Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 6.9 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus continue to worsen and are 4.7 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- A table listing COVID-19 deaths of the top 17 nations. Being in this group is not a good thing.
- Scientists: Gilead and Federal Scientists Have Neglected a Potentially Promising COVID-19 Antiviral Drug
- NIH launches clinical trials for COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatment
- Flu shot makers plan to supply record numbers of vaccine doses amid Covid-19 pandemic
- Novavax becomes fifth COVID-19 vaccine developer to release promising early results
- Americans Support Aggressive Measures To Stop COVID-19
- What’s the risk of catching COVID-19 on public transportation?
- Antibody Tests Suggests 19 Million Americans May Have Been Infected
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 05 August 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 05 August 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Confirmed Cases | 57,525 | 4,770,000 | 249,943 | 18,520,000 | 23.0% | 25.8% |
Deaths** | 1,403 | 156,806 | 6,806 | 700,539 | 20.6% | 22.4% |
Mortality Rate | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.21* | 173.85* |
* as of 03 Aug 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
COVID daily deaths around the world – GFBRANDENBURG’s Blog
I don’t think you will guess the nation with the highest total COVID death rate per million, so I’ll just tell you: it’s tiny San Marino at 1238. Next come Belgium (with 850) and the UK (with 680).
Here is a table listing the top 17 nations. Being in this group is not a good thing.
Rank Nation Deaths per million 1 San Marino 1,238 2 Belgium 850 3 UK 680 4 Andorra 673 5 Spain 609 6 Peru 600 7 Italy 582 8 Sweden 569 9 Chile 507 10 USA 481 11 France 464 12 Brazil 446 13 Sint Maarten 373 14 Mexico 372 15 Netherlands 359 16 Ireland 357 17 Panama 346
Public Citizen, Scientists: Gilead and Federal Scientists Have Neglected a Potentially Promising COVID-19 Antiviral Drug – Public Citizen
Gilead Sciences, Inc. and the federal government apparently have been sitting on a potentially promising coronavirus treatment (GS-441524) for months that may offer significant advantages over the closely related antiviral drug remdesivir, possibly to maximize profits, Public Citizen and two scientists specializing in cancer drug development said today in a letter to the company and senior federal health officials.
Gilead and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) aggressively have pursued the development of remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19, while the experimental antiviral drug GS-441524 – which has a chemical structure and activity very similar to remdesivir – has been neglected. This is despite extensive, publicly available scientific evidence suggesting that GS-441524 may be a better option than remdesivir based on the following:
- GS-441524 has demonstrated marked effectiveness and safety in the treatment of a lethal coronavirus infection in cats;
- GS-441524 has been shown in cultured cells to have antiviral activity against the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 that appears to be similar or superior to that of remdesivir, and at levels achievable in the body with low toxicity;
- GS-441524 enters lung cells and is converted to its active form that halts reproduction of the coronavirus;
- GS-441524 is a smaller molecule and is more water soluble than remdesivir, possibly facilitating its use in oral or inhaled forms for treatment of COVID-19, whereas remdesivir is currently limited to intravenous use only;
- GS-441524 is substantially easier to manufacture than remdesivir; and
- In humans, following injection of remdesivir, GS-441524 is the predominant substance that provides antiviral therapeutic effects in the lungs.
NIH launches clinical trials for COVID-19 monoclonal antibody treatment – NBC
The National Institutes of Health announced the start of two clinical trials for a potential coronavirus treatment called monoclonal antibodies.
Two treatments — remdesivir and dexamethasone — have been shown to help severely ill COVID-19 patients, but this would be the first potential drug to help patients early in the disease.
“What we’re dealing with now is trying to determine what works in early disease,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a press briefing Tuesday.
Monoclonal antibodies are made in a lab to mimic the body’s natural antibodies. Antibodies act by recognizing specific pathogens — in this case, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 — and harnessing the immune system to fight them off.
The NIH trials will use a monoclonal antibody developed by Eli Lilly, called LY-CoV555. This antibody was isolated from a COVID-19 patient in Washington state in the early months of the pandemic, Fauci said. It works by binding to the virus’s infamous spike protein, interfering with its ability to infect cells.
Flu shot makers plan to supply record numbers of vaccine doses amid Covid-19 pandemic – CNBC
- Public health officials plan an even greater push for flu vaccination this year.
- They hope to prevent hospitalizations from flu to avoid further strain on health systems already burdened by Covid-19.
- Flu shot manufacturers are increasing output to record levels.
Despite Mask Wars, Americans Support Aggressive Measures To Stop COVID-19, Poll Finds – NPR
With the national death toll from COVID-19 passing the grim 150,000 mark, an NPR/Ipsos poll finds broad support for a single, national strategy to address the pandemic and more aggressive measures to contain it.
Two-thirds of respondents said they believe the U.S. is handling the pandemic worse than other countries, and most want the federal government to take extensive action to slow the spread of the coronavirus, favoring a top-down approach to reopening schools and businesses.
Novavax becomes fifth COVID-19 vaccine developer to release promising early results – USA Today
More good news in the pursuit of a COVID-19 vaccine: A fifth vaccine developer has released promising results from a small, early trial.
Novavax Inc., of Gaithersburg, Maryland, released the results via a news release and call with media late Tuesday, showing the vaccine appeared safe and elicited a similar immune response to an active infection with COVID-19.
“Good news,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a professor and infectious disease expert at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee. “I think it clearly boosts confidence that we will have one or more vaccines.”
Moderna, AstraZeneca and Pfizer have all released promising Phase 1 results, with the first two publishing in major journals. Chinese researchers also have published early trial results, and have begun providing their candidate vaccine to members of the military, Reuters reported.
Bankruptcies Rip Through U.S. Mall Tenants With No End in Sight – Bloomberg
Every week seems to bring another round of retail bankruptcies. With conditions worsening, the numbers are likely to keep climbing.
Over the weekend, Tailored Brands Inc. — the owner of Men’s Wearhouse and JoS. A. Bank — and department store Lord & Taylor filed for Chapter 11. The Canadian unit of Chico’s FAS Inc. declared bankruptcy on July 31. The previous week, it was Ann Taylor and Lane Bryant parent Ascena Retail Group Inc.
At least 25 major retailers have now filed for bankruptcy this year, with 10 of these coming over the last five weeks. The steady drumbeat of bankruptcies goes back to mid-March, when the lockdown of non-essential retailers began in an attempt to halt the spread of Covid-19. The U.S. economy has now largely reopened, but this hasn’t provided relief to the battered industry, which has taken on more leverage in the battle to survive.
… As many as 25,000 stores are expected to close in the U.S. in 2020, mostly in shopping malls, according to Coresight Research. Department stores and fashion boutiques are seen as the most endangered.
Tighten Up! Banks Raise Loan Loss Provisions As They Tighten Lending Standards Across The Board (More Covid Lockdown Costs To Economy) – Confounded Interest
Do the tighten up! At least that is what lenders are doing to residential and commercial real estate lending.
First, let’s look at loan loss reserves for 3 biggest banks. Back to the financial crisis levels of 2008.
According to The July 2020 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, real estate lending standards are tightening rapidly. The net percent of domestic respondents tightening standards for residential mortgage loans is rising across the board.
What’s the risk of catching COVID-19 on public transportation? – Live Science
The chances of catching COVID-19 on public transportation depend a lot on where you sit, with those closest to an infected person at the highest risk and those farther away at a relatively low risk, a new study suggests.
The study, which included thousands of passengers who traveled on China’s high-speed trains, known as G trains, found that the rate of transmission to nearby passengers varied from near 0% to about 10%, with those who sat closest to infected passengers for the longest periods at the highest risk.
“Our study shows that although there is an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission on trains, a person’s seat location and travel time in relation to an infectious person can make a big difference as to whether it is passed on,” study lead author Dr. Shengjie Lai, a research fellow at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, said in a statement. “The findings suggest that during the COVID-19 epidemic it is important to reduce the density of passengers and promote personal hygiene measures, the use of face coverings and possibly carry out temperature checks before boarding.”
We believe that there is a safe way for students to return to college in fall 2020. In this study, screening every 2 days using a rapid, inexpensive, and even poorly sensitive (>70%) test, coupled with strict interventions that keep Rt less than 2.5, was estimated to yield a modest number of containable infections and to be cost-effective. This sets a very high bar—logistically, financially, and behaviorally—that may be beyond the reach of many university administrators and the students in their care.
CEOs around the Globe Not Optimistic about Speed of Recovery – The Conference Board
Early hopes of a rapid, V-shaped recovery—a deep drop but swift pickup of growth in Q3—have been dashed world-wide. Most CEOs around the globe believe the economic recovery will be slow, and it could take considerable time before output recovers to prepandemic levels. In China, Europe, and the US, between 42 and 55 percent of CEOs envision a U-shaped pattern: partial shutdown measures control localized outbreaks with countries gradually succeeding in managing the pandemic. Growth would be sluggish and wouldn’t reach prepandemic levels until the final quarter of 2020. Other CEOs, especially those in Japan and the US, envision a W-shaped scenario: the continued risk of new outbreaks and a second resurgence of the virus lead to more stringent containment measures and a new contraction of output during the second half of the year. Output would see another drop in the second half of 2020, and any further recovery will be put off until well into 2021.
A smaller but significant number of CEOs in China, Europe, and the US envision an L-shaped recovery: growth would not resume until 2021. A near majority of CEOs in Japan and more than half in the Gulf Region share this pessimistic view. For business leaders in the Gulf region, the challenges of volatile oil prices and the long-term viability of petroleum-based growth models play an important role. China is an exception—the economy there already took its biggest hit during the initial virus outbreak in February and March. Some strong recovery already took place in the second quarter, and nearly one quarter of CEOs in China presume a continuation of this V-shaped growth recovery. Nevertheless, 43 percent of CEO in China share the more pessimistic view of their global peers that recovery will be more gradual and U-shaped.
Dashboard Tracking Coronavirus Antibody Tests Suggests 19 Million Americans May Have Been Infected – Newsweek
Now, experts say that despite existing tools still being pivotal in tracking the outbreak, there are additional insights to be gleaned by logging antibody test results, potentially an indicator how many people have built up protection from reinfection.
That’s what the new dashboard does. Known as SeroTracker, it records seroprevalence, which is the number of people previously been infected with SARS-CoV-2—the virus that causes COVID-19—based on antibody, or “serology,” testing.
The tool indicates the U.S. is currently at 5.8 percent seroprevalence, based on 15,993 administered antibody tests. When compared to the approximate population of the U.S., the results could mean up to 19 million U.S. residents have been infected.
A study related to the dashboard has been published in The Lancet.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Afghanistan Estimates COVID Cases More Than Double U.S. Confirmed Infection
U.K. Border Controls Similar to Trump’s Would’ve Saved U.K. Lives, Report Finds
WHO says North Korea’s COVID-19 test results for first suspected case ‘inconclusive’
Bolivia cancels school for 2020
Japan reports more than 1,200 new cases as country struggles to contain spike
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Virgin Atlantic airline files for US bankruptcy protection
Fall could bring rare, paralyzing illness in children, CDC warns
NYC Setting Up Quarantine Checkpoints For Travelers From COVID-19 Hot Spots
NFL’s Top Doctor On How Football Plans To Return
As Cases Rise Fast, Mississippi Governor Mandates Masks And Delays Start Of School
Nationwide Mask Mandate in April Could Have Saved 40K American Lives
When Will Clorox Disinfecting Wipes be Available? Shortage Could Continue
Iowa Man Breaks into Bank to Steal Hand Sanitizer, Police Say
Nearly Half of Inmates at Arizona State Prison Have Coronavirus
California’s coronavirus test result data may be flawed, top health official says
After parents and teachers opposed a hybrid model, Chicago schools will reopen online only.
Moderna announces its vaccine will cost around $32 for some patients
Virginia launches the first U.S. app using Apple-Google coronavirus notification technology
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
July 2020 ISM and Markit Services Surveys Again Improve
June 2020 Trade Improved But Remains Deep In Contraction
July 2020 ADP Employment Gains 167,000
Unusual Variable For Labor Market Recovery
COVID-19 Heightens Water Problems Around The World
Americans Unsure On Making Rent
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option although there is now a discussion of whether T-Cells play a part in immunity [which means one might have immunity without antibodies]
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus? [current thinking is that they are becoming a major source of the pandemic spread]
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farm workers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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