Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 925 K to 1,100 K (consensus 987 K), and the Department of Labor reported 1,006,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 1,175,250 (reported last week as 1,175,750) to 1,068,000
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
Note from the BLS:
REVISION TO SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS
Beginning with the Unemployment Insurance (UI) Weekly Claims News Release issued Thursday, September 3, 2020, the methodology used to seasonally adjust the national initial claims and continued claims will reflect additive factors as opposed to multiplicative factors.
Seasonal adjustment factors can be either multiplicative or additive. A multiplicative seasonal effect is assumed to be proportional to the level of the series. A sudden large increase in the level of the series will be accompanied by a proportionally large seasonal effect. In contrast, an additive seasonal effect is assumed to be unaffected by the level of the series. In times of relative economic stability, the multiplicative option is generally preferred over the additive option. However, in the presence of a large level shift in a time series, multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors can result in systematic over- or under-adjustment of the series; in such cases, additive seasonal adjustment factors are preferred since they tend to more accurately track seasonal fluctuations in the series and have smaller revisions.
Prior to September 2020, the seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims series used multiplicative seasonal adjustment factors. Starting in September Bureau of Labor Statistics staff, who provide the seasonal adjustment factors, specified these series as additive. In accordance with the usual practice, the seasonal adjustment models and factors will be reviewed at the beginning of each calendar year, when prior years of seasonally adjusted estimates will be subject to revision.
Job’s loss since the start of the pandemic is now 58,689,000. Many in this number are now employed or have dropped out of the workforce as the all programs continuing claims number is 27,017,232].
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 395 % higher than one year ago (versus the 445 % higher last week).
Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending August 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,006,000, a decrease of 98,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 2,000 from 1,106,000 to 1,104,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,068,000, a decrease of 107,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 1,175,750 to 1,175,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 9.9 percent for the week ending August 15, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.1 from 10.2 to 10.1 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending August 15 was 14,535,000, a decrease of 223,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 86,000 from 14,844,000 to 14,758,000. The 4-week moving average was 15,215,750, a decrease of 604,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 21,500 from 15,841,250 to 15,819,750.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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