efforts to reanimate the ailing tourism sector, millions of people are fearing for their livelihood, especially in regions heavily dependent on the influx of international tourists.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Fatality Rate For COVID-19 Drops Again – ZeroHedge
What’s are the real chances of dying if you are infected with COVID-19? You’ll probably be surprised how low they are according to new numbers from the Center for Disease Control. We’ll state those numbers simply for those of you who aren’t crazy about math.
The CDC’s new estimate, for the first time, is broken down by age groups. Here is what the CDC calls its “current best estimate” of chances of dying from the virus if you get infected:
- 1 out of 34,000 for ages 0 to 19;
- 1 out of 5,000 for ages 20 to 49;
- 1 out of 200 for ages 50 to 69; and
- 1 out of 20 for ages 70 and up.
Here’s another way to look at the same numbers. If you get infected, your chances of surviving are as follows:
Age Group Probability of Survival
0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70+: 94.6%The CDC’s numbers are actually published as what’s called the “Infection Fatality Ratio” or IFR. The relevant portion of their chart is reproduced below. We’ve just stated their numbers a different way and rounded a bit. IFR includes, as those who were “infected,” those who got the virus but never got sick or displayed symptoms.
The CDC’s “best estimate” may be off and it offered other scenarios, also shown in the chart below. They are all very low, however, as you can see. For those age 20-49, for example, even under the worse case scenario, the IFR is only .0003. That means your chances of dying even if you got infected would be 1 out of 3,333.
Estimates of COVID’s lethality have been dropping regularly. In March, when most of the nation went into lockdown, Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated the mortality rate at about 2% and the World Health Organization pegged it at about 3.4%. Both are far higher than the current CDC estimate.
‘It’s like every red flag’: Trump-ordered HHS ad blitz raises alarms – Politico
The health department is moving quickly on a highly unusual advertising campaign to “defeat despair” about the coronavirus, a $300 million-plus effort that was shaped by a political appointee close to President Donald Trump and executed in part by close allies of the official, using taxpayer funds.
The ad blitz, described in some budget documents as the “Covid-19 immediate surge public advertising and awareness campaign,” is expected to lean heavily on video interviews between administration officials and celebrities, who will discuss aspects of the coronavirus outbreak and address the Trump administration’s response to the crisis, according to six individuals with knowledge of the campaign who described its workings to POLITICO.
Senior administration officials have already recorded interviews with celebrities like actor Dennis Quaid and singer CeCe Winans, and the Health and Human Services Department also has pursued television host Dr. Mehmet Oz and musician Garth Brooks for roles in the campaign.
The public awareness campaign, which HHS is seeking to start airing before Election Day on Nov. 3, was largely conceived and organized by Michael Caputo, the health department’s top spokesperson who took medical leave last week and announced on Thursday that he had been diagnosed with cancer. Caputo, who has no medical or scientific background, claimed in a Facebook video on Sept. 13 that the campaign was “demanded of me by the president of the United States. Personally.”
Inovio’s potential COVID-19 vaccine trial on partial clinical hold – Reuters
Inovio Pharmaceuticals Inc said on Monday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration had placed a partial clinical hold on the company’s planned mid-to-late-stage trial of its experimental coronavirus vaccine candidate.
The company said the pause was not due to any side effects in its early-stage study of the vaccine.
The FDA had additional questions, including about the vaccine delivery device to be used in the study, Inovio said.
Wisconsin Is on the Brink of a Major Outbreak – The Atlantic
In New York, the decisive moment came in March. In Arizona and other Sun Belt states, it struck as the spring turned to summer. In every state that has so far seen a large spike of COVID-19 cases, there has been a moment when the early signs of an uptick are detectable—but a monstrous outbreak is not yet assured. Can a state realize what’s happening, and stop a surge in time? Wisconsin is about to find out.
In the past week, Wisconsin has crashed through its own coronavirus records, reporting more cases and more COVID-19 hospitalizations than it has at any time since the pandemic began, according to the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic. It now ranks among the top states in new cases per capita, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and it is reporting more new cases, in absolute terms, than all states but California, Texas, and Florida.
Wisconsin’s outlook was deteriorating into the weekend. Yesterday, it reported more than 2,620 new cases of COVID-19, an all-time high. More than 540 people are hospitalized with the virus statewide.
Adolescents twice as likely as young children to test positive for COVID-19 – The Hill
Adolescents are twice as likely as young children to test positive for COVID-19, according to a new analysis released Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Between March 1 and September 19, more than 277,000 children tested positive for COVID-19; 63 percent were between the ages of 12 and 17 while 37 percent were between the ages of 5 and 11.
“Incidence among adolescents was approximately double that among younger children throughout the reporting period,” the authors wrote in the analysis.
More than 20 states report coronavirus spikes as experts warn of fall, winter surge – The Hill
New coronavirus cases increased over the past week by at least 10 percent, in 21 predominantly Western states, according to a CNN analysis.
Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Washington state, Wisconsin and Wyoming have all seen increases in the virus, the analysis found, based on data from Johns Hopkins University.
In the meantime, only 11 states saw new cases fall more than 10 percent compared to the week before: Arizona, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia. The remaining 18 states saw level infection rates.
The news comes as public health experts have expressed concerns over a new fall and winter wave of the virus as colder temperatures cause Americans to spend more time indoors. A “huge surge” is likely as the end of the year approaches, Chris Murray, director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), told CNN.
About 80% of Asymptomatic People With COVID-19 Develop Symptoms – Medscape
Approximately 20% of asymptomatic people who test positive for COVID-19 will remain symptom-free over time, according to two studies published September 22 in different journals. The researchers propose, therefore, that most asymptomatic patients should be considered presymptomatic.
“Only a minority of people with SARS-CoV-2 have a truly asymptomatic infection. Most patients with SARS-CoV-2 who are asymptomatic at the time of testing will go on to develop symptoms,” study author Nicola Low, MD, head of the Research Group at the Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine at the University of Bern in Switzerland, told Medscape Medical News.
The result also suggests expanded testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection is warranted, especially among those at higher risk, and supports use of control measures including masks, physical distancing, and isolation.
“People with asymptomatic infection are infectious. All should be isolated and contact tracing should be started,” Low added.
Thanksgiving CDC Guidelines List Low- and High-Risk Holiday Activities – Newsweek
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued advice on how to celebrate Thanksgiving 2020 in a guide that categorizes typical holiday activities as lower risk, moderate risk, and higher risk.
Lower risk activities for Thanksgiving 2020
- Having a small dinner with your household
- Preparing traditional family recipes for family and neighbors, especially those at higher risk of severe illness from COVID-19, and delivering them without contact
- Having a virtual dinner and sharing recipes with friends and family
- Shopping online rather than in person on the day after Thanksgiving or the following Monday
- Watching sports events, parades, and movies from home
Moderate risk activities for Thanksgiving 2020
- Having a small outdoor dinner with family and friends who live in your community
- Visiting pumpkin patches or orchards that follow safety guidelines, including using hand sanitizer before touching pumpkins or picking apples, wearing masks and social distancing
- Attending a small outdoor sports events with safety precautions in place
Higher risk activities for Thanksgiving 2020
- Going shopping in crowded stores just before, on, or after Thanksgiving
- Participating or being a spectator at a crowded race
- Attending crowded parades
- Using alcohol or drugs, which can cloud judgment and increase risky behaviors
- Attending large indoor gatherings with people from outside of your household
Some workers in the U.S. face losing job-based health insurance. – New York Times
Not only are businesses shedding workers, with America’s unemployed numbering roughly 13.6 million, but employers are also cutting expenses like health coverage, and projections of rising numbers of uninsured have grown bleak.
Tens of millions of people could lose their job-based insurance by the end of the year, said Stan Dorn, the director of the National Center for Coverage Innovation at Families USA, a consumer group in Washington, D.C. “The odds are we are on track to have the largest coverage losses in our history,” he said.
While estimates vary, a recent Urban Institute analysis of census data says at least three million Americans have already lost job-based coverage, and a separate analysis from Avalere Health predicts some 12 million will lose it by the end of this year. Both studies highlight the disproportionate effect on Black and Hispanic workers.
Many businesses have tried to keep their workers insured during the pandemic. Employers relied on government aid, including the Paycheck Protection Program authorized by Congress to ease the economic fallout, to pay for premiums through the spring and summer.
Over half of small businesses worry social distancing will hurt their chances of survival: Survey – CNBC
- Small business owners around the U.S. indicate slightly improved sales conditions since the spring, according to a new survey from Verizon Business.
- Still, over half on Main Street remain worried that social distancing measures decrease their survival chances.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Dubai announces new restrictions to slow coronavirus infections
India hits 6 million coronavirus infections, approaches 100,000 deaths
Coronavirus Outbreak on Cruise Ship’s First Voyage Post-Lockdown as 12 Crew Infected
Putin Says He Will Receive Russia’s Sputnik Coronavirus Vaccine
In Britain, quarantine violators face fines up to 10,000 pounds.
Growing numbers of Europeans cry hoax as new virus cases rise.
With no school to go to, the world’s children go to work.
As global Covid-19 deaths near 1 million, the World Health Organization says the reported total is likely an “underestimate.”
Canada’s largest province reports high number of COVID-19 daily cases
Beijing orders importers to avoid frozen food from countries with major coronavirus outbreaks
Melbourne lifts curfew after nearly 2 months of lockdown as coronavirus cases fall
The G20 Summit in November will be held virtually
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Florida Gov. Lifting State’s Restaurant Restrictions Under Phase 3 Reopening [editor’s note: Southern Florida has not changed restaurant restrictions]
Child deaths tied to covid-19 remain remarkably low, months into U.S. pandemic
Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston shared details about the COVID-19 cluster linked to two inpatient units. More than 650 individuals are connected to the cluster, with 23 employees and 11 patients testing positive.
Two Charged in Coronavirus Outbreak at Veterans’ Home That Left 76 Dead
NYC Principals Union Votes ‘No Confidence’ In The NYC Mayor And Schools Chancellor
Teachers in Little Rock announce they will not report to in-person classes
‘It Worked’: In New York City, Pandemic-Inspired Outdoor Dining to Become Permanent
J&J Signs Manufacturing Deal With GRAM for Potential COVID-19 Vaccine
North Dakota Coronavirus Case Records Broken Every Day for a Week
Baptism Party With More Than 250 Guests Not Wearing Masks Shut Down
The U.S. is ‘not in a good place’ as daily coronavirus cases grow beyond 40,000, Fauci says
Maryland man sentenced to 1 year in jail for holding large parties, violating state’s Covid-19 rules
A Million Deaths From Coronavirus: Seven Experts Consider Key Questions
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
September 2020 Texas Manufacturing Improves
The Coronavirus Crisis And Debt Relief
Infographic Of The Day: 10 Ways To Adapt In The Time Of COVID-19
Fewer People Attended Hospital With Stroke During The Pandemic – But Why?
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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