Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 3.3 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago). U.S. deaths due to coronavirus continue to worsen and are 30.4 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global new cases set a record today – read the foreign headlines below
- Masks Aren’t Enough: Dr. Fauci Says People Should “Probably Use Eye Shields”
- Young people appear to be causing coronavirus cases to surge in some countries
- J&J vaccine protected monkeys with single dose, new study finds
- Two Adenovirus-Vectored COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates Show Promise
- FDA says it would clear a coronavirus vaccine so long as it’s safe and at least 50% effective
- Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels
- Over 40% Of U.S. Renters Now At Risk Of Eviction
- The Diamond Princess outbreak offers a case study in aerosol transmission
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 30 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 30 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 74,985 | 4,430,000 | 293,699 | 17,010,000 | 25.5% | 26.0% |
| Deaths** | 1,457 | 150,713 | 6,714 | 666,857 | 21.7% | 22.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.9% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.54* | 162.61* | ||||
* as of 29 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it … What We Failed to Learn From the 1980s
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Masks Aren’t Enough: Dr. Fauci Says People Should “Probably Use Eye Shields” To Protect Against COVID-19 – ZeroHedge
Americans can’t seem to handle wearing masks to stop the coronavirus. Now, imagine if the CDC changed its guidelines to also call for “eye protection” like medical goggles to stop the spread of the virus (and protect your neighbor, as well as yourself).
Well, Dr. Fauci is apparently preparing to do just that.
During an interview with ABC News, Dr. Fauci said Wednesday that he may soon advise Americans to wear ‘eye protection’ to avoid being infected by COVID-19 as deaths along the Sun Belt climb to record highs.
“If you have goggles or an eye shield, you should use it,” the doctor said, before adding that it’s not universally recommended, “but if you really want to be complete, you should probably use it if you can,” he said.
WHO: Young people appear to be causing coronavirus cases to surge in some countries – MSN
- Convincing younger people across the globe that the virus could pose a serious risk for their health remains a challenge for WHO.
- Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove said the majority of younger people tend to have milder forms of Covid-19, but that’s not always the case.
- WHO officials warned that while a young person’s risk of death is generally low, they may suffer from long-term symptoms even after they recover.
J&J vaccine protected monkeys with single dose, new study finds – CNBC
Johnson & Johnson on Thursday released new details of a study that showed its best-performing vaccine candidate provided monkeys with strong protection from the virus with just one dose, Reuters reported. Many other vaccines in development currently require two doses.
The positive results prompted the U.S.-based pharmaceutical company to start human trials for the drug on Thursday, according to Reuters.
“This gives us confidence that we can test a single-shot vaccine in this epidemic and learn whether it has a protective effect in humans,” Dr. Paul Stoffels, J&J’s chief scientific officer, told Reuters.
While J&J is far behind the front-runners in the race for a vaccine, providing one that requires just one dose could prove to be significant in the long term, as it would put less strain on the supply chain and likely cause fewer logistical issues. The U.S. government has backed the company’s vaccine development efforts with $456 million in funding.
Two Adenovirus-Vectored COVID-19 Vaccine Candidates Show Promise – MedPage
- British and Chinese research groups separately reported that two different adenovirus-vectored COVID-19 vaccine candidates prompted immune responses in healthy adults and had acceptable safety profiles.
- Note that research still needs to address issues such as longevity of response, immunogenicity in older adults or specific groups such as those with comorbidities, or ethnic or racial groups more severely affected by COVID-19.
FDA says it would clear a coronavirus vaccine so long as it’s safe and at least 50% effective – CNBC
- We all want a vaccine tomorrow. That’s unrealistic. And we all want a vaccine that’s 100% effective. Again, unrealistic,” FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said.
- He added that the minimum requirement of 50% effectiveness also helped give vaccine manufacturers guidance on how to design their clinical trials.
- Hahn added on Thursday that if a vaccine isn’t safe, the FDA will not authorize it, regardless of how effective it appears to be.
Brazil Reports Almost 70,000 New Covid Infections in Record Day – Bloomberg
Brazil posted record Covid-19 deaths and cases, while also announcing further reopenings all the same.
Brazil, Latin America’s biggest nation and economy, registered some 69,000 new cases and 1,595 deaths. Both counts were all-time highs and push totals to 2.55 million infections and over 90,100 fatalities, although there are indications the daily tallies may include cases from past periods after local governments reported technical problems reporting into the national system.
The country’s response to the crisis — no national guidelines, no standing health minister and a leader who has belittled the seriousness of the disease — has been criticized by health experts, who warn the economy is reopening too soon while the disease still rages. But Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro argues the nation and its people can hardly afford to shut down after years of sluggish growth, sky-high unemployment and with little fiscal wiggle room to offset the economic fallout.
Russian Intelligence Agencies Push Disinformation on Pandemic – New York Times
Russian intelligence services have been spreading disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, according to newly declassified intelligence, material that demonstrates how Moscow is continuing to try to influence Americans as the election draws closer.
Russian military intelligence, known as the G.R.U., has used its ties with a Russian government information center, InfoRos, and other websites to push out English-language disinformation and propaganda about the pandemic, such as amplifying false Chinese arguments that the virus was created by the United States military and articles that said Russia’s medical assistance could bring a new détente with Washington.
The disinformation efforts are a refinement of what Russia tried to do in 2016. The fake social media accounts and bots used by the Internet Research Agency and other Russia-backed groups to amplify false articles have proved relatively easy to stamp out. But it is far more difficult to stop the dissemination of such articles that appear on websites that seem legitimate, according to outside experts.
FDA Nears Decision Authorizing Covid-19 Treatment With Convalescent Plasma – Wall Street Journal
The Food and Drug Administration is nearing a decision to authorize emergency use of antibody-rich blood plasma from recovered Covid-19 patients for treating those infected with the coronavirus, people familiar with the matter said.
The authorization could come as soon as next week, according to the people, though the agency could also decide to delay a decision.
Young people are infecting older family members in shared homes – The Washington Post
As the death toll escalates in coronavirus hot spots, evidence is growing that young people who work outside the home, or who surged into bars and restaurants when states relaxed shutdowns, are infecting their more vulnerable elders, especially family members.
Front-line caregivers, elected officials and experts in Houston, South Florida and elsewhere say they are seeing patterns of hospitalization and death that confirm fears this would happen, which were first raised in May and June. That was when Florida, Texas, Arizona, California and other states reopened in efforts to revive their flagging economies.
The emerging trend highlights the difficulty of relying on the Trump administration’s strategy of sheltering the most vulnerable while the young and healthy return to work and school. That approach runs the risk of transmitting the virus when two or three generations share the same home and when many lower-income workers have little choice but to brave exposure to do their jobs.
Young adults are among the essential workers who may be returning home to parents and grandparents. High school and college-age children may expose teachers, parents and grandparents.
Sooner or later, doctors said, most older people and those with underlying health problems will mix with the younger generation.
3 California food suppliers ordered to close after coronavirus outbreaks go unreported – FOX
Los Angeles health officials ordered three area food suppliers to shutter over unreported coronavirus outbreaks among their workers.
S & S Foods in Azusa, California, was told to close after 58 employees tested positive for coronavirus, KTLA reported. The order also included Mission Foods Corp. in Commerce, where 40 tested positive, and Golden State Foods Corp. in City of Industry, where 43 tested positive, according to KTLA.
“They have significant outbreaks amongst their employees, [and] we were not notified, as we’re required to be notified, once they had their three cases,” LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer said Monday, according to KTLA. “Our inspector asked them to make some modifications to really enhance their infection control protocols at all three sites.”
Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds – New York Times
It has been a comforting refrain in the national conversation about reopening schools: Young children are mostly spared by the coronavirus and don’t seem to spread it to others, at least not very often.
But on Thursday, a study introduced an unwelcome wrinkle into this smooth narrative.
Infected children have at least as much of the coronavirus in their noses and throats as infected adults, according to the research. Indeed, children younger than age 5 may host up to 100 times as much of the virus in the upper respiratory tract as adults, the authors found.
That measurement does not necessarily prove children are passing the virus to others. Still, the findings should influence the debate over reopening schools, several experts said.
“The school situation is so complicated — there are many nuances beyond just the scientific one,” said Dr. Taylor Heald-Sargent, a pediatric infectious diseases expert at the Ann and Robert H. Lurie Children’s Hospital of Chicago, who led the study, published in JAMA Pediatrics.
Argentina starts trials on hyperimmune equine serum to treat COVID-19 – Reuters
Argentina has started clinical trials on treating COVID-19 using hyperimmune serum developed with antibodies from horses, authorities from the laboratory involved said on Wednesday.
The serum, produced by biotechnology company Inmunova, is obtained by injecting a SARS-CoV-2 protein, which causes the animal to generate a large amount of neutralizing antibodies. Plasma is then extracted from the horse, purified and processed.
After positive results in laboratory tests, the clinical trial to study the effectiveness of the serum will be carried out on 242 people diagnosed with the disease in moderate to severe conditions, the laboratory said.
How Did Sweden Flatten Its Curve Without a Lockdown? – MedPage
Despite never implementing a full-scale lockdown, Sweden has managed to flatten its curve, prompting its health leadership to claim victory — but others question the cost of the strategy, as the country has a far higher death toll than its Scandinavian neighbors.
In late July, Sweden’s 7-day moving average of new cases was about 200, down from a peak of around 1,140 in mid-June. Its daily death totals have been in the single digits for two weeks, well below its mid-April peak of 115 deaths in a single day.
However, on a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark’s 106 deaths per million, Finland’s 59 deaths per million, and Norway’s 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy’s 581 deaths per million.
While the positive trends have led Anders Tegnell, PhD, chief epidemiologist at the Swedish Public Health Agency and architect of Sweden’s coronavirus strategy, to state that the “Swedish strategy is working,” others have criticized the approach, including two dozen Swedish academics who published a recent USA Today editorial.
“In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief, and suffering,” they wrote. “On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease.”
Why some people who haven’t had Covid-19 might already have some immunity – KTVZ
The immune systems of some people who have not been exposed to the novel coronavirus could have some familiarity with the pathogen — possibly helping to reduce the severity of illness if that person does get Covid-19, a new study suggests.
The study, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday, found that among a sample of 68 healthy adults in Germany who had not been exposed to the coronavirus, 35% had T cells in their blood that were reactive to the virus.
T cells are part of the immune system and help protect the body from infection. T cell reactivity suggests that the immune system might have had some previous experience fighting a similar infection and may use that memory to help fight a new infection.
So how could their immune system have reactive T cells if they never had Covid-19? They were “probably acquired in previous infections with endemic” coronaviruses, the researchers — from various institutions in Germany and the United Kingdom — wrote in the new study. Using this T cell memory from another-yet-similar infection to respond to a new infection is called “cross-reactivity.”
Over 40% Of U.S. Renters Now At Risk Of Eviction – Statista
Approximately 25 million U.S. adults will stop receiving $600 federal uemployment checks from July 31. Under new proposals by Senate Republicans, those benefits would be slashed 43 percent and replaced by a $200 weekly payment through September. That is set to have enormous financial repercussions for millions of hard pressed Americans who have relied on the $600 payment to make ends meet during the economic havoc caused by the pandemic. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Federal Eviction Moratorium has also expired, placing renters with federally backed mortgages at risk of eviction. They account for more than a quarter of all U.S. renters.
White House advisor Larry Kudlow did hint at an extension of the provision during an interview on Sunday but its expiration has allowed landlords to file eviction notices, though people cannot be pushed out of their homes for another 30 days at least. Together with the cut in unemployment benefits, a perfect storm is on the horizon for America’s renters. An analysis from global advisory firm Stout Risius Ross estimates that over 40 percent of renter households across the country will experience a rental shortfall during the current crisis with close to 12 million people facing eviction over the coming four months alone. 17 million are set to be impacted over the course of the pandemic.
The analysis is based on Household Pulse Data from the middle of July and it found that the situation differs significantly between states. West Virginia has the highest estimated share of renter households facing eviction at nearly 60 percent while Tennessee, Minnesota, Mississippi, Florida and Louisiana are all at 50 percent or higher. The lowest risk of eviction is in Vermont where 22 percent of people could lose their homes.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The Diamond Princess outbreak offers a case study in aerosol transmission. – New York Times
A new analysis of one of the most mysterious and dramatic virus outbreaks — aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship early this year — points to small, floating droplets as a primary driver of virus transmission.
The analysis used computer simulations to model the outbreak on the ship, in the same way disease modelers have reconstructed the virus’s spread with computer modeling. It found that small, floating particles accounted for about 60 percent of new infections on the Diamond Princess.
The new findings, if confirmed, would have major implications for making indoor spaces safer and choosing among a panoply of personal protective equipment.
The computer modeling adds a new dimension of support to an accumulating body of evidence implicating small, airborne droplets in multiple outbreaks, including at a Chinese restaurant and among choir members in Washington State.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
COVID-19 deals hard blow to India’s private ports
In just days, Vietnam shifts from virus-free paradise to panic
France’s new COVID-19 cases hit one-month peak
Czech coronavirus spike continues as cases top 16,000
Number of coronavirus cases in Iran passes 300,000 – Health Ministry
Ukraine sees record daily high of 1,197 new coronavirus cases
Australia reports record spike in coronavirus cases, 14 deaths
Japan braces for coronavirus spike amid domestic travel campaign
Daily coronavirus cases in India top 50,000 for first time
Hong Kong on verge of ‘large-scale’ outbreak, says Carrie Lam
Michelle Bolsonaro, Brazil’s First Lady, Tests Positive For Coronavirus
Unable To Travel To Mecca, Muslim Community Holds Drive-Thru Hajj
Japan adds Hawaii to list of safe travel destinations
WHO warns of easing restrictions as Africa approaches 1 million coronavirus cases
Norway imposes 10-day quarantine on travellers from Belgium due to COVID-19
Iceland launches stricter coronavirus measures after spike in cases
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
California and Florida hit new daily record high coronavirus deaths
The Biggest Fraud Ever, Part 1: The Hocus “Science” Behind Lockdowns
California Pizza Kitchen Latest Chain to File for Bankruptcy
The Tragedy of Vaccine Nationalism – Only Cooperation Can End the Pandemic
Buddy, first dog to test positive for COVID-19 in the U.S., has died
Florida Will Pause Coronavirus Testing Due To Impending Storm
Wisconsin governor issues statewide mask mandate
Herman Cain dies after being hospitalized with the virus.
Dallas Cowboys will not make season tickets available for 2020 season
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Who Will Receive A Second Stimulus?
Advance Estimate 2Q2020 GDP Drops Deeper In Contraction
25 July 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims Increase To 1,434,000 This Week
Rail Week Ending 25 July 2020 – Mixed Data But Still Deep In Contraction
Infographic Of The Day: Understanding The Disconnect Between Consumers And The Stock Market
Agonizing Lag In Coronavirus Research Puts Pregnant Women And Babies At Risk
Cost Of Preventing The Next Pandemic Just 2% Of Covid-19 Bill
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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