Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 10.1 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are worse and are now 9.3 % above the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Total global cases of coronavirus have now exceeded 20,000,000
- The myth of America’s unique COVID-19 failure
- Will Sustainability Efforts Get a Boost from the COVID-19 Crisis?
- Russia announces World’s ‘first’ coronavirus vaccine,
- Stephen Hahn, FDA Chief, Is Caught Between Scientists and the President
- A Third Of Americans Unwilling To Get Covid-19 Vaccine
- Kodak deal with US government to produce pharmaceuticals appears to be on hold
- Youths who vape, smoke over 5 times more likely to contract coronavirus
Note that a script error caused yesterday’s post to terminate before presenting all the news. This error has now been corrected and you can view the entire post [here].
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 11 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 11 August 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 49,530 | 5,090,000 | 220,726 | 20,080,000 | 22.4% | 25.3% |
Deaths** | 523 | 163,461 | 5,042 | 736,372 | 10.4% | 22.2% |
Mortality Rate | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.7% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.15* | 186.68* |
* as of 09 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
There has been a 90% increase in Covid-19 cases in US children in the last four weeks, report says – CNN
As the nation focuses on safety issues around going back to school during the pandemic, a new report found a sharp increase in the number of Covid-19 cases among children in the United States.
There has been a 90% increase in the number of Covid-19 cases among children in the United States over the last four weeks, according to a new analysis by the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association that will be updated weekly.
Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice-chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Infectious Diseases, told CNN’s Anderson Cooper on Monday that coronavirus cases in children should be taken seriously.
“It’s not fair to say that this virus is completely benign in children,” said O’Leary. “We’ve had 90 deaths in children in the US already, in just a few months. Every year we worry about influenza in children, and there are roughly around 100 deaths in children from influenza every year.”
Leary said that multiple factors have led to a recent increase in the number of coronavirus infections in children in the past couple of weeks, including increased testing, increased movement among children and a rise in infection among the general population.
Dialysis patients at U.S. nursing home had higher rate of COVID-19: CDC – Reuters
Nursing home residents on kidney dialysis had roughly three times the rate of COVID-19 compared to those not receiving treatment, U.S. health researchers found in a study of a Maryland facility.
The study is based on data during an active coronavirus outbreak in April, when the nursing home reported its first positive COVID-19 case. At the time, around half the nursing homes in the state had active outbreaks.
Some 47% of residents receiving dialysis had positive test results for COVID-19, compared to 16% not receiving dialysis, researchers reported in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on Tuesday.
The 30-day hospitalization rate and mortality were significantly higher among COVID-19 patients receiving dialysis.
The researchers, including those from Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, and CDC’s COVID-19 response team, said residents on dialysis might be at greater risk as they regularly leave the facility for treatment and could be exposed to other dialysis patients and staff members at dialysis centers.
The myth of America’s unique COVID-19 failure – The Hill
If you follow the news these days, you are likely inundated with stories about how the United States, under Donald Trump, has uniquely mishandled the COVID-19 outbreak. Much of the rest of the world, we are assured, has managed the pandemic surprisingly well. But the United States? An unparalleled “catastrophe,” says the Atlantic. “A unique failure,” intones the New York Times.
But what if these judgments are wrong? What if they are so focused on absolute numbers of cases and deaths, that they miss the most important apples-to-apples nuances necessary to make a proper assessment?
It appears this is exactly what has happened with the reporting on America’s COVID-19 response. In fact, when you compare the United States with other countries with similar political and economic systems (the fairest comparison), the United States is more middle-of-the-pack than unrivaled outlier.
Surprised? So were we.
… If you dig a little deeper into the top-line numbers, you’ll find two important mitigating factors at play. First, the United States, with a population of 330 million, was always going to have a higher absolute death count compared with nearly every other country in the world. Hearing that the United States had 1,000 deaths on a given day while Costa Rica had only 15 might make for good copy at CNN — but those numbers are about equal, in relative terms, because Costa Rica has a population of only 5 million.
Second, and more important, the list of countries most negatively impacted by the pandemic, as measured by per-capita deaths per 100,000, is dominated by Western capitalist democracies: seven of the top 10 (and nine of the top 14 — not counting the microstates of San Marino and Andorra) are liberal democracies ranging from Belgium to the Netherlands. The United States, at number 10, is roughly equal to France, and significantly below Belgium, Britain, Italy, Spain, and Sweden.
[editor’s note: it is hard to summarize this post – it deserves a full read.]
Will Sustainability Efforts Get a Boost from the COVID-19 Crisis? Opinions Are Sharply Divided – The Conference Board
Respondents from two different surveys—one comprising general counsel, corporate secretaries, and investor relations executives at more than 230 US public companies, the other comprising more than 40 sustainability executives in the US—have very different opinions on the impact that COVID-19 will have on corporate sustainability programs (defined as initiatives designed to promote the long-term welfare of the company, multiple stakeholders, society at large, and the environment). Three out of 10 sustainability executives expect the current health crisis to increase emphasis on their environmental and social efforts—but only 1 in 10 of their fellow governance executives agree.
There may be a number of drivers here: executives may have divergent views of the meaning of the term “sustainability”; they may also have different views of their own company’s sustainability programs, and they may have different takes on the breadth and depth of COVID-19’s impact.
This divergence of opinions reveals companies need to reach an internal consensus on the crisis’s impact on their sustainability programs, and be prepared to communicate it in a coherent, cohesive, and consistent manner.
For more insights from the surveys, see: Refocusing Sustainability during COVID-19 and Corporate Governance Challenges in the COVID-19 Crisis: Findings from a Survey of US Public Companies.
Russia announces World’s ‘first’ coronavirus vaccine, Putin says daughter inoculated – Economic Times
Russia has developed the first vaccine offering “sustainable immunity” against the coronavirus, President Vladimir Putin announced Tuesday. “This morning, for the first time in the world, a vaccine against the new coronavirus was registered” in Russia, he said during a televised video conference call with government ministers. “One of my daughters had this vaccine. I think in this sense she took part in the experiment,” Putin said.
A Third Of Americans Unwilling To Get Covid-19 Vaccine – Statista
The United States has passed yet another grim milestone in its battle to contain Covid-19 with the number of cases now above the five million mark. While some countries such as New Zealand have successfully suppressed the pandemic, a vaccine now appears to be the only hope for much of humanity in breaking chains of infection and restoring some semblance of normality. When he was testifying before Congress, Dr. Fauci, America’s top expert on infectious diseases, said he was optimistic a vaccine would be ready by early 2021.
Even if that happens, a large swathe of the American population would be unwilling to take it, according to a new Gallup poll. Conducted between July 20 and August 02, it found that more than a third of U.S. adults would be unwilling to take an FDA approved Covid-19 vaccine at no cost. It also recorded a considerable partisan divide in attitudes with 81 percent of Democrats indicating they would be willing to get vaccinated while 53 percent of Republicans said they would be unwilling. Broken down by age, 76 percent of Americans aged between 18 and 29 said they would take a vaccine, along with 70 percent of senior citizens, while reluctance levels are highest among middle aged people.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Stephen Hahn, FDA Chief, Is Caught Between Scientists and the President – New York Times
Dr. Hahn, an oncologist and former hospital executive, certainly understood the deadly toll of the virus, and the danger posed by the president’s false statements. But he ducked the journalist’s question.
“I’m not going to get into who’s right and who’s wrong,” he said.
The exchange illustrates the predicament that Dr. Hahn and other doctors face working for a president who often disregards scientific evidence. But as head of the agency that will decide what treatments are approved for Covid-19 and whether a new vaccine is safe enough to be given to millions of Americans, Dr. Hahn may be pressured like no one else.
… Many medical experts — including members of his own staff — worry about whether Dr. Hahn, despite his good intentions, has the fortitude and political savvy to protect the scientific integrity of the F.D.A. from the president. Critics point to a series of worrisome responses to the coronavirus epidemic under Dr. Hahn’s leadership, most notably the emergency authorization the agency gave to the president’s favorite drug, hydroxychloroquine, a decision it reversed three months later because the treatment did not work and harmed some people.
… Dr. Hahn is not allowed to speak to the press without Mr. Caputo or another official on the phone — a marked contrast to the practice under the last F.D.A. commissioner, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a powerful force in Washington who came to the job with years of experience at the F.D.A. and political think tanks. He called reporters whenever he felt like it, which was often.
Kodak deal with US government to produce pharmaceuticals appears to be on hold – The Verge
An agreement between the US government and Kodak to develop generic drug ingredients appears to be on hold, after the US International Development Finance Corporation tweeted that “recent allegations of wrongdoing raise serious concerns.”
“We will not proceed any further unless these allegations are cleared,” the agency tweeted, without specifying what the allegations were.
Kodak said Friday it was conducting an internal review of recent activity by the company in connection with a $765 million loan it would receive under the Defense Production Act to produce pharmaceuticals. The company’s stock price surged in the days before the deal was announced, CBS News reported, leading Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) to call for the Securities and Exchange Commission to investigate whether there were any instances of insider trading.
A rapid and cheap saliva test developed at Yale University – medRxiv
Current bottlenecks for improving accessibility and scalability of SARS-CoV-2 testing include diagnostic assay costs, complexity, and supply chain shortages. To resolve these issues, we developed SalivaDirect. The critical component of our approach is to use saliva instead of respiratory swabs, which enables non-invasive frequent sampling and reduces the need for trained healthcare professionals during collection. Furthermore, we simplified our diagnostic test by (1) not requiring nucleic acid preservatives at sample collection, (2) replacing nucleic acid extraction with a simple proteinase K and heat treatment step, and (3) testing specimens with a dualplex quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) assay. We validated SalivaDirect with reagents and instruments from multiple vendors to minimize the risk for supply chain issues. Regardless of our tested combination of reagents and instruments from different vendors, we found that SalivaDirect is highly sensitive with a limit of detection of 6-12 SARS-CoV-2 copies/μL. When comparing paired nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva specimens using the authorized ThermoFisher Scientific TaqPath COVID-19 combo kit and our SalivaDirect protocol, we found high agreement in testing outcomes (>94%). Being flexible and inexpensive ($1.29-$4.37/sample), SalivaDirect is a viable and accessible option to help alleviate SARS-CoV-2 testing demands. We submitted SalivaDirect as a laboratory developed test to the US Food and Drug Administration for Emergency Use Authorization on July 14th, 2020, and current details can be found on our website (covidtrackerct.com/about-salivadirect/).
RLF-100: Hope or Hype for COVID-19 Patients? – MedPage
A synthetic human vasoactive intestinal peptide looks good now, but it’s early
A proprietary formulation of vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) called RLF-100 (a.k.a. aviptadil) might have helped critically ill COVID-19 patients, although initial results touted by the product’s developers in a press release remain to be confirmed in well-designed trials.
If the product does succeed, it would complete a 50-year effort to bring VIP into the clinic as a drug.
In their press release last week, Wilmington, Delaware-based NeuroRx and Relief Therapeutics AG of Switzerland described rapid recovery of a seriously ill patient, age 54, who received RLF-100 at Houston Methodist Hospital. The man developed COVID-19 following a double lung transplant. He was able to come off the ventilator the day after completing a 3-day series of RLF-100 infusions. Clinicians at Houston Methodist, along with NeuroRx CEO Jonathan Javitt, also wrote up the case in a preprint manuscript.
Study: Youths who vape, smoke over 5 times more likely to contract coronavirus – The Hill
Young people who smoke or use electronic cigarettes are more than five times more likely to contract coronavirus, according to a study published Tuesday by the Stanford University School of Medicine.
The study found that of young adults who were tested for coronavirus, those who reported smoking or using e-cigarettes were five to seven times more likely to be infected than nonsmokers.
“We were surprised,” Bonnie Halpern-Felsher, professor of pediatrics at Stanford University and the study’s senior author, told NBC News. “We expected to maybe see some relationship … but certainly not at the odds ratios and the significance that we’re seeing it here.”
The Stanford study marks the first national population-based look at connections between vaping and smoking and coronavirus in young people. It is based on surveys of 4,351 participants ages 13 to 24
from across the country.
This number shows a stunning reversal in the chances of Main Street’s survival – CNBC
- The pandemic is still raging on in the U.S., yet 64% of small business owners on Main Street are confident that they can survive for more than a year under current conditions, the Q3 CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey revealed.
- That is nearly double the 34% that held this optimistic view when polled in April.
- Government relief efforts including PPP, support from local communities, the adoption of technology and pivoting to new lines of business, are responsible for the turnaround in attitude among business owners.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
UK employment falls by biggest amount in over a decade
New Zealand moves fast to lock down Auckland after return of COVID after 102 days
Skepticism Greets Putin’s Announcement Of Russian Coronavirus Vaccine
Russia Coronavirus Vaccine Not on WHO List of 6 Candidates In Phase 3 Trial
The virus is spiking in parts of Latin America that once had it under control.
France maintains ban on mass gatherings until end of October
Coronavirus: Mexico to conduct phase 3 trials for China, U.S. vaccine candidates
Coronavirus has led to a resurgence of “little wine holes” in Italy
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Florida sets record for coronavirus hospitalizations
Butler School District [New Jersey] to require students, staff to wear temperature-reading armbands
100 students sent home from Mississippi high school after teacher shows COVID-19 symptoms
Wisconsin state agency requires employees to wear masks while teleconferencing
COVID Is Spreading Faster in Hawaii Than Anywhere Else, Police Crack Down
Georgia School District Quarantines Over 850 Students, Teachers
New York’s Governor Refuses to Reveal Nursing Home Death Toll
The virus is killing young Floridians. Work, not partying, is often to blame.
Big Ten postpones 2020 football season
66 NFL players have opted out over coronavirus concerns. What this means for the 2020 season
July 2020 Small Business Optimism Declines
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
July 2020 Producer Price Final Demand Year-over-Year Growth Remains In Contraction
May 2020 Loan Performance: First Annual Increase In More Than 9 Years
How COVID-19 Might Increase Risk Of Memory Loss And Cognitive Decline
Average Gasoline Prices for Week Ending 10 August 2020 Down $0.45 From A Year Ago
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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