Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved and squeaked into expansion this week.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline was immediate. In theory, this index is now indicating that in the third quarter of 2021 the economy should be in expansion.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Edges Up
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__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 138.7, while the growth rate increased to 0.7%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s recent performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The July economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth improved but continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy’s rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth declined and remains in contraction.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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