Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 5.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 19.6 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Unexpected Results in New COVID-19 ‘Cytokine Storm’ Data
- Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was ‘superspreading event’ that cost public health $12.2 billion
- When COVID-19 Really Is ‘Just Another Flu’
- AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in participant in the U.K.
- One in five young adults hospitalized for Covid-19 need intensive care, research shows
- The FDA’s new app for frontline doctors could help discover Covid-19 treatments faster
- Fish oil product will be tested to see whether it can prevent or reduce complications from COVID-19 in older adults
- The US needs 200 million tests a month to reel in Covid-19 pandemic, report says
- What Companies Have Put in Place to Reopen the Workplace After COVID-19
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 09 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 09 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 36,020 | 6,330,000 | 260,310 | 27,610,000 | 13.8% | 22.9% |
| Deaths** | 471 | 189,679 | 4,927 | 898,088 | 9.6% | 21.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.78* | 281.87* | ||||
* as of 06 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Unexpected Results in New COVID-19 ‘Cytokine Storm’ Data – Medscape
[editor’s note: this post is 100% opposite of “common COVID knowledge”. Cytokine storm was a major worry for me and this post sort of snuffs out that worry]
The immune system overactivation known as a “cytokine storm” does not play a major role in more severe COVID-19 outcomes, according to unexpected findings in new research. The findings stand in direct contrast to many previous reports.
“We were indeed surprised by the results of our study,” senior study author Peter Pickkers, MD, PhD, told Medscape Medical News.
In a unique approach, Pickkers and colleagues compared cytokine levels in critically ill people with COVID-19 to those in patients with bacterial sepsis, trauma, and after cardiac arrest.
“For the first time, we measured the cytokines in different diseases using the same methods. Our results convincingly show that the circulating cytokine concentrations are not higher, but lower, compared to other diseases,” said Pickkers, who is affiliated with the Department of Intensive Care Medicine at Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen, the Netherlands.
The team’s research was published online on September 3 in a letter in JAMA.
A large, Phase 3 study testing a Covid-19 vaccine being developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford at dozens of sites across the U.S. has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.
A spokesperson for AstraZeneca, a frontrunner in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine, said in a statement that the company’s “standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data.”
In a follow-up statement, AstraZeneca said it initiated the study hold. The nature of the adverse reaction and when it happened were not immediately known, though the participant is expected to recover, according to an individual familiar with the matter.
The spokesperson described the pause as “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.” The spokesperson also said that the company is “working to expedite the review of the single event to minimize any potential impact on the trial timeline.”
An individual familiar with the development said researchers had been told the hold was placed on the trial out of “an abundance of caution.” A second individual familiar with the matter, who also spoke on condition of anonymity, said the finding is having an impact on other AstraZeneca vaccine trials underway — as well as on the clinical trials being conducted by other vaccine manufacturers.
[editor’s note: Fauci: AstraZeneca pause in vaccine production ‘not uncommon’]
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was ‘superspreading event’ that cost public health $12.2 billion – The Hill
The analysis tracked anonymized cellphone data from the 10-day event that showed “smartphone pings from non-residents” and “foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially.” Stay-at-home hours for local residents fell during the same time period.
Based on the increase in case count, the researchers group, estimated that cases connected to the gathering resulted in $12 billion in public health costs, not including the costs associated with any deaths that might be tied to cases from the event. That dollar amount is based on another estimation that an average of $46,000 is spent on each patient who tests positive for COVID-19.
Researchers concluded that more than 266,000 cases were tied to the event attended by more than 460,000 individuals.
Health officials have linked at least one death to the rally: a male biker in his 60s with underlying conditions. At least 260 cases in 11 states have been officially connected to the rally by government officials.
Fish oil product for hypertriglyceridemia will be tested to see whether it can prevent or reduce complications from viral respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19 in older adults with heart disease. – Yahoo
Amarin announced on Friday that Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) is initiating a trial to study the potential of its lead product Vascepa to be used as a treatment to prevent or reduce the risk of complications from viral respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19 in older adults with heart disease.
Biotech Amarin (AMRN) said that that the MITIGATE COVID-19 study, will test the effects of Vascepa on viral upper respiratory infection (URI) rates and clinical outcomes, especially involving acute respiratory SARS-CoV-2 infection, in adults with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who are at elevated risk of experiencing moderate to severe COVID-19.
The trial will involve 1500 US patients aged 50 years or older with ASCVD and no prior history of confirmed COVID-19, who will receive 4 grams per day of Vascepa for a minimum of 6 months. The co-primary study endpoints are the rate of moderate to severe laboratory-confirmed viral URI, including COVID-19 and influenza, prompting urgent care encounters, emergency department visits, or hospitalization. A control group will consist of 15,000 adults meeting the same eligibility criteria who will be passively followed through KPNC’s electronic health record system for outcome ascertainment.
Are masks the new “variolation” to immunize against COVID-19? – The New England Journal of Medicine
[editor’s note: per wikipedia – Variolation or inoculation was the method first used to immunize an individual against smallpox (Variola) with material taken from a patient or a recently variolated individual, in the hope that a mild, but protective, infection would result.]
As SARS-CoV-2 continues its global spread, it’s possible that one of the pillars of Covid-19 pandemic control — universal facial masking — might help reduce the severity of disease and ensure that a greater proportion of new infections are asymptomatic. If this hypothesis is borne out, universal masking could become a form of “variolation” that would generate immunity and thereby slow the spread of the virus in the United States and elsewhere, as we await a vaccine.
One important reason for population-wide facial masking became apparent in March, when reports started to circulate describing the high rates of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding from the noses and mouths of patients who were presymptomatic or asymptomatic — shedding rates equivalent to those among symptomatic patients.1 Universal facial masking seemed to be a possible way to prevent transmission from asymptomatic infected people. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) therefore recommended on April 3 that the public wear cloth face coverings in areas with high rates of community transmission — a recommendation that has been unevenly followed across the United States.
Past evidence related to other respiratory viruses indicates that facial masking can also protect the wearer from becoming infected, by blocking viral particles from entering the nose and mouth. Epidemiologic investigations conducted around the world — especially in Asian countries that became accustomed to population-wide masking during the 2003 SARS pandemic — have suggested that there is a strong relationship between public masking and pandemic control. Recent data from Boston demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 infections decreased among health care workers after universal masking was implemented in municipal hospitals in late March.
[editor’s note: this article deserves a full read – we have gone a long way since the experts said masks did not work at the beginning of the pandemic]
The FDA’s new app for frontline doctors could help discover Covid-19 treatments faster – NPR
Eating disorders are thriving during the pandemic. Hotline calls to the National Eating Disorders Association are up 70-80% in recent months. For many, eating is a form of control — a coping mechanism tied to stress. Food scarcity and stockpiling behavior can trigger anxieties about eating, or overeating among some.
“We know that eating disorders have a strong link to trauma,” says Claire Mysko is CEO of NEDA. “Many people with eating disorders have past experiences with trauma, and this [pandemic era] is a collective trauma.”
It’s also a lethal threat. Eating disorders have the second-highest mortality rate of any psychiatric diagnosis — outranked only by opioid use disorder.
A survey in International Journal of Eating Disorders in July found 62% of people in the U.S. with anorexia experienced a worsening of symptoms as the pandemic hit. And nearly a third of Americans with binge-eating disorder, which is far more common, reported an increase in episodes.
One in five young adults hospitalized for Covid-19 need intensive care, research shows – CNN
Coronavirus can hit may young adults hard, new research shows.
One in five young adults hospitalized for Covid-19 needs intensive care and 2.7% of them die, according to research published Wednesday in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine. The researchers said that young adults with certain health issues could be just as susceptible to the virus as middle-aged adults without them.
A team of researchers from Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston studied 3,222 Covid-19 patients between 18 and 34 who were treated at 419 US hospitals. About 21% of these patients ended up in the intensive care unit and 10% needed a ventilator.
Eighty-eight patients, or 2.7%, died. The researchers said that this in-hospital death rate is lower than the rate reported for older adults with Covid-19. For comparison, they note that the rate is about double the death rate for young adults with heart attacks.
When COVID-19 Really Is ‘Just Another Flu’ – MedPage
[editor’s note: this is a food-for-thought article which deserves a full read]
It’s hard to imagine a day when people will be as nonchalant about getting their COVID-19 vaccine as they are about getting their flu shot, but it is one possible future reality, experts say.
Each year in the U.S., influenza kills between 12,000 and 60,000 people, and puts some 140,000 to 810,000 people in the hospital, according to the CDC. But that’s a level we’ve come to live with — there are no calls for social distancing or mask wearing, no shuttering the economy, to prevent transmission.
“Because influenza is so common, people figure it’s no big deal. It’s like driving a car. People will die, but not me because I’m a good driver. I’m in good health,” said Pedro Piedra, MD, a respiratory virus specialist at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.
Flu is generally survivable, with a population-wide mortality rate of 0.1%. Combine that with the varying efficacy of seasonal influenza vaccination — from 30% in a bad year to 70% in a good year, according to Martin Blaser, MD, an infectious disease expert at Rutgers University in New Jersey — and the laissez-faire attitude about influenza is hardly surprising. The 40% of adults who are vaccinated each year is largely driven by the 65+ age group, according to CDC data.
“One might argue, shouldn’t we be making a big investment in a better flu vaccine to save all those lives?” Blaser said. “I think the answer is yes. But that requires two things: a better vaccine and more people taking the vaccine.”
Some experts think this question may be relevant to the future of COVID-19 as well.
The US needs 200 million tests a month to reel in Covid-19 pandemic, report says – CNN
Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, and Dr. Jerome Adams, US Surgeon General, pledged in a Senate hearing Wednesday they would get the Covid-19 vaccine if and when one is deemed safe.
“I am ready to roll up my sleeve as soon as they say it’s effective,” Collins said, when asked if he would get the vaccine in public view.
The two took questions from senators during the Senate Health Committee hearing on vaccines. Adams and Collins assured the senators and the American public that the vaccine process was being led by science, not partisan politics.
“I want the American people to hear me say this: There will be no shortcuts. This vaccine will be safe. It will be effective. Or it won’t get moved along,” Adams said. “And when a vaccine is either approved or authorized by the FDA, I and my family will be in line to get it.”
Safeguarding Measures Organizations Have Put in Place to Reopen the Workplace After COVID-19 – The Conference Board
Many businesses hoped to reopen their workplaces after Labor Day, but a new survey of managers and executives suggests a long, uncertain road ahead. 35 percent say the timing of when their companies will reopen the workplace is unknown.
The Conference Board survey also found that only about 60 percent of companies have consulted their workers about their levels of readiness and comfort in returning to the workplace. In addition, despite talk of a looming vaccine and its benefits, just 5 percent say its wide availability would be a significant factor in the timing of a return to the workplace. The findings also reveal that, while most companies have mandated certain protocols for employees arriving at work, only 67 percent are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks.
The survey polled more than 1,100 businesspersons across 20 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). The respondents – primarily C-suite executives, vice presidents, and senior managers – represent a cross-section of industries. The online survey was fielded from August 19th -26th. Key findings include:
Over a third of companies have not set a date for reopening.
- Over a third of companies surveyed, 35 percent, say their reopening date is still unknown.
- 39 percent of companies plan to reopen by the first quarter of 2021.
- 13 percent of companies have remained open throughout the pandemic.
- The highest levels of uncertainty: Miami (46%), Seattle (43%), San Diego (42%), Washington, DC (41%), and San Francisco (41%).
For reopening, a vaccine is not top of mind.
- Just 5 percent thought the widespread availability of a vaccine would be a significant factor in the timing of a return to the workplace.
- This low ranking likely reflects concern about the viability of a vaccine with a significantly shorter clinical trial time. It also likely reflects concern about the legal implications for any corporate mandate to get the vaccine as a condition for returning.
The most and least frequent actions businesses are taking to safeguard their workers:
The most frequent:
- Purchasing safety equipment (e.g., masks, thermometers, contactless entry devices, sanitization devices) (82 percent).
- Creating new workplace policies requiring social distancing (e.g., limiting size of in-person meetings or usage of common areas) (80 percent).
- Preparing workspace for return of workers (e.g., deep cleaning or disinfecting) (78 percent).
The least frequent:
- Providing childcare options for workers (e.g., on-site childcare, flexible scheduling to meet childcare needs) (19 percent).
- Implementing safety measures and/or policies specifically for workers taking public transportation (e.g., requiring more frequent screening or providing extra safety supplies for workers who use public transportation or shared shuttles) (13 percent).
Do employees feel comfortable returning? Only about 60 percent of companies have even checked.
- About 60 percent of businesses chose to survey workers about their levels of readiness and comfort in returning.
On the upside, those businesses that did survey workers were more likely to put all safeguard measures in place, including top employee concerns.
- “Companies that sought worker sentiment about their comfort levels were more likely to implement safety measures specifically for workers taking public transportation, revise work-from-home policies, and provide childcare options,” said Rebecca Ray, Executive Vice President of Human Capital at The Conference Board. “Notably, these top worker concerns were low on the overall list of safeguards that organizations are implementing, indicating that they are more important to employees than employers may realize. This disconnect reinforces the need for companies to receive buy-in from their most precious resource – their people – especially about matters as consequential as this one.”
Less than half of companies have enacted or plan to enact staggered shifts or staggered timing.
- Despite fairly consistent health organization guidance regarding social distancing, only 46 percent planned for staggered shifts within the workday or work week to reduce worker contact.
- Moreover, only 46 percent plan to create staggered timing for business units or workers to reenter the workplace.
Two-thirds of companies are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks.
- 67 percent of companies are requiring screening, testing, or temperature checks for returning workers.
- Such actions may not have universal backing due to the fear of litigation – specifically relating to who is asked to come back into the workplace – along with the efficacy of these protocols.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
French PM tests negative for COVID after contact at Tour de France
Ukrainian church leader who blamed COVID-19 on gay marriage tests positive for virus
Positive Covid tests in no-lockdown Sweden hit lowest rate since pandemic began
India May Soon Overtake U.S. To Have Most Coronavirus Cases in World
Britain bans gatherings of more than six people.
Netherlands records highest daily Covid-19 infections in months
Phase 3 Clinical Trials Of Sputnik V [Russia vaccine] Coronavirus Vaccine To Start Today
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Differentiating COVID-19 vs Flu Symptoms in Children
Dangers Behind Anti-maskers and Anti-vaxxers: How to Combat Both
Exercise and Diet Are More Important Than Ever With Virus at Large
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy: Economic Impact Has Been ‘Staggering Across The Board’
Dartmouth quarantines 23 students over ‘serious offense’ against COVID-19 rules
Illinois university quarantines entire student body for two weeks
Asked if he was frustrated by Trump’s unmasked rallies, Fauci says ‘we want to set an example.’
Amazon plans to hire 33,000 corporate and technology workers across the U.S. in the coming months.
Amtrak CEO William Flynn told a U.S. House subcommittee that the rail company needs about $4.9 billion to avoid looming cuts to staff and service,
Marriott to lay off 17% of corporate staff next month
So your kid has a Covid-19 symptom. What do you do now?
‘Door-To-Door Trick-Or-Treating Is Not Allowed’: LA County Releases Guidelines For Halloween
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Monthly Budget Review: Year-to-Date Budget Deficit Is $3 Trillion
July 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Improved But Remains In Contraction
Adjuting The Unemployment Thermometer
Did The BLS Count 7 Million Jobs That Didn’t Exist?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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