Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 9.6 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 1.8 % lower than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;

• Global coronavirus deaths now exceed 800,000
• Safer Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA Vax Candidate Moves Forward
• In Germany, researchers organized a concert to figure out how the virus spreads at big events
• Why a PPE shortage still plagues America and what we need to do about it
• COVID-19 vaccines could become mandatory. Here’s how it might work
• Should States Require a Coronavirus Vaccine For Kids to Attend School?
• CDC updates school guidelines for Covid-19 pandemic

My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.

The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.

The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 22 August 2020:

z coronavirus.png​

* as of 20 Aug 2020

** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number

*** red color indicates record number

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Safer Pfizer COVID-19 mRNA Vax Candidate Moves Forward – MedPage

With the international collaboration between Pfizer and BioNTech yielding a modified RNA COVID-19 vaccine candidate to progress to phase II/III trials, the manufacturers shared data late Thursday that helped inform the decision.

BNT162b2 was the winner: a single nucleoside-modified messenger RNA vaccine that elicited an immune response in healthy volunteers ages 18-55 at nearly four times the neutralizing geometric mean titers (GMT) compared with a panel of patients recovering from COVID-19 infection, and at nearly two times the GMT response among older adults ages 65-85. The vaccine was also well tolerated, with fever as the most common systemic effect.

U.S.-based Pfizer and German-based BioNTech announced interim phase I results in a press release, which were also published on the medRxiv preprint server.

While there were four vaccine candidates, BNT162b1 and BNT162b2 emerged as the two front-runners, the manufacturers said in a press release on July 27. BNT162b2 was selected to progress to phase II/III, based mainly on a combination of immune response and favorable tolerability in phase I/II trials.

Not only did BNT162b2 have “mild to moderate and transient … systemic events” (fever, fatigue, chills) and no serious adverse events, but in terms of immunogenicity, BNT162b2 “elicited T cell responses against the receptor binding domain (RBD) and against the remainder of the spike glycoprotein that is not contained in the BNT162b1 vaccine candidate,” and “immune recognition of more spike T cell epitopes may have the potential to generate more consistent responses across diverse populations and in older adults,” the manufacturers said.

States Should Require a Coronavirus Vaccine For Kids to Attend School, Some Experts Say – Newsweek

All 50 states require most students to have certain vaccinations before attending in-person classes and it’s a measure that experts say should at least be considered for the new coronavirus.

Schools across the U.S. are beginning to reopen their doors to students or making plans for the upcoming year after having closed in the spring to slow the spread of the new coronavirus. So far in the school year, schools in at least six states had to once again close down because of COVID-19 infections, prompting concerns about the safety and efficiency of having in-person classes in the fall.

Large populations of school-aged children being vaccinated against the new coronavirus could alleviate some of these concerns, as the risk of a student or faculty member contracting the new coronavirus would be lower. Multiple vaccine candidates are in Phase III trials, but Dr. William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, noted they only involve adults.

In Germany, researchers organized a concert to figure out how the virus spreads at big events. – New York Times

But this wasn’t another story of an entertainment venue flouting public health concerns in order to get back to business. The daylong show was an experiment set up by scientists to help figure out why mass events are so effective at spreading the virus and how the most risky behaviors could be avoided.

Each of the concertgoers passed a Covid-19 test and had their temperature taken before entering the closed arena. They were also all given trackers to allow researchers to monitor who they came close to, as well as an FFP2 respirator mask to wear and a bottle of special fluorescing hand sanitizer that allowed researchers to learn which areas were most frequently touched.

Researchers from the Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg will spend weeks analyzing the data to determine when and where transmission of the virus was most likely to occur at the venue.

“We want to find out: what are the moments, what are the situations where this risk happens,” said Dr. Stefan Moritz, the lead researcher, in a video statement about the project, called Restart-19.

Why a PPE shortage still plagues America and what we need to do about it – CNBC

• Six months into the Covid-19 crisis, there is still a dire shortage of personal protective equipment for our health-care workers, says Dan Cohen, CEO of 3DBio Therapeutics.
• America needs a dynamic ecosystem of U.S.-based medical production called a Manufacturing Reserve Corps. that can kick into gear during any health-care emergency.

COVID-19 vaccines could become mandatory. Here’s how it might work. – National Geographic

YOU WALK TOWARD the arena, ready for a big game, tickets in hand. But what you see is a long line wrapping around the corner of the building and a bottleneck at the entrance as people search their pockets and purses for a small piece of paper. To be cleared to enter, you’ll also need that document—proof that you’ve received a COVID-19 vaccination.

This is the future as some experts see it: a world in which you’ll need to show you’ve been inoculated against the novel coronavirus to attend a sports game, get a manicure, go to work, or hop on a train.

“We’re not going to get to the point where the vaccine police break down your door to vaccinate you,” says Arthur Caplan, a bioethicist at New York University’s School of Medicine. But he and several other health policy experts envision vaccine mandates could be instituted and enforced by local governments or employers—similar to the current vaccine requirements for school-age children, military personnel, and hospital workers.

In the United States, most vaccine mandates come from the government. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) makes recommendations for both pediatric and adult vaccines, and state legislatures or city councils determine whether to issue mandates. These mandates are most commonly tied to public school attendance, and all 50 states require students to receive some vaccines, with exemptions for medical, religious, and philosophical reasons.

Adult vaccine mandates—compelling employees and the public to inoculate themselves—aren’t nearly as widespread, but they’re not unheard of. U.S. states and cities can and have forced compulsory vaccinations on citizens. In 1901, for example, Cambridge, Massachusetts, adopted a law that required all citizens aged 21 and older to get vaccinated against smallpox. Failure to comply could lead to a five-dollar fine, or the equivalent of $150 today. Those who challenged the order in court lost. (The last outbreak of smallpox in the U.S. occurred in 1949.)

[editor’s note: good article to read in its entirety]

US coronavirus deaths could top 6,000 a day by December in worst-case scenario, expert predicts – COVID19data

The death toll from the coronavirus pandemic in the United States could spike to as high as 6,000 people a day by December in the worst-case scenario, according to Dr. Chris Murray, the chair of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

Currently, about 1,000 people are dying daily from the coronavirus in the US.

In a new model released Friday, researchers at IHME predicted the number of daily deaths will decrease slowly in September — then rise to nearly 2,000 a day by the start of December.

But Murray told CNN that, “depending on what our leaders do,” things can get worse.

“WE HAVE A WORSE SCENARIO IN WHAT WE RELEASE AND THAT’S MANY, MANY MORE DEATHS,” HE SAID. “AND IN FACT, BY THE TIME DECEMBER ROLLS AROUND, IF WE DON’T DO ANYTHING AT ALL, THE DAILY DEATH TOLL IN THE US WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE 2,000 DEATHS A DAY BY DECEMBER. IT COULD BE AS HIGH AS 6,000 DEATHS A DAY.”

CDC updates school guidelines for Covid-19 pandemic – CNN

The updated guidelines emphasize the importance of keeping schools open if possible.

… The available evidence from countries that have reopened schools showed that Covid-19 “poses low risks to school-aged children – at least in areas with low community transmission.”

It adds that in general, children are less likely to have severe symptoms than adults. The risk of teachers, school administrators and other staff will, however, “mirror that of other adults in the community” if they get sick, the guidelines said.

Schools are still encouraged to make accommodations for staff and students at higher risk for severe illness that will limit their exposure risk. Schools are also still encouraged to divide students and teachers into distinct groups, if possible, that stay together throughout the entire school day for in-person learning. Alternative schedules or staggered scheduling may also be a good idea to limit interaction.

… The consistent use of masks is most important when students, teachers, and staff are indoors and when social distancing is difficult. People should be reminded not to touch the mask and to wash hands or use hand sanitizer frequently, the guidelines say.

Clear face coverings may be preferable for teachers of young students, for example, when they teach students how to read. Clear face coverings may also be helpful for teachers working with English language learners and for students with disabilities.

[editor’s note: another article which is hard to summarize and requires a complete read]

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

WHO Chief Calls Graft Involving PPE ‘Unacceptable,’ Says It’s ‘Murder’

India, approaching 3 million cases, adds restrictions but allows some religious gatherings.

Bolivia’s coronavirus death rate is among the world’s worst, an analysis shows.

Mexico reports nearly 6,000 new coronavirus cases

Brazil reports more than 30,000 new Covid-19 cases

The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

U.S. Movie Theaters Say It’s Safe To Watch A Film: How About ‘Unhinged’?

School Nurses To Play Big Role In Eventual Reopening Of In-Class Learning In LA

Minnesota and Nebraska Link COVID-19 Cases to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally

Man Who Gave Cancer Patient in Walmart ‘COVID Hug’ Wanted by Police

Prisoners Say They Were Told To Refuse COVID Tests To Keep Rates Low

‘Mask-Free’ Wisconsin Coffee Shop to Close After Losing Lease

Who is policing student behavior on campus? Residence hall advisers and students themselves.

Daily coronavirus cases in the U.S. fall below 50,000 for seven straight days after summer surge

Virginia Plans Mandatory COVID-19 Vaccinations For All Residents

Childcare Centers in States With Little COVID Can Safely Reopen, Study Suggests

Dozens of COVID-19 vaccines are in development. Here are the ones to follow.

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

Bank Supervision Adapts To Pandemic Challenges

Average-Inflation Targeting And The Effective Lower Bound

Will The Covid-19 Pandemic Lead To Job Reallocation And Persistent Unemployment?

The Worst Is Still Ahead

The Partisan Pandemic: Do We Now Live In Alternative Realities?

What’s In That Wildfire Smoke, And Why Is It So Bad For Your Lungs?

Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts

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