Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 15.7 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 8.1 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- As Consumer Expectations Drift Downward, Prospects for US Recovery Weaken
- Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer
- “Never-Ending Monetary Accomodation”: Here Is The Fed Warning About The Consequences Of What The Fed Just Did
- Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates require ultra-low temperatures, raising questions about storage, distribution
- Animals most at risk for coronavirus include reindeer and dolphins, according to study
- The Last Coronavirus-Free Countries On Earth
- Texas, Florida, California, New York will not follow new U.S. COVID-19 testing plan
- New study suggests children might silently spread coronavirus
- Improvement in coronavirus mortgage bailout stalls, as more borrowers struggle to make payments
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 28 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 28 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,991 | 5,870,000 | 251,425 | 24,700,000 | 16.7% | 23.8% |
| Deaths** | 1,110 | 180,824 | 5,880 | 832,002 | 18.9% | 21.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.92* | 220.59* | ||||
* as of 25 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
An ensemble forecast published by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now projects more than 200,000 coronavirus deaths in the US by September 19.
COVID — Where Science Went to Die
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
India sets global record for number of new Covid-19 cases reported in a day – The Business Standard
India topped the United States’ record of coronavirus cases reported in a 24-hour period for two days in a row.
India recorded 85,687 new cases on Aug. 26 and 77,266 new cases on Aug. 27, both surpassing the United States’ highest number of new cases, which was reported on July 16, when the US reported 77,255 new cases, according to Johns Hopkins University (JHU) data, reports the CNN.
India has been focusing on ramping up testing to identify and treat potential cases of coronavirus. As of Friday, India has conducted more than 39 million tests, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research.
As Consumer Expectations Drift Downward, Prospects for US Recovery Weaken – The Conference Board
Consumer demand is a critical engine of the US economy, and the latest data from The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey® show that consumer optimism is declining for the second time this year. Expectations for future business conditions, jobs, and income dropped dramatically as the pandemic hit in March but improved from April to June as hopes were high for a quick reopening of the economy. However, in July and August expectations for business conditions and jobs deteriorated once more. Consumer expectations for income remained weak from April onward, and now show that more consumers are pessimistic than optimistic about their financial well-being. This increased uncertainty about income, along with uncertainties about the evolution of the virus, the possibility that government support will dry up, and the prospect of more job losses are all key factors behind the decline in consumer confidence. These concerns will likely cause consumer spending to cool in the months ahead.
Powell announces new Fed approach to inflation that could keep rates lower for longer – CNBC
- Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced a major policy shift Thursday to “average inflation targeting.”
- That means the central bank will be more inclined to allow inflation to run higher than the standard 2% target before hiking interest rates.
- In addition to the inflation change, the Fed shifted its approach to employment in a way that will focus on those at the lower end of the income spectrum.
White House signs $750 million deal with Abbott Labs to buy 150 million rapid coronavirus tests – Business Insider
[editor’s note: Like many COVID-related products the FDA has authorized for emergency use, very little data on the 15-minute test’s accuracy have been made public.]
- The United States signed a $750 million deal with Abbott Laboratories for 150 million rapid coronavirus tests.
- Abbot’s BinaxNow test was granted emergency authorization by the Federal Drug Administration on Wednesday.
- The company also said it was preparing to “ship tens of millions of tests in September, ramping production to 50 million tests a month in October.”
It’s official: as Powell unveiled moments ago, the Fed is now operating under an explicit Average Inflation Targeting platform, with the Fed seeking inflation that averages 2% over time, a step that implies allowing for periods of overshoots, and assures no rate hikes for years to come (according to BofA simulations, a 2% AIT would mean no rate hikes for up to 42 years). At the same time, the Fed’s shift on maximum employment will allow labor-market gains to run more broadly.
Regarding price pressures, the document says the committee will target “inflation that averages 2% over time” and will aim to bring inflation above the 2% target following periods when inflation runs below that level.
“The maximum level of employment is a broad-based and inclusive goal,” Powell said in a speech delivered virtually for the central bank’s annual policy symposium traditionally held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “This change reflects our appreciation for the benefits of a strong labor market, particularly for many in low- and moderate-income communities.”
To be sure, pragmatic Fed watchers will immediately admit that there is nothing new here: after all the Fed’s implicit core PCE inflation target has already been 2% yet even with a record $7 trillion balance sheet, the Fed failed to hit it for years.
In other words, the Fed failed to even sustainable reach its target, but this time will be different. Yeah right.
But there are bigger problems with AIT: as BofA wrote earlier this week, explicit AIT could also cripple the Fed’s already waning credibility, not least of all because “it would also bring up difficult issues around the appropriate time period to calculate averages and the maximum realized inflation rates the Fed would tolerate while the average climbs higher.” Indeed, the Fed’s credibility is already on the line given:
- the market’s pricing of inflation expectations well below 2% for the next 30 years, and
- its decade-long miss in achieving its inflation mandate
Rabobank’s Michael Every had a more pragmatic criticism:
Does anyone think this will work to generate inflation and jobs in the US economy? No. Is the cost of borrowing really the problem now? No. Is anybody pricing in a rate hike for at least five years? No. If they were to make that ten years would it make a firm any more likely to hire someone right now? No. Has YCC worked to create reflation in Japan? No. Yes, at the margin it’s USD negative in that it implies future yields would not be allowed to rise even if inflation did: but presumably once (IF!) inflation (and WAGES!) rise sustainably, the Fed will just hold another Jackson Hole speech and change its operating framework again.
Moderna and Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine candidates require ultra-low temperatures, raising questions about storage, distribution – MarketWatch
The COVID-19 vaccine candidates being developed by Moderna Inc. and BioNTech and Pfizer Inc. will require stringent standards for refrigeration, and that may hamper how they are distributed to the hundreds of millions of Americans expecting to receive them.
Executives from Moderna and Pfizer on Wednesday separately told the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice on Wednesday that mRNA-1273, which is Moderna’s coronavirus vaccine candidate, requires a storage temperature of negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit. BioNTech and Pfizer’s candidates, BN1162b2 and BNT162b2, need to be stored in negative 94 degrees Fahrenheit.
“These storage conditions would make traditional office or pharmacy administration very difficult,” SVB Leerink analysts wrote in a note to investors on Thursday. “These conditions could be met at tertiary hospitals and laboratories and could be accommodated in intensive one-day vaccination events at such sites, but this would still only cover a fraction of the healthy population.”
Animals most at risk for coronavirus include reindeer and dolphins, according to study – Fox News
The novel coronavirus is believed to originate in bats, according to experts, leading the authors of a recent study to look at what other members of the animal kingdom may be at risk for getting infected by SARS-CoV-2 and potentially spreading the virus.
“We identified a large number of mammals that can potentially be infected by SARS-CoV-2 via their ACE2 proteins. This can assist the identification of intermediate hosts for SARS-CoV-2 and hence reduce the opportunity for a future outbreak of COVID-19,” the researchers stated in the study.
The report published this week in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) said a team of researchers studied over 400 primates, looking at the ACE2 protein, which multiple studies have identified as the entry point for the SARS-CoV-2 virus to enter the body.
The team from the University of California, Davis analyzed and predicted the ability of the novel coronavirus to bind to the animals’ ACE2 receptors in the 410 vertebrate species including 252 mammals, 72 birds, 65 fish, four amphibians and 17 reptiles, according to the study.
The Last Coronavirus-Free Countries On Earth – Statista
Surprisingly, there are still some countries out there that have not reported a single case of Covid-19. The two most dubious candidates are certainly Turkmenistan and North Korea, authoritarian states that still deny the pandemic has spread within their borders. Observers do dispute that, however, stating that its almost certain both countries have experienced cases of Covid-19. In Turkmenistan, there have been reports of people experiencing suspected coronavirus symptoms and dying while the government has remained silent. In North Korea, there was a suspected case in the border city of Kaesong which prompted Kim Jong-un to impose a three-week lockdown on the region. That has now been lifted while state media has not commented on the outcome.
Back in April, a lack of public appearances by Kim Jong-un led to rumours that some form of crisis, possibly Covid-19, had indeed gripped the country. He later reappeared at the opening of a fertilizer factory, alive and well, after a 20 day absence. While experts dispute North Korea’s claim that it has had no cases, it is entirely possible that its isolation from the rest of the world is now working in its favour. The country was also one of the first to close its borders in response to the threat and that early action may have proven effective in containing the spread of the disease. Excluding the censorship and secretive nature of the regimes in North Korea and Turkmenistan, 10 other countries have reliably reported no cases of Covid-19.
They are all island nations located in the South Pacific: Palau, Micronesia, The Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, Samoa, Vanuatu and Tonga. Again, this is a case where isolation is the best defense against the pandemic, though the countries are still reeling from the virus despite the lack of physical cases. Tourism is hugely important in the region and hotels and beaches are lying empty. Some governments had hoped to reopen safe air corridors to Australia and New Zealand but recent flare ups in those countries have led to those plans being put on ice. There are still some hopes that an air connection can be established with Taiwan but the volatility of the virus makes that far from certain.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Texas, Florida, California, New York will not follow new U.S. COVID-19 testing plan – Reuters
Several large U.S. states including Texas are not heeding new federal health officials’ calls to reduce COVID-19 testing of some exposed to the virus, joining a broad rebuke of the Trump administration by public health leaders.
California, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Texas, New Jersey and New York all plan to continue to test asymptomatic people who have been exposed to COVID-19, despite new guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggesting that such tests may not be needed.
“The current Texas guidance recommends testing for all close contacts of a confirmed case because it allows for early case identification among people who are at a higher risk of infection,” a spokesman for the Texas Department of State Health Services in a statement. “There’s not a planned change at this point.”
California and New York made similar statements. The Florida Department of Health said asymptomatic testing was continuing while the new CDC recommendations were evaluated, and Texas also said it would evaluate.
University Of Arizona Prevented Coronavirus Outbreak On Campus By Testing Wastewater – Huffington Post
The University of Arizona discovered two students had the coronavirus with no symptoms and were able to stop an outbreak in its tracks because of wastewater testing.
University President Dr. Robert Robbins confirmed to local outlet KOLD News 13 that wastewater samples from the Likins Hall dorm in Tucson came back positive for COVID-19, prompting the school to test the 311 students and staff in that dorm. Of those tested, two were positive and have since been put in isolation. The school is also conducting contact tracing, Robbins said.
Dr. Ian Pepper, an environmental science professor at the university and the director of its Water & Energy Sustainable Technology Center, told the outlet that his team has been sampling sewage from dorms, as it “can pick up a single positive case in a group of 10,000.”
Improvement in coronavirus mortgage bailout stalls, as more borrowers struggle to make payments – CNBC
- As of Aug. 25, 3.9 million homeowners were in mortgage forbearance programs, according to Black Knight, a mortgage technology and analytics firm.
- This represents 7.4% of all active mortgages and is unchanged from the week before.
- A reduction of 23,000 borrowers in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac forbearances was almost entirely offset by a 10,000-borrower increase in FHA forbearances and a 12,000 increase among bank-held and private-label loans.
New study suggests children might silently spread coronavirus – CNN
Children carry coronavirus in their noses and throats for weeks, even if they don’t show any symptoms, researchers in South Korea reported Friday.
Although their study does not necessarily demonstrate that children are transmitting the virus to others, they suggested this might be responsible for “silent spread’ of the virus in communities.
“In this case series study, inapparent infections in children may have been associated with silent COVID-19 transmission in the community,” the researchers, from various institutions in South Korea, wrote in the study.
The study, published in the journal JAMA Pediatrics on Friday, included data on 91 children in South Korea diagnosed with COVID-19 between Feb. 18 and March 31.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Tour de France in doubt after Covid red alert issued before Grand Départ in Nice
As Coronavirus Infections Rise, Masks In Paris Become Mandatory In All Public Places
Hindus Work Around Coronavirus To Celebrate God Ganesh, Remover Of Obstacles
Germany’s Debt From Coronavirus Won’t Be Repayed Until 2058
Huge Subway Brawl [in Seoul, Korea] Breaks Out Over Man Not Wearing Mask
Letting Coronavirus Spread for Herd Immunity ‘Very Dangerous’: WHO Official
Trump’s Envoy to New Zealand Under Fire for Avoiding COVID-19 Quarantine
J&J to begin phase two vaccine trials in Europe next week
Spain reports highest increase of Covid-19 cases since the pandemic began
Hungary to close borders starting September 1
Cuba to Launch New Measures to Curb Surge in Coronavirus Cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Four at RNC in Charlotte test positive for coronavirus
California Church Fined Thousands for Holding Indoor Services
California Poultry Plant Shuts Down Due to ‘Uncontrolled’ COVID-19 Outbreak
Hawaii Shutting Down Entire Freeway to Use as COVID-19 Testing Site
Pregnant Woman Dies of Coronavirus Three Days After Surprise Baby Shower
Nevada Man Becomes First Person in U.S. To Catch Coronavirus Twice
China Refuses to Send COVID Vaccine Samples to Canada During Diplomatic Row
MGM Resorts lays off 25% of U.S. workforce
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
21 August 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues And Is Nearing Expansion
Final August 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves But Remains Historically Low
August 2020 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Declined But Remains In Expansion
July 2020 Real Personal Income Declined, Real Expenditures Improved
Hurricanes And Wildfires Are Colliding With The COVID-19 Pandemic And Compounding The Risks
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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