Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. new cases 7-day rolling average DID NOT set a new record – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 1.0 % lower than one week ago (yesterday it was 6 % higher which means the rate of acceleration continues to slow). U.S. Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady (today deaths were well above the median of values seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;

• Global coronavirus deaths set a new record today
• U.S. passed another grim milestone of 4 million cases
• Covid-19 vaccine probably won’t be ‘widely available’ until several months into 2021, Fauci says
• COVID-19 Slams Parkinson’s Disease Patients
• Unsupervised home swabs for COVID-19 testing does as well as clinician-collected nasopharyngeal swab collection
• COVID-19 Tests Will Soon Cover Flu Too
• More than half the restaurants closed due to the pandemic are shut down for good,

My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry a higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.

The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high.

The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 24 July 2020:

z coronavirus.png​

* as of 24 July 2020

** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number

*** red color indicates record number

According to CNBC:

In a possible sign that the new case curve is starting to flatten in the U.S., the seven-day moving average fell to 66,084 on Wednesday from 67,300 the day before, according to a CNBC analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. That is the eighth straight day the seven-day moving average has been stuck in a range between 65,500 and 67,300.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

Covid-19 vaccine probably won’t be ‘widely available’ until several months into 2021, Fauci says – CNN

A Covid-19 vaccine likely won’t be “widely available” in the US until “several months” into next year, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Friday.

“I think as we get into 2021, several months in, that you would have [a] vaccine that would be widely available to people in the United States,” Fauci told the Washington Post’s Bob Costa during a Post Live event.

It was a clear acknowledgment that approval, manufacturing and distribution of a vaccine would take months, even if one is found to work by the end of this year.

“The key word there, Bob, is widely available,” Fauci said.

A number of virus clusters in the U.S. have been traced back to school-related events or gatherings of teenagers. – New York Times

While the C.D.C.’s new guidance for opening schools downplayed the risks the virus poses to school-aged children, a number of recent clusters of virus cases around the United States have been linked to school-related events and gatherings of teenagers.

In O’Fallon, Mo., just outside of St. Louis, 19 students from St. Dominic High School and two of their guests tested positive after attending an outdoor graduation ceremony on July 8 that was followed by an off-site prom July 10, the school said in a statement this week.

In Middletown, N.J., officials are investigating a cluster of roughly 20 cases in teenagers between the ages of 15 and 19 who contracted the virus after attending a party. “The cases may be related to a house party that allegedly occurred on or about July 11th,” the township said in a statement. New Jersey’s governor urged people with connections to the cluster or the party to cooperate with contact tracers, saying this week that while he does not condone underage drinking, “this isn’t a witch hunt.”

… While children infected by the virus are at low risk of becoming severely ill or dying, how often they become infected and how efficiently they spread the virus is not definitively known. A large new study from South Korea found that children younger than 10 transmit the virus to others much less often than adults do, but that those between the ages of 10 and 19 can spread the virus at least as well as adults do.

Not All Cloth Masks Are Equally Protective – MedPage

The CDC has recommended wearing a mask to reduce spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, although surgical and N95 type masks should be reserved for healthcare settings due to limited supply. Studies and meta-analyses have backed reduced transmission of the virus with the lower-grade masks and supported multi-layer versions as more protective.

A recent study in JAMA showed a decline in healthcare workers testing positive for SARS-CoV-19 after implementing universal masking of patients. CDC leaders pointed to it as “practical, timely, and compelling evidence that community-wide face covering is another means to help control the national COVID-19 crisis,” which they suggested is “a civic duty, a small sacrifice reliant on a highly effective low-tech solution that can help turn the tide favorably in national and global efforts against COVID-19.”

MacIntyre’s study used the CDC’s directions for a single-layer, “quick cut T-shirt face covering (no-sew method)” and a two-layer mask following the agency’s method for sewing one. The cloth used was made of 175 g/m2 cotton fabric with a thread count of 170 TPI, close to what’s used in quality T-shirts.

Which Countries Are Deploying Coronavirus Tracing Apps? – Statista

The list of countries that are developing or that have released coronavirus tracing apps is extensive and according to tracking by the MIT Technology Review, close to 50 governments are currently implementing it. The technology was quickly seen as a potential way to limit the spread of the pandemic by identifying and notifying people who came into contact with carriers of Covid-19. Even though tracing apps have shown promise, they are highly controversial due to privacy concerns. The extent to which the apps collect user data varies considerably by country with China’s system harvesting everything from citizens’ identity, location and online payment history to Germany’s Corona-Warn App which complies with Berlin’s strict laws on privacy.

Despite the concerns, experts have said that the apps can indeed prove crticial in improving contact tracing and identifying chains of infection. The technology does have other weaknesses apart from privacy and one glaring one is that an app needs a large userbase. In Germany, it was initially stated that 60 percent of the population needed to install the Corona-Warn App but that figure was later dismissed by Health Minister Jens Spahn who said he would be satisfied if a few million users downloaded it. So far, 14 million Germans have installed the app and the coronavirus situation in the country remains largely under control, with some localized outbreaks contained in recent weeks.

Another weakness that has to be mentioned is that states are developing apps individually which means they are not compatible between countries. For example, if a German traveler departing Paris and arriving in Cologne tests positive for the virus at a German facility, no warning will be sent through the French contact tracing system to his or her contacts back in the capital. That may leave travelers with no option other than to install several apps (or to just stay at home if possible).

The patchwork individual approach to developing contact tracing apps is also evident within the borders of the United States where their introduction has been plagued with problems. There is no single app in development for the whole country – the decision to use one rests with public health authorities in different states. Apple and Google announced on April 10 that they are building contact tracing technology into their operating systems (Germany’s app is based on their technology) but by mid-July, only four U.S. states said they will participate in the project. That’s according to website 9 to 5 Mac who are tracking the situation at state level.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Hydroxychloroquine with or without Azithromycin in Mild-to-Moderate Covid-19 – New England Journal of Medicine

[editor’s note: Another study dumps on hydroxychloroquine and also demonstrates a QT prolongation risk]

A total of 667 patients underwent randomization; 504 patients had confirmed Covid-19 and were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. As compared with standard care, the proportional odds of having a higher score on the seven-point ordinal scale at 15 days was not affected by either hydroxychloroquine alone (odds ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 2.11; P=1.00) or hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.57 to 1.73; P=1.00). Prolongation of the corrected QT interval and elevation of liver-enzyme levels were more frequent in patients receiving hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, than in those who were not receiving either agent.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients hospitalized with mild-to-moderate Covid-19, the use of hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin, did not improve clinical status at 15 days as compared with standard care. (Funded by the Coalition Covid-19 Brazil and EMS Pharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04322123. opens in new tab.)

Nearly 3,500 Public Health Experts Signal Support for Fauci – Center for Science

Nearly 3,500 of the nation’s leading public health experts are speaking out against White House attacks on National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease Director Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and are calling on President Donald Trump not to sideline science or scientists as the country continues to reel from the COVID-19 pandemic. The signers include two former Commissioners of the Food and Drug Administration, two former directors of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a former Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, a former Surgeon General, several leading medical journal editors, and hundreds of the nation’s most prominent physicians, researchers, and public health experts.

The open letter to President Trump was drafted by former FDA Associate Commissioner Dr. Peter Lurie, now President of the Center for Science in the Public Interest, and epidemiologist and longtime AIDS activist Gregg Gonsalves, now of Yale School of Public Health, who began circulating the open letter on Friday evening.

COVID-19 Slams Parkinson’s Disease Patients – MedPage

Most Parkinson’s disease patients who had COVID-19 reported new or worsening motor and non-motor symptoms, survey data from the Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson’s Research showed.

And among Parkinson’s patients not infected with the virus, nearly two-thirds also reported adverse effects from the pandemic: canceled healthcare appointments, reductions in home care, or difficulty obtaining medications, according to Caroline Tanner, MD, PhD, of the University of California San Francisco, and co-authors in a manuscript published on the medRxiv preprint server.

The findings represent the first and largest self-reported data set to date about Parkinson’s disease symptoms and care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. “This is quite useful because it gives us insight into the patient’s own experience,” Tanner said in an interview with MedPage Today. “Pretty much everyone had a worsening of Parkinson’s symptoms if they were also infected with COVID-19.”

Comparison of Unsupervised Home Self-collected Midnasal Swabs With Clinician-Collected Nasopharyngeal Swabs for Detection of SARS-CoV-2 Infection – JAMA Network

Unsupervised home midnasal swab collection was comparable to clinician-collected nasopharyngeal swab collection for detection of SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic patients, particularly those with higher viral loads. During this rapidly evolving pandemic, we enrolled 185 individuals presenting for SARS-CoV-2 testing, including 41 with positive test results. We used novel home-based swab self-collection and rapid delivery services, thus avoiding participant contact with the health care system.

Unsupervised home self-swab collection presents several advantages, including accessibility outside of the health care system and minimizing personal protective equipment use. This approach is safe and scalable in the pandemic setting, permitting widespread testing of symptomatic participants early in illness and the potential for prompt self-isolation and contract tracing. The sensitivity of home self-collection in this study was lower than previously described.1 We observed false-negative results in samples with low initial viral loads.2–4 A home-based strategy should be targeted toward individuals early in illness, when risk of transmission is highest and care seeking less likely.

Limitations of the study include shipping at ambient temperature, which may have led to sample degradation. However, we have demonstrated stability of respiratory viruses at ambient temperatures up to 9 days.5 Second, home self-collection often occurred 1 day after clinician collection, likely leading to samples with lower viral load. Third, many participants were health care workers, potentially limiting generalizability to the general population. Fourth, clinician-collected swabs are an imperfect criterion standard that may introduce bias.

As societies reopen, expansion of testing is critical for preventing a global resurgence in COVID-19. Home swab collection has the potential to play a pivotal role in increasing testing access across the broader population.

Where extreme heat and Covid-19 collide, experts fear a dangerous recipe for at-risk communities – CNN

From the start, the Covid-19 pandemic has revealed America’s social and economic inequality in stark relief, by disproportionately infecting and killing people of color, the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions.

Now, as the country sweats through the thick of what is likely to be another sweltering summer, another invisible threat looms.

This weekend, as a heat wave bakes huge swaths of the country under triple-digit heat indexes, some fear that the collision of Covid-19 and extreme heat could be a dangerous combination.

Extreme heat can threaten anyone, but many of the same groups who are at greatest risk of serious illness from the coronavirus are also the most vulnerable groups to heat exposure.

The CDC released new science-based resources to support school reopenings. – CDC

For School and Program Administrators

Preparing for a Safe Return to School

The latest science on transmission risk, and the costs and benefits of opening schools

Preparing Schools

Operating Schools During COVID-19

Guiding principles and mitigation strategies to use when school is open

Operating Schools

• Cloth Face Coverings in Schools
• Screening Students for Symptoms
• Testing in Schools

A new C.D.C. statement on schools calls for reopening and downplays the potential health risks. – New York Times

The top U.S. public health agency issued a full-throated call to reopen schools in a package of new “resources and tools” posted on its website Thursday night that opened with a statement that sounded more like a political speech than a scientific document, listing numerous benefits for children of being in school and downplaying the potential health risks.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published the new guidance two weeks after President Trump criticized its earlier recommendations on school reopenings as “very tough and expensive,” ramping up what had already been an anguished national debate over the question of how soon children should return to classrooms. As the president was criticizing the initial C.D.C. recommendations, a document from the agency surfaced that detailed the risks of reopening and the steps that districts were taking to minimize those risks.

“Reopening schools creates opportunity to invest in the education, well-being, and future of one of America’s greatest assets — our children — while taking every precaution to protect students, teachers, staff and all their families,” the new opening statement said.

How the coronavirus almost killed a healthy woman with “no normal symptoms” – CBS

Rebecca Wrixon knew that working as a nanny for a pair of doctors could leave her exposed to the coronavirus, but as a healthy 44-year-old with young children, she didn’t worry much about catching COVID-19. It was already clear then, in early April, that the disease hit the elderly and those with underlying conditions hard, but it didn’t seem much of a threat to her healthy family.

Rebecca Wrixon is seen at University Hospital Southampton during treatment for severe inflammation of the brain caused by COVID-19 infection. COURTESY OF REBECCA WRIXON

Then one morning just after Easter, Wrixon woke up with a numb arm.

She never had a cough or fever, never lost her sense of taste or smell, and it would take doctors days to even diagnose COVID-19 — and much longer to figure out how to stop her body’s reaction to it. The insidious disease quietly caused her body to attack itself, inflaming her brain, paralyzing half of her body, rendering her unable to see or speak, and almost killing her in the process.

Researchers in Britain now believe COVID-19 may hit many more people with similar neurological symptoms than commonly thought — including younger patients and those who, like Wrixon, never experience the most well-known signs of the disease.

COVID-19 Tests Will Soon Cover Flu Too, Giroir Says – MedPage

Future COVID-19 tests will also be able to test for influenza A and B, according to Trump administration “testing czar” Adm. Brett Giroir, MD.

“Most of these tests will be multiplex by flu season — one PCR test will diagnose both influenza A/B or COVID,” Giroir, who is assistant secretary for health in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), told MedPage Today during a phone call with reporters Thursday afternoon. “Everybody’s going down that developmental pathway.”

He urged everyone to get their flu vaccine in order to lessen the spread of influenza, which kills 30,000 to 70,000 people each year. “I’m a pediatric ICU doctor; I lost children from influenza every single year of my career, and most of those children — the great majority — didn’t get vaccinated,” he said. “That’s a tragedy.”

More than half the restaurants closed due to the pandemic are shut down for good, Yelp says – USA Today

As states have moved to reopen nonessential businesses in recent months, many restaurants still haven’t turned the lights back on, and more than half of them never will.

The alarming statistic came out of Yelp’s latest Economic Average report, released Wednesday. The review service’s quarterly bulletin revealed that 60% of the restaurants that temporarily shuttered due to the pandemic have since permanently closed.

As of July 10, there were 26,160 total restaurant closures on Yelp, and 15,770 of those are shut down for good, Yelp said. Many small businesses shifted to curbside pickup and online ordering in recent months, but those measures weren’t enough to sustain the business long term, the review platform found.

The coronavirus-induced business climate has hit bars and nightlife establishments hard, too. Of all the bars listed on Yelp, 5,454 are closed, and 2,429 (44%) of those are permanent shutdowns.

Nearly half of Americans whose families experienced a layoff believe those jobs lost to coronavirus are gone forever – Chicago Tribune

Nearly half of Americans whose families experienced a layoff during the coronavirus pandemic now believe those jobs are lost forever, a new poll shows, a sign of increasing pessimism that would translate into roughly 10 million workers needing to find a new employer, if not a new occupation.

It’s a sharp change after initial optimism the jobs would return, as temporary cutbacks give way to shuttered businesses, bankruptcies and lasting payroll cuts. In April, 78% of those in households with a job loss thought they’d be temporary. Now, 47% think that lost job is definitely or probably not coming back, according to the latest poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

The poll is the latest sign the solid hiring of May and June, as some states lifted stay-at-home orders and the economy began to recover, may wane as the year goes on. Adding to the challenge: Many students will begin the school year online, making it harder for parents to take jobs outside their homes.

“Honestly, at this point, there’s not going to be a job to go back to,” said Tonica Daley, 35, who lives in Riverside, California, and has four children ranging from 3 to 18 years old. “The kids are going to do virtual school, and there is no day care.”

The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

As global cases keep soaring, the virus rebounds in places that seemed to have tamed it.

WHO chief denounces ‘unacceptable’ comments questioning his independence

Japanese officials limit their focus to Tokyo’s nightlife to explain the country’s resurgence.

Hong Kong third wave: China’s top health body pledges to support Covid-19 fight as city confirms another record-high 123 infections

49,000 Coronavirus Cases In Record Single-Day Surge In India: 10 Points

The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts

Fed hoped to skirt a second virus wave. Small businesses may sink in it

Trump cancels parts of GOP convention set for Jacksonville, Florida, citing coronavirus

McDonald’s Will Require Face Masks At Its More Than 14,000 U.S. Restaurants

In Reversal, Trump Says Schools In Coronavirus Hot Spots Should Delay Reopening

Southwest And American Airlines Tighten Their Mask Requirements By Ending Exemptions

Florida Sets Yet Another Coronavirus Record: 173 Deaths In A Day

FEMA has been sending faulty gear to nursing homes fighting to protect the elderly.

A rural county in Texas says its only hospital will determine whether to treat patients based on their chances of survival.

DOD is scouting contractors to set up potential mobile coronavirus hospitals in Florida as outbreak worsens

Signify plans production hike of UV light that breaks down coronavirus particles in seconds

Texas coronavirus outbreak ‘going to take a little while’ to eliminate, Gov. Abbott says

Arizona reports 3,349 new COVID-19 cases as hospitalizations continue gradual decline

At least 22 coronavirus cases tied to Pickaway County [Ohio] fair

Redfield: New CDC Guidance Is Meant to Help Schools Open, Not Keep Them Closed

FAA orders emergency engine checks of parked Boeing 737s

96 employees at seafood processing plant [in Seward, Alaska] test positive for Covid-19

Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks

17 July 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues But Remains In Contraction

June 2020 Headline New Home Sales Remain Strong

Rail Week Ending 18 June 2020 – Improvement Continues But Still Deep In Contraction

Infographic Of The Day: The Impact Of COVID-19 Shutdowns On The Gold Supply Chain

The Constitution Doesn’t Have A Problem With Mask Mandates

U.S. Airlines Hit Turbulence Amid COVID-19 Pandemic

People Are Dying In US Prisons, And Not Just From COVID-19

Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts

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