Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.3 % HIGHER than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 22.2 % LOWER than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- With influenza vaccines, significant increases in vaccination rates over the past decades have not been associated with reductions in deaths.
- U.S. Has Lost More Than 200,000 People To COVID-19
- First people to get COVID-19 vaccinations also will get daily health check-in text messages from the CDC
- More Than 90% of Americans Still Susceptible to COVID
- Colleges reopenings in-person likely added 3,000 U.S. COVID-19 cases per day
- Cancer Treatment May Make COVID-19 Less, Not More, Severe
- Johnson & Johnson First To Enter Final Trial Stage For A Single-Dose Vaccine
- Young People More Likely to Believe Virus Misinformation
- Remote work poses state tax challenges
- Brazilian City Ravaged by Coronavirus Reached Herd Immunity in Just Months
- A ‘distressed’ Birx questions how long she can remain on White House task force
The recent worsening of the trendlines for new cases should be attributed to going back to school – especially at college/university level.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 23 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 23 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,425 | 6,900,000 | 290,189 | 31,660,000 | 14.3% | 21.8% |
| Deaths** | 926 | 200,807 | 5,937 | 971,869 | 15.6% | 20.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.67* | 320.70* | ||||
* as of 20 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Brazilian City Ravaged by Coronavirus Reached Herd Immunity in Just Months – Newsweek
A city in the Brazilian Amazon reached the herd immunity threshold for coronavirus after it swept through with little to no measures in place to stop infection, a study has found.
The city of Manaus, with a population of over two million, was one of the worst hit cities for COVID-19 cases in Brazil. No lockdown was implemented and no major steps were taken to limit the spread of the virus. The first case was reported there in the middle of March. Within two months, hospitals were overwhelmed and the death rate was far above the average for Brazil.
Now, an international team of researchers has assessed the proportion of the population in Manaus that was infected with coronavirus at its peak, and how cases fell in the aftermath, concluding herd immunity had been achieved. This is where such a large proportion of the population has been infected with a disease that it is no longer able to spread at a significant rate.
The preprint study that appears on the website medrxiv.org has not been peer reviewed or published in a scientific journal, meaning it has not been assessed by a panel of experts to assess the validity of the findings. As such, the results should be taken with caution.
Johnson & Johnson First To Enter Final Trial Stage For A Single-Dose Vaccine – Kaiser Health
Johnson & Johnson said Wednesday it started a 60,000-person clinical trial of its single-dose Covid-19 vaccine on three continents, becoming the fourth experimental Covid-19 shot to enter final-stage testing in the U.S. The New Brunswick, N.J., company said it could learn pivotal results from the trial by early next year, which if positive could lead to government authorization of the vaccine for emergency use soon afterward. J&J aims to enroll adult volunteers in the U.S. and several other countries, including Brazil and South Africa.
First people to get COVID-19 vaccinations also will get daily health check-in text messages from the CDC – USA Today
As the United States gears up for a massive immunization effort to begin as soon as a coronavirus vaccine is available, health officials are planning the details of the rollout.
While all new vaccines are closely followed once they enter the market, because a COVID-19 vaccine is likely to be released under an Emergency Use Authorization, safety considerations are front and center.
To track reactions in real time, the first people to be vaccinated against COVID-19 will get daily email and text messages the first week after their shot asking how they’re feeling. After that first week, they’ll continue to get weekly messages for the next month and a half.
The first wave of immunizations are expected to go to up to 20 million Americans classified as essential workers. These include frontline health care workers, police, firefighters and paramedics, critical food and industry workers and potentially teachers. At least one of several candidate vaccines may be available by the end of the year.
The emails and texts will come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said Dr. Tom Shimabukuro of the CDC’s COVID-19 Vaccine Planning Unit. He spoke at a meeting Tuesday of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.
The first texts will ask four questions:
- Any pain, redness, swelling or itching at the injection site?
- Any chills, headaches, joint pains, muscle or body aches, fatigue or tiredness, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, abdominal pain or rash?
- Any other symptoms or health conditions to report?
- Did any of the symptoms cause them to:
- Miss work?
- Be unable to do their normal daily activities?
- Get care from a doctor or other health care professional?
Colleges reopenings in-person likely added 3,000 U.S. COVID-19 cases per day: study – Reuters
Reopening college and university campuses for in-person instruction during late summer this year could be associated with more than 3,000 additional cases of COVID-19 per day in the United States in recent weeks, according to a new study.
The findings call into question the practicality of face-to-face classes during the COVID-19 pandemic, and are important as colleges and universities plan their spring 2020 semesters, said researchers from the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Indiana University, the University of Washington and Davidson College.
The findings are yet to be peer reviewed and have not yet been published online.
Rural Hospitals Teeter On Financial Cliff As COVID-19 Medicare Loans Come Due – NPR
David Usher, chief financial officer for a 12-bed rural hospital in western Kansas, is sitting on $1.7 million he’s scared to spend.
The money lent from the federal government is meant to help hospitals and other health care providers weather the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet some hospital administrators have called it a payday loan program that is now brutally due for repayment at a time when the institutions still need help.
Coronavirus cases have “picked up recently and it’s quite worrying,” says Usher, who is the chief financial officer for Edwards County Medical Center in Kinsley, Kan. He would like to use the federal loan money to build a negative-pressure room; such rooms are a common and effective tool for keeping contagious patients apart from those in the rest of the hospital.
But he’s not sure it’s safe to spend that cash. Officially, the total repayment of the loan is due this month. Otherwise, according to the loan’s terms, federal regulators will stop reimbursing the hospitals for Medicare patients’ treatments until the loan is repaid in full.
The federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has not yet begun trying to recoup its investment, with the coronavirus still affecting communities nationwide, but hospital leaders fear it may come calling for repayment any day now.
These Coronavirus Trials Don’t Answer the One Question We Need to Know – New York Times
If you were to approve a coronavirus vaccine, would you approve one that you only knew protected people only from the most mild form of Covid-19, or one that would prevent its serious complications?
The answer is obvious. You would want to protect against the worst cases.
But that’s not how the companies testing three of the leading coronavirus vaccine candidates, Moderna, Pfizer and AstraZeneca, whose U.S. trial is on hold, are approaching the problem.
According to the protocols for their studies, which they released late last week, a vaccine could meet the companies’ benchmark for success if it lowered the risk of mild Covid-19, but was never shown to reduce moderate or severe forms of the disease, or the risk of hospitalization, admissions to the intensive care unit or death.
To say a vaccine works should mean that most people no longer run the risk of getting seriously sick. That’s not what these trials will determine.
… Knowing how a clinical trial defines its primary endpoint — the measure used to determine a vaccine’s efficacy — is critical to understanding the knowledge it is built to discover. In the Moderna and Pfizer trials, even a mild case of Covid-19 — for instance, a cough plus a positive lab test — would qualify and muddy the results. AstraZeneca is slightly more stringent but would still count mild symptoms like a cough plus fever as a case. Only moderate or severe cases should be counted.
This is the case with influenza vaccines, which reduce the risk of mild disease in healthy adults. But there is no solid evidence they reduce the number of deaths, which occur largely among older people. In fact, significant increases in vaccination rates over the past decades have not been associated with reductions in deaths.
[editor’s note: this is a great think piece and deserves a full read]
Remote work poses state tax challenges – The Hill
Lawmakers and tax professionals are concerned that workers could face challenges when they file their state taxes next year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
The pandemic has resulted in many people working remotely in states that differ from their regular workplaces. Additionally, some health professionals have traveled to another state to treat patients in areas hard-hit by the virus.
In both cases, workers could end up owing taxes to that new state.
… “No health care worker ought to face an unexpected tax bill for the contributions that he or she made to fight the coronavirus,” Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) said in an interview with The Hill.
States have varying rules for how they tax people who work in their jurisdictions but aren’t residents.
FDA to Release Tougher COVID Vaccine Rules – Medscape
As soon as this week, the FDA is expected to issue tougher guidelines for an emergency use authorization of a coronavirus vaccine, according to The Washington Post.
The new standards will likely make approval more difficult, and a vaccine won’t likely be cleared before Election Day, the newspaper reported.
“It’s hard to imagine how an [emergency use authorization] could possibly occur before December,” Paul Offit, MD, director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and a member of the FDA’s advisory board on vaccines, told the newspaper.
The agency’s move is intended to increase transparency about the safety and efficacy of a potential vaccine. Public trust has dipped in recent weeks as President Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted at an approval by Nov. 3, and fears have increased around political interference with the vaccine process.
The guidance is now being reviewed by the White House Office of Management and Budget, the newspaper reported, and parts of it are being shared with vaccine producers. The Washington Post confirmed details with people who are familiar with the document but asked to speak anonymously.
Cancer Treatment May Make COVID-19 Less, Not More, Severe – Medscape
Cancer treatments including chemotherapy, biological agents, and immunotherapy appear to alter a patient’s immune response to COVID-19 in such a way as to make the infection less severe if these patients become infected, suggests a small study from Israel.
The team compared the response to SARS-CoV-2 virus in a group of patients with cancer on active treatment with those seen in healthcare workers, and found differences in the immune cell profiles that suggest a different inflammatory response to the virus in the two groups. Although the sample size was small, the difference was striking.
The study was published online today in the journal Cancers.
More Than 90% of Americans Still Susceptible to COVID, CDC Director Warns – Newsweek
Committee chair Lamar Alexander, a Republican from Tennessee, questioned Redfield on how many Americans have been infected by COVID-19. Alexander said he spoke to the British ambassador to the U.S. Tuesday, who told him that government studies based on serology testing showed that between 5 and 25 percent of the United Kingdom’s population had been exposed. “What about the American population?” Alexander asked Redfield.
“The preliminary results on the first round show that a majority of our nation, more than 90 percent of the population, remain susceptible,” he testified, adding that it varied based on geographic location. States that have had higher rates of infection have higher numbers of people who’ve been exposed to the virus, Redfield explained.
The CDC hopes to have the numbers finalized and the study published within the next week or so, Redfield said, but it already suggests that “the majority of Americans are susceptible to this virus.”
Alexander repeated the numbers to Redfield, confirming with him that, based on the preliminary indications from serological testing and studies, as many as 90 percent of Americans still have not had coronavirus.
Young People More Likely to Believe Virus Misinformation, Study Says – New York Times
As public health officials raise alarms about surging coronavirus cases among young people, new research suggests that Americans under 25 are most likely to believe virus-related misinformation about the severity of the disease and how it originated.
In a survey of 21,196 people in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, researchers identified a clear generational divide. Respondents 18 to 24 had an 18 percent probability of believing a false claim, compared with 9 percent for those over 65, according to the study, conducted by researchers from Harvard University, Rutgers University, Northeastern University and Northwestern University.
The results diverge from past research that said older people were more likely to share false news articles on social media. Last year, a paper published in Science found that people over the age of 65 were seven times as likely as those ages 30 to 44, the youngest group included in that survey, to share articles from websites that spread false information during the 2016 presidential campaign.
A ‘distressed’ Birx questions how long she can remain on White House task force, sources say – CNN
Once a fixture at the administration’s coronavirus briefings, Dr. Deborah Birx has confided to aides and friends that she has become so unhappy with what she sees as her diminished role as coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force that she is not certain how much longer she can serve in her position, sources familiar with her thinking tell CNN.
Birx has told people around her that she is “distressed” with the direction of the task force, describing the situation inside the nation’s response to the coronavirus as nightmarish.
According to people familiar with her thinking, Birx views Dr. Scott Atlas, a recent addition to the task force, as an unhealthy influence on President Donald Trump’s thinking when it comes to the virus.
“The President has found somebody who matches what he wants to believe,” a source close to Birx said of her view of Atlas’s relationship with Trump. “There is no doubt that she feels that her role has been diminished.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
British prime minister Boris Johnson has ordered a 10 p.m. curfew for bars and restaurants, and urged people to work from home if they can
Russian president Vladimir Putin wants a stronger WHO to coordinate the COVID-19 pandemic response and also proposed a world conference on vaccine cooperation.
Finland Becomes Second Country to Use COVID-Sniffing Dogs at Airport
Sweden Considering COVID-19 Restrictions as Cases Rise
Belgium hopes that loosening virus restrictions will increase compliance.
The number of daily reported coronavirus cases in the U.K. has jumped by a quarter in the past day, according to the BBC
Sweden’s Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has partly blamed the country’s high coronavirus death toll on mild flu outbreaks in recent winters.
Volunteers in the UK will reportedly be exposed to the coronavirus to speed up vaccine development
Saudi Arabia to gradually resume Umrah pilgrimage
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Pentagon used taxpayer money meant for masks and swabs to make jet engine parts and body armor
A South Dakota healthcare organization is co-hosting — along with South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) — an indoor country music event expected to draw 5,000 people.
Hollywood unions have reached agreements with major studios for resuming production on movies and TV shows, albeit with pandemic protections in place.
Pandemic Fizzle: Sizzler Steakhouse Chain Files For Bankruptcy Protection
Metropolitan Opera cancels 2020-21 season over coronavirus
US Health Agency Sets October 16 Deadline for States to Submit Vaccine Plans
Karaoke Party [Florida] Turned Superspreader Event Left 50 People Infected and 2 Dead
Mayor de Blasio announces expanded furloughs for New York City employees.
AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine trial remains on hold in the U.S., HHS chief Azar says
Fewer voters now say they will likely get a coronavirus vaccine when it becomes available than did over the summer, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Trucking Still In Contraction Year-over-Year
IMF Lending During The Pandemic And Beyond
Infographic Of The Day: Entrepreneurship Amidst COVID-19 – Challenges And Opportunities
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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