Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 830 K to 895 K (consensus 850 K), and the Department of Labor reported 860,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 973,000 (reported last week as 970,750) to 912,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 61,331,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as all programs continuing claims number is 29,768.326
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 328 % higher than one year ago (versus the 353 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending September 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 860,000, a decrease of 33,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 9,000 from 884,000 to 893,000. The 4-week moving average was 912,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 2,250 from 970,750 to 973,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.6 percent for the week ending September 5, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 9.2 to 9.3 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 5 was 12,628,000, a decrease of 916,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 159,000 from 13,385,000 to 13,544,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,489,000, a decrease of 532,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 39,750 from 13,982,000 to 14,021,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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