Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 15.5 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 8.6 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- There now a total of over 24 million global coronavirus cases
- COVID-19 Risks in Cancer Vary by Age, Diagnosis
- Researchers are working on a second wave of vaccines that they say could be cheaper and more potent than the first
- Fed’s Esther George sees risks building of double-dip recession
- FDA authorizes Abbott’s fast $5 COVID-19 test
- The U.S. Universities With The Most Covid-19 Cases
- Blood Thinners Again Linked to COVID-19 Survival in Hospital
- Traces Of COVID-19 Found In Abandoned Apartment Bathroom Offer New Clues About How It Spreads
- U.S. Justice Department weighs probe of blue states over COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes
- Don’t argue with anti-maskers, CDC warns stores
- Small lab study suggests reasons for different clinical courses in men versus women
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 27 August 2020:
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Coronavirus Statistics For 27 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 41,718 | 5,820,000 | 251,949 | 24,200,000 | 16.6% | 24.0% |
| Deaths** | 1,228 | 179,714 | 6,289 | 826,090 | 19.5% | 21.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.92* | 220.59* | ||||
* as of 25 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
COVID-19 Risks in Cancer Vary by Age, Diagnosis – MedPage
Older age and hematologic versus solid malignancies emerged as key determinants of COVID-19 risk and mortality for patients with cancer, a study from England showed.
The COVID-19 case-fatality rate increased almost fivefold from patients ages 40 to 49 to those who were 80 or older. Patients with leukemia, lymphoma, or myeloma were significantly more likely to have severe COVID-19, and a leukemia diagnosis more than doubled the likelihood of death from COVID-19.
After controlling for age and sex, patients with any hematologic malignancy treated with chemotherapy were more than twice as likely to die after COVID-19-associated hospitalization, Gary Middleton, MD, of the University of Birmingham, and coauthors reported in the Lancet Oncology.
“Our results show that patients with different tumor types have differing susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 and differing COVID-19 disease phenotypes, with notable increased SARS-CoV-2 hospital presentations in patients with hematological cancers,” the authors said of their findings.
“Patients with hematological malignancies … are overrepresented, which is perhaps suggestive of an a priori increased susceptibility to viral infection,” they added.
CDC director walks back change in coronavirus testing guidelines – The Hill
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday issued new guidance for coronavirus testing, days after a quiet change sparked protests from the scientific and medical communities.
In a statement, Director Robert Redfield said those who come into contact with confirmed or probable COVID-19 patients could be tested themselves, even if they do not show symptoms of the virus.
“Testing is meant to drive actions and achieve specific public health objectives. Everyone who needs a COVID-19 test, can get a test. Everyone who wants a test does not necessarily need a test; the key is to engage the needed public health community in the decision with the appropriate follow-up action,” Redfield said.
The CDC revised its testing guidance earlier this week, limiting tests to those who show symptoms. That change prompted backlash among public health experts who pointed to the role asymptomatic people play in spreading the virus, and concern that the revision had been dictated by political appointees outside of CDC.
Researchers are working on a second wave of vaccines that they say could be cheaper and more potent than the first. – New York Times
Seven months into the pandemic, with more than 30 vaccines rapidly advancing through the rigorous stages of clinical trials, a surprising number of research groups are placing bets on some that have not yet been given to a single person.
The New York Times has confirmed that at least 88 vaccine candidates are under active preclinical investigation in laboratories across the world, with 67 of them slated to begin clinical trials before the end of 2021.
Those trials may begin after millions of people have already received the first wave of vaccines. It will take months to see if any of them are safe and effective.
Nevertheless, the scientists developing them say their designs may be able to prompt more powerful immune responses, or be much cheaper to produce, or both — making them the slow and steady winners of the race against the virus.
Fed’s Esther George sees risks building of double-dip recession – CNBC
- Kansas City Fed President Esther George told CNBC she has concerns about a double-dip recession should the coronavirus see a resurgence.
- However, she said “it’s too soon to speculate” on whether the Fed might bring more policy help.
- She also expressed skepticism about allowing inflation to “run hot” as some central bank officials prefer.
FDA authorizes Abbott’s fast $5 COVID-19 test – The Verge
A COVID-19 test that takes 15 minutes and can be run without lab equipment was just granted emergency use authorization by the Food and Drug Administration. It will cost $5, and runs on a simple card that uses the same technology as a pregnancy test.
The test, called BinaxNOW, is produced by the health care company Abbott. The company is also launching an app that syncs up with the tests, and gives people who test negative for the virus a “digital health pass” that they can display on their phone. CEO Robert Ford said in a statement that the combination of the test and the app offer a “comprehensive testing solution.”
The company said in a press release that it plans to produce 50 million tests per month by October.
[editor’s note: The antigen test, called BinaxNOW, is portable and comes with a complimentary app. The test is the size of a credit card, with no equipment required and results delivered in 15 minutes using proven lateral flow technology. It lets trained health-care providers test a lot of people for active infections, a lot faster, on a single-use test. – CNBC]
The U.S. Universities With The Most Covid-19 Cases – Statista
As American students get ready to return to university or start out at third level for the first time, preparations are anything but standard amid the coronavirus pandemic. The New York Times conducted a survey in an attempt to gauge the number of confirmed cases of the virus at American universities. It found that there are now more than 26,000 confirmed infections at over 750 institutions.
Many colleges have been reporting spikes in recent weeks, particularly as dorms have reopened. As of August 26, the University of Alabama at Birmingham had 972 cases, the highest number of any third level institution in the country. The University of North Carolina had the second-highest number with 835 while the University of Central Florida rounded off the top three with 727.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Blood Thinners Again Linked to COVID-19 Survival in Hospital – MedPage
Anticoagulation for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was associated with lower risk of death or intubation in an observational study from New York City’s pandemic peak.
In-hospital mortality risk was a relative 50% lower with standard prophylactic dosing and 47% lower with higher therapeutic-level dosing after adjustment for other factors, both statistically significant when compared with COVID-19 patients in Mount Sinai hospitals not given an anticoagulant (mortality rates of 21.6%, 28.6%, and 25.6%, respectively).
Intubation was less likely for anticoagulant-treated COVID-19 patients as well (adjusted HR 0.69 with prophylactic dosing, 95% CI 0.51-0.94, and aHR 0.72 with therapeutic dosing, 95% CI 0.58-0.89), reported Anuradha Lala, MD, of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, and colleagues in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Major bleeding events adjudicated by clinician chart review turned up a “low” rate of 1.7% (33 of 1,959) on prophylactic anticoagulation and 3% (27 of 900) on therapeutic anticoagulation compared with 1.9% (29 of 1,530) on no anticoagulant during hospitalization.
“The study has severe limitations due to its retrospective nature,” cautioned Stephan Moll, MD, of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Hemophilia and Thrombosis Center.
Traces Of COVID-19 Found In Abandoned Apartment Bathroom Offer New Clues About How It Spreads – ZeroHedge
In the latest research to support the notion that the virus coronavirus in the bathroom of an unoccupied apartment in Guangzhou, China, suggests the airborne pathogen may have wafted upwards through drain pipes, an echo of a large SARS outbreak in Hong Kong 17 years ago.
According to the research, traces of SARS-CoV-2 were detected on the sink, faucet and shower handle of a long-vacant apartment situated near the apartment of the family mentioned above. The contaminated bathroom was located directly above the home of five people confirmed a week earlier to have COVID-19. The study was carried out by researchers at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
The scientists conducted what they described as an “on-site tracer simulation experiment” to see whether the virus could be spread through waste pipes via tiny airborne particles created by the force of a toilet flushing.
They found evidence of these aerosols in bathrooms 10 and 12 levels above the infected family’s apartment. Two cases were confirmed on each of those floors in early February, raising concern that SARS-CoV-2-laden particles from the infected family’s stool had drifted into their homes via plumbing and managed to successfully infect others.
For those who don’t understand the physics behind aerosol particles, the study’s authors offered a visual guide.
Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine trial more than 50 percent enrolled – Reuters
Enrollment in the 30,000-volunteer U.S. trial testing a COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer Inc and German partner BioNTech is more than 50 percent complete, Dr. Nicholas Kitchin, a top Pfizer vaccine research and development scientist, said at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting on Wednesday.
Last week, the company said it had enrolled more than 11,000 volunteers in the trial.
This college’s pop-up Covid test: Stop and smell the roses – CNN
If all goes according to plan, Penn State University students who opt for an on-campus experience this fall will start in-person classes this week under the banner of a “Mask Up or Pack Up” campaign.
By returning to campus, students are agreeing to wear masks, adhere to social distancing practices and submit to random testing for Covid-19.
But “Mask Up or Pack Up” also offers a less traditional, more proactive approach to virus containment: the smell test.
“Our message is, ‘If you have sudden-onset smell loss, in the absence of other explanatory history like a head injury, the chance of you being infected is high,'” said John Hayes, a professor in the department of food science at Penn State and director of the Sensory Evaluation Center in the College of Agricultural sciences. “This is about raising awareness that smell loss is an early symptom of Covid-19.”
Hayes’ department plans to send scented scratch-and-sniff postcards to students, asking them to monitor their sense of smell. There will be other reminders throughout campus, such as flower arrangements that invite people to “smell the roses” before entering a lecture hall.
U.S. Justice Department weighs probe of blue states over COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes – Reuters
The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday said it may investigate whether four states led by Democratic governors violated the civil rights of the elderly by requiring nursing homes to admit coronavirus patients, a practice which critics say led to thousands of deaths.
The department said it was seeking COVID-19 data related to nursing homes from four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“Protecting the rights of some of society’s most vulnerable members, including elderly nursing home residents, is one of our country’s most important obligations,” Eric Dreiband, assistant attorney general for the department’s Civil Rights Division, said in a statement.
Spokeswomen for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy both issued statements calling the request a partisan move.
Don’t argue with anti-maskers, CDC warns stores – CNN
When in doubt, don’t argue with anti-maskers.
That’s the recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to retail and service employees.
This week, the health agency issued new guidance to limit workplace violence that could be aimed at workers when enforcing their companies’ Covid-19 safety procedures.
The procedures that retail and service businesses have been advised to implement under CDC guidelines include enforcing mask wearing, social distancing and limiting the number of customers allowed in a business at one time.
But the CDC warns that workers could be threatened or assaulted for employing these safety measures, describing violence ranging from yelling and swearing to slapping and choking the employees. The CDC has outlined a number of steps businesses can take, which include conflict-resolution training for their workers, installing security systems and identifying designated safe areas in stores employees can go to if they feel in danger.
Uncertainty shrouds Tour de France racing against COVID-19 – The Washington Post
Already delayed, the Tour de France sets off Saturday shrouded in uncertainty, flying in the face of the coronavirus pandemic and the imponderable question of how many of the 176 riders will avoid infection and endure three exceptionally tough weeks of racing to reach the finish in Paris.
That’s if the rolling roadshow gets that far.
Staging cycling’s premier race when COVID-19 infections are rising again in France represents both a health risk and an embodiment of French President Emmanuel Macron’s insistence that the country must learn to function as normally as possible with the virus.
Failure to safely steer the Tour to the cobbles of Paris’ Champs-Elysées avenue on Sept. 20 could cast further doubt on the feasibility of holding other sporting mega-events, including the Tokyo Olympics postponed to next year, while the coronavirus remains untamed. A key question posed by pushing ahead with the race will be whether it would have been wiser and safer to simply cancel it.
Small lab study suggests reasons for different clinical courses in men versus women – MedPage
Men and women tend to have different immune responses to COVID-19, which could help to explain some of their differing clinical courses, a lab study found.
Among a small group of patients with moderate COVID-19, men who deteriorated were older and had a higher BMI than men who were stable, while both age and BMI levels were comparable for women who deteriorated and were stable, reported Akiko Iwasaki, PhD, of Yale University School of Medicine in New Haven, Connecticut, and colleagues.
There were also molecular differences, where men with COVID-19 had higher plasma levels of innate immune cytokines, including interleukin (IL)-8 and IL-18, and women of all ages had more “robust” T cell activation than men during SARS-CoV-2 infection, they wrote in Nature.
In women, CD8 T cells were significantly elevated over healthy volunteers, but the same could not be said for men. This may also have contributed to differing clinical trajectories, the authors added.
“While poor T cell responses were associated with future progression of disease in male patients, higher innate immune cytokine levels were associated with worsening of COVID-19 disease in female patients,” they wrote.
Moreover, T cell response was negatively correlated with a patient’s age in men, but not women.
Two-Dose Coronavirus Vaccine Shows Promise After Initial Testing Phase – Newsweek
Newly released data from a preliminary trial of Moderna’s two-dose vaccine candidate to prevent COVID-19 suggests that the vaccine could be safe for use across all age groups.
The company presented interim data from a Phase 1 trial of the vaccine during a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices meeting on Wednesday. The presentation included new data from two groups of participants, one aged 56 to 70 and another aged 71 and older, which suggested that the vaccine may be as effective among older people as it is for younger groups.
Moderna said that the vaccine was “generally safe and well-tolerated” among all age groups when given in two divided doses of 100 micrograms each, spaced 28 days apart. The vaccine caused the immune systems of the older participants to produce potentially virus-neutralizing antibodies at similar levels as were previously found in participants aged 18-55, while all participants receiving the vaccine produced more antibodies than those seen in people who have recovered from COVID-19.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Mask use ordered in Paris with 1 in 5 French regions in virus ‘red zone’
WHO says Europe faces ‘tricky moment’ as summer turns to fall
WHO says children do a play a role in coronavirus spread, but schools are not a ‘main contributor’
In the U.K., some workers will be paid to self-isolate in areas with high case rates
UK records highest daily virus cases since mid-June, and extends travel restrict
Lord & Taylor Is Officially Going Out of Business After 194 Years
A factory is to partially close after 75 poultry processing workers tested positive for Covid-19.
India reports record 75,000 new virus infections
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
21 Arrested In NJ Statewide COVID-Crisis-Related Child Porn Bust
A Confusing Back-To-School Season May Lead To Blockbuster Spending
North Carolina State University closing campus dorms due to coronavirus
COVID-19 Outbreak at Bachelorette Party Infects Everybody Except One Person
School Tells Parents in Text That All Kindergarteners Must Quarantine
Over 70,000 Children Diagnosed With COVID Since Early August
Man Accused of Using Fake Tax Documents to Get Over $400K in COVID Relief
Hudson Yards developer says Related is collecting 50% of rents on New York City malls
Stay-at-home order goes into effect for Oahu in bid to control spread of COVID-19
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Improves
July 2020 Pending Home Sales Again Improves
Fed’s Latest Decision Is Not Death Of Phillips Curve: Goldman Sachs Chief Economist
Second Estimate 2Q2020 GDP Growth Marginally Improves But Remained Deep In Contraction
22 August 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Remain Over One Million
Rail Week Ending 22 August 2020 – Intermodal Continues To Improve
How The Pandemic Has Sped Up The Passage To Post Capitalism
Threat Of Virulent COVID-19 Secondary Waves In G20 Economies
A Man Was Reinfected With Coronavirus After Recovery – What Does This Mean For Immunity?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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