Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 3.8 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.6 % lower the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Lawsuit raises concern over COVID-19 and meat processing
- Why Some People Are Waiting Weeks for Their COVID-19 Test Results
- Nursing homes, the center of the U.S. pandemic, are seeking protection against lawsuits
- How to care for your face mask
- What will happen if we cannot produce a coronavirus vaccine?
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 16 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 16 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 48,085 | 5,360,000 | 258,074 | 21,470,000 | 18.6% | 25.0% |
| Deaths** | 1,035 | 169,481 | 5,647 | 766,080 | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.66* | 195.20* | ||||
* as of 13 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Charts Comparing Last Week To Previous Weeks
Global new cases last week increased (but not a record) whilst U.S. new cases modestly declined.
Global deaths last week increased (but not a record) whilst U.S. deaths modestly declined.
But the good news is that both global and U.S. infection fatality rate continues to improve.
And for a review of the coronavirus headlines for last week, we have published two summary articles today:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
As the United States struggles to control the COVID-19 pandemic, people across the country are using Twitter to announce the arrival of their virus test results. The point of these tweets is not just to broadcast the result itself, but to point out the absurdity of receiving a result so stale that it’s almost completely useless from a public health standpoint.
Social media posts from July and August make clear a frustrating reality: some Americans are getting their results in mere hours, while others are waiting days, even weeks. To illustrate the problem, TIME set out to create a map showing average test result wait times across the country. What we found instead was that wait times are not just a product of geography, but also of a messy, disparate system of labs and agencies all grappling with supply shortages, logistical challenges, and a lack of federal guidance. The chaos is all but impossible to neatly map and track—but what we learned along the way sheds light on a fundamentally broken system that’s hampering the country’s ability to effectively respond to the pandemic.
When a person gets tested for COVID-19 in the U.S., it’s not always obvious where their saliva sample or nasal swab will end up. Of the more than 700,000 samples taken daily, about half are routed to hospital labs, university labs and public laboratories. The other half are sent to 12 major commercial laboratories, including Quest Diagnostics, LabCorp and Aegis Sciences Corp, which have numerous facilities around the country that serve specific states or regions.
… But the system as a whole wasn’t ready for such an unprecedented ramp-up. Addressing the shortages of nasal swabs, reagents, trained lab personnel, and testing machines has been a game of whack-a-mole. If supplies can’t be delivered, a lab that’s already receiving as many tests as it can handle will inevitably fall behind. Labs across the country can’t order supplies fast enough and manufacturers can’t make them fast enough.
… Furthermore, U.S. labs are not set up to easily collaborate, making it hard to predict where the next bottleneck is going to pop up. Nada Sanders, professor of supply chain management at Northeastern University, says that without a national, authoritative body to oversee all the moving parts, every stage of the U.S. testing system, including the testing sites, the labs and the manufacturers, will continue to be overwhelmed.
Nursing homes, the center of the U.S. pandemic, are seeking protection against lawsuits. – New York Times
Nursing homes have been the center of America’s coronavirus outbreak, with more than 62,000 residents and staff members dying from Covid-19 at such homes and other long-term care facilities — about 40 percent of the country’s virus fatalities. Now, the lightly regulated industry is campaigning in Washington for federal help that could increase its profits.
It is hardly unusual for embattled industries to seek help from Washington. But instead of relying only on trade associations, some of the country’s largest nursing-home companies have assembled a fleet of lobbyists, many with close ties to the Trump administration. Among these companies are some with long histories of safety violations and misusing public funds.
One of the industry’s biggest goals is for the federal government to block residents and their families from suing nursing homes for wrongful deaths and filing other malpractice claims — even those that have nothing to do with Covid-19.
… The industry has successfully lobbied at least 20 states to gain immunity from lawsuits in state courts. But the federal Safe to Work Act would also apply to deaths that occurred months before the virus began spreading.
How to care for your face mask (and why you shouldn’t hang it from your rear-view mirror) – Washington Post
People must remember to wash or sanitize their hands immediately after handling their masks.
Masks should probably not be hung on the rearview mirror of a car … [if you] have the air conditioner blasting, is what’s on that mask now blowing around inside my car
For cloth masks, which have exploded in popularity in recent months, all three experts say daily washings are a must.
Given the limited supply of these single-use masks, it is not uncommon for people, especially health care workers, to wear the same one more than once.
In the case of surgical or N95 masks, sunlight could actually be a bad thing [to sanitize for reuse]
The US Postal Service warned almost all of the 50 states and Washington, DC, that voters could be at risk of not getting their ballots back to election offices in time to be counted because election rules are not compatible with the time needed for delivery and return of absentee ballots through the mail, according to letters released on Friday night.
The letters provide a stark reminder that the expansion of mail-in voting due to the pandemic is colliding with a slowdown in postal delivery because of controversial changes made by the new postmaster general.
Most states were informed in late July by the service’s general counsel that postal service analysis suggests local deadlines for requesting and returning ballots did not allow for enough time based on delivery estimates.
The letters varied based on state rules, with a few states deemed to having sufficient time built in, according to the postal service assessment. Only Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon and Rhode Island were informed by USPS that they shouldn’t expect problems, according to the letters.
What will happen if we cannot produce a coronavirus vaccine? – COVID19data
There are over 175 Covid-19 vaccines in development. Almost all government strategies for dealing with the coronavirus pandemic are based on the idea that one of these vaccine candidates will eventually provide widespread protection against the virus and enable us all to return to our normal lives.
But there’s no guarantee that this will happen. Even in the most promising cases, we cannot yet be sure that any vaccine will permanently prevent people from catching Covid-19 and enable the disease to be gradually eradicated or at least contained to limited outbreaks. Vaccines may just reduce the severity of symptoms or provide temporary protection. So what will happen if this is the case?
Some people have argued that when enough of the population have caught Covid-19, and produced an immune response to it, we will have reached “herd immunity” and the virus will no longer be able to spread. But this is a misunderstanding of what herd immunity means and how viruses spread and so is not a realistic aim for Covid-19 control.
Herd immunity is what enables us to eliminate diseases using vaccines. The percentage of a population who need be to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity is calculated using the basic reproductive rate (R0).
… Scientists think that the R0 value for SARS-CoV-2 is between 4 and 6, which is similar to that of the rubella virus. The level of vaccination needed to produce herd immunity to and eliminate rubella is 85 per cent.
… the natural rates of resistance are a long way from the 85 per cent that could be needed for herd immunity. And that means that, without a vaccine, the virus could become endemic, permanently present in the population like the coronaviruses that cause colds.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
China Says COVID Vaccines Must Have 50% Efficacy Rate to Be Approved
South Korea warns of another outbreak tied to a church.
UAE, Israeli companies sign ‘strategic commercial agreement’ on coronavirus R&D
Japan reports over 1,000 new coronavirus cases for third consecutive day
New Zealand reports 13 new cases, as the most populous city goes back under lockdown
Brazil reports more than 40,000 new coronavirus cases and more than 700 new deaths
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
$2 COVID-19 Fee Applied to Orders Over $10 at Denver Restaurant
Travelers to New York say they’re quarantining. Their social media says otherwise.
UNC-Chapel Hill reports third cluster of COVID-19 cases
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Mexico Sees Historic Drop In Economic Growth In Second Quarter Outlook Worsens
COVID-19 Response In Emerging Market Economies: Conventional Policies And Beyond
A Monthly Peek Into Americans’ Credit During The COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 16August 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 16August 2020
From Russia Without Love: A Risky Vaccine
U.S. Bankruptcies At 10-Year High As Pandemic Takes Its Toll
The Second Great Depression But Not Really
How One Community Improved COVID-19 Nursing Home Care With Collaboration And Communication
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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