Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 13.0 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 12.5 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- China says no need to vaccinate entire population against Covid-19 at this stage, only frontline workers
- Inhaled COVID Vaccine That Delivers Drug Directly to Airways to Be Trialled
- Sturgis “Super Spreader” Bike Rally Vs Black Lives Matter “Fiery But Mostly Peaceful” Protests
- What Is the Risk of Catching the Coronavirus on a Plane?
- Vaccine Makers Keep Safety Details Quiet, Alarming Scientists
- Americans raid retirement savings to make ends meet
- No Sign of Second Wave Before Election, but COVID-19 Cases Could Get Worse
- Eli Lilly’s RA drug Olumiant helps shorten recovery in hospitalized Covid-19 patients
- New Research Shows Disproportionate Rate of Coronavirus Deaths in Polluted Areas
- Pfizer, Trump, Fauci Give Timelines for New Coronavirus Vaccine
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations – and evidence to-date shows a lower severity of COVID-19. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 14 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 14 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 34,794 | 6,520,000 | 268,437 | 29,050,000 | 13.0% | 22.4% |
| Deaths** | 378 | 194,079 | 3,769 | 924,706 | 10.0% | 21.0% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.39* | 292.40* | ||||
* as of 11 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Warning to Readers
The amount of politically biased articles on the internet continues to increase. And studies and opinions of the experts continue to contradict other studies and expert opinions. Honestly, it is difficult to believe anything anymore. A study usually cannot establish cause and effect – but only correlation. Be very careful what you believe about this pandemic.
I assemble this coronavirus update daily – sifting through the posts on the internet. I try to avoid politically slanted posts (mostly from CNN, New York Times, and the Washington Post) and can usually find unslanted posts on that subject from other sources on the internet. I wait to publish posts on subjects that I cannot validate across several sources. But after all this extra work, I do not know if I have conveyed the REAL facts. It is my job to provide information so that you have the facts necessary – and then it is up to readers to draw conclusions.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Inhaled COVID Vaccine That Delivers Drug Directly to Airways to Be Trialled – Newsweek
Atrial to see if an inhaled coronavirus vaccine would be more effective than one delivered via injection is starting in the U.K.
A small trial of 30 people will see participants inhale either the Oxford Vaccine, which is currently being developed by AstraZeneca and in the Phase III of testing, or the saRNA vaccine by Imperial College London, U.K. It is thought that by targeting the airways directly, which is one of the main entry points for the virus, the vaccine could produce a stronger immune response.
If this is the case, scientists could look at inhalation as an alternative method for vaccine delivery. Being able to deliver via inhalation could expand the number of people able to be vaccinated.
Judging by the way the media and medical authorities are reprimanding public events organized by right-leaning organizations, it appears beyond doubt that the coronavirus outbreak is being used as a political weapon to influence the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.
In early August, an estimated 460,000 motorcyclists took part in the annual pilgrimage to South Dakota. The Sturgis Biker Rally, which has been a major draw since 1938, is a 10-day event that generates hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, much of it made on alcohol-fueled fun and revelry. In other words, as the party poopers would say, the ideal conditions for a deadly virus to sweep through a broad swath of the population, leaving behind incalculable loss of life in its wake.
So now that the coronavirus has surpassed its Sturgis incubation period, how many reckless bikers lost their lives for not honoring social-distancing protocols at crowded hotspots for multiple days and nights on end? You may want to have a seat, this will shock you. The current death rate stands at just one (1) person. That’s right, as USA Today reported, the unidentified victim was a “Minnesota man…in his 60s and had underlying health conditions.”
… Yet that disturbing knowledge only draws further attention to the elephant in the sick room:
‘Why are left-leaning protest groups, like Black Lives Matter and Antifa, not getting tagged as ‘super spreader’ events as are church gatherings, motorcycle rallies and, perhaps most tellingly, Trump rallies? Indeed, Twitter blue checks have been nothing but kind and courteous to the ‘peaceful protestors.’
… In fact, the third offering by the search monster is an article by The Colorado Sun with a headline declaring ‘Black Lives Matter protests may have slowed overall spread of coronavirus…’
The story focuses on the only study to date that examines the correlation between BLM protests and the transmission of Covid in the population.
Relying on cellphone tracing technology similar to the Sturgis study, the team of economists (not epidemiologists, mind you) came up with a shockingly different conclusion from that of Sturgis:
“We find no evidence that urban protests reignited COVID-19 case or death growth after more than five weeks following the onset of protests. We conclude that predictions of population-level spikes in COVID-19 cases from Black Lives Matter protests were too narrowly conceived because of failure to account for non-participants’ behavioral responses to large gatherings.”
Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 – Politico
The health department’s politically appointed communications aides have demanded the right to review and seek changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly scientific reports charting the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, in what officials characterized as an attempt to intimidate the reports’ authors and water down their communications to health professionals.
In some cases, emails from communications aides to CDC Director Robert Redfield and other senior officials openly complained that the agency’s reports would undermine President Donald Trump’s optimistic messages about the outbreak, according to emails reviewed by POLITICO and three people familiar with the situation.
Top HHS official accuses scientists of plotting against Trump, tells supporters to buy ammunition – The Hill
The top communications official at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) accused career government scientists of plotting against President Trump and told Trump supporters to arm themselves ahead of the November presidential election.
In a Facebook Live video on Sunday, HHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Michael Caputo said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was harboring a “resistance unit” to Trump, The New York Times reported.
The career scientists “haven’t gotten out of their sweatpants except for meetings at coffee shops” to plot “how they’re going to attack Donald Trump,” Caputo said, according to the Times. “There are scientists who work for this government who do not want America to get well, not until after Joe Biden is president.”
Caputo reportedly hosted the event for followers of his personal Facebook page. His comments came after Politico first reported on Friday that top political HHS appointees have been interfering with the publication of CDC’s reports on the coronavirus pandemic.
What Is the Risk of Catching the Coronavirus on a Plane? – Kaiser Health News
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tried to alleviate fears of flying during the pandemic at an event with airline and rental car executives.”The airplanes have just not been vectors when you see spread of the coronavirus,” DeSantis said during a discussion at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport on Aug. 28. “The evidence is the evidence. And I think it’s something that is safe for people to do.”
Is the evidence really so clear?
… In the absence of reliable data, we decided to ask the experts about the possibility of contracting the virus while on a flight. On the whole, airplanes on their own provide generally safe environments when it comes to air quality, but experts said the risk for infection depends largely on policies airlines may have in place regarding passenger seating, masking and boarding time.
According to experts, the risk of catching the coronavirus on a plane is relatively low if the airline is following the procedures laid out by public health experts: enforcing mask compliance, spacing out available seats and screening for sick passengers.
“If you look at the science across all diseases, you see few outbreaks” on planes, Allen said. “It’s not the hotbed of infectivity that people think it is.”
Airlines frequently note that commercial planes are equipped with HEPA filters, the Centers for Disease Control-recommended air filters used in hospital isolation rooms. HEPA filters capture 99.97% of airborne particles and substantially reduce the risk of viral spread. In addition, the air in plane cabins is completely changed over 10 to 12 times per hour, raising the air quality above that of a normal building.
… The real danger of traveling isn’t the flight itself. However, going through security and waiting at the gate for your plane to dock are both likely to put you in close contact with people and increase your chances of contracting the virus. In addition, boarding — when the plane’s ventilation system is not running and people are unable to stay distanced from one another — is one of the riskiest parts of the travel process. “Minimizing this time period is important to reduce exposure,” wrote Corsi. “Get to your seat with your mask on and sit down as quickly as possible.”
Vaccine Makers Keep Safety Details Quiet, Alarming Scientists – New York Times
Researchers say drug companies need to be more open about how vaccine trials are run to reassure Americans who are skittish about getting a coronavirus vaccine.
t’s standard for drug companies to withhold details of clinical trials until after they are completed, tenaciously guarding their intellectual property and competitive edge. But these are extraordinary times, and now there is a growing outcry among independent scientists and public health experts who are pushing the companies to be far more open with the public in the midst of a pandemic that has already killed more than 193,000 people in the United States.
These experts say American taxpayers are entitled to know more since the federal government has committed billions of dollars to vaccine research and to buying the vaccines once they’re approved. And greater transparency could also help bolster faltering public confidence in vaccines at a time when a growing number of Americans fear President Trump will pressure federal regulators to approve a vaccine before it is proved safe and effective.
Americans raid retirement savings to make ends meet – CNBC
Americans are turning to their retirement savings as the coronavirus-induced recession continues to stress household finances.
Nearly 3 in 10 people reduced their savings or stopped saving for retirement altogether due to the economic fallout from Covid-19, according to a FinanceBuzz survey published last month.
Around 30% of people with retirement accounts withdrew money over the last 60 days, pulling out $6,757 on average, according to a MagnifyMoney survey published in May.
No Sign of Second Wave Before Election, but COVID-19 Cases Could Get Worse – Newsweek
Experts have told Newsweek the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. could get worse in the coming months, in the wake of Labor Day celebrations, schools and colleges reopening, and people retreating indoors as temperatures drop. But any potential spike likely won’t peak before the upcoming 2020 election, they said.
The U.S. continues to lead the world for coronavirus diagnoses and deaths, at over 6.5 million and 194,000, respectively, according to Johns Hopkins University. In the past week, the country reported a daily average of over 35,000 cases, down by 17 percent from the average two weeks prior, The New York Times’ U.S. COVID-19 tracker found.
But the downward trend may soon be over. On Friday, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which forecasts coronavirus outbreak trends in the U.S., said it expects a “major surge” in daily cases and deaths in November and December as the seasons change and people have become less vigilant. Since the start of August, people traveled more and wore masks less, it said. The IHME predicts daily deaths will hit almost 3,000 in December, after climbing in late November and December, up from 850 in the week prior to September 11.
Eli Lilly’s RA drug Olumiant helps shorten recovery in hospitalized Covid-19 patients – CNBC
Eli Lilly said its rheumatoid arthritis drug baricitinib was effective in reducing recovery time for hospitalized Covid-19 patients when taken in combination with Gilead’s antiviral remdesivir, Reuters reported.
Lilly said its drug Olumiant, when used in combination remdesivir, cut the amount of time in the hospital by roughly one day versus patients who were treated with remdesivir alone, according to the wire service
New Research Shows Disproportionate Rate of Coronavirus Deaths in Polluted Areas – ProPublica
The type of pollution emitted by many chemical plants in Louisiana’s industrial corridor is correlated with increased coronavirus deaths, according to new peer-reviewed research from SUNY and ProPublica.
COVID-19 can be made more serious — and, in some cases, more deadly — by a specific type of industrial emission called hazardous air pollutants, or HAPs, according to new peer-reviewed research by ProPublica and researchers at the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry. The study, published Friday in the journal Environmental Research Letters, found this association in both rural counties in Louisiana and highly populated communities in New York.
The analysis examined air pollution and coronavirus deaths in the roughly 3,100 U.S. counties and found a close correlation between levels of hazardous pollutants and the per-capita death rate from COVID-19.
[editor’s note: this study shows correlation but not cause and effect]
The Other Way Covid Will Kill: Hunger – New York Times
As the global economy absorbs the most punishing reversal of fortunes since the Great Depression, hunger is on the rise. Those confronting potentially life-threatening levels of so-called food insecurity in the developing world are expected to nearly double this year to 265 million, according to the United Nations World Food Program.
Worldwide, the number of children younger than 5 caught in a state of so-called wasting — their weight so far below normal that they face an elevated risk of death, along with long-term health and developmental problems — is likely to grow by nearly seven million this year, or 14 percent, according to a recent paper published in The Lancet, a medical journal.
The largest numbers of vulnerable communities are concentrated in South Asia and Africa, especially in countries that are already confronting trouble, from military conflict and extreme poverty to climate-related afflictions like drought, flooding and soil erosion.
At least for now, the unfolding tragedy falls short of a famine, which is typically set off by a combination of war and environmental disaster. Food remains widely available in most of the world, though prices have climbed in many countries, as fear of the virus disrupts transportation links, and as currencies fall in value, increasing the costs of imported items.
Saving for Sunnier Days – Franklin Templeton
The second pulse of our Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study brings important confirmations of our first results, as well as some powerful new insights:
- Household confidence seems to have found a floor, but Americans maintain a cautious attitude: three-quarters of those who can save plan to keep accumulating savings over the next six months, and less than one-third already intend to spend more on basic goods and services.
- Our second pulse also shows that development of an effective vaccine or treatment would have the greatest impact on people’s willingness to fully resume normal spending habits, while even a marked decline in local new cases and fatalities would have a smaller impact on confidence.
- Most Americans, across party lines, support a new round of government financial support; but we find no evidence that larger enhanced unemployment benefits would discourage work, as a majority of people would prefer the greater long-term security of employment.
Our latest results highlight three encouraging signs that household confidence has at least found a floor:
- Americans’ willingness to engage in a range of activities has remained stable between July and August. The July resurgence in new cases does not seem to have caused a sustained retrenchment in activity, which bodes well given that new cases have returned on a declining path over the course of August.
- Mask wearing has continued to increase across the country, continuing a trend that Gallup data identified since April-May, with only marginal differences between Republicans and Democrats.
- Perhaps relatedly, a rising share of Americans feel confident that they can protect themselves from COVID-19 while out in public—though the share is still no higher than one-third.
At the same time, a strong majority of Americans support continued government help. Over 80% of Democrats as well as 64% of Republicans and 66% of Independents are in favor of another one-time Economic Impact Payment, with a majority across party lines favoring a payment of $900 or more. This strong level of support likely reflects recognition that the economy still faces a major but temporary difficulty.
RESPONDENTS WERE ASKED: DO YOU THINK THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT SEND ANOTHER ONE-TIME ECONOMIC IMPACT PAYMENT TO ALL QUALIFIED ADULTS (DIRECT PAYMENT BASED ON INCOME LEVEL)?
Source: Franklin Templeton-Gallup Economics of Recovery Study. Results from this study are based on self-administered web surveys from an opt-in sample provided by Dynata of 5,000 US adults, aged 18 or older. For details about how Dynata recruits respondents in the United States, please see http://info.dynata.com/rs/105-ZDT-791/images/Dynata_Panel%20Book_2.19.pdf. The survey was conducted between August 3 and August 11, 2020.
Pfizer, Trump, Fauci Give Timelines for New Coronavirus Vaccine – Newsweek
President Donald Trump, Albert Bourla, the CEO of Pfizer, and Dr. Anthony Fauci all offered similar timelines for when a new coronavirus vaccine could reach the public, albeit with some distinctions between their estimates.
A new coronavirus vaccine is on track to come to market in record time, in part because of technology and in part because of the Trump administration’s investment in proactively manufacturing doses. Of the three men, Trump promoted the most aggressive timeline for a vaccine, saying it could be delivered before the election.
“We remain on track to deliver a vaccine before the end of the year and maybe even before November 1st,” Trump said during a September 4 briefing. “We think we can probably have it sometime during the month of October.”
Not everyone in China will need to get vaccinated against Covid-19, according to the country’s top medical official, as Beijing looks to prioritize frontline workers and high-risk populations in a move that underscores rising confidence among policy-makers of their ability to contain the virus.
“Since the first wave of Covid-19 appeared in Wuhan, China has already survived the impact of Covid-19 several times,” Gao Fu, director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said at a vaccine summit in the city of Shenzhen on Saturday, according to state-run news agency China News Service.
The question of vaccinating the public was one of balancing “risks and benefits,” he added, pointing to factors like cost and potential side effects. There isn’t currently a need for mass vaccination at this stage — though that could change if another serious outbreak takes place, Gao said.
The policy marks China apart from many Western governments, most notably Australia, that have outlined plans to introduce mass public vaccination drives.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
At Least 25 Indian Lawmakers Test Positive For Coronavirus As Parliament Reopens
‘Our Body, Our Choice’: Thousands Join Anti-Mask Rallies in Canada
U.S. Woman Accused of Infecting Over 50 People With Coronavirus in Bavaria
Anti-Maskers Ordered to Dig Graves for COVID-19 Victims in Indonesia
Herd Immunity ‘Definitely Not’ Sweden’s Goal for Coronavirus
Israel to Shut Down Nation for Three Weeks to Contain COVID Spread
COVID-19 hit G-20 economies four times harder than financial crisis: OECD
Business execs warn of vaccine nationalism, ask leaders to work together
Austria experiencing second virus wave, says chancellor
CATHAY PACIFIC SAYS IT’S LOSING UP TO $258 MILLION A MONTH AS PASSENGERS DROP NEARLY 99%
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Florida contact tracing is a hot mess
Pfizer and BioNTech said they are increasing the number of participants in their phase III trial from 30,000 to 44,000.
Mask Wearing is ‘Demonic Ritual’ Says Former Missouri Gov. Candidate
Massachusetts School Forced to Start Remotely as Police Bust Crowded Party
Federal judge rules Pennsylvania’s coronavirus orders are unconstitutional
NY cancels traditional Macy’s Thanksgiving parade, will hold virtual event
High school parties force some Northeast schools to delay the return to classes.
Delta to tap its SkyMiles frequent flyer program to raise $6.5 billion
NFL threatens to discipline teams that don’t follow face covering protocols properly
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Households’ Financial Expectations Improve but Remain Largely below Pre-COVID Levels In August 2020
Firms Start With Fewer Employees Over Last 25 Years
Temporary To Permanent Job Losses
COVID19 Update: US Vs EU27 12September 2020
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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