Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 0.7 % higher than the 7-day rolling average one week ago. U.S. deaths due to coronavirus continue to worsen and are 33.0 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that new COVID-19 deaths may increase over the next month
- Health Experts Urge A Shutdown Do-Over As COVID-19 Cases Surge
- Merck aims to start ‘large pivotal’ studies on coronavirus treatment in September
- Children might play ‘important role’ in spreading COVID-19
- CMS and CDC announce provider reimbursement available for counseling patients to self-isolate at time of COVID-19 testing
- Early coronavirus drug trials tested vaccines mostly on White people
- Italy now offers lessons for keeping the virus in check
- CDC warns of ‘significant public health consequences’ if schools don’t reopen in the fall
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 31 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 31 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 68,032 | 4,500,000 | 286,860 | 17,300,000 | 23.7% | 26.0% |
| Deaths** | 1,357 | 152,070 | 6,434 | 673,290 | 21.1% | 22.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 12.0% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.54* | 162.61* | ||||
* as of 29 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Health Experts Urge A Shutdown Do-Over As COVID-19 Cases Surge – NPR
A coalition of health professionals is urging the nation’s leaders to step back from the push to reopen the economy and shut down nonessential businesses to prevent the loss of more lives from the spiraling pandemic.
In an open letter to “decision makers,” a group of doctors, scientists, teachers and nurses says leaders need to “shut it down, start over” and “do it right.” The letter, which has been signed by more than 1,000 health professionals, says that means more testing and contact tracing, mandatory masks in all situations, more personal protective equipment and a ban on interstate travel.
The consequences of opening too soon
“Our core argument is that, unfortunately, the first time we did this, we didn’t do it right,” Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease physician who signed the letter, said in an interview with NPR on Wednesday.
That failure, she said, has brought the nation to where it is today with cases rising in 42 places and a death toll that crossed the grim milestone of 150,000 on Wednesday.
Merck aims to start ‘large pivotal’ studies on coronavirus treatment in September – CNBC
- Merck has scheduled “very large pivotal studies” for its oral coronavirus treatment in collaboration with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics as early as September, a company executive said Friday.
- The experimental oral therapeutic, known as MK-4482, that would fight against Covid-19 is currently in phase two trials.
- The goal of future studies will be to prove the drug can reduce the duration of Covid-19 symptoms and, more importantly, keep people from developing serious illness that could send them to the hospital.
CDC: Children might play ‘important role’ in spreading COVID-19 – The Hill
A new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says children might play a bigger role than previously thought in the spread of COVID-19, raising new concerns about holding in-person classes this fall.
In a report published Friday, the CDC said more than 250 people — mostly children — tested positive for the coronavirus after attending an overnight summer camp in Georgia where masks weren’t required.
A total of 597 Georgia residents attended the summer camp in June. The camp imposed most but not all of CDC’s guidelines to slow or prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Of the 344 test results that were available to the CDC, 260 — or 76 percent — were positive, indicating children might play an “important role” in transmitting the disease, according to the report.
Forecasts of COVID-19 Deaths – CDC
- This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 32 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict:
- The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (31 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks
- The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (31 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks
Of the 32 modeling groups, 30 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided a forecast of new deaths only, and one provided a forecast of total deaths only.
- This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may increase over the next month, with 5,000 to 11,000 new deaths reported during the week ending August 22. The ensemble forecast predicts that 168,000 to 182,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 22.
- State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in: Alabama, Kentucky, New Jersey, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, and Washington.
- The top row of the figure shows the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported in the United States each week from May 16 through July 25 and forecasted new deaths over the next four weeks, through August 22.
- The bottom row of the figure shows the number of total COVID-19 deaths in the United States each week from May 16 through July 25 and the forecasted number of total COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks, through August 22.
- Models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior. See model descriptions below for details.
U.S. Reaches $2.1 Billion Deal With Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline For COVID-19 Vaccine Push – NPR
The federal government has reached a deal worth up to $2.1 billion with drugmakers Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline as part of Operation Warp Speed, the Trump administration’s push to have a coronavirus vaccine widely available by early 2021.
The money will go toward clinical trials, scaling up manufacturing and purchasing 100 million doses of the vaccine.
This is the sixth vaccine candidate to join Operation Warp Speed’s portfolio, and the largest vaccine deal to date. The federal government has also made deals with AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Novavax and Pfizer.
“The portfolio of vaccines being assembled for Operation Warp Speed increases the odds that we will have at least one safe, effective vaccine as soon as the end of this year,” HHS Secretary Alex Azar said in a written statement announcing the deal.
However, the Sanofi/GSK vaccine candidate is not as far along in the research process as some of the others, a handful of which are already in Phase 3 clinical trials. So far, the Sanofi/GSK vaccine has only been studied in preclinical trials.
[editor’s note: also read Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline strike the biggest vaccine deal yet with the U.S. government.]
Government planning for U.S. rollout of coronavirus vaccine falling short, officials warn – Reuters
As scientists and pharmaceutical companies work at breakneck speed to develop a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, public health officials and senior U.S. lawmakers are sounding alarms about the Trump administration’s lack of planning for its nationwide distribution.
The federal government traditionally plays a principal role in funding and overseeing the manufacturing and distribution of new vaccines, which often draw on scarce ingredients and need to be made, stored and transported carefully.
There won’t be enough vaccine for all 330 million Americans right away, so the government also has a role in deciding who gets it first, and in educating a vaccine-wary here public about its potential life saving merits.
Right now, it is unclear who in Washington is in charge of oversight, much less any critical details, some state health officials and members of Congress told Reuters.
Testing czar says 56 percent of COVID-19 results coming back within three days – The Hill
The Trump administration official in charge of the United States’s COVID-19 testing strategy said Thursday backlogs are improving and most lab results are coming back within three days or less.
COVID-19 outbreaks in the south and west have strained laboratory testing capacity, leading to turnaround times of several days or even weeks, hampering efforts to contain the spread of the virus.
Over the past seven days, 56 percent of COVID-19 tests had a turnaround time of three days or less, which Assistant Secretary for Health Adm. Brett Giroir characterized as an improvement.
Over the past month, 45 percent of test results came back from commercial labs within three days, he said.
“We’re seeing an improvement week over week,” Giroir said in a call with reporters, adding that turnaround times of 10-14 days are “outliers.”
[editor’s note: also read Contact tracing in the U.S. is failing, undone by rising caseloads and lags in testing.]
Today, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are announcing that payment is available to physicians and health care providers to counsel patients, at the time of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing, about the importance of self-isolation after they are tested and prior to the onset of symptoms.
The transmission of COVID-19 occurs from both symptomatic, pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals emphasizing the importance of education on self-isolation as the spread of the virus can be reduced significantly by having patients isolated earlier, while waiting for test results or symptom onset. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) models show that when individuals who are tested for the virus are separated from others and placed in quarantine, there can be up to an 86 percent reduction in the transmission of the virus compared to a 40 percent decrease in viral transmission if the person isolates after symptoms arise.
Provider counseling to patients, at the time of their COVID-19 testing, will include the discussion of immediate need for isolation, even before results are available, the importance to inform their immediate household that they too should be tested for COVID-19, and the review of signs and symptoms and services available to them to aid in isolating at home. In addition, they will be counseled that if they test positive, to wear a mask at all times and they will be contacted by public health authorities and asked to provide information for contact tracing and to tell their immediate household and recent contacts in case it is appropriate for these individuals to be tested for the virus and to self-isolate as well.
Early coronavirus drug trials tested vaccines mostly on White people; next phase aims for diversity – CNBC
- The first large-scale clinical trials of Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. got underway this week.
- Communities of color are among priority groups for enrollment given the disproportionate toll of the disease.
- More than 150,000 people have already expressed interest, but ensuring diversity is a challenge.
China-backed hackers ‘targeted COVID-19 vaccine firm Moderna’ – Reuters
Chinese government-linked hackers targeted biotech company Moderna Inc, a U.S.-based coronavirus vaccine research developer, this year in a bid to steal data, according to a U.S. security official tracking Chinese hacking.
China on Friday rejected the accusation that hackers linked to it had targeted Moderna.
Last week, the U.S. Justice Department made public an indictment of two Chinese nationals accused of spying on the United States, including three unnamed U.S.-based targets involved in medical research to fight the novel coronavirus.
The indictment said the Chinese hackers “conducted reconnaissance” against the computer network of a Massachusetts biotech firm known to be working on a coronavirus vaccine in January.
NIH delivering new COVID-19 testing technologies to meet U.S. demand – NIH
The National Institutes of Health is investing $248.7 million in new technologies to address challenges associated with COVID-19 testing (which detects SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus). NIH’s Rapid Acceleration of Diagnostics (RADx) initiative has awarded contracts to seven biomedical diagnostic companies to support a range of new lab-based and point-of-care tests that could significantly increase the number, type and availability of tests by millions per week as early as September 2020. With national demand estimated to be millions more tests per day above current levels, these technologies are expected to make a significant contribution to expanding the nation’s testing capacity.
“RADx moved incredibly quickly to select promising technologies through its ‘shark tank’ approach, investing in technologies that could boost America’s best-in-the-world COVID-19 testing capacity by millions more tests per day,” said HHS Secretary Alex Azar. “These technologies will help deliver faster results from labs and more and more test results within minutes at the point of care, which is especially important for settings like schools and nursing homes.”
The seven technologies use different methods and formats and can be performed in a variety of settings to meet diverse needs. Four of the technologies introduce innovations in laboratory-based testing technologies including next generation sequencing, CRISPR and integrated microfluidic chips that could dramatically increase testing capacity and throughput while reducing the time to receive test results. Three technologies use platforms to provide nucleic acid and viral antigen tests that can give rapid results at the point of care, such as offices, manufacturing facilities, childcare centers, nursing homes and schools. Additionally, some of the tests offer more convenient sampling, such as saliva testing. The companies range in scope from small start-ups to large publicly held organizations. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has been working with NIH and RADx external advisors to provide general advice on test validation and is prioritizing the review of emergency use authorization (EUA) for tests supported by RADx. The companies awarded today have either received EUA from the FDA for their COVID-19 test or have applications in process.
Fauci ‘Optimistic’ Americans Will Get Coronavirus Vaccine Next Year – NPR
A coronavirus vaccine could be ready for distribution by the end of the year, and distributed to Americans in 2021, the nation’s top infectious disease specialist told lawmakers Friday.
While it typically takes years to develop vaccines, new technologies, the lack of bureaucratic red tape, and the human body’s robust immune response to COVID-19 have hastened the process, Dr. Anthony Fauci said.
“From everything we’ve seen now — in the animal data, as well as the human data — we feel cautiously optimistic that we will have a vaccine by the end of this year and as we go into 2021,” said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “I don’t think it’s dreaming.”
In contrast to the decades-long search for an HIV vaccine, COVID-19 is more likely to respond to a vaccine, Fauci said. HIV vaccine development has been so difficult because the body doesn’t make a strong immune response to that virus, he explained. With COVID-19, the immune response is much stronger.
The administration is preparing for wide distribution, with the hope that the current vaccine candidate will prove effective in Phase 3 trials, Fauci said. Fauci said the administration is taking “financial risk” to prepare for distribution once the vaccine is shown to be safe and effective.
Once an out of control epicenter, Italy now offers lessons for keeping the virus in check. – New York Times
Italy has consolidated, or at least maintained, the rewards of a tough nationwide lockdown through a mix of vigilance and painfully gained medical expertise.
Its government has been guided by scientific and technical committees.
The country set aside economic pressures and only began easing its exceptionally tight lockdown based on case counts.
Italy continues to limit travel from elsewhere.
Local doctors, hospitals and health officials collect more than 20 indicators on the virus daily and send them to regional authorities, who then forward them to the National Institute of Health.
The result is a weekly X-ray of the country’s health upon which policy decisions are based. That is a long way from the state of panic, and near collapse, that hit Italy in March.
CDC warns of ‘significant public health consequences’ if schools don’t reopen in the fall – CNBC
- Millions of children get nutritional and mental health services at schools, CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield told a House Select Subcommittee hearing on containing the coronavirus outbreak.
- “It’s important to realize that it’s in the public health’s best interest for K-12 students to get back into face-to-face learning,” he said.
- Redfield said he wants school reopenings to be done “smartly.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
“Structural Faults”: China’s Three Gorges Dam Could Be Nearing collapse [this has nothing to do with coronavirus but could have a worse effect on the economy than COVID-19]
Brazil’s Bolsonaro says he has ‘mold’ in his lungs as his wife tests positive for Covid-19
Hong Kong Delays Elections For A Year, Citing Coronavirus Pandemic
White House condemns Hong Kong election delay after Trump floated postponing US vote
Tokyo sees record number of coronavirus cases, tries to avoid shutdown
Europe’s economic contraction is its worst on record.
Coronavirus: Boris Johnson postpones lockdown easing in England
Kenya’s COVID-19 cases surpass 20,000
Coronavirus cases on the rise in England for first time since May, says Boris Johnson
Belgium shows 62% weekly rise in Covid-19 infections
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Remdesivir maker Gilead sees quarterly sales slide as demand for non-coronavirus drugs falls
Researchers publish scathing critique of a hydroxychloroquine study touted by the White House
Breitbart Still Suspended From Twitter After Viral HCQ Video; Doctor Gets Axe Over Involvement
Ohio pharmacy board withdraws ban on hydroxychloroquine from coronavirus treatment
Yale epidemiologist: Dr. Fauci running ‘misinformation campaign’ against hydroxychloroquine
Wisconsin mandates masks, declares public health emergency
Florida health officials will close state-supported testing facilities until Hurricane Isaias has passed
In Florida, COVID-19 Death Toll Keeps Rising
HBCU President: ‘I Slept Better’ After Deciding On All Online Classes In The Fall
Amazon Doubles Profit To $5.2 Billion As Online Shopping Spikes
Philadelphia Phillies Put Brakes On Home Games After Coronavirus Cases
CDC director says he wasn’t involved in decision to reroute COVID-19 hospitalization data
Cardinals-Brewers game postponed after positive coronavirus tests: report
Dr. Fauci says virus won’t likely ever disappear
Las Vegas Sands president says city of Las Vegas will see ‘more pain’ as pandemic persists
Coronavirus infected scores of children and staff at Georgia sleep-away camp
Bryan Cranston says he had Covid-19 and shares a video of himself donating plasma
California gym that ignored shutdown order now linked to virus cluster
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
August 2020 Economic Forecast – Some Improvement But The Pandemic Stopping Any Real Recovery
24 July 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues But Remains In Contraction
Final July 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Declines
July 2020 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Improves And Now In Expansion
June 2020 Headline Personal Income Declined, Expenditures Improved
Infographic Of The Day: How COVID-19 Has Impacted Black-White Financial Inequality
Landlord-Leaning Eviction Courts Are About To Make The Coronavirus Housing Crisis A Lot Worse
U.S. Economy Suffers Historic Slowdown Amid Pandemic
Historically Bad GDP Report Looks Worse Than It Actually Is
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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