Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 7.4 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 7.8 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual States – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Scientists see downsides to top COVID-19 vaccines from Russia, China
- Blood clots: A major problem in severe Covid-19
- 55% of Homeowners Regret Taking Out a Mortgage During the Pandemic
- The effect of Covid-19 on crime
- Emergency authorisation of COVID-19 vaccines needs great care: WHO
- $250 million contract meant to ‘defeat despair and inspire hope’ on coronavirus
- Face mask sales soar as Swedes eye potential guideline change
- Potential coronavirus vaccine from Novavax shows positive early signs
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load – and outdoor activities are generally very safe.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 01 September 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 01 September 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,443 | 6,030,000 | 262,706 | 25,510,000 | 15.8% | 23.6% |
| Deaths** | 529 | 183,598 | 3,990 | 850,902 | 13.3% | 21.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 3.3% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.58* | 253.47* | ||||
* as of 28 Aug 2020
** evidently several States included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
94% of Covid-19 deaths had underlying medical conditions – ABC News
The Centers for Disease Control released information showing how many people who died from COVID-19 had comorbidities or underlying conditions as they are sometimes referred to by doctors.
According to the CDC, comorbidity is defined as: ” more than one disease or condition is present in the same person at the same time. Conditions described as comorbidities are often chronic or long-term conditions. Other names to describe comorbid conditions are coexisting or co-occurring conditions and sometimes also “multimorbidity” or “multiple chronic conditions.”
Comorbidity and underlying conditions can both be used to describe conditions that exist in one person at the same time. These can also contribute to a persons death who has been diagnosed with COVID-19.
“Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”
The CDC says people need to always social distance and perform best practices when it comes to staying safe during the COVID-19 pandemic.
[editor’s note: I would not interpret this article as meaning only 6% of the people actually died of coronavirus – life is not that simple. If you get killed in a car accident and you had been diagnosed with a terminal illness – the cause of death is not the terminal illness. However, it does put into context that COVID-19 kills people with certain types of underlying health conditions]
Comorbidities from the CDC – CDC
[editor’s note: this is a table supporting the above post]
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities,
Updated August 26, 2020
Number of Conditions Age Group Conditions Contributing to Deaths where COVID-19 was listed on the death certificate1 ICD-10 codes All ages Total COVID-19 deaths2, as of 8/22/2020 U071 161,392 Respiratory diseases – Influenza and pneumonia J09-J18 68,004 Chronic lower respiratory diseases J40-J47 13,780 Adult respiratory distress syndrome J80 21,899 Respiratory failure J96 54,803 Respiratory arrest R09.2 3,282 Other diseases of the respiratory system J00-J06, J20-J39, J60-J70, J81-J86, J90-J95, J97-J99, U04 5,664 Circulatory diseases – Hypertensive diseases I10-I15 35,272 Ischemic heart disease I20-I25 18,103 Cardiac arrest I46 20,210 Cardiac arrhythmia I44, I45, I47-I49 9,812 Heart failure I50 10,562 Cerebrovascular diseases I60-I69 7,653 Other diseases of the circulatory system I00-I09, I26-I43, I51, I52, I70-I99 8,743 Sepsis A40-A41 14,053 Malignant neoplasms C00-C97 7,415 Diabetes E10-E14 25,936 Obesity E65-E68 5,614 Alzheimer disease G30 5,608 Vascular and unspecified dementia F01, F03 18,497 Renal failure N17-N19 13,693 Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events S00-T98, V01-X59, X60-X84, X85-Y09, Y10-Y36, Y40-Y89, U01-U03 5,133 All other conditions and causes (residual) A00-A39, A42-B99, D00-E07, E15-E64, E70-E90, F00, F02, F04-G26, G31-H95, K00-K93, L00-M99, N00-N16, N20-N99, O00-O99, P00-P96, Q00-Q99, R00-R08, R09.0, R09.1, R09.3, R09.8, R10-R99 77,990 NOTE: Number of conditions reported in this table are tabulated from deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data for this table are derived from a cut of the NVSS database taken at a particular time, separate from other surveillance tables on this page which are tabulated on the date of update. As a result, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in this table may not match other surveillance tables on this page.
*Data during the period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more.
1Conditions contributing to the death were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICDndash;10). Deaths involving more than one condition (e.g., deaths involving both diabetes and respiratory arrest) were counted in both totals. To avoid counting the same death multiple times, the numbers for different conditions should not be summated.
2Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD-10 code U07.1
Scientists see downsides to top COVID-19 vaccines from Russia, China – Reuters
High-profile COVID-19 vaccines developed in Russia and China share a potential shortcoming: They are based on a common cold virus that many people have been exposed to, potentially limiting their effectiveness, some experts say.
CanSino Biologics’ (6185.HK) vaccine, approved for military use in China, is a modified form of adenovirus type 5, or Ad5. The company is in talks to get emergency approval in several countries before completing large-scale trials, the Wall Street Journal reported last week.
A vaccine developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute, approved in Russia earlier this month despite limited testing, is based on Ad5 and a second less common adenovirus.
“The Ad5 concerns me just because a lot of people have immunity,” said Anna Durbin, a vaccine researcher at Johns Hopkins University. “I’m not sure what their strategy is … maybe it won’t have 70% efficacy. It might have 40% efficacy, and that’s better than nothing, until something else comes along.”
Blood clots: A major problem in severe Covid-19 – Knowable
Out-of-control clotting can endanger some patients even after the virus has gone. Clinicians and researchers are trying to understand why it happens and how best to manage the problem.
Clotting is normally a good thing. When a blood vessel is injured, cell fragments called platelets rush to plug the leak. Proteins in the blood called clotting factors switch from dormant to active states in a chain reaction, and build a fibrous mesh. “It’s sort of a domino effect,” says Hanny Al-Samkari, a hematologist at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston.
Clotting in uninjured blood vessels is a common occurrence in hospital patients, especially those in the intensive care unit. Being bedridden encourages clotting, especially in the legs and pelvis, and the clots may migrate to the lungs where they impede the organs’ ability to load the blood with oxygen. Depending on their location, clots can lead to problems such as breathing difficulties, heart attack, stroke and death.
Inflammation due to infection can also tip those clotting-factor dominoes. But as Covid-19 patients filled hospital wards, it became apparent that their clotting was more frequent, more widespread and more severe than in other infections. The clots filled needles used to draw blood, or the tubing connecting patients to medication drips and machines. “Everything was clotting,” Al-Samkari says.
55% of Homeowners Regret Taking Out a Mortgage During the Pandemic – Lendedu
Among many interesting trends, we found that new homeowners are regretting their decision to buy a house during the pandemic, while 26% have refinanced their mortgage during the pandemic, and 54% have seen incorrect negative credit marks for something like a missed payment despite agreeing to temporary forbearance.
All data is based on an online survey of 1,000 adult Americans commissioned by LendEDU and conducted by research firm Pollfish. All respondents were current homeowners that had an outstanding mortgage through a private lender. The survey was conducted on August 21, 2020. For some questions, the answer percentages may not add up to 100% exactly due to rounding.
94% of our respondents became homeowners with the help of a mortgage before the coronavirus pandemic began impacting the U.S.(before March 2020), while 6% became homeowners with the help of a mortgage during the pandemic (March 2020 to now).
Amongst the latter, a combined 72% cited the coronavirus pandemic as the reason they decided to take out a mortgage to become homeowners, with many specifically attributing the current low-interest-rate lending environment.
The effect of Covid-19 on crime – Statista
One of the few positives to come out of the coronavirus pandemic appears to be a (temporary) reduction in crime. Figures from the UK’s Office for National Statistics show that, compared to 2019 in England and Wales, “there was a significant fall in crime at the height of the pandemic”. Billy Gazard from the ONS Centre for Crime and Justice explained: “This was driven by reductions in theft offences, particularly domestic burglary and theft of personal property.”
This reflects the increase in time that people spent at home during lockdown, creating “a reduction in opportunities for theft in public spaces and the closure of the night-time economy”. As this infographic with selected offence types shows, “the exception was police recording of drug offences, which increased through April and May. This reflects proactive police activity as overall crime levels reduced.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
Emergency authorisation of COVID-19 vaccines needs great care: WHO – Reuters
The emergency authorisation of COVID-19 vaccines requires a “great deal of seriousness and reflection”, the World Health Organization said on Monday after the United States announced it was considering fast-tracking candidate drugs.
Although every country had the right to approve drugs without completing full trials, “it is not something that you do very lightly”, WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told a news conference.
The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said he would be willing to bypass the normal approval process to authorise a COVID-19 vaccine as long as officials were convinced the benefits outweigh the risks.
Past vaccine disasters show why rushing a coronavirus vaccine now would be ‘colossally stupid’ – CNN
Vaccine experts are warning the federal government against rushing out a coronavirus vaccine before testing has shown it’s both safe and effective. Decades of history show why they’re right.
Their concern that the FDA may be moving too quickly heightened when FDA Commissioner Dr. Steven Hahn told the Financial Times that his agency could consider an emergency use authorization (EUA) for a Covid-19 vaccine before late stage clinical trials are complete if the data show strong enough evidence it would protect people.
… On April 12, 1955 the government announced the first vaccine to protect kids against polio. Within days, labs had made thousands of lots of the vaccine. Batches made by one company, Cutter Labs, accidentally contained live polio virus and it caused an outbreak.
More than 200,000 children got the polio vaccine, but within days the government had to abandon the program.
“Forty thousand kids got polio. Some had low levels, a couple hundred were left with paralysis, and about 10 died,” said Dr. Howard Markel, a pediatrician, distinguished professor, and director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan. The government suspended the vaccination program until it could determine what went wrong.
… However, increased oversight failed to discover another problem with the polio vaccine.
From 1955 to 1963, between 10% and 30% of polio vaccines were contaminated with simian virus 40 (SV40).
“The way they would grow the virus was on monkey tissues. These rhesus macaques were imported from India, tens of thousands of them,” medical anthropologist S. Lochlann Jain said. “They were gang caged and in those conditions, the ones that didn’t die on the journey, many got sick, and the viruses spread quickly,” added Jain, who taught a history of vaccines course at Stanford and is working on a publication about the incident. Scientists wrongly thought the formaldehyde they used would kill the virus. “It was being transferred to millions of Americans,” Jain said.
HHS bids $250 million contract meant to ‘defeat despair and inspire hope’ on coronavirus – Politico
As the presidential election fast approaches, the Department of Health and Human Services is bidding out a more than $250 million contract to a communications firm as it seeks to “defeat despair and inspire hope” about the coronavirus pandemic, according to an internal HHS document obtained by POLITICO.
Several weeks ago, the department sent out to a number of communications firms a “performance work statement,” which lays out what work will be expected of the winning firm. The document says that the vast majority of the money will be spent from now until January.
The document also lists the goals of the contract: “defeat despair and inspire hope, sharing best practices for businesses to operate in the new normal and instill confidence to return to work and restart the economy,” build a “coalition of spokespeople” around the country, provide important public health, therapeutic and vaccine information as the country reopens, and give Americans information on the phases of reopening.
“By harnessing the power of traditional, digital and social media, the sports and entertainment industries, public health associations, and other creative partners to deliver important public health and economic information the administration can defeat despair, inspire hope and achieve national recovery,” the document also says.
Face mask sales soar as Swedes eye potential guideline change – Reuters
Sweden is seeing a spike in demand for face masks, several drug stores said, ahead of a possible U-turn by the authorities, who have so far doubted their effectiveness in fighting the spread of the new coronavirus.
Unlike most other European countries, Sweden has kept many businesses, restaurants and most schools open, while not recommending the use of face masks, which remain a rare sight unlike in neighbouring Denmark, Norway and Finland.
But after the public health agency (FHM) said two weeks ago that it may issue new recommendations, Swedes appear to be stockpiling.
Face mask sales at online pharmacist Apotea have increased to around 400,000 units a week in the past two to three weeks from 150,000 in previous weeks, CEO Par Svardson said.
Potential coronavirus vaccine from Novavax shows positive early signs – The Hill
A potential coronavirus vaccine from the company Novavax showed promising signs in an early trial, provoking an immune response, according to results unveiled Tuesday.
Novavax, one of several firms working on a coronavirus vaccine with financial support from the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, said its testing has produced “robust antibody responses,” with higher levels of antibodies in people who received the vaccine than in people who had recovered from coronavirus.
All participants in the trial who received the potential vaccine produced antibodies, the company said.
U.S. advisors recommend four phases for distributing vaccine – CNBC
The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine released a draft proposal for distributing a coronavirus vaccine in the U.S. if and when one is approved for public use.
The vaccine would be distributed in four phases, with health-care workers and vulnerable Americans, like the elderly and those with underlying health conditions, getting it first. Phase two would include essential workers, teachers, homeless shelters as well as people in prisons, jails and detention centers. Phase three would include young adults, children and workers in industries “essential to the functioning of society” and who are at risk of exposure to the virus.
Phase four would include everyone not vaccinated yet.
U.S. economy needs over $1 trillion in fresh coronavirus stimulus, says world’s biggest hedge fund – CNBC
- Bridgewater Associates co-CIO Greg Jensen told CNBC the U.S. economy needs between $1.3 trillion and $1.7 trillion to sustain its recovery from the coronavirus-induced devastation.
- “And it depends what it’s used for…. The policy that gets directly spent in the economy is much more effective per dollar than the dollar that’s preventing more bad things from happening,” Jensen said on “Squawk on the Street.”
- Republicans and Democrats in Washington continue to disagree over the size and scale of another piece of coronavirus legislation.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Indian Economy Shrinks By 24% As The Country Sees Its Highest Coronavirus Numbers
Coronavirus Superspreader May Have Infected 140 People on Spanish Island
Wuhan Students Return to School as City Releases Last Patient From Hospital
Russia’s government says virus cases there have passed 1 million.
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Large trials for the Oxford COVID-19 vaccine begin in the U.S.
Vir Biotechnology and GSK start phase 2/3 study of COVID-19 antibody treatment
HCA Hospitals Accused of Requiring COVID-Infected Nurses to Work
California OKs Extension Of COVID-19 Moratorium On Evictions
Florida Extends Eviction, Foreclosure Ban Again
Nearly $100 Million in PPP Loans Given to Ineligible Companies
Hotel Fined Nearly $11,000 After Hosting ‘Evangelicals for Trump’ Event
Florida severs ties with Quest for taking too long to report 75,000 test results, DeSantis says.
Some scientists are working on, and giving themselves, D.I.Y. vaccines.
Apple and Google will build their coronavirus contact tracing software right into your phone
Trump officials to begin distributing new rapid test to states this month
Task force report shows dire warnings to Iowa, the state with the highest case rate this week
COVID Global Survey: 74% Willing To Get Vaccine
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 ISM and Markit Manufacturing Surveys Continue To Improve
July 2020 CoreLogic Home Prices: Home Price Appreciation Reached its Highest Level Since 2018
September 2020 Economic Forecast – Again Some Improvement But Economic Growth Remains Weak
Coronavirus Reinfection, What It Actually Means, And Why You Shouldn’t Panic
COVID19 Update 30 August 2020: U.S. Vs EU27
History Tells Us Trying To Stop Diseases Like COVID-19 At The Border Is A Failed Strategy
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 31 August 2020 Down $0.34 From A Year Ago
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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