Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average are 4.4 % lower than the 7-day rolling average one week ago). U.S. deaths due to coronavirus continue to worsen and are 28.4 % higher than the rolling average one week ago. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Huge Paydays for Vax Execs
- Fraudulent Products Still Plague COVID-19 Supply Chain
- Silk fabric as a functional material for face coverings during the COVID-19 pandemic
- Breitbart YouTube Video of Doctors’ Capitol Hill Coronavirus Press Conference Controversy
- Cybercrime ramps up amid coronavirus chaos, costing companies billions
- How Americans Used Their Stimulus Checks
- Dr. Fauci says kids over 9 years old can transmit the coronavirus as well as adults
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly and embarrassedly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 29 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 29 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 61,734 | 4,350,000 | 240,756 | 16,710,000 | 25.6% | 26.0% |
| Deaths** | 1,245 | 149,256 | 6,243 | 660,123 | 19.9% | 22.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.41* | 152.98* | ||||
* as of 25 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
On a lighter note
Among the Emmy Award nominees announced on Tuesday: Brad Pitt, for his Saturday Night Live portrayal of coronavirus expert Anthony Fauci, MD:
More Cities Offering Drive-Thru Covid Injection Sites To Put Citizens Out Of Misery – the Onion
In a survey of how the nation’s local officials have responded to the pandemic in the absence of a consistent federal approach, Stanford University researchers confirmed Monday that more cities have begun offering drive-thru Covid-19 injection sites to put citizens out of their misery. “By injecting people with SARS-CoV-2, these pop-up locations provide an effective way to escape the endless anguish, gloom, and isolation this virus has inflicted upon us—and all from the convenience of one’s car,” said report co-author Sara Pappas, explaining that a certain percentage of those receiving the injection inevitably die, but whether through death or immunity, all those infected receive sweet release from an untenable situation they just can’t take anymore. “Individuals who have experienced feelings of hopelessness or despair in recent months may wish to seek out one of these drive-up facilities. Restaurant and service workers who interact with the public on a regular basis can generally receive their injections for free, and those with health insurance are covered as well, with most insurers paying the full cost of the injection and up to 10% of any subsequent hospitalizations.” Pappas went on to state that if only 80 to 90% of Americans would visit these Covid-19 injection sites, the pandemic would be over in weeks.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Huge Paydays for Vax Execs – MedPage
Executives and hedge funds are cashing in as stock prices spike for pharmaceutical companies and other potential COVID-19 vaccine makers — regardless of the companies’ legitimate progress in producing a vaccine, according to the New York Times, which reviewed data from Equilar.
Insiders from at least 11 companies have sold shares worth more than $1 billion since March, the newspaper reports. Many have cashed out just before announcements of deals with the federal government’s Operation Warp Speed vaccine development program.
“Some companies are attracting government scrutiny for potentially using their associations with Operation Warp Speed as marketing ploys,” the newspaper noted.
The Times cites the case of biotech company Regeneron, whose shares have soared nearly 80% since early February, when it trumpeted its deal with the Department of Health and Human Services. Over that span, top executives and board members have sold nearly $700 million in stock — including CEO Leonard Schleifer, who sold $178 million worth of shares in one day.
The newspaper also details the case of Vaxart, a San Francisco company that touted a deal with the government in late June. But that agreement, for including its vaccine among several to be tested in primates, was not a major facet of Operation Warp Speed, the government told the Times. Yet the company has sought to connect its agreement to the program.
- COVACTA trial did not meet its primary endpoint of improved clinical status in patients with COVID-19 associated pneumonia, or the key secondary endpoint of reduced patient mortality
- The study is the first global, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase III trial investigating Actemra/RoActemra in this setting
- Roche remains committed to continuing the Actemra/RoActemra clinical trial programme in COVID-19 to further explore Actemra/RoActemra in other treatment settings, including in combination with an antiviral
SARS-CoV-2 two-dose mRNA vaccine candidate into phase II/III trials – PFIZER
- Companies advance nucleoside-modified messenger RNA (modRNA) candidate BNT162b2, which encodes an optimized SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike glycoprotein, at a 30µg dose level in a 2 dose regimen into Phase 2/3 Study
- Candidate and dose level selection informed by preclinical and clinical data obtained in Phase 1/2 studies conducted in the U.S. (C4591001) and Germany (BNT162-01)
- The Phase 2/3 study protocol follows all the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidance on clinical trial design for COVID-19 vaccine studies.
- Phase 2/3 study of up to 30,000 participants aged 18 – 85 years started in the U.S. and expected to include approximately 120 sites globally
- Trial regions to include areas with significant expected SARS-CoV-2 transmission to assess whether investigational vaccine candidate, BNT162b2, is effective in preventing COVID-19
- Assuming clinical success, Pfizer and BioNTech on track to seek regulatory review as early as October 2020 and, if regulatory authorization or approval is obtained, plan to supply up to 100 million doses by the end of 2020 and approximately 1.3 billion doses by the end of 2021
Fraudulent Products Still Plague COVID-19 Supply Chain – MedPage
The domestic supply chain for personal protective equipment (PPE) and other products related to COVID-19 needs to be made more secure in order to avoid problems with fraudulent products, hoarding, and price gouging, members of a key Senate panel said Tuesday.
“Before the coronavirus pandemic, hospitals and healthcare workers could avoid purchasing counterfeits by tapping into tried-and-true supply chains,” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said at a hearing on protecting the reliability of the U.S. medical supply chain during the COVID-19 pandemic. “However, as the demand for PPE skyrocketed, some of these providers have had to go outside their normal supply chains to source supplies, and in some cases have inadvertently purchased fake, faulty, and even illicit medical supplies.”
… Steve Francis, assistant director of the Global Trade Investigations Division at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), discussed his agency’s efforts to stop COVID-19 supply fraud, a campaign known as Operation Stolen Promise.
“Since the launch of this operation, we’ve opened over 570 criminal investigations worldwide and … while working alongside Customs and Border Protection, we’ve seized over 900 shipments of mislabeled, fraudulent, unauthorized, or prohibited COVID-19 test kits, treatment kits, homeopathic remedies, purported antiviral products, and PPE,” he said. “The largest percentage of seizures have been of COVID-19 test kits at 45%,” followed by drugs at 27%, viral lanyards — which purport to keep COVID-19 away from the wearer — at 16%, and PPE at 10%; “these products didn’t meet federal standards or provide the benefits they claimed to provide,” he said.
The worldwide shortage of single-use N95 respirators and surgical masks due to the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many health care personnel to prolong the use of their existing equipment as much as possible. In many cases, workers cover respirators with available masks in an attempt to extend their effectiveness against the virus. Due to low mask supplies, many people instead are using face coverings improvised from common fabrics. Our goal was to determine what fabrics would be most effective in both practices. Methods and findings We examined the hydrophobicity of fabrics (silk, cotton, polyester), as measured by their resistance to the penetration of small and aerosolized water droplets, an important transmission avenue for the virus causing COVID-19. We also examined the breathability of these fabrics and their ability to maintain hydrophobicity despite undergoing repeated cleaning. Tests were done when fabrics were fashioned as an overlaying barrier and also when constructed as do-it-yourself face coverings. As a protective barrier and face covering, silk is more effective at impeding the penetration and absorption of droplets due to its greater hydrophobicity relative to other tested fabrics. Silk face coverings repelled droplets as well as masks, but unlike masks they are hydrophobic and can be readily sterilized for immediate reuse. Conclusions Silk is an effective hydrophobic barrier to droplets, more breathable than other fabrics that trap humidity, and are readily re-useable via cleaning. Therefore, silk can serve as an effective material for protecting respirators under clinical conditions and as a material for face coverings.
Google Censors Breitbart YouTube Video of Doctors’ Capitol Hill Coronavirus Press Conference – Breitbart
Breitbart News reported last night that the Silicon Valley Masters of the Universe censored a video initially livestreamed by Breitbart News of a press conference held Monday afternoon in Washington D.C. by the group America’s Frontline Doctors and organized and sponsored by the Tea Party Patriots. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) was featured at the event and doctors at the event shared their views on the coronavirus pandemic and the medical community’s treatment of the virus.
The video accumulated over 17 million views on Facebook within 8 hours and had 185,000 concurrent viewers at the time it was streamed. On YouTube, a video from the event received 80,000 views before being removed by the platform for “violating YouTube’s Community Guidelines.”
The event was hosted by the organization America’s Frontline Doctors, a group founded by Dr. Simone Gold, a board-certified physician and attorney, and is comprised of medical doctors. The event’s information page states: “If Americans continue to let so-called experts and media personalities make their decisions, the great American experiment of a Constitutional Republic with Representative Democracy, will cease.”
YouTube’s removal of the clip came shortly after Facebook removed the video from its platform, with Facebook spokesperson Andy Stone telling New York Times reported Kevin Roose that the video was removed “for sharing false information about cures and treatments for COVID-19.”
[editor’s note: read the next article which is not from a political organization]
No Evidence That Doctor Group in Viral Video Got Near COVID ‘Front Lines’ – MedPage
The latest viral video promoting COVID-19 misinformation features a newly formed group called America’s Frontline Doctors. About 10 physicians, dressed in white coats with an embroidered America’s Frontline Doctors logo, spoke for 45 minutes in front of the Supreme Court on Monday on a range of COVID-19 talking points, from hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) being curative to the mental health effects of lockdown outweighing the toll of the virus itself.
But none of them have practices that would place them on the actual front lines of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some don’t currently practice at all.
Two of those appearing at the Monday event are ophthalmologists, one of whom is no longer licensed. MedPage Today could find no evidence that any of the speakers worked in hospitals with significant numbers of COVID-19 patients.
The group’s website, which according to internet records was created on July 16, was de-activated on Tuesday (though past versions can be seen on web archives). Major social media platforms have sought to remove the video from their pages.
Late Tuesday, the group was delivering a second press conference as part of a two-day “summit.”
Cybercrime ramps up amid coronavirus chaos, costing companies billions – CNBC
- Data breaches have grown in intensity and frequency in recent months as cybercriminals take advantage of coronavirus confusion.
- Large-scale data breaches increased 273% in the first quarter, compared to the same time last year, according to a new study from cloud computing company Iomart.
- Among the most common types of attacks are ransomware, destructive attacks and island hopping.
How Americans Used Their Stimulus Checks – Statista
As Congress continues to grapple with a follow-up relief package to the CARES Act, there’s one thing that Republicans and Democrats seem to agree on: however the final bill will end up looking, it is all but certain to include a second round of stimulus checks for 100+ million Americans.
The CARES Act, passed on March 27, provided Economic Impact Payments of up to $1,200 per adult to individuals whose income was less than $99,000 ($198,000 for joint filers) and $500 per child under 17 years old – or up to $3,400 for a family of four. According to a statement from IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig, 160 million payments worth a total of $270 billion had been made by the end of June, and it is believed that the stimulus checks played a vital role in cushioning consumer spending amid the unprecedented jobs crisis.
As the following chart, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, shows, the stimulus payments were used to pay for a wide range of things, with essentials like food, utilities and household supplies on top of the list. Combined with the fact that only few Americans used the windfall to buy non-essentials like recreational goods and electronics or even to build up savings, this goes to show that the federal checks were crucial in enabling affected households to pay their bills. As the weekly $600 in additional unemployment benefits ran out this week, with no compromise on a possible extension found yet, millions of Americans will be hoping for a quick arrival of the second round of stimulus payments to give them a hint of financial security in these difficult times.
You will find more infographics at Statista
More than 6,300 cases have been linked to U.S. colleges. – New York Times
A Times survey of every public four-year college in the country, as well as every private institution that competes in Division I sports or is a member of an elite group of research universities, revealed at least 6,300 cases tied to about 270 colleges over the course of the pandemic. And the new academic year has not yet begun at most schools.
There is no standardized reporting method for cases and deaths at colleges, and the information is not being publicly tracked at a national level. Of nearly 1,000 institutions contacted by The Times, some had already posted case information online, some provided full or partial numbers and others refused to answer basic questions, citing privacy concerns. Hundreds of colleges did not respond at all.
- White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci warned parents sending kids back to school that children over 9 years old can spread the coronavirus as well as adults.
- A recently published study in South Korea indicated that although kids under the age of 9 were less likely than adults to transmit the virus to their families, teenagers were at least as likely to transmit the disease as adults.
- Some areas of the country will have an easier time welcoming students back to school since the virus isn’t spreading uncontrollably, he added.
Russia intends to be the first in the world to approve a coronavirus vaccine, in less than two weeks — despite concerns about its safety, effectiveness and over whether the country has cut essential corners in development, CNN has learned.
Russian officials told CNN they are working toward a date of August 10 or earlier for approval of the vaccine, which has been created by the Moscow-based Gamaleya Institute.
It will be approved for public use, with frontline healthcare workers getting it first, they said.
“It’s a Sputnik moment,” said Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is financing Russian vaccine research, referring to the successful 1957 launch of the world’s first satellite by the Soviet Union.
“Americans were surprised when they heard Sputnik’s beeping. It’s the same with this vaccine. Russia will have got there first,” he added.
But Russia has released no scientific data on its vaccine testing and CNN is unable to verify its claimed safety or effectiveness. Critics say the country’s push for a vaccine comes amid political pressure from the Kremlin, which is keen to portray Russia as a global scientific force.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘Act now and act fast’: Vietnam says every city at risk of coronavirus
A mysterious outbreak is catching Vietnam by surprise.
French health minister says observing social distancing ‘vital’ to avoid new lockdown
India eases more Covid-19 restrictions as cases top 1.5 million
How Mecca’s Grand Mosque is keeping worshipers socially distanced during Hajj
Coronavirus latest: Vaccine unlikely before mid-2021, Germany says
European Commission secures EU access to Remdesivir for treatment of COVID-19
India coronavirus: ‘More than half of Mumbai slum-dwellers had Covid-19’
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Florida reports record one-day increase in COVID-19 deaths
After a party, 18 anesthesiologists at UF hospital system diagnosed with COVID
Federal prisons reach grim milestone: 100 inmate deaths from coronavirus
Trump’s New Favorite COVID Doctor Believes in Alien DNA, Demon Sperm, and Hydroxychloroquine
Why We Grow Numb To Staggering Statistics — And What We Can Do About It
Teachers Union OKs Strikes If Schools Reopen Without Safety Measures In Place
North Carolina to ban sale of alcohol after 11 PM
Georgetown University will go virtual for fall semester
NBA announces zero positive COVID-19 tests before season resumes
‘We’re running out of homes for sale,’ Lake Tahoe brokers say as tech workers flee Bay Area
U.S. Open to be held without fans because of coronavirus pandemic
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
21 States Are In Coronavirus Red Zone As US Death Toll Passes 150,000
29 June 2020 FOMC Meeting Statement: Little New To Chew On
June 2020 Pending Home Sales Again Has A Significant Improvement
Why Commercial Real Estate Is Set To Get Slammed
Temporary Layoffs As A Measure Of Firms Forecast Of The Future
Deep European Recession Forecast For 2020
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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