Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is 2.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are now 11.8 % lower the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Emergency medicine physician says patients’ hearts are “on fire” due to Covid-19
- The F.D.A. gives emergency approval for a new spit test
- No Clear Timeline for COVID-19 Vaccine
- A pandemic-induced public transit crisis is borne unequally and expected to get worse
- The US economy as a whole remains at risk
- NEW CDC GUIDANCE SAYS COVID-19 RATES IN CHILDREN ARE ‘STEADILY INCREASING’
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 15 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 15 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 64,838 | 5,310,000 | 263,232 | 21,160,000 | 24.6% | 25.1% |
| Deaths** | 1,336 | 168,446 | 6,244 | 760,421 | 21.4% | 22.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.66* | 195.20* | ||||
* as of 13 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Forty percent of U.S. Covid-19 tests come back too late to be clinically meaningful, data show – CNBC
- CNBC and Dynata ran a survey of more than 9,400 Americans in all 50 states to get a sense of testing turnaround times for Covid-19.
- Experts say results need to be returned in less than three days, optimally two, to be clinically meaningful.
- The results showed almost 40% of tests take longer than that.
Emergency medicine physician says patients’ hearts are “on fire” due to Covid-19 – CNN
The American Heart Association recently warned that coronavirus can cause “devastating” and lasting cardiac complications. While the warning is concerning, it is not news to those treating coronavirus patients on the frontlines, said Dr. Dara Kass, an emergency medicine physician at Columbia University Medical School.
“Basically this virus can put some patients’ bodies on fire, including their hearts,” Kass said. “We’re seeing this damage happen in patients that are 30, 40 and 50 years old. These aren’t the patients that are elderly and immunocompromised … They’re the patients that are surviving this virus, but now they’re going to have a new chronic medical condition related to surviving this virus that we need to recognize and treat.”
The F.D.A. gives emergency approval for a new spit test as U.S. testing stalls. – New York Times
With the United States facing an alarming drop in coronavirus testing that threatens to undermine national monitoring efforts, the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency authorization for a new saliva-based test to detect the virus.
The new test, SalivaDirect, was developed by researchers at Yale University with some of the funding coming from the N.B.A. and the National Basketball Players Association, the university announced on Saturday in a news release. The method, it said, was being further validated through testing of asymptomatic N.B.A. players and staff members.
SalivaDirect is not the first test of its kind to secure the F.D.A.’s backing — a lab affiliated with Rutgers University received emergency authorization in May for a similar test.
No Clear Timeline for COVID-19 Vaccine – MedPage
President Trump appears to be the most optimistic person in his administration. “It will happen before the end of the year — maybe substantially before, but before the end of the year,” he said Thursday in a press briefing. And only a week earlier, during a press briefing on the South Lawn, a reporter asked him, “You said that a vaccine can be ready around November 3rd,” which is Election Day. “Are you optimistic that that will happen?” Trump responded, “I am. I’m [optimistic] that it’ll be probably around that date. I believe we’ll have the vaccine before the end of the year certainly, but around that date, yes. I think so.”
Other administration officials are a little more cautious, however. “We now have six vaccines under contract — four of those six have already reported out positive phase I clinical trial data, meaning they provided neutralizing antibodies at a level at or above what people recovering from COVID-19 produce in their own bodies,” and the safety profile has not shown several adverse events, Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told MedPage Today during a call with reporters Tuesday evening.
In addition, “two of the six vaccines we’re invested in initiated weeks ago in phase III clinical trials, and we have more that will enter phase III in the near term,” Azar said. “We believe that it is highly credible we’ll have in the high tens of millions of doses of gold-standard safe and effective vaccine by the end of this year and many hundreds of millions of doses as we go into the beginning of next year.”
… Francis Collins, MD, PhD, director of the National Institutes of Health, was even more conservative. Asked on a press call Thursday about messages to states to have distribution plans ready by October 1 in case vaccine doses were available, Collins said that having a vaccine by October 1 “would be astounding.”
“The only way I could imagine that is if in fact one of the phase III trials now underway enrolled at record speed and turned out to be 100% effective and would therefore be judged safe and effective even before they’d have gotten all the volunteers signed up that they expected,” he said. “That would be a number of unlikelihoods piled on top of each other. I would not expect to see, on the basis of what we know scientifically, that we’d be at the point where FDA would have a chance to make such a judgment until considerably later than October 1. Maybe November or December would be my best bet.”
While COVID-19 is having a different impact on each state, the US economy as a whole remains at risk – The Conference Board
While each individual state in the US is fighting its own battle against COVID-19, the economy of the entire nation is at risk. That said, varied testing capacity, policy guidance, and social distancing criteria make it difficult to know how large this risk really is. The World Health Organization (WHO) has provided some helpful guidance to leaders around the world, however. According to the WHO, a government should resist the urge to reopen if COVID-19 positivity rates (the share of COVID-19 tests that come back positive) exceed 5% over a 14-day period. While positivity rates in each US state are subject to sample bias related to the state’s testing policies, the data are still a useful benchmark. By juxtaposing these rates against each state’s economic output (we use 4Q19 Gross State Product), a clearer picture of how much of the US economy is exposed to the virus and potential lockdowns emerges. Only 14 states in the US currently meet the WHO’s 5% criterion. The remaining 36 states (75% of US GDP) are grappling with positivity rates above 5%, and 13 of those (29% of US GDP) are registering positivity rates of 10% or higher—twice the WHO’s cutoff. While these numbers appear to have been improving in recent weeks, policymakers and business leaders should monitor them closely as they work to balance the public health risks with the risk to the US economy.
Measure the risk of airborne COVID-19 in your office, classroom, or bus ride – National Geographic
A recent modeling effort may help provide some clues. Led by Jose-Luis Jimenez at the University of Colorado Boulder, the charts below estimate the riskiness of different activities based on one potential route of coronavirus spread: itty-bitty particles known as aerosols. (Read more about what “airborne coronavirus” means and how to protect yourself).
Success Reported With HAE Tx in Severe COVID-19 – MedPage
Promising results in small study; not a randomized trial, however.
Hospitalized COVID-19 patients who received icatibant (Firazyr), the bradykinin inhibitor normally used for hereditary angioedema (HAE), had less need for oxygen supplementation compared to controls, a small retrospective study from the Netherlands found.
Of the nine total patients receiving icatibant, four were no longer oxygen dependent within 10 to 35 hours, and eight of nine saw a reduction in oxygen supplementation of 3 L/min or greater within 24 hours, reported Frank L. van de Veerdonk, MD, PhD, of Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen, the Netherlands, and colleagues, writing in a research letter in JAMA Network Open.
Among controls, only three of 18 showed spontaneous reduction in oxygen supplementation of 3 L/min or greater within 24 hours.
However, three patients treated with icatibant also had a resurgence in the need for oxygen supplementation, the authors noted. They also added icatibant has a short half life of about 2 hours, which may have contributed to this resurgence.
CDC backtracks guidance on three-month window of immunity – The Hill
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) backtracked guidance it issued earlier this month, maintaining that people are not immune to reinfection to the coronavirus after recovering from the disease.
“On August 3, 2020, CDC updated its isolation guidance based on the latest science about COVID-19 showing that people can continue to test positive for up to 3 months after diagnosis and not be infectious to others. Contrary to media reporting today, this science does not imply a person is immune to reinfection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, in the 3 months following infection,” the CDC said in a press release.
“The latest data simply suggests that retesting someone in the 3 months following initial infection is not necessary unless that person is exhibiting the symptoms of COVID-19 and the symptoms cannot be associated with another illness,” it added.
The statement marks a reversal from guidance the CDC issued earlier this month saying that a person who has recovered from COVID-19 will likely be safe from reinfection for three months. The earlier guidance represented the first recognition of a defined immunity period for people who have recovered from the coronavirus.
A pandemic-induced public transit crisis is borne unequally and expected to get worse. – New York Times
As U.S. cities’ transit budgets have been crippled by the pandemic, passengers have endured long waits amid reduced service, and then often boarded crowded trains or buses, raising fears of exposure to the coronavirus.
Public transit leaders across the country have issued dire warnings to Congress, saying that the $25 billion in aid they received in March is quickly drying up. And without more help, they say, their systems will face a death spiral, in which cuts to service make public transit less convenient for the public, prompting further drops in ridership that lead to spiraling revenue loss and more service cuts.
Yet Congress has shown few signs that it will soon pass another stimulus package or that such a deal would include any of the $32 billion in new assistance that transit experts say is needed.
“It seems like we’re invisible, and they don’t care about us,” said Nina Red, a New Orleans resident who said her bus trip to the grocery store now sometimes took almost three hours instead of the usual one.
Ridership on top city systems has declined 70 to 90 percent during the pandemic, and sales tax revenue, which fuels many transit agency budgets, has cratered because of a collapsing economy.
NEW CDC GUIDANCE SAYS COVID-19 RATES IN CHILDREN ARE ‘STEADILY INCREASING’ – WLFI
Health experts say children make up more than 7% of all coronavirus cases in the US — while comprising about 22% of the country’s population — and the number and rate of child cases have been “steadily increasing” from March to July.
The data was posted alongside updated guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for pediatricians that also includes what is known about the virus in children.
“Recent evidence suggests that children likely have the same or higher viral loads in their nasopharynx compared with adults and that children can spread the virus effectively in households and camp settings,” the guidance states.
Transmission of the virus to and among children may have been reduced in spring and early summer due to mitigation measures like stay-at-home orders and school closures, the CDC says.
But now, schools and universities across the country are reopening and in some cases have had to readjust their approach following positive tests among students and staff. How to safely welcome students back has been an ongoing debate between local and state leaders as some push for a return to normalcy and others fear returning to class could prove deadly for some. In some cases, teachers have opted to resign rather than risk contracting the virus.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New Zealand Investigates A Mystery: Where Did Its New Cases Come From?
Spain Cracks Down On Outdoor Drinking, Smoking In Renewed Push Against COVID-19
Only 11 Percent of Brazilians Blame President for COVID-19 Death Toll: Poll
Production of COVID-19 Vaccine Starts in Russia, Medics Refuse to Take It
Brazil has become a vital player in the race to develop a coronavirus vaccine.
Government of Mexico decrees 30-day national mourning in solidarity with victims of COVID-19
Coronavirus UPDATES: UK cases soar by more than 1,000 for the fifth day in a row
British tourists rush back from France to avoid quarantine
COVID-19 Vaccine Update: Russia Starts Production of Sputnik V, to be Rolled Out by End of August
Seoul reimposes social distancing measures after new coronavirus cases almost double in a day
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New York City’s Museums To Reopen As State’s COVID-19 Numbers Continue To Tick Down
Las Vegas hospital workers call for proOn Now:Watch Island News Live Stream
be into conditions during pandemic
Arizona School District Delays Reopening After Teachers Refuse to Show Up
Lincoln Riley: Nine Sooners Test Positive For COVID-19
7,000 Alabama children ages 5-17 have tested positive for coronavirus since March, ADPH says
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Tracking The COVID-19 Economy With The Weekly Economic Index WEI
Aussie Dollar Soars To Multi-Month High: You Can’t Have Your Fed Stimulus Boost AND Eat It Too
Housing Distress In The Time Of COVID-19
Infographic Of The Day: Cybersecurity For The Post-COVID Economy
Up To 204,691 Extra Deaths In The US So Far In This Pandemic Year
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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