Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 2.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus have worsened and are now 2.0 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- CDC says U.S. could control coronavirus in 12 weeks if most Americans wear masks, social distance
- CDC Director ‘Hopeful’ Pandemic Will End by Spring
- COVID-19 cases increased by 10% or more in a dozen states this week as compared with last week
- Saliva COVID Tests Have Real Potential, FDA Leader Says
- These variables affect whether you live, die or get help during the pandemic
- Even Covid-19 tests that aren’t perfect can help control the pandemic
- CDC: COVID-19 Patients Should Delay Flu Shot
- CMS Warns of COVID-19 Spike in Nursing Homes
- Stimulus Check, Unemployment Boost Didn’t Prevent Americans Burning Through Emergency Savings
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 21 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 21 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 46,515 | 5,570,000 | 254,121 | 22,710,000 | 18.3% | 24.5% |
| Deaths** | 1,078 | 174,255 | 6,310 | 794,104 | 17.1% | 21.9% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.92* | 210.21* | ||||
* as of 20 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
The following is the CDC’s ensemble forecast for deaths published today:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
CDC says U.S. could control coronavirus in 12 weeks if most Americans wear masks, social distance – CNBC
The U.S. could get the coronavirus pandemic under control if most Americans wear masks, embrace social distancing and practice good hand hygiene for up to three months, the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.
“It’s in our hands, within our grasp,” CDC Director Robert Redfield told reporters on a conference call. “But it is going to require all of us to embrace these mitigation steps. And we’re going to need to do that four, six, eight, 10, 12 weeks and then we will see this outbreak under control.”
At least 90% of Americans need to wear masks, social distance and wash hands regularly, he said.
“I think we’re seeing progress over the last four weeks, I hope that progress will continue, but I think none of us should turn away from the recognition that it’s key each of us recognize we want to make sure Covid stops with us,” he said.
CDC chief says coronavirus deaths should start falling across US by next week – The Hill
- Daily coronavirus deaths have consistently topped 1,000.
- CDC Director Robert Redfield says deaths are a lagging indicator, and he expects to see a decline in mortality across the country.
- The health official said the U.S. is beginning to turn the tide on the outbreak in the south, but there are worrying figures being reported in parts of Middle America.
CDC Director ‘Hopeful’ Pandemic Will End by Spring – Newsweek
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is “hopeful” that the COVID-19 pandemic will be over by spring next year …
CDC director Robert Redfield made the comments while discussing recent developments in the pandemic, the U.S. response, and prospects for the coming months, during an interview on the JAMA Network YouTube channel.
“I’m hopeful that the steps we take to prevent COVID are going to prevent flu and other respiratory viruses, Redfield said. “People are going to realize this is the year to get flu vaccine and we’ll begin to see our nation get through this pandemic.”
“As we then—and I do anticipate it will happen—begin to deploy an efficacious and safe COVID vaccine, then hopefully when you and I talk next spring we’ll have this pandemic behind us.”
WHO warns coronavirus vaccine alone won’t end pandemic: ‘We cannot go back to the way things were’ – CNBC
- World leaders and the public must learn to manage the virus and make permanent adjustments to their daily lives to bring the virus down to low levels, the WHO said.
- Throughout history, outbreaks and pandemics have changed economies and societies, the agency said.
COVID-19 cases increased by 10% or more in a dozen states this week as compared with last week – CNN
States across the US are now seeing a decline in coronavirus cases, a US top official said this week, though he warned things could quickly change again if Americans aren’t careful.
Trends are now “going in the right direction,” said Adm. Brett Giroir, the Trump administration physician overseeing US coronavirus testing, attributing the decline in part to safety protocols such as masks and social distancing.
State leaders who have reported a leveling of new cases also attribute it to adherence to safety guidelines. In Washington state, where health officials say the rate of new cases is slowing, “face coverings have made a difference,” Secretary of Health Dr. John Wiesman said.In California, health officials reported 5,920 new cases of coronavirus Thursday, making it the fifth day with confirmed infections below the state’s 14-day average of 8,198. Both the 7-day and 14-day positivity rate stand at 6.6%, according to data from the California Department of Public Health.
Twelve states’ average daily cases have risen at least 10% against the previous week, including Hawaii, Johns Hopkins data show. Hawaii’s state capital dramatically tightened restrictions on gatherings — both indoors and outdoors — in an effort to control a surge of cases.
Saliva COVID Tests Have Real Potential, FDA Leader Says – MedPage
The saliva-based test “really has potential” as a more convenient COVID-19 diagnostic, said Anand Shah, MD, the Deputy Commissioner for Medical and Scientific Affairs at FDA, during a virtual press event Thursday morning.
And he maintained that evaluations of vaccine candidates at the agency “are completely independent” of the federal government’s funded efforts.
Shah declined to explain why the FDA halted an emergency use authorization (EUA) for convalescent plasma (deferring the question to FDA’s scientific team at its biologics center), declined to estimate vaccine readiness, and sidestepped a question about the impact of President Donald Trump’s comments on a vaccine timeline.
The FDA has granted more than 200 EUA’s to diagnostic and antibody tests for COVID-19, he said, including the saliva test that Yale researchers are examining among National Basketball Association personnel. That “really has potential to greatly expand the testing capacity and make it much easier for patients,” he said of the Yale test, the fifth saliva-based test authorized by the FDA.
Commenting on Wednesday’s announcement from the Trump administration that it would allow tests developed by individual laboratories to be used without the FDA reviewing them, Shah said he hopes this will permit more rapid testing without hindering the review process.
Pfizer and BioNTech said their COVID-19 vaccine is on track to seek regulatory review of BNT162b2 as early as October 2020 – Pfizer
- In a Phase 1 study in the U.S., at 7 days after a second dose of 30μg, BNT162b2 elicited SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing geometric mean titers (GMTs) in younger adults (18-55 years of age) that were 3.8 times the GMT of a panel of 38 sera of SARS-CoV-2 convalescent patients, and in older adults (65-85 years of age) the vaccine candidate elicited a neutralizing GMT 1.6 times the GMT of the same panel, demonstrating strong immunogenicity in younger and older adults.
- The companies previously announced that BNT162b2-vaccinated human participants displayed a favorable breadth of epitopes recognized in T cell responses specific to the SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen, and that BNT162b2 demonstrated concurrent induction of high magnitude CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses against the receptor binding domain (RBD) and against the remainder of the spike glycoprotein
- Across all populations, BNT162b2 administration was well tolerated with mild to moderate fever in fewer than 20% of the participants
- These results informed the selection of the BNT162b2 candidate for the pivotal Phase 2/3 global study in up to 30,000 participants that started in July 2020, which has to date enrolled more than 11,000 participants, including in areas with significant SARS-CoV-2 transmission
- Assuming clinical success, Pfizer and BioNTech are on track to seek regulatory review of BNT162b2 as early as October 2020 and, if regulatory authorization or approval is obtained, currently plan to supply up to 100 million doses worldwide by the end of 2020 and approximately 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021
Walgreens, CVS urge early flu shots due to COVID-19 similarities – UPI
U.S. drugstore chains Walgreens and CVS said Monday they’re undertaking early efforts to encourage Americans to get their flu shots — due to an increased risk of harm this year due to COVID-19.
Walgreens said Monday flu shots are now available at its U.S. locations and CVS Health said it plans to double up supplies.
Walgreens said vaccinations can be done at nearly 9,100 locations, which are operating under heightened safety protocols.
The retailer said manufacturers are making extra flu vaccine doses available to meet the anticipated demand for flu shots this season.
“The convergence of COVID-19 and flu season means that flu vaccinations are critical,” Walgreens Chief Medical Officer Dr. Kevin Ban said in a statement.
These variables affect whether you live, die or get help during the pandemic – CNN
As the US continues to grapple with the dual crises of coronavirus and racism, two things have become clear: People of color are being hit hardest by the virus, and systemic inequities are largely to blame.
Eight months into the pandemic, race and ethnicity data on Covid-19 now paint a more complete picture than before. The numbers are stark, confirming what experts and minority communities have long suspected.
Black, Latino and Native American people are nearly three times as likely to be infected with Covid-19 than their White counterparts. Those three groups are about five times as likely to be hospitalized. And people of color across the board are more likely to die of the virus.
The statistics are no coincidence: Public health officials have long known that systemic racism is a public health issue. But the coronavirus pandemic, set against a national reckoning on race since the killing of George Floyd, has amplified the problem.
“What Covid-19 does is actually shine a light on a problem that was already there,” said Dr. Lisa Cooper, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Equity.
- Race affects where you live
- It affects whether you can work from home
- It affects your risk of severe illness
- It affects your access to medical care
Even Covid-19 tests that aren’t perfect can help control the pandemic – STAT
Akey component to managing the Covid-19 pandemic is frequent, rapid, and routine testing of a large number of Americans — including those without symptoms. With public discussion of this issue has come increased scrutiny of the accuracy of Covid-19 tests, especially the rapid point-of-care tests whose results can come back in a matter of minutes.
Yet these discussions rarely explain what test accuracy actually means, and how it should be used in clinical decision-making. Without this understanding, it is impossible to make truly informed decisions about whether and how these rapid point-of-care tests should be used. And the focus on accuracy obscures an important point: even tests that aren’t perfect can play important roles in controlling this pandemic.
Fortunately, there is a precise way to evaluate the accuracy and interpretation of tests like these. Called Bayes’ Theorem, it can help make sense of the current situation by showing us that the usefulness of a test depends not just on how accurate it is but also on how likely someone is to have the condition it is testing for.
Test characteristics are usually reported in terms of their sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity, sometimes called the true positive rate, tells you what percentage of people who have the disease you are testing for (like Covid-19) will test positive. Specificity, sometimes called the true negative rate, tells you what percentage of people who don’t have the disease will test negative.
In other words, in a theoretical group of 100 people infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, how many would have a positive test? And in a theoretical group of 100 people not infected with the virus, how many of would have a negative Covid-19 test?
[editor’s note: you need to read the entire article]
CDC: COVID-19 Patients Should Delay Flu Shot – MedPage
Patients with COVID-19 should delay getting their influenza vaccine, not because of any evidence about how the virus affects vaccination, but in order to ensure others in the healthcare setting are not exposed unnecessarily, CDC officials said on a call with clinicians on Thursday.
Routine vaccination should be deferred for patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, regardless of symptoms, and patients should be screened for COVID-19 symptoms before and during the visit. In addition, clinicians should don personal protective equipment (PPE) during vaccination, including masks, eye protection and gloves, when appropriate.
On a Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA) call entitled “2020-2021 Influenza Vaccination Recommendations and Clinical Guidance during the COVID-19 Pandemic,” agency officials attempted to navigate through uncharted waters in infectious diseases, as COVID-19 is set to collide with influenza season.
CMS Warns of COVID-19 Spike in Nursing Homes – MedPage
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) wants nursing homes to ramp up efforts to control COVID-19 inside facilities after the number of residents infected with and dying from the highly contagious virus has reached a record high.
In the early spring, the number of virus cases in nursing homes was about 11,000 a week, which dropped to 6,319 cases by the end of June, CMS Administrator Seema Verma told facility operators last week in a conference call. But CMS strike force teams have found “significant deficiencies in infection control practices” that have pushed up weekly cases to about 12,000 by the end of July, she said. “And we’re seeing an uptick unfortunately in the losses.”
Residents in about half the nation’s nursing homes have been infected, Verma told MedPage Today in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.
“This is not just a testing issue or a supply issue,” Verma explained in last week’s conference call. “Our deep concern is that even in nursing homes that are doing testing on a regular basis, we are still seeing significant spread,” she said. One or two cases in a home can spread to half of its residents “in a matter of hours,” Verma warned. “We could have a more significant crisis on our hands.”
Recovery is uneven across US economy and not enough to lift it out of recession quickly – The Conference Board
The reopening of the economy has created a rebound in parts of the economy since May. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)*for theUS, which is a composite average of ten components, has improved since reopening and increased further in July by 1.4 percent. However, the LEI is now still 13.4 percent lower than its peak in January 2020. If we look closer at the individual components of the LEI, we see that despite these modest improvements, some financial and nonfinancial components lag behind. The chart shows how much different components contributed to the decline in the LEI during the initial pandemic period (February to April) and to its rise during the reopening period (May to July). In the first period, all components went into contraction except the interest rate spread (purple bars). When parts of the economy began to reopen in May and June (green bars), labor markets and stock markets improved. However, gains in manufacturing and residential construction were dwarfed in comparison. Despite those positive signs, financial conditions measured by the Leading Credit Index™ and the consumer outlook on business conditions have both remained in the negative since May. This points to an economy with a high risk of losing steam at the end of the year. Without more broad-based improvement, the economy won’t have enough positive momentum to recover by year’s end, and it will take longer to get out of the deep COVID-19 recession.
*The LEI is a composite average of ten individual leading indicators and summarizes common trends in economic data. It helps to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle and the future direction of the economy. For the latest data, press release, and technical notes visit our Business Cycle Indicators page.
Stimulus Check, Unemployment Boost Didn’t Prevent Americans Burning Through Emergency Savings – Newsweek
A large number of Americans have less emergency savings than they did at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, despite the initial offer of individual stimulus checks and a boost to unemployment benefits, a new poll has found.
The latest survey from Bankrate found that a little more than a third of Americans reported having lower emergency savings as extra unemployment assistance was set to expire and the first round of stimulus checks had been spent.
By comparison, only 13 percent of U.S. adults said they had more savings than when the COVID-19 pandemic began. A further 16 percent told pollsters they felt “very comfortable” with their emergency savings balance.
Some 47 percent of Americans said their emergency savings accounts were in the same state as they were before the ongoing crisis.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Italy Sees 845 New COVID-19 Cases, Highest Since End of Lockdown in May
Russia Says Countries Have Launched ‘War’ Against Its Vaccine, Claims a Billion Doses Requested
Renowned EU Scientist: COVID-19 Was Engineered In China Lab, Effective Vaccine “Unlikely”
Sweden’s Lead Epidemiologist: Wearing Face Masks Is “Very Dangerous”
COVID-19 continues to ravage Iranian society: Will the regime survive the public’s wrath?
At least 41 schools in Berlin report coronavirus cases
Nebraska links seven coronavirus cases to Sturgis, SD, motorcycle rally
South Korea threatens to detain people who obstruct virus-control efforts.
A troubled state in Myanmar adds the virus to its list of problems.
Hong Kong to roll out testing services and makeshift hospitals, courtesy of Beijing.
Hong Kong to begin mass COVID-19 testing on Sep 1
Lebanon nightly curfew now in effect as country records highest daily case increase
Spain’s epidemic “out of control” in certain areas, says health emergencies director
It’s official — citizens in China’s capital don’t have to wear masks outside anymore
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Texas county adds ‘no confidence’ disclaimer to COVID-19 dashboard
American Airlines seeks to toss COVID-19 class-action suit seeking ticket refunds
How The Coronavirus Has Affected Individual Members Of Congress
Hydroxychloroquine Protocol Continues Getting Censored
New Ebola outbreak in Congo raises alarm
Top FDA official vows to resign if Trump approves vaccine not proven to be safe
Trump administration bars FDA review of some coronavirus tests
U.S. Coronavirus Cases Are Rising in These 15 States
Syracuse Suspends 23 Students After Hundreds Attend Party Held On Campus
N.Y. Nurses Say Used N95 Masks are Being Re-Packed in Boxes to Look New
This weekend’s Mets-Yankees series has been canceled as the Mets grapple with two infections.
As deadly fires spread through California, first responders lack a crucial part of their emergency response team: prison inmate firefighters.
Up to 60 million Americans may have been infected with coronavirus, CDC director says
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
14 August 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues Is Nearing Expansion
July 2020 Headline Existing Home Sales Second Month Of Significant Sales Gain
Rail Week Ending 15 August 2020 – Intermodal Remains In Expansion
The Financial State Of The United States Postal Service
Getting A Flu Shot This Year Is More Important Than Ever Because Of COVID-19
Wildfires Rage In California As Fire Crews And Evacuees Grapple With COVID-19 Risks
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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