July 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves

Of the five regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Market expectations from Econoday were -14 to 0 (consensus -5). The actual survey value was 10 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Manufacturing in the Fifth District showed signs of recovery in July, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from 0 in June to 10 in July, its first positive reading since March, buoyed by increases in all three components. The indexes for shipments and new orders suggested expansion, while the third component index—employment— remained slightly negative. The local business conditions index rose further, suggesting some improvement in sentiment. Survey respondents were optimistic that conditions would improve in the next six months.

Survey results suggest that some firms saw continued decreases in employment in July, as this index remained negative, despite reaching its highest value since February. Many firms also reported increased wages. Respondents expected employment and wages to rise in the coming months.

On average, survey respondents saw decreases in the growth rates of both prices paid and prices received but expected growth to rise in the near future

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Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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