Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 13.0 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus are unchanged from the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- WHO says the late-stage coronavirus trials don’t mean a vaccine is ‘nearly there’
- Study Finds 98 “Long-Term” COVID-19 Symptoms Including Baldness
- California’s growing virus data collection headache
- Skin Rashes a Clue to COVID-19 Vascular Disease
- Asymptomatic People Carry Similar Levels of Coronavirus as Those with Symptoms
- Trump to sign executive order requiring government to buy ‘essential’ drugs from U.S. companies
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths have been updated through 06 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 06 August 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Confirmed Cases | 52,804 | 4,820,000 | 270,499 | 18,790,000 | 19.5% | 25.7% |
| Deaths** | 1,450 | 158,256 | 7,168 | 707,715 | 20.2% | 22.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.06* | 178.01* | ||||
* as of 05 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Weekly unemployment claims data released today shows a drop in new claims.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
State Department lifts global advisory on avoiding international travel amid COVID-19 pandemic – USA Today
The U.S. State Department has lifted its advisory on avoiding international travel.
The agency said Thursday in a press release that lifting the global health advisory, issued at the highest alert level – level 4 – March 19, was done in coordination with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
“With health and safety conditions improving in some countries and potentially deteriorating in others, the Department is returning to our previous system of country-specific levels of travel advice … in order to give travelers detailed and actionable information to make informed travel decisions,” the release says, adding that the customary level 1 through 4 advisories for specific countries on Travel.State.gov provide more detailed information about specific conditions in individual countries.
“This will also provide U.S. citizens more detailed information about the current status in each country,” it continued. “We continue to recommend U.S. citizens exercise caution when traveling abroad due to the unpredictable nature of the pandemic.”
Americans Are Less Eager To Get Coronavirus Vaccine – Rasmussen
Americans are closely divided over whether an anti-coronavirus vaccine is coming by the end of the year, but a sizable number are willing to be guinea pigs to get the job done. Most still say they’re likely to get the vaccine when it’s here but not as many as three months ago.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of American Adults think it’s likely a coronavirus vaccine will be available by the end of the year, but nearly as many (46%) consider that unlikely. This includes 15% who say an end-of-the-year vaccine is Very Likely and 19% who say it’s Not At All Likely.
WHO says the late-stage coronavirus trials don’t mean a vaccine is ‘nearly there’ – CNBC
- “Phase three doesn’t mean nearly there,” Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s emergencies program, said.
- While there is hope scientists will find a safe and effective vaccine, there is never a guarantee, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said.
Study Finds 98 “Long-Term” COVID-19 Symptoms Including Baldness – ZeroHedge
And in a study published recently by the University of Indiana School of Medicine happened on a surprising finding: those who suffer from long-term symptoms of the coronavirus – a group that the researchers nicknamed “long haulers” after a Facebook group where many go for help – can experience all kinds of surprising symptoms, including baldness (for both men and women).
The study was conducted by a doctor at the Indiana University School of Medicine and the grassroots COVID-19 survivor group Survivor Corps using a Facebook poll that was shared with a group of “long haulers”, whom the researchers thanked for sharing their time and experience.
The CDC has identified only 17 persistent COVID-19 symptoms, but the survey of more than 1,500 patients found 98 possible symptoms, according to Dr. Natalie Lambert, an associate research professor who worked on the study.
“The new symptoms our study identified include severe nerve pain, difficulty concentrating, difficulty sleeping, blurry vision and even hair loss,” Lambert said in a written statement.
California’s growing virus data collection headache – AP
California has stopped removing or adding to a list of counties facing more restrictions on businesses and schools as it tries to determine the impact from an unresolved technical problem with the state’s coronavirus testing database, health officials said Wednesday.
The state has recorded a highest-in-the-nation 525,000 positive tests. But California health officials say the true number is even higher. They don’t know how much so until they can add backlogged testing data and fix the problem with the California Reportable Disease Information Exchange (CalREDIE).
The incomplete data in the nation’s most populous state has hampered public health officials’ ability to follow up with those who test positive and contact people who have been around them to limit the spread.
“Back in February and March when we didn’t have enough testing, I would say we felt blind,” said Dr. Sara Cody, Santa Clara County’s public health director. “I would say now we’re back to feeling blind. We don’t know how the epidemic is trending.”
Skin Rashes a Clue to COVID-19 Vascular Disease – MedPage
Certain types of rashes in severe COVID-19 patients may be “a clinical clue” to an underlying thrombotic state, researchers said.
Four patients with severe illness at two New York City academic medical centers had livedoid and purpuric rashes, all associated with elevated D-dimer levels and suspected pulmonary emboli, reported Joanna Harp, MD, of NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical College in New York City, and colleagues, writing in a research letter in JAMA Dermatology.
All had been on prophylactic anticoagulation since admission and developed those “hallmark manifestations of cutaneous thrombosis” despite escalation to therapeutic dose anticoagulation for the suspected pulmonary embolism before the rash was noted.
“Clinicians caring for patients with COVID-19 should be aware of livedoid and purpuric rashes as potential manifestations of an underlying hypercoagulable state,” Harp’s group wrote. Skin biopsy in each case showed pauci-inflammatory thrombogenic vasculopathy.
The Awkward Truth About Schools and COVID-19 – MedPage
Mikhail Varshavski, DO, who goes by “Doctor Mike” on social media, is a board-certified family medicine physician at the Atlantic Health System’s Overlook Medical Center in Summit, New Jersey. In this video, he talks with David Epstein, MD, of MVP Pediatrics & Urgent Care in Tarzana, California, about the challenges involved in reopening schools during the COVID-19 pandemic.
SARS-CoV-2 has caused a global pandemic with millions infected and numerous fatalities. Questions regarding the robustness, functionality and longevity of the antibody response to the virus remain unanswered. Here we report that the vast majority of infected individuals with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 experience robust IgG antibody responses against the viral spike protein, based on a dataset of 19,860 individuals screened at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. We also show that titers are stable for at least a period approximating three months, and that anti-spike binding titers significantly correlate with neutralization of authentic SARS-CoV-2. Our data suggests that more than 90% of seroconverters make detectible neutralizing antibody responses and that these titers are stable for at least the near-term future.
Asymptomatic People Carry Similar Levels of Coronavirus as Those with Symptoms in Study – Newsweek
People who show no signs of being infected with the coronavirus have been found to carry similar levels of the germ in their bodies than those with, in a study on South Korean patients.
Following one of the first major COVID-19 outbreaks outside China in February, South Korea started mass-testing and contact tracing. This included keeping those who had tested positive—but didn’t have symptoms—in community treatment centers.
Scientists studied 303 people who had tested positive for the coronavirus between March 6 and 26. They were isolated at a community treatment center in the city of Cheonan. Samples from their upper respiratory tract (inside the nose) and lower respiratory tract (in the form of spit) were taken. The patients were tested eight, nine, 15 and 16 days after they were isolated. On days 10, 17, 18 and 19, doctors tested samples from the patients’ upper or lower respiratory tract at their discretion.
Trump to sign executive order requiring government to buy ‘essential’ drugs from U.S. companies – CNBC
- The president is expected to sign the order during his trip to Ohio later Thursday, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said.
- The order will require the U.S. government to develop a list of essential medicines and buy them as well as medical supplies from U.S. companies instead of from foreign countries like China, Navarro said.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Vietnam turns Danang stadium into field hospital amid virus outbreak
Sweden’s Economy, After Not Having Lockdown, Bettering Rest of Europe
British drugmaker AstraZeneca has struck a deal with Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products to produce the company’s experimental coronavirus vaccine in mainland China
WHO director-general hopes the US will reconsider its withdrawal from the organization
WHO warns of lack of testing in Africa as continent approaches 1 million cases
Coronavirus digest: Germany reports more than 1,000 cases for the first time since May
Peru reports highest daily jump in new cases and deaths so far
China ramps up testing to 4.8 million tests per day
Mexico reports more than 6,000 new cases in one day, as President calls for moment of silence
France records two-month high in cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
NYC sheriff to set up quarantine checkpoints at crossings into city
How a $175 COVID-19 Test Led to $2,479 in Charges
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine Tests Positive For The Coronavirus
Michelle Obama Says She’s Dealing With ‘Low-Grade Depression’ During Lockdown
North Carolina Will Pause Further Reopening Until September To Start The School Year
Which NFL Players Have Opted Out of 2020 Season?
LA Mayor Says Undercounting of COVID Cases Has Been Going On For Months
In California, 57% seeking unemployment benefits lost their jobs for a second time
Fauci Says Face Shields Good Idea for Teachers Back in Schools
Delta says 20% of employees have taken a buyout
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
01 August 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Decline To 1,186,000 This Week
July 2020 Job Cuts: Nearly 1.85M Job Cuts in 2020
Rail Week Ending 01 August 2020 – July Down 9.3% Year-over-Year
How Californias COVID-19 Surge Widens Health Inequalities For Black, Latino And Low-income Residents
Over 40% Of U.S. Renters Now At Risk Of Eviction
Cash-for-Clunkers: What Makes Us Think It Will Work This Time?
These Dogs Are Trained To Sniff Out The Coronavirus. Most Have A 100% Success Rate
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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