Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 14.2 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are worse and are now 2.2 % above the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Unwavering Regulatory Safeguards for COVID-19 Vaccines
- Only 37% of US churches holding in-person services are following this key CDC guideline
- 3 Months to Complete COVID Vax Trial? AMA Chief Doubts It
- Nevada, Missouri and These 4 States See Highest Rise in Child COVID Cases As Nearly 100K Test Positive in 2 Weeks
- California’s chief health officer quits after the state’s virus data tracking system breaks down
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars, and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 10 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 10 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 46,847 | 5,040,000 | 220,519 | 19,850,000 | 21.2% | 25.4% |
| Deaths** | 513 | 162,938 | 4,412 | 731,263 | 11.6% | 22.3% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.1% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 3.7% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.15* | 186.68* | ||||
* as of 09 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Sturgis rally roars ahead despite coronavirus concerns – FOX
Crowds of motorcycle enthusiasts gathered in Sturgis, S.D., Friday for the start of the 80th Sturgis Motorcycle Rally despite concerns over the coronavirus pandemic that has led to cancellations of other large-scale gatherings since the outbreak.
The rally could become the largest gathering since the pandemic began. Organizers were expecting 250,000 people from all over the country to make at the 10-day event. Many bikers were defiant over the restrictions that have altered daily life for most Americans.
“Screw COVID,” read the design on one T-shirt being sold. “I went to Sturgis.”
Watch the latest video at foxnews.com
Unwavering Regulatory Safeguards for COVID-19 Vaccines – JAMA
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted normal life and had significant consequences for human health, with more than 4.6 million cases and more than 150 000 deaths in the US alone as of early August 2020. Preventive public health measures such as mask usage, physical distancing, and enhanced sanitation procedures are necessary to alleviate strain on the health system and reduce community transmission, while advances in therapeutic development have potentially improved clinical outcomes for patients with severe illness. However, minimizing the risk of resurgence and enabling a safe return to normal life will require a majority of the population to develop immunity against SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus that causes COVID-19). Acceptably achieving this level of herd immunity quickly will likely require the development of safe and effective vaccines.
Yet even under normal circumstances, vaccine development is a challenging endeavor that carries significant financial risk due to the high rate of failure at each stage of the development process. To expedite the development of a COVID-19 vaccine, the US government launched Operation Warp Speed in May 2020. This endeavor is committed to compressing what can sometimes be a decade-long development process into a matter of months through up-front financial commitments that focus resources and lower the risk of innovation. The completion of phase 1 trials for several vaccine candidates in July 2020 and enrollment for forthcoming phase 3 trials are important milestones for this process.
Still, the emphasis on speed has provoked public anxiety about the safety and effectiveness of vaccines developed on expedited timelines. Among the concerns are that the regulatory standards for approval will be lowered under political pressure for a vaccine. In a recent poll of 1056 US adults, 31% indicated that they are uncertain about whether they would receive a potential COVID-19 vaccine and 20% indicated they would choose not to take it, with concerns about safety and adverse effects being the primary reason for avoiding vaccination.
Test Sites Quickly Attract Thousands for COVID-19 Vaccine Study – Kaiser Health
Amid a pandemic that in the U.S. has caused roughly 5 million infections and nearly 160,000 deaths while decimating the economy, the vaccine trials have drawn far more interest than is typical for a clinical trial, organizers said.
Also, the test sites pay volunteers as much as $2,000 for completing the two-year study.
“We have no shortage of volunteers and we have thousands of people interested in participating,” said Dr. Ella Grach, CEO of M3-Wake Research of Raleigh, North Carolina, which is conducting vaccine trials at six sites.
… People 18 and older are eligible to participate in the trials, and Moderna and Pfizer are pushing to include high-risk individuals such as health workers, the elderly and people with chronic conditions such as diabetes and asthma. Organizers are also seeking to enroll Blacks and Hispanics, groups hit hard by the virus.
The vaccine makers have contracted with dozens of clinical research sites across the country. About 15 have started inoculating, and it will likely take until September for all volunteers to get their first shot. The participants will get a booster shot about a month later. They are asked to keep an electronic diary to record any symptoms. Because the virus is widespread across the country, the studies are expected to be able to note differences between infection rates in those who got the vaccine and those who received a placebo.
Government health experts say they hope to know if the vaccines are working by this fall. If the trials are successful, it would likely take until early next year before a vaccine could gain federal approval to start widespread distribution.
To determine effectiveness, half of the trial participants will receive the vaccine and half a placebo.
Only 37% of US churches holding in-person services are following this key CDC guideline – CNN
Since the coronavirus pandemic began in March, religion in the US has seemed a helter-skelter mix of legal disputes and defiant pastors, altered rites and sanctuaries as sites of contagion.
But that picture hides a broad consensus about what congregations should be and are doing during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new survey by the Pew Research Center.
Just 12% of Americans said they attended a house of worship from mid-June to mid-July. That’s down from a Gallup poll last year that found 34% of Americans said they had attended a religious service in the past week.
More than half who regularly attend religious services say their congregation is open. Of those, most say social distancing and masks are required during services.
But a much lower percentage (37%) say their congregation has limited communal singing, despite warnings from the Centers for Disease Control that singing in close proximity can facilitate spread of the coronavirus. The CDC recommends that organizations “consider temporarily suspending singing, chanting, or shouting during events especially when participants are in close proximity to each other.”
3 Months to Complete COVID Vax Trial? AMA Chief Doubts It – Medpage
Finishing a phase III trial of a COVID-19 vaccine by November is an overly optimistic timeline, Susan Bailey, MD, president of the American Medical Association (AMA), said Friday.
One company started enrolling patients — with a goal of 30,000 people — last week; however, even under a 90-day timeline, “if we had 30,000 people enrolled today — which we don’t — 90 days takes us to the first of November,” Bailey said during a talk given virtually for the City Club of Cleveland. “That’s incredibly, incredibly optimistic and it will be a challenge to make that happen.” Asked whether 3 months would be long enough to determine the vaccine’s long-term efficacy, she said it would not. “That’s one reason phase III trials have to last long enough to get you the data that you need.”
During her talk and the Q&A session that followed, Bailey emphasized the need for doctors to follow the science when it comes to the coronavirus. “The AMA has been completely clear from day one that all questions and all evidence must be rooted in science. We always go back to science when we have questions,” she said.
“This is a very complicated virus, and our processes and things that we think have worked for the virus have changed over time. In the beginning, we were thinking therapies might help that we’re not so sure help now, because we looked at validated clinical trials that compare a medication with a placebo.” But she added that while doctors “have an obligation” to root their recommendations in science, “they should also have the freedom to discuss all sorts of options for treatment with patients on a one-to-one basis.”
California Will Soon Be Paying $1,250 To People Who Test Positive For Coronavirus – ZeroHedge
Always looking for ways to one-up its own failed welfare state and run the Covid score up on President Trump, California has now approved a pilot plan to pay $1,250 to anyone who tests positive for coronavirus to encourage them to “stay at home and self isolate”.
Alameda County’s Board of Supervisors has set aside $10 million for the program, which will allow payments to 7,500 people, according to the Daily Mail. The program was approved as the county hit a new high in daily coronavirus cases and as California continues to “struggle” to contain the outbreak in its state.
U.S. Health Insurers Profits Boom Amid Pandemic – Statista
Across the world, some business models have proven resilient throughout the coronavirus pandemic with online retailers such as Amazon and streaming services like Netflix thriving. A catastrophic health crisis may seem like a good financial opportunity for health insurance companies and according to the most recent results of some major U.S. players, they are raking in billions of extra dollars thanks to the pandemic, with some companies even doubling their profits.
In some parts of the country, hospitals are being overwhelmed by an influx of patients with some announcing staggering financial losses. Meanwhile, major health insurance providers have been able to avoid paying big money for major surgeries and other complex procedures while people have stopped visiting their local doctors in recent weeks. That has led to a drastic increase in net income for most health insurance companies between Q2 of last year and Q2 of 2020 with a selection compared on this infographic.
For example, the UnitedHealth Group doubled its income from $3.4 billion to $6.7 billion with Anthem’s also growing by a similar percentage, climbing from $1.1 billion to $2.3 billion. CVS Health owns insurance provider Aetna as well as several other brands including pharmaceutical companies. It added an extra billion dollars in net income in the second quarter of 2020. Humana also posted staggering numbers with a net income of $1.8 billion versus $940 billion for Q2 of last year.
The Affordable Care Act saw the profits of health insurance companies capped under the requirement that they pay out rebates for the benefit of their customers, a process which does not seem to be occurring quickly enough given the severity of the current situation. That has prompted the Health and Human Services Department to weigh in on the situation and it has advised health insurance providers to accelerate the rebate process and reduce premiums.
You will find more infographics at Statista
As pediatric cases of the novel coronavirus rise across the country, health officials in six U.S. states recently reported the most significant increases in infections diagnosed among children.
An analysis of local and state health department data, included in a recent report by the American Academy of Pediatrics and Children’s Hospital Association, showed close to 100,000 new COVID-19 cases seen in children between July 16 and July 30. The jump represented a 40 percent increase in pediatric diagnoses nationwide, bringing the U.S. total to nearly 339,000 cases reported in children since the pandemic began.
Alaska, Idaho, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and Oklahoma reported the most significant increases in pediatric cases during that two-week period, according to the report. The majority of those states—Alaska, Missouri, Montana, Nevada—classify children as anyone under 19 years old. Nevada and Oklahoma’s classifications are slightly narrower, ending at 17 years old.
California’s chief health officer quits after the state’s virus data tracking system breaks down. – New York Times
California’s public health director, Dr. Sonia Angell, abruptly resigned late on Sunday after less than a year on the job. In a letter to her colleagues at the California Department of Public Health, she cited “my own plans to depart from my position,” but did not give a specific reason for leaving.
Her departure comes after a malfunction in the main disease reporting system that omitted as many as 300,000 test results. The problems clouded the overall picture of the virus’s progression in California, which has had 10,365 deaths related to the virus, third in the nation after New York and New Jersey, and 563,244 confirmed cases.
“Since I joined this department as Director and State Public Health Officer in October 2019, we have been responding to emergencies, from e-cigarette and vaping-associated lung injury to the public safety power shutoffs and wildfires, and now to a global infectious disease pandemic,” Dr. Angell wrote in the letter. “It is with deep appreciation and respect for all of this work that I share with you my own plans to depart from my position, effective today.”
The Department of Public Health issued a one-sentence statement from Gov. Gavin Newsom on her departure: “I want to thank Dr. Angell for her service to the state and her work to help steer our public health system during this global pandemic, while never losing sight of the importance of health equity.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Europe Imposes New Restrictions as Countries Face ‘Alarming’ COVID-19 Surge
In New Zealand, Life Is Ordinary Again After 101 Days With No Community Spread
Germany and France quit WHO reform talks amid tension with Washington
Inside the Chinese lab central to the search for the coronavirus’ origin
‘Vast’ gap in funding needed to fight the coronavirus, WHO warns
German firms expect coronavirus restrictions to last until April
Why Hong Kong Is Extending Coronavirus Restrictions – Even as New Cases Dwindle to Zero
India’s former president Pranab Mukherjee tests positive for COVID-19
Greece sees highest daily case count ever
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Bill Gates on Covid: Most US Tests Are ‘Completely Garbage’
Anti-maskers explain themselves – “If I’m going to get Covid and die from it, then so be it.”
Opioid Scandal Haunts Drug Companies As They Respond To Pandemic
9 Test Positive For Coronavirus After In-Person Classes Resume At Georgia High School
Virginia Supreme Court Grants Temporary Moratorium on Evictions
TSA finding three times as many guns in carry-on luggage as before pandemic
Feds charge company with falsely claiming drug reduced risk of COVID-19
New York MTA asks Apple to ‘accelerate’ process to unlock iPhone while wearing mask
Antonio Banderas reveals positive COVID-19 test
Big Ten votes to cancel football season: report
Airline shares surge as TSA numbers hit pandemic high, support for second bailout builds
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Pause Seen to Upward Trend in Expectations for the Labor Market and Household Finances In July 2020
July 2020 Monthly Budget Review: Unemployment Compensation Contributed Significantly To The Deficit
July 2020 Conference Board Employment Index Insignificantly Improves and Remains Deep In Contraction
June 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Rate Improved But Remains In Contraction
Which Workers Have Been Most Affected By The COVID-19 Pandemic?
The Pandemic’s Racial Disparity
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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