Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 6.0 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are worse and are now 3.3 % above the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Empty apartments in Manhattan reach record high, topping 13,000
- U.S. Bankruptcies at 10-Year High As Pandemic Takes Its Toll
- ‘Con Air’ Is Spreading COVID-19 All Over the U.S. Prison System
- COVID-19 Was Worse Than the Flu in NYC… the 1918 Flu
- Updated phase I/II results with Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s RNA vaccine
- Emails from Sweden’s Fauci Reveal Discussions About Now-Failed Plan to Reach ‘Herd Immunity’
- Young people have reported higher levels of anxiety and depression during the pandemic
- COVID-19 pandemic costs the global economy $375 billion a month
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 13 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 13 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 55,941 | 5,200,000 | 279,854 | 20,610,000 | 20.0% | 25.2% |
| Deaths** | 1,490 | 166,027 | 7,018 | 749,444 | 21.2% | 22.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.23* | 191.09* | ||||
* as of 11 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Empty apartments in Manhattan reach record high, topping 13,000 – CNBC
- The number of apartments for rent, or listing inventory, more than doubled over last year and set a record for the 14 years since data started being collected, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.
- While hundreds of thousands of residents left the city in March and April in the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, brokers and landlords hoped many would start returning in July and August.
- July’s weakness, and what brokers say is already a slow August, suggests that Manhattan’s real estate and economic troubles could extend well into the fall or beyond.
U.S. Bankruptcies at 10-Year High As Pandemic Takes Its Toll – Statista
As the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the U.S. economy, bankruptcies are on track to hit the highest level in at least 10 years according to figures compiled by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
According to the analysis, which only includes public companies and private companies with public debt and/or assets/liabilities over $2 million or $10 million, respectively, 424 companies announced their bankruptcy through August 9 this year, up 22 percent from the same period last year and the highest level since 2010.
Consumer-focused companies were most affected by the pandemic, with more than 100 of them filing for bankruptcy this year. Due to the lockdown, the already battered retail sector was hit by a wave of bankruptcies that swept away household names such as J.Crew, Ascena Retail and J.C. Penney.
You will find more infographics at Statista
‘Con Air’ Is Spreading COVID-19 All Over the U.S. Prison System – Vice
The U.S. Marshals Service is responsible for moving people into, out of, and among far-flung federal prisons, handling most long-distance transfers and newly sentenced prisoners. It doesn’t put people in quarantine or give them virus tests before transporting them around the country. As a result, federal prisoners in Marshals custody are being shipped around the U.S. by plane, van, and bus with no way to know if they are carrying the virus, exposing other prisoners, staff, and possibly the public along the way.
According to whistleblower complaints obtained by VICE News and The Marshall Project, federal prisoners infected with the coronavirus have been shipped as far as Puerto Rico in recent weeks, and to federal lock-ups in Alabama and Florida. Bureau of Prisons employees say prisoners have also tested positive after being shuffled around to facilities in Colorado, Illinois, Texas, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana.
The Marshals say they aren’t required to do any testing because “an agreement was made” that the Bureau of Prisons would handle tests and quarantines once prisoners are transferred into its lock-ups. The BOP did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Justice Department, which oversees both agencies, said they “have taken, and will continue to take, aggressive steps to protect the safety and security of all staff, inmates, visitors, and members of the public.”
The True Coronavirus Toll in the U.S. Has Already Surpassed 200,000 – New York Times
Across the United States, at least 200,000 more people have died than usual since March, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.
As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus, as people die from the virus as well as by other causes linked to the pandemic.
COVID-19 Was Worse Than the Flu in NYC… the 1918 Flu – MedPage
Jumps in New York City’s overall mortality during its COVID-19 peak were even higher than in the 1918 flu pandemic there, researchers found.
From March 11 to May 11, COVID-19 was associated with four times as many expected deaths versus corresponding periods from 2017-2019 (incident rate ratio for all-cause mortality 4.15, 95% CI 4.05-4.24, whereas the 1918 flu pandemic was associated with almost three times as many expected New York City deaths versus corresponding periods in 1914-1917 (IRR 2.80, 95% CI 2.74-2.86), reported Jeremy Faust, MD, of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, and colleagues in a research letter in JAMA Network Open.
While the absolute increase in per-capita all-cause mortality was higher in 1918 than this year, the modern baseline was “less than half” of that in 1914-1917, due to improvements in hygiene, medicine treatment, and safety.
The White House released guidelines for reopening K-12 schools – Whitehouse
GENERAL RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ALL SCHOOLS:
- Ensure all students, teachers, and staff understand the symptoms of COVID-19 and its risk factors.
- Require all students, teachers, and staff to self-assess their health every morning before coming to school; if they are symptomatic they should consult their physician.
- Encourage frequent handwashing or hand sanitizing during the school day, beginning upon entrance to the school, by ensuring that handwashing facilities are widely available throughout the school.
- Minimize large indoor group gatherings; hold large gatherings outdoors whenever possible.
- Maintain high standards of hygiene and ventilation within all classrooms, including keeping windows and doors open and running fans and AC units whenever possible.
- Require students, teachers, and staff to socially distance around high-risk individuals.
- Encourage the use of masks when social distancing is not possible.
- Liberally post instructions regarding hygiene and social distancing around the school.
GUIDANCE TO PROTECT HIGH-RISK TEACHERS AND HIGH-RISK STUDENTS:
- Students, their families, teachers, and staff should consult with their medical providers to determine if they are at high-risk from COVID-19.
- Provide high-risk teachers the choice to stay home and engage in distance teaching.
- Provide high-risk students, or students who have high-risk family members, the choice to stay home and engage in distance learning.
- Provide high-risk staff options to modify their work routines.
- Strongly encourage high-risk students, teachers, and staff to maintain social distance, avoid crowded gatherings, and wear masks when social distancing is not possible.
- Train school medical personnel regarding the symptoms of COVID-19; maintain isolation areas for those who become symptomatic to use while they await transportation away from school.
Updated phase I/II results with Pfizer’s and BioNTech’s RNA vaccine – Nature
In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)1. With rapidly accumulating cases and deaths reported globally2, a vaccine is urgently needed. We report the available safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity data from an ongoing placebo-controlled, observer-blinded dose escalation study among 45 healthy adults, 18 to 55 years of age, randomized to receive 2 doses, separated by 21 days, of 10 µg, 30 µg, or 100 µg of BNT162b1, a lipid nanoparticle-formulated, nucleoside-modified mRNA vaccine that encodes trimerized SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein receptor-binding domain (RBD). Local reactions and systemic events were dose-dependent, generally mild to moderate, and transient. A second vaccination with 100 µg was not administered due to increased reactogenicity and a lack of meaningfully increased immunogenicity after a single dose compared to the 30 μg dose. RBD-binding IgG concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing titers in sera increased with dose level and after a second dose. Geometric mean neutralizing titers reached 1.9- to 4.6-fold that of a panel of COVID-19 convalescent human sera at least 14 days after a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR. These results support further evaluation of this mRNA vaccine candidate. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04368728).
Emails from Sweden’s Fauci Reveal Discussions About Now-Failed Plan to Reach ‘Herd Immunity’ – Newsweek
Newly-released emails show Sweden’s top epidemiologist brainstorming ways “herd immunity” could be achieved to limit the spread of COVID-19, an approach that was this week branded a failure by one academic study.
While governments around the world have used a variety of tactics in their attempts to stop the novel coronavirus from ravaging populations, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, favored a “common sense” strategy over forced lockdowns.
Swedish citizens were asked to voluntarily comply with social distancing and work from home rules, a tactic that reportedly led to higher rates of infection, hospitalization and death than some of its neighbors—including Norway, Denmark and Finland.
[editor’s note: this post goes on to discuss some of the emails Anders Tegnell sent]
Young people have reported higher levels of anxiety and depression during the pandemic, a new survey finds. – New York Times
The collateral damage from the pandemic continues: Young adults and Black and Latino people in particular describe rising levels of anxiety, depression and even suicidal thoughts, and increased substance abuse, according to findings reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In a survey, U.S. residents reported signs of eroding mental health, in reaction to the toll of coronavirus illnesses and deaths and to the life-altering restrictions imposed by lockdowns.
The researchers argue that the results point to an urgent need for expanded and culturally sensitive services for mental health and substance abuse. The online survey was completed by 5,470 people in late June. The prevalence of anxiety symptoms was three times as high as those reported in the second quarter of 2019, and depression was four times as high.
The impact was felt most keenly by young adults ages 18 to 24. According to Mark Czeisler, a researcher at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, nearly 63 percent had symptoms of anxiety or depression that they attributed to the pandemic and nearly a quarter had started or increased their uses of substances to cope with their emotions.
WHO says there’s ‘no evidence’ the coronavirus is being transmitted by food – CNBC
The World Health Organization said Thursday there is “no evidence” the coronavirus is being transmitted through food.
Researchers in China are studying the issue, and the international agency is tracking their findings, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies program, said during a press conference at the agency’s Geneva headquarters. But right now “there is no evidence that food or the food chain is participating in the transmission of this virus,” he said.
“People should not fear food, or food packaging or processing or delivery of food. Food is very important. And I would hate to think that we would create an impression that there’s a problem with our food or there’s a problem with our food chain. We’re under enough pressure as it is,” he said.
Three cities in China have reported finding the virus on the surface of imported frozen food over the last four days, raising concerns that the virus could be passed through food and lead to new outbreaks, according to NBC News.
WHO officials said Chinese health authorities have tested a “few hundred thousand” samples of frozen food and found “very, very few” tests come back positive. The officials said they have issued guidance with the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization on how food handlers can work with food safely.
Even if the virus did transmit through food, which evidence does not suggest, it can be killed before eating it, Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said.
COVID-19 pandemic costs global economy $375 billion a month, WHO says – CNN
The COVID-19 pandemic costs an estimated $375 billion a month globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) said, based on information from the International Monetary Fund.
During a Thursday news conference, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO’s director-deneral, said, “IMF estimates the pandemic costs the global economy 375 billion US dollars a month, and predicts a cumulative loss to the global economy over two years of over 12 trillion US dollars.”
“The world has already spent trillions dealing with the short term consequences of the pandemic,” Tedros added.
“G20 countries alone have mobilized more than 10 trillion US dollars in fiscal stimulus to treat and mitigate the consequences of the pandemic. That’s already more than three and a half times as much as the world spent in the entire response to the global financial crisis,” he said.
Tedros said that funding the WHO’s ACT Accelerator is “the best economic stimulus the world can invest” in.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Nearly 6% of people in England may have had COVID-19, researchers say
Russia says medics to get anti-COVID shots in two weeks, some Russians wary
Philippines plans Russian coronavirus vaccine clinical trials in October
India surpasses Britain in coronavirus deaths, with the world’s fourth-highest toll.
Antibody study finds 3.4 million in England had coronavirus
Critics of Sweden’s coronavirus strategy call for more restrictions
UN chief warns COVID-19 pandemic risks new conflicts
Chicken wings imported to China from Brazil test positive for COVID-19, Chinese officials say
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
As Coronavirus Batters Retailers, Mall Owner Simon Property Sees An Opportunity In Bankrupt Chains
Trillions in coronavirus spending is putting AOC’s favorite economic theory to the test
New Jersey schools, colleges can reopen for in-person education -governor
Coronavirus prompts closing of Georgia high school in district with over 1K in quarantine
Journalists mourn the loss of newsrooms as publishers give up office space to save money
COVID-19: How Did We Get Here? When Can We Get Out?
Big 12 Is Moving Ahead With Fall Football Season
U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Rising in These 7 States
ISIS Operative Charged With COVID Scam by DOJ, Allegedly Sold Fake PPE
Texas Positivity Reaches 24 Percent, and It’s Just Weeks Until Schools Open
Coronavirus Cases Plummet in Oklahoma City After Mask Ordinance Is Enforced
COVID-19 Cases at McDonald’s Among Oregon’s 80 ‘Active Workplace Outbreaks’
Majority in poll say US coronavirus response worse than other countries
American Airlines prepares to cut service to small cities
AMC to start reopening its movie theaters next week — and selling tickets for 15 cents
Amazon is delivering nearly two-thirds of its own packages as e-commerce continues pandemic boom
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
This Kind Of Mask Is Much Less Effective Than You Thought
July 2020 Import Year-over-Year Inflation Now -3.3%
08 August 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Decline To 963,000 This Week
Rail Week Ending 08 August 2020 – Good Recovery in Intermodal
Is A Cyclical Recovery Coming?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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