Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 3.2 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.2 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Why the real unemployment rate is likely over 11%
- China Claims Coronavirus Vaccine Can Protect Against All Known Mutations
- Air purifier that kills 99.9% of the coronavirus sees surge in global demand
- Coronavirus may linger on chilled salmon for a week
- Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked to More Than 260,000 COVID Cases
- South Korea’s Celltrion to begin commercial production of COVID-19 antibody drug
- Voters skeptical about potential COVID-19 vaccine and say that one this year would be rushed
- Gap narrows between those who see pandemic as more of a health crisis and those focused on economy: poll
- From shipping containers to security concerns, a Covid-19 vaccine supply chain takes shape
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 08 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 08 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 38,522 | 6,300,000 | 264,071 | 27,370,000 | 14.6% | 23.0% |
| Deaths** | 267 | 189,208 | 3,745 | 893,084 | 7.1% | 21.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 0.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 3.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.85* | 276.47* | ||||
* as of 04 Sep 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The gap between U.S. adults who see the coronavirus pandemic as more of a health crisis and those focusing on the economy has narrowed within the past two months, a poll released Tuesday found.
The poll, from NBC and SurveyMonkey, found that a slight majority of respondents — 52 percent — said they see the coronavirus mostly as a health crisis, compared to 47 percent who see the pandemic as more of an economic issue.
A poll released in early July determined that 56 percent of participants saw the pandemic as primarily a health crisis, while 43 percent identified it as mostly an economic mess.
Participants also are now more likely to consider business reopenings to be happening more slowly than in the July poll. A majority — 54 percent — said in the new poll they were worried businesses were reopening too quickly, while 42 percent said they were concerned they were opening too slowly.
Air purifier that kills 99.9% of the coronavirus sees surge in global demand – CNBC
- Hong Kong-based Aurabeat has created an air purifier that can eliminate over 99.9% of Covid-19.
- CEO Phil Yuen says the company has seen a significant surge in global demand since launching the FDA-certified air filtration device.
- Yuen believes the device can complement coronavirus precautions like mask-wearing and social distancing.
- The air purifier could provide additional protection in residential spaces where people are less likely to wear masks.
Voters skeptical about potential COVID-19 vaccine and say that one this year would be rushed – CBS
Skepticism about getting a coronavirus vaccine has grown since earlier this summer, and most voters say if a vaccine were made available this year, their first thought would be that it was rushed through without enough testing.
Just 21% of voters nationwide now say they would get a vaccine as soon as possible if one became available at no cost, down from 32% in late July. Most would consider it but would wait to see what happens to others before getting one.
For the past few months, Joachim Kuhn has scrambled to rework his factories and rapidly ramp up production of temperature-controlled containers — a critical but often overlooked part of the global supply chain that will be needed to deliver Covid-19 vaccines around the world.
Container supplies are among the countless challenges facing companies that are part of a vast, behind-the-scenes global network planning to quickly transport huge numbers of Covid-19 vaccines. And each link in the proverbial chain — from finding a spot to keep doses sufficiently cold to protecting them from heists — is equally important in order to ensure enough vaccines reach their far-flung destinations as quickly as possible.
Pandemic sends the majority of young adults back to living with mom and dad – CNBC
- The coronavirus crisis and economic downturn has been particularly hard for those just starting out.
- For the first time ever, more than half of all young adults have moved back in with mom and dad, a survey finds.
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) can still occur in children with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. – Lancet
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C), also known as pediatric inflammatory multisystem syndrome, is a new dangerous childhood disease that is temporally associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We aimed to describe the typical presentation and outcomes of children diagnosed with this hyperinflammatory condition.
… Our search yielded 39 observational studies (n = 662 patients). While 71·0% of children (n = 470) were admitted to the intensive care unit, only 11 deaths (1·7%) were reported. Average length of hospital stay was 7·9 ± 0·6 days. Fever (100%, n = 662), abdominal pain or diarrhea (73·7%, n = 488), and vomiting (68·3%, n = 452) were the most common clinical presentation. Serum inflammatory, coagulative, and cardiac markers were considerably abnormal. Mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation were necessary in 22·2% (n = 147) and 4·4% (n = 29) of patients, respectively. An abnormal echocardiograph was observed in 314 of 581 individuals (54·0%) with depressed ejection fraction (45·1%, n = 262 of 581) comprising the most common aberrancy.
Interpretation
Multisystem inflammatory syndrome is a new pediatric disease associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that is dangerous and potentially lethal. With prompt recognition and medical attention, most children will survive but the long-term outcomes from this condition are presently unknown.
South Korea’s Celltrion to begin commercial production of COVID-19 antibody drug – Reuters
South Korea’s Celltrion Inc will begin commercial production of its experimental treatment for COVID-19 this month, it said on Tuesday, as it pushes ahead with clinical trials of the antibody drug.
The company said it planned to make a request soon to regulators for emergency use authorisation of the drug, but that it would start mass production – likely to amount to around 1 million doses – before receiving that approval.
The treatment became the country’s first COVID-19 antibody drug to be tested on humans after receiving regulatory approval in July for clinical trials.
Dr. Fauci says it’s ‘unlikely’ a coronavirus vaccine will be ready by U.S. election – CNBC
White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday a coronavirus vaccine probably won’t be ready by the U.S. presidential election even as the Centers for Disease and Prevention asks states to ready distribution facilities by Nov. 1.
Fauci told PBS NewsHour’s Judy Woodruff that it’s more likely a vaccine will be ready by “the end of the year” as drug companies Moderna and Pfizer race to complete patient enrollment for their late-stage vaccine trials by the end of September.
“It’s unlikely we’ll have a definitive answer” by Nov. 3, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said.
Coronavirus may linger on chilled salmon for a week: research – The Hill
Research conducted in China indicates the novel coronavirus may linger on chilled salmon for more than a week.
Scientists at the South China Agricultural University and Guangdong Academy of Agricultural Sciences in Guangzhou found evidence the virus can survive for eight days at 39 degrees Fahrenheit, the approximate temperature at which fish are transported.
The research, released Sunday, has not yet been published or peer-reviewed.
“SARS-CoV-2-contaminated fish from one country can be easily transported to another country within one week, thus serving as one of the sources for international transmission,” the researchers said.
“Different from vegetables and other food, fish have to be transported, stored and sold under a low-temperature environment,” the report states. “Fish are generally sold in quarters having temperatures much lower than regular room temperature. This means that virus attached on fish skin and sold in fish or seafood markets can survive for a long time.”
“This calls for strict inspection or detection of SARS-CoV-2 as a critical new protocol in fish importation and exportation before allowing sales,” researchers added.
China’s customs agency said in a report Tuesday that six of more than 500,000 imported meat, packaging and container samples tested positive for the virus, according to Bloomberg News.
[editor’s note: The International Commission on Microbiological Specifications for Foods (ICMSF) looked at the evidence that coronavirus might be carried on food or its packaging and found very little.]
Post-COVID Myocarditis Is a Worry – MedPage
It’s not often that myocarditis trends on Twitter, but cardiac MRI findings after recovery from acute COVID-19 symptoms have rocketed to public attention for their impact on decisions being made about sports.
One (as yet unpublished) study found myocarditis in 15% of college athletes who tested positive, largely after mild or no symptoms. A more alarming statement by Penn State football’s team doctor put that rate at 30% to 35%, but that claim has since been walked back.
Before that was a German cardiac MRI study in non-athletes that turned up lingering myocardial inflammation and other cardiac abnormalities in 78 of 100 people. While the study was subsequently corrected, the message remained the same: even a mild course of COVID-19 in relatively healthy people could leave a mark on the heart.
That study, too, received an enormous amount of attention due, in part, to its use by colleges and sports programs to determine the future of the fall athletics season.
“We did expect high uptake, but we didn’t expect that much of a focus,” said Eike Nagel, MD, PhD, of University Hospital Frankfurt in Germany, who was the senior author on the German MRI paper. “A lot of papers get downloaded 10 times, maybe 20 times; this paper got downloaded 550,000 times.”
Myocarditis is the top concern around COVID-19 for college athletics, due to the risk it poses for cardiac arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death.
… Newly released European Society of Cardiology guidelines suggested that people with myocarditis should hold off on vigorous exercise likely for 3 to 6 months. And based on “pretty much no data,” it makes sense to apply that to COVID-related cardiac inflammation and fibrosis too, Nagel said.
Sturgis Motorcycle Rally Linked to More Than 260,000 COVID Cases, Economists Estimate – Newsweek
The Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota has been linked to more than 260,000 coronavirus cases in the U.S., according to a recent study by a group of economists.
The rally, which occurred between August 7 and August 16, drew an estimated 462,182 people from around the country. Local news reports suggest that, in addition to the large crowds, there was little mask-wearing and social distancing among attendees, causing health experts to fear it would become a COVID-19 “super-spreader” event.
In a report published by the IZA Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn, Germany, four economists used anonymized cellphone data, local health records and data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to conclude that an estimated 266,796 coronavirus cases could be attributed to the rally.
Limited virus testing for children has created a Covid-19 ‘blind spot.’ – New York Times
As child care centers and schools reopen in the United States, parents are encountering another virus testing bottleneck: Few sites will test children. Even in large cities with dozens of test sites, parents are driving long distances and calling multiple centers to track down one accepting children.
The age policies at testing sites reflect a range of concerns, including differences in health insurance, medical privacy rules, holes in test approval, and fears of squirmy or shrieking children.
The limited testing hampers schools’ ability to quickly isolate and trace virus cases among students. It could also create a new burden on working parents, with some schools and child care centers requiring symptomatic children to test negative before rejoining class.
“There is no good reason not to do it in kids,” said Sean O’Leary, a Colorado pediatrician who sits on the American Academy of Pediatrics’ committee on infectious diseases. “It’s a matter of people not being comfortable with doing it.”
Why the real unemployment rate is likely over 11% – CNBC
- The official U.S. unemployment rate fell to 8.4% in August, from 10.2% in July.
- That number may significantly understate the true rate, however, according to some economists. The real figure may be higher than 11% when accounting for various factors; .[e.g. misclassified workers as being employed but absent from work instead of unemployed on temporary layoff; accounting for people who dropped out of the labor force]
- That would mean the country is still in the throes of an unemployment crisis worse than any time in the post-second World War era.
China Claims Coronavirus Vaccine Can Protect Against All Known Mutations – Newsweek
The developer of a potential coronavirus vaccine in China has claimed it can protect against all known mutations of the virus.
The vaccine being developed by the company CanSino Biological Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology at the Academy of Military Medical Sciences is based on a type of virus called adenovirus Ad5 to deliver coronavirus genes into cells. This prompts the cells to create viral proteins and trigger an immune response, without the virus replicating.
Phase 1 and 2 trials on the vaccine published in the scientific journal The Lancet earlier this year suggested the vaccine is safe and could trigger an immune response in people.
The vaccine would be effective against all known mutations, Chen Wei, an academic at the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Institute of Military Medicine told China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, according to the Global Times newspaper, which is also state-run.
Pfizer-BioNTech coronavirus vaccine could be ready for approval by mid-October – The Hill
Pfizer is one of the companies chosen to receive federal funding as part of President Trump’s Operation Warp Speed, an initiative to expedite the development of an effective coronavirus vaccine.
In July, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced the signing of an agreement worth $1.95 billion with Pfizer to produce 100 million doses of its vaccine candidate.
Sahin told reporters that he believes the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will grant BNT162 an emergency use authorization to be given to ill patients. He added that the company has high confidence in its drug primarily due to the safety data coming out of clinical trials. So far, the drug has produced favorable antibody results in a diverse set of patients.
“We believe that we have a safe product and we believe that we will be able to show efficacy,” Sahin said.
Side effects have been minimal, with only slight fevers, drowsiness and headaches.
Despite Sahin’s optimism, other officials are cautioning against this extremely hopeful timeline. Anthony Fauci of the White House Coronavirus Task Force has repeatedly estimated that a successful candidate will emerge toward the end of 2020 or beginning of 2021.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘At Any Cost’: Japanese, IOC Officials Insist Olympics Will Happen In 2021
India May Soon Overtake U.S. To Have Most Coronavirus Cases in World
Britain Faces COVID-19 Spike as Cases Jump in Young People Across Europe
‘The lockdown killed my father’: Farmer suicides add to India’s virus misery.
China’s leader declares success in suppressing the country’s outbreak.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Black patients accessed telemedicine at 40% the rate of white patients.
A Doctor Went to His Own Employer for a COVID-19 Antibody Test. It Cost $10,984.
9 Drugmakers Sign Safety Pledge In Rush To Develop Coronavirus Vaccine
Teenage COVID-19 Patient Raped on Way to Hospital by Bogus Paramedic
Florida Theme Parks Hit Capacity as Labor Day Crowds Flock to Resorts
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
July 2020 Consumer Credit Continues To Slow
June 2020 Loan Performance: Serious Delinquencies Spike as Financial Pressures Build for Homeowners
August 2020 Small Business Optimism Rebounds, Exceeding Historical Average
Where People Are Most Optimistic About The Vaccine Race
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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