Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 800 K to 905 K (consensus 880 K), and the Department of Labor reported 870,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 913,500 (reported last week as 912,000) to 878,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 62,207,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 26,044,952
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 311 % higher than one year ago (versus the 328 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 870,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 6,000 from 860,000 to 866,000. The 4-week moving average was 878,250, a decrease of 35,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 912,000 to 913,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 8.6 to 8.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 12 was 12,580,000, a decrease of 167,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 119,000 from 12,628,000 to 12,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,040,750, a decrease of 478,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 29,750 from 13,489,000 to 13,518,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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