Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average is now the same as one week ago (yesterday it was 1 % lower). U.S. Death rates due to coronavirus had been holding relatively steady (although the 7-day rolling average is increasing). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global coronavirus new cases set a new record today
- We don’t want to find out what happens if as many kids get coronavirus as the flu
- More than a third of coronavirus patients feel symptoms for weeks
- What COVID-19 does to a child’s body
- MIT researchers create a reusable face mask that works like an N95 respirator
- More than a third of coronavirus patients feel symptoms for weeks
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high.
The following graphs show the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases and deaths has been updated through 25 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 25 July 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 78,427 | 4,110,000 | 281,742 | 15,760,000 | 27.8% | 26.1% |
Deaths** | 1,304 | 145,546 | 6,147 | 639,273 | 21.2% | 22.8% |
Mortality Rate | 1.7% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.34* | 147.42* |
* as of 23 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Dr. Scott Gottlieb: ‘We don’t want to find out’ what happens if as many kids get coronavirus as flu – CNBC
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb on Friday warned against comparing the risks of the coronavirus for children with those from the seasonal influenza.
- “The reality is that flu last year infected 11.8 million kids. We have not infected anywhere near that number of kids with Covid, and we don’t want to find out what it might look like if we did,” Gottlieb said on “Closing Bell.”
- “We really do want to prevent outbreaks in the school setting,” the former FDA commissioner stressed.
Florida surpasses New York state in total Covid-19 cases – CNN
Florida has now surpassed New York in total coronavirus cases, according to reports from state health agencies.
Florida health officials have reported that a total of 414,511 cases of coronavirus, including 409,585 residents and 4,926 non-residents, have been diagnosed since the start of the pandemic.
New York state reported 411,200 total positive cases on Saturday, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. Florida now has more total cases than New York.
Both Florida and New York are behind California, which currently leads the country in cases with 435,334, according to California’s health department website.
The U.S. nears a single-day record as infections show no sign of slowing. – New York Times
The United States came just short of breaking its single-day record for new coronavirus cases, adding more than 73,400 on Friday, the second-highest daily total, and signaling that infection rates show no signs of slowing.
The single-day record, set on July 16, is 75,697 cases. Since June 24, the seven-day average has more than doubled, from 31,402 to more than 66,100 on Friday.
Friday was also the fourth consecutive day with more than 1,100 deaths reported.
Why do asymptomatic COVID-19 cases even happen? – National Geographic
THE FACTS OF COVID-19 include this disturbing reality: We have little idea who among us is spreading the disease.
Up to half of stealthy spreaders “feel fine” on Saturday night—but by the time they come down with the telltale cough, fever, and fatigue on Monday, they’ve potentially infected multitudes. Meanwhile, what could be an even more elusive bunch—people who are infected with the coronavirus but never, ever feel sick—make up 40 percent of infections in the United States, according to estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
What’s especially puzzling is why these two groups—presymptomatic transmitters and asymptomatic cases—appear so frequently. Other viruses, such as influenza and colds, spread silently too. But the extreme evasiveness of COVID-19 makes it harder to control.
Part of the problem is knowing so little about how the disease manifests. We know that people who are old, obese, or have other health conditions such as asthma or diabetes, are more likely to develop a severe form of COVID-19. But the people who get infected yet escape the worst of its wrath are harder to comprehend.
[editor’s note: it is hard to summarize this article and it is worth a complete read]
COVID-19 More Deadly Than Cancer Itself? – MedPage
During the recent months of the pandemic, cancer patients undergoing active treatment saw their risk for death increase 15-fold with a COVID-19 diagnosis, real-world data from two large healthcare systems in the Midwest found.
Among nearly 40,000 patients who had undergone treatment for their cancer at some point over the past year, 15% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 died from February to May 2020, as compared to 1% of those not diagnosed with COVID-19 during this same timeframe, reported Shirish Gadgeel, MD, of the Henry Ford Cancer Institute in Detroit.
And in more than 100,000 cancer survivors, 11% of those diagnosed with COVID-19 died compared to 1% of those not diagnosed with COVID-19, according to the findings presented at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) COVID-19 and Cancer meeting.
“Certain comorbidities were more commonly seen in patients with COVID-19,” said Gadgeel. “This included cardiac arrhythmias, renal failure, congestive heart failure, and pulmonary circulation disorders.”
Here’s what COVID-19 does to a child’s body – National Geographic
SINCE THE BEGINNING of the coronavirus pandemic, children have been largely spared the worst health impacts of COVID-19. The same SARS-CoV-2 virus capable of killing a 50-year-old might leave a four-year-old unscathed.
Now, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is recommending K-12 schools reopen this fall, saying the health risks should be weighed against the detriment of being kept home—which disproportionately impacts low-income and minority children and those with disabilities who may rely more on programs like school lunch and after-school care. When those children are kept from school, their grades slip, mental and physical health suffers, key times to socialize are lost, and many are falling behind on their routine vaccines.
“Children are suffering in different ways from adults,” says Megan Tschudy, a pediatrician at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
However, scientists are still struggling to understand how the virus affects children and whether kids can spread it to their older caregivers. Overall, scientists don’t fully understand why multiple kinds of coronaviruses—including COVID-19 and its viral cousins SARS and MERS—have different levels of severity across age ranges, says Rachel Graham, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill.
Graham, who first spoke with National Geographic in March about COVID-19’s effects on children, says our understanding of why the virus seems to go easy on kids has not fundamentally advanced since then. Even with increased testing showing that more kids are capable of contracting the virus than we previously thought, experts can only theorize as to why children are largely spared the intense version of COVID-19 that strikes so many adults.
It’s also unclear how easily kids can spread the virus, both to each other and to adults. One robust study of nearly 65,000 kids published by the South Korean Center for Disease Control last week showed that children in the 10- to 19-year-old age range could spread COVID-19 within households just as effectively as adults.
MIT researchers create reusable face mask that works like an N95 respirator – KTLA
Nurses and doctors have gone to creative extremes to reuse the same masks, gloves and scrubs they need to treat contagious coronavirus patients. But if a prototype mask created by researchers proves widely effective, it may be a safer alternative for health care workers.
Researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston have developed the iMASC, a new silicone mask that can be safely reused without fear of contamination. Researchers still need to analyze how effectively it catches viral particles, but it’s a promising step toward addressing the critical health care supply shortages.
The iMASC offers a level of protection comparable to N95 respirator masks, its creators say. That’s partially because it uses an N95 filter without all the additional material of N95 masks that catches particles.
The masks are based on the shape of a typical N95 mask, too, but they’re made with a silicone rubber that can be sterilized after each use. The dual filters that cover the mouth can be replaced after each use, too, the researchers said.
- President Trump has used increased coronavirus testing as an explanation for the surge in case counts across the U.S.
- A CNBC analysis of testing data has found that even as the U.S. has increased its testing capacity, cases of the virus are being found at a higher rate, a pattern that contradicts what epidemiologists say should be happening as a country gets a pandemic under control.
- The percentage of positive tests in the U.S. has increased from 5.4% on Memorial Day to 8.6% on July 23, and that figure has also risen in 29 states over the same time period.
More than a third of coronavirus patients feel symptoms for weeks, CDC says – CNN
Coronavirus symptoms can stick around for weeks, even in otherwise healthy people who don’t have a severe case of the virus, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a grim new analysis.
The CDC surveyed 292 people who tested positive for the virus, and 35% said they still weren’t back to their usual good health even two or three weeks after testing positive.
While older people were more likely to feel prolonged symptoms, even young adults without underlying conditions reported feeling unwell for a long period of time, the CDC said.
The new understanding into how the virus affects patients comes as more than 4.1 million cases of coronavirus cases and more than 145,500 deaths have been reported in the US, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
Health experts have stressed the importance of testing to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus but have also said that people who do not show symptoms can spread of the virus.
On Friday, the US Food and Drug Administration announced an emergency use authorization for the first coronavirus test that can be used for asymptomatic cases — and even people who think they aren’t infected at all.
12 Test Positive for COVID-19, Told Results Were Negative – US News
Twelve Delaware residents who tested positive for COVID-19 were incorrectly told they had tested negative, state public health officials acknowledged Friday.
Officials confirmed the incorrect reports after a Bridgeville man was hospitalized with the virus Thursday after being told he had tested negative.
Katey Evans said she didn’t know how long her husband, Kevin, will remain in the hospital.
“He sounds like he’s improving,” she said.
Evans said she, her husband and their three children went to get tested at a Walgreens pharmacy in Bridgeville last Friday after their 6-year-old daughter had tested positive earlier last week. All were told Tuesday that their results had come back negative.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
AIDA Crew Members Test Positive for COVID-19
‘Could Already Be A Second Wave’: Some Restrictions Return As Cases Spike In Spain
Vietnam’s first local case in 100 days is a puzzle for contact tracers.
Doors slam on Spain as it battles new outbreaks.
Emirates airline will pay medical expenses if passengers catch COVID-19 while travelling
South Korea reports highest single-day rise in coronavirus cases since March
Hundreds of hospital workers infected with Covid-19 in Victoria, Australia
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
ICE Confirms New Foreign Students Can’t Take Online-Only Course Loads In The U.S.
Texas areas where the virus has surged are now braced for Hurricane Hanna.
The Supreme Court rejects a Nevada church’s challenge to shutdown restrictions.
Pennsylvania Sees Another Day Of More Than 1,000 COVID-19 Infections
Coronavirus In Maryland: Over 1,200 New Cases Reported As Total Tops 83K
Covid-19 is impacting how weather experts issue hurricane forecasts
Florida Adds 12,199 Coronavirus Cases Saturday, 124 New Deaths; Miami-Dade Surpasses 100K Cases
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
COVID-19 And The Great Recession: Market Hours And Home Production Across American Households
Teleworking Is Not Working For The Poor, The Young, And The Women
Infographic Of The Day: Tracking The Growing Wave Of Oil And Gas Bankruptcies In 2020
Is The Labor Market Going To Be Weak For The Long-Term?
Massive Online Open Courses See Exponential Growth During COVID-19 Pandemic
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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