Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average continues to set new records – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 6 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 8 % which means the rate of acceleration is slowing – the rate of acceleration has been slowing since the end of June). U.S. Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady (today deaths were well above the median of values seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Global coronavirus new cases set a new record today
- 18 July 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,416,000 This Week – First Rise Since Early In The Pandemic
- The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19
- Pinning hopes on the vaccine is not the right coronavirus strategy
- Can You Get Covid-19 Again? It’s Very Unlikely
- U.S. sets global benchmark for COVID-19 vaccine price at around the cost of a flu shot
- The coronavirus threatens auto industry recovery as cases rise and more employees miss work
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 23 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 23 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 68,848 | 3,970,000 | 280,933 | 15,290,000 | 24.5% | 26.1% |
| Deaths** | 1,124 | 143,190 | 6,963 | 623,282 | 16.1% | 23.0% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 4.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.26* | 142.67* | ||||
* as of 21 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
This week CDC received 26 individual national forecasts. This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts there will likely be between 160,000 and 175,000 total reported COVID-19 deaths by August 15th.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
The people with hidden immunity against Covid-19 – BBC
While the latest research suggests that antibodies against Covid-19 could be lost in just three months, a new hope has appeared on the horizon: the enigmatic T cell.
The clues have been mounting for a while. First, scientists discovered patients who had recovered from infection with Covid-19, but mysteriously didn’t have any antibodies against it. Next it emerged that this might be the case for a significant number of people. Then came the finding that many of those who do develop antibodies seem to lose them again after just a few months.
In short, though antibodies have proved invaluable for tracking the spread of the pandemic, they might not have the leading role in immunity that we once thought. If we are going to acquire long-term protection, it looks increasingly like it might have to come from somewhere else.
But while the world has been preoccupied with antibodies, researchers have started to realise that there might be another form of immunity – one which, in some cases, has been lurking undetected in the body for years. An enigmatic type of white blood cell is gaining prominence. And though it hasn’t previously featured heavily in the public consciousness, it may well prove to be crucial in our fight against Covid-19. This could be the T cell’s big moment.
Coronavirus cases could reach 150,000 a day this fall, widely followed Morgan Stanley analyst says – CNBC
- Morgan Stanley’s biotechnology analyst, Matthew Harrison, said 150,000 daily new U.S. coronavirus cases are possible in the fall without better control of the virus.
- The analyst has gained a wide following on Wall Street for his success in predicting the course of the pandemic and government responses.
- Harrison previously projected a “second wave” in the fall with daily new cases between 40,000 and 50,000 nationwide.
- However, the recent hot spots — Arizona, Texas, Florida and California — have shown a high rate of infection, which led the analyst to adjust to a more pessimistic view on the pandemic.
Pandemic is about to shift a lot more jobs outside America’s highest-priced cities – UpWork
- The wage and opportunity gap is large: On average, wages in the top 15 most expensive metros for skilled occupations were $40.54 per hour, compared to $28.36 for the average place, a premium of over 40% for the exact same occupation.
- Remote work is already spreading economic opportunity across the country: Despite having only 19% of the U.S. population, businesses are highly concentrated in the top 15 most expensive places. However, with remote work, 49% of business spend is going from the top 15 most expensive places to lower cost places.
- Independent professionals can make more working remotely: Upwork project data shows when businesses in the top 15 most expensive places engage independent professionals remotely, they will earn, on average, 18.6% more than average wages in the same occupational categories in their local market, and 8-11% more than Upwork clients in their local labor market pay.
- Professionals looking to relocate can benefit in more affordable metros: Despite having higher pay in the top 15 most expensive places, the extremely high cost of living means that a high percent of earnings are eroded by housing costs. The price to income ratio in those top 15 metros is, on average, more than double the rest of the country, to an average of 680% and as high as 1,260%.
- Businesses engaging remote professionals will see benefits that extend well beyond cost savings: While hiring outside of the top 15 most expensive places can help lower costs, it can also provide access to a larger talent pool, and even improvements to productivity.
Coronavirus measures lead to lower influenza numbers across the Southern Hemisphere – The Hill
Coronavirus restrictions have led to lower influenza numbers across the Southern Hemisphere during its winter months, The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday.
Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, including Argentina, South Africa and New Zealand, have reported an unexpected drop in influenza and other seasonal respiratory viral infections the past two months.
Experts told the newspaper the reason the number of total infections is lower than expected is because of the coronavirus measures instituted to stop the spread of the pandemic, like mask-wearing and travel restrictions.
The data could prove as good news for the U.S. and Europe as public health experts worry about what the fall and winter months will bring with the flu season in addition to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Experts fear the spread of both infections could overwhelm hospitals.
Pinning hopes on the vaccine is not the right coronavirus strategy, expert says – CNN
As cases continue to rise, Americans looking to a vaccine as the way out of the coronavirus pandemic should consider a more comprehensive approach, a leading medical expert told CNN on Wednesday.
“Pinning all our hopes on a vaccine that works immediately is not the right strategy,” Dr. William Haseltine, a former professor at Harvard University’s medical and public health schools, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.
Haseltine said a broad public health strategy is a better way to contain the spread of the virus along with the help of a vaccine and therapeutic drugs. Mandating masks will help but Haseltine said, “we need a lot more than masks to contain this epidemic that’s running through our country like a freight train.”
Haseltine recommended closing bars and other places where young people congregate at night and ban holding large meetings in the worst-hit regions. Life won’t get better until people make major changes to their behavior and public health services come forward with more resources, he said.
- There was an outbreak of “several” coronavirus cases at a hotel among staff and guests in Switzerland.
- Health officials found that only people who wore plastic face shields were infected. Those who wore a mask, or a combination, were not.
- The WHO and other authorities have advised that face shields can offer an added layer of protection, but in addition to a mask, social distancing, and handwashing, not as a substitute.
Can You Get Covid-19 Again? It’s Very Unlikely, Experts Say – New York Times
The anecdotes are alarming. A woman in Los Angeles seemed to recover from Covid-19, but weeks later took a turn for the worse and tested positive again. A New Jersey doctor claimed several patients healed from one bout only to become reinfected with the coronavirus. And another doctor said a second round of illness was a reality for some people, and was much more severe.
These recent accounts tap into people’s deepest anxieties that they are destined to succumb to Covid-19 over and over, feeling progressively sicker, and will never emerge from this nightmarish pandemic. And these stories fuel fears that we won’t be able to reach herd immunity — the ultimate destination where the virus can no longer find enough victims to pose a deadly threat.
But the anecdotes are just that — stories without evidence of reinfections, according to nearly a dozen experts who study viruses. “I haven’t heard of a case where it’s been truly unambiguously demonstrated,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Other experts were even more reassuring. While little is definitively known about the coronavirus, just seven months into the pandemic, the new virus is behaving like most others, they said, lending credence to the belief that herd immunity can be achieved with a vaccine.
French hospital tests new breathalyser machine to detect COVID-19 – Reuters
A hospital in the southern French city of Lyon is testing patients with a new machine that enables them to breathe into a tube to see whether they have COVID-19 in a matter of seconds.
The machine is entering a second trial phase after three months of use on dozens of people, among whom about 20 had the virus and the others did not. Unlike the uncomfortable standard PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests, it is not invasive and provides an immediate result.
“It’s the same principle as a classic breathalyser test,” Christian George, director of research at the National Centre of Scientific Research at the la Croix-Rousse hospital, told Reuters.
“The machine will register the molecules in the exhaled air and then detects the traces of the sickness.”
Jean-Christophe Richard, head of intensive care at the hospital, said the objective was to have the machine fully operational by the end of the year.
Virus rages on coasts as hurricane fears flare – E&E
Hurricane-prone states are experiencing some of the nation’s sharpest increases in COVID-19 infections, raising fears that a major storm will have deadly consequences if people in its path refuse to evacuate to avoid contagion.
The number of infections nationwide has more than doubled since the start of hurricane season on June 1, passing 3.8 million yesterday.
The increase has been especially dramatic in Southeastern states on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, federal data shows, leaving hospitals strained and people potentially wary of finding shelter during a hurricane or staying with friends or relatives.
A surge in COVID-19 cases also could complicate hurricane recovery by prompting the Federal Emergency Management Agency to avoid sending disaster relief workers into pandemic hot spots.
In Florida, the number of infections has soared to 360,000 from 57,000 on June 1 — the largest increase of any state in the past seven weeks.
The proof is in the sewage: hundreds of Yosemite visitors may have had coronavirus – The Guardian
Yosemite national park officials suspect that hundreds of visitors this summer may have had Covid-19 thanks to an unorthodox approach – testing sewage.
The San Francisco Chronicle reported last week that the county health department has been collecting untreated wastewater flowing from the idyllic Yosemite Valley for testing. Prior to this effort, according to the Chronicle, no one had tested positive for the virus through nasal swab testing at the park’s health clinic.
Scientists at a lab called Biobot Analytics in Cambridge, Massachusetts, have examined the sewage water to determine if there are traces of genetic material from Sars-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, in the human feces. From the traces in a given sample, they can estimate how many people passing through Yosemite might be infected with Covid-19 at that time.
U.S. sets global benchmark for COVID-19 vaccine price at around the cost of a flu shot – Reuters
The U.S. government has set a benchmark for COVID-19 vaccine pricing in a $2 billion deal announced on Wednesday with Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and German biotech BioNTech SE (22UAy.F) that will likely pressure other manufacturers to set similar prices, industry analysts told Reuters.
The deal, which is contingent on an approvable product, secures enough vaccine to inoculate 50 million Americans for about $40 a person, or about the cost of annual flu shots, and is the first to provide a direct window into likely pricing of successful COVID-19 vaccines.
It also allows for some drugmakers to profit from their efforts to protect people from the virus that has killed some 620,000 people worldwide, almost a quarter of those in the United States.
Unlike other vaccine deals signed by the government, Pfizer and BioNTech will not collect a payment until their vaccine proves to be safe and effective in a large pivotal clinical trial expected to start this month.
The U.S. and other governments have previously struck deals to support COVID-19 vaccine development, some of which included guaranteed deliveries of doses. But this is the first deal to outline a specific price for finished products.
No Hanky-Panky at HHS’s New COVID Data Hub, Contractor Says – MedPage
No one in the Trump administration has attempted to manipulate national COVID-19 data or unduly influence the operations of the new Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Coronavirus Data Hub, said the head of the company contracted to develop and maintain the database.
“Unequivocally zero,” Christopher Johnson, president of TeleTracking Technologies in Pittsburgh, said in an exclusive interview with MedPage Today. “It’s been very, very clear since the beginning that the goal has always been transparency…. A lot of the raw data is being published and it’s clearly traceable. There’s been no indication, no intent, no inkling of that, at least from my perspective. I have zero question about the integrity, ethics, or moral fiber of the people I’ve encountered.”
TeleTracking has come into the spotlight now that HHS has debuted the data hub. It replaces the CDC’s National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN), to which states and hospitals had previously been submitting COVID-19 data such as intensive care unit capacity, ventilator use, personal protective equipment (PPE) levels, and staffing shortages. But in guidance to hospitals, updated July 10 and published with little fanfare, HHS ordered hospitals to stop submitting such data to the NHSN and instead submit it either to HHS or to their state health department, which would then submit it to HHS. The data is now posted on the dashboard via the department’s new HHS Protect data system, which was developed by TeleTracking.
The coronavirus threatens auto industry recovery as cases rise and more employees miss work – CNBC
Ford Motor and Fiat Chrysler are hiring temp workers and General Motors is restructuring shifts at an assembly plant in Missouri as the auto industry battles to keep factories running amid high absenteeism rates.
So many employees are missing work that it’s causing issues on production lines at plants in states such as Michigan, Missouri and Kentucky where Covid-19 cases are surging. It’s not just employees who are sick with the coronavirus. Many employees on sick leave are perfectly healthy, but they’ve been exposed to the virus and are missing work because they have to self-quarantine for 14 days.
Another full or partial shutdown of plants would be devastating to the industry as automakers try to restock dealer lots and recoup some of their losses following a roughly eight-week shutdown from March to mid-May.
You Might Be Using Hand Sanitizer Wrong—Here’s How Much You Really Need – Pure WOW
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Hong Kong announces new coronavirus policy that could block many US travelers
Restrictions return in Romania after new cases more than tripled in the past month
WHO Sees ‘Intense Transmission’ of Virus in Relatively Few Countries
Tokyo Reports Record Number of New Coronavirus Cases
Coronavirus: South Korea falls into recession as exports slump
Coronavirus shrinks Australian economy by close to 5% of GDP
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
COVID-19 on track to become leading cause of death in LA County, public health official says
Trump Administration Announces New Resources to Protect Nursing Home Residents Against COVID-19
Study: IL-7 May Help Severe COVID-19 Patients
As COVID-19 cases rise, fewer tourists come to Las Vegas
There’s an insurmountable backlog of virus tests. A rapid test could help.
Another Bankruptcy At The Mall: Parent Company Of Ann Taylor, Loft Is Latest To Fail
As Georgia Governor Calls To Reopen Schools, Largest District Will Teach Online Only
20 New Jersey teenagers test positive for coronavirus after attending house party
The integrity of science is vital — politics cannot interfere
Fox Sports to add virtual crowds to MLB ballparks
California and Texas are among the states setting new daily records
Southwest Airlines, American Airlines say no more mask exceptions for anyone over 2 years old
AMC Theatres Delays U.S. Reopening to August
26 million adults say they can’t afford enough food amid the pandemic.
Illinois’ 1,624 New Coronavirus Cases Mark Highest Daily Rise Since Late May
Florida Sets Record for Virus-Related Deaths With 173 Reported in One Day
“We will never eradicate this virus”
The US reported more Covid-19 cases in the last two weeks than it did for all of June
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
July 2019 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Marginally Improves
18 July 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,416,000 This Week
June 2020 Coincident Indices Remain Infected By Coronavirus
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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