Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average continues to set new records – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 8 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 10 % which means the rate of acceleration is slowing – the rate of acceleration has been slowing since the end of June). U.S. Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady (today deaths were well above the median of values seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- U.S. coronavirus deaths could reach 300,000 by year-end if trends continue
- U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Could Be Cut 67 Percent With ‘Universal Mask Usage,’
- U.S. to pay Pfizer, BioNTech $1.95 billion for 100 million COVID-19 vaccine doses
- Vaccines sponsored by the US government will be free or affordable
- Rapid Decay of Antibodies in Persons with Mild Covid-19
- Quest warns flu season will further hurt coronavirus testing
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, around your children/grandchildren, bars and gyms). It is all about viral load.
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 22 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 22 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 72,048 | 3,900,000 | 208,365 | 14,890,000 | 34.6% | 26.2% |
| Deaths** | 1,160 | 142,066 | 6,220 | 616,317 | 18.6% | 23.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.6% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.32* | 138.17* | ||||
* as of 19 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Dr. Scott Gottlieb: U.S. coronavirus deaths could reach 300,000 by year-end if trends continue – CNBC
- Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Wednesday the U.S. may see over double the current deaths from the coronavirus by year-end if current trends were to persist.
- “Right now we have close to 1,000 casualties a day; so if we don’t change that trajectory, you could do the math,” he said on “Squawk Box.”
- The former FDA chief said mortality rates are falling. However, he warned that “the problem is we’re hospitalizing a lot of patients.”
How Close Is The World To A Coronavirus Vaccine? – Statista
A coronavirus vaccine candidate being developed by the University of Oxford has successfully triggered a strong immune response in trials involving 1,077 people. Scientific journal The Lancet published the hugely promising results of Phase I/II trials and they have raised hopes that a safe, effective and accessible vaccine will be attainable to help end the pandemic. The trial provoked a T cell response within 14 days of vaccination and an antibody response within 28 days.
Even ahead of the tests, there have been commitments to supply over 2 billion doses of the vaccine to the United Kingdom, the United States, Europe’s Inclusive Vaccines Alliance, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness, Gavi the Vaccine Alliance and the Serum Institute of India. Vaccines generally take years to develop but the University of Oxford have been working on their current project at an unprecedented pace. It is one of over 140 Covid-19 vaccine candidates listed by the World Health Organization, according to The Guardian and several are already in advanced testing.
The data shows that the bulk of candidates are in the pre-clinical stage of testing where the vaccine is given to animals to see if it triggers an immune response. 19 are in phase I trials where it is administered to a small group of people to determine whether it is safe. 11 are in phase II where the candidate is given to hundreds of people to evaluate further safety issues as well as dosage. The last stage is Phase III, of which three candidates are currently in, and it involves thousands of people receiving the vaccine to eliminate any final safety fears, particularly considering side effects. The Oxford University’s vaccine did not have dangerous side effects but 70 percent of participants in the trial experienced a headache or fever which scientists said can be managed by paracetamol.
You will find more infographics at Statista
California Surpasses New York for Most Confirmed Coronavirus Cases in the Nation – Time
California’s confirmed coronavirus cases have topped 409,000, surpassing New York for most in the nation, according to data from John’s Hopkins University showing Wednesday that California now has about 1,200 more cases than New York.
However, New York’s 72,302 deaths are by far the highest total in the country and nine times more than California’s tally, and its rate of confirmed infections of about 2,100 per 100,000 people is twice California’s rate.
California is by far the most populous U.S. state, with nearly 40 million people, while New York has about 19.5 million.
U.S. government data published Tuesday found that reported and confirmed coronavirus cases vastly underestimate the true number of infections, echoing results from a smaller study last month.
Trump says coronavirus will ‘get worse before it gets better’ – The Hill
“It will probably, unfortunately, get worse before it gets better,” Trump, reading from prepared remarks, told reporters at a White House briefing Tuesday evening. “Something I don’t like saying about things, but that’s the way it is.”
He went on to implore Americans to wear masks, practice physical distancing and wash their hands, and he urged young Americans to avoid bars.
“We’re asking everybody that when you are not able to socially distance, wear a mask,” Trump said. “Whether you like the mask or not, they have an impact. They’ll have an effect, and we need everything we can get.”
The remarks represented a notable shift in tone for the president. Until Tuesday, he had largely downplayed the rise in cases in states like Florida, Arizona, Texas and California, and for weeks he had declined to urge the use of face masks.
U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Could Be Cut 67 Percent With ‘Universal Mask Usage,’ Study Finds – Newsweek
With novel coronavirus cases in the U.S. approaching nearly 3.9 million, several local authorities have issued orders requiring face coverings in public in a bid to reduce the spread of infection.
While many people have been opposed to mask mandates, the widespread use of masks could potentially help significantly reduce the country’s daily case count and daily death toll, according to data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The U.S. daily death toll is currently projected to be around 815 by November 1, according to projections from the IHME. This daily death toll projected for November 1 could be reduced by over 66.4 percent if “universal masks” were applied across the country, the institute noted.
Universal mask usage refers to a 95 percent usage of masks in public in every location, with “mandates re-imposed for six weeks if daily deaths reach eight per million (0.8 per 100,000),” the institute explained.
U.S. to pay Pfizer, BioNTech $1.95 billion for 100 million COVID-19 vaccine doses – Reuters
The U.S. government will pay $1.95 billion to buy 100 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and German biotech BioNTech SE (22UAy.F) if it proves to be safe and effective, the companies said on Wednesday.
The contract is the most the United States has agreed to spend on a vaccine, although previous deals with other vaccine makers were intended to also help pay for development costs.
Pfizer and BioNTech will not receive any money from the government unless their vaccine succeeds in large clinical trials and can be successfully manufactured, according to a Pfizer spokeswoman.
Under the agreement, the government would also have an option to procure an additional 500 million doses. Pfizer said the price for the additional doses if ordered would be negotiated separately if the U.S. orders them.
The vaccine, if successful, will be made available to Americans at no cost, although their health insurance may be charged, the U.S. department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said.
Rapid Decay of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild Covid-19 – New England Journal of Medicine
More data suggested humoral immunity faded quickly in people with mild COVID-19 illness.
A recent article suggested the rapid decay of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG in early infection,1 but the rate was not described in detail. We evaluated persons who had recovered from Covid-19 and referred themselves to our institution for observational research. Written informed consent was obtained from all the participants, with approval by the institutional review board. Blood samples were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor-binding domain IgG.2 The ELISA was further modified to precisely quantify serum anti-receptor-binding domain activity in terms of equivalence to the concentration of a control anti-receptor-binding domain monoclonal IgG (CR3022, Creative Biolabs).
Infection had been confirmed by polymerase-chain-reaction assay in 30 of the 34 participants. The other 4 participants had had symptoms compatible with Covid-19 and had cohabitated with persons who were known to have Covid-19 but were not tested because of mild illness and the limited availability of testing. Most of the participants had mild illness; 2 received low-flow supplemental oxygen and leronlimab (a CCR5 antagonist), but they did not receive remdesivir. There were 20 women and 14 men. The mean age was 43 years (range, 21 to 68).
A total of 31 of the 34 participants had two serial measurements of IgG levels, and the remaining 3 participants had three serial measurements. The first measurement was obtained at a mean of 37 days after the onset of symptoms (range, 18 to 65), and the last measurement was obtained at a mean of 86 days after the onset of symptoms (range, 44 to 119).
COVID-19 temperature checks might do more harm than good – Popular Science
Fevers aren’t a reliable filter for keeping COVID spreaders out of crowded spaces.
Temperature checks are becoming a normal part of life in many places across the country, from your local gym to Disneyland, where, if your temperature is above 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, you won’t get in. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has even recommended that all businesses might check employee temperatures daily. But scientists say that this practice isn’t rooted in science—and might actually help COVID-19 keep spreading.
“There’s never been any data to show that it’s prevented any transmissions [of COVID-19],” says Eric Topol, executive vice president of Scripps Research. “The temperature check is of no value. It should be abandoned.”
The idea of using temperature checks to filter out sick people dates back to the SARS epidemic of the early 2000s. Their exact usefulness in containing SARS is still debated, but temperature was indeed a fairly reliable indicator of a SARS infection, with at least 86 percent of those infected showing a fever, reports Helen Branswell for Stat.
BD (Becton, Dickinson and Company) (NYSE: BDX), a leading global medical technology company, today announced additional pandemic orders for needles and syringes from the United States and Canada totaling 177 million injection devices.
The new U.S. order for 140 million injection devices brings total U.S. orders from BD to 190 million devices. The new Canadian order for 37 million brings total Canadian orders from BD to 75 million devices. Across the world, BD has received total orders of 330 million needles and syringes from the U.S., Canada and the United Kingdom. A majority of these orders will be delivered by the end of December 2020 in anticipation of a vaccine being approved late this year or early 2021. BD continues to be in discussions with governments around the world on the need to place orders immediately for early 2021 delivery.
COVID-19 Infections Underestimated From Sea to Shining Sea – MedPage
Large serosurvey [A sero-survey is where doctors test the blood of a section of the general population to check the presence of anti-bodies to any disease] reinforces two ideas: most infections are asymptomatic, and herd immunity remains a distant goal.
Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection varied across the country in the early spring, ranging from an estimated 1% in San Francisco to almost 7% in New York City, CDC researchers found in an ongoing study.
A serosurvey of around 16,000 people in 10 diverse sites across the U.S. estimated a range of 6 to 24 times more infections than reported cases of COVID-19 based on antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, indicating asymptomatic spread may have played a significant role in transmission, reported Fiona Havers, MD, of the CDC, and colleagues.
Indeed, in 7 of these 10 sites, researchers estimated there were more than 10 times as many infections as reported cases, the authors wrote in JAMA Internal Medicine. The CDC has also created an interactive, public dashboard with data from the 10 sites, which the agency said would be regularly updated.
An accompanying editorial in JAMA by Tyler Brown, MD, and Rochelle Walensky, MD, both of Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, characterized this study as “a substantial step forward” and an “important reference point” for serosurveys to come. Previous serologic studies have been “narrow in scope, focused on specific geographic catchment areas or local cohorts captured via unrestricted, ‘walk-up’ enrollment,” they said.
In contrast, the new CDC analysis drew on blood samples collected for routine healthcare purposes such as cholesterol screenings and inpatient monitoring.
It ‘Looks Very Scary For Renters’ As Federal Eviction Relief Expiration Nears – NPR
Interest rates just crossed a historic threshold. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan dropped below 3% last week for the first time since records began in 1971.
“The interest rates,” Talpaz says, “once I started looking into things, they did motivate us.” She recently lived in California where she says she couldn’t afford to buy a home. But now in Oberlin, Ohio, with these rates, she says her payment will be very affordable. “It’ll be lower than I currently pay in rent.”
Fauci on coronavirus: ‘I don’t really see us eradicating it’ – The Hill
Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said Wednesday he doesn’t think COVID-19 will ever be fully eradicated, but noted it can be controlled.
“I don’t see this disappearing the way SARS 1 did,” Fauci said during a livestreamed event hosted by the TB Alliance, a nonprofit focused on finding better tuberculosis treatments.
The SARS outbreak that started in 2003 lasted several months and mostly affected Asian countries before eventually vanishing. But in the process the disease sickened more than 8,000 people in 29 countries and claimed 774 lives.
Because COVID-19 is more contagious, it has had a far greater impact, with more than 15 million cases worldwide, including 618,000 deaths.
“It is so efficient in its ability to transmit from human to human that I think we ultimately will get control of it. I don’t really see us eradicating it,” Fauci said.
COVID-19 will spread to schools in areas where there is community transmission, WHO official says – CNN
COVID-19 will spread to schools if there is widespread transmission of the virus happening within a community, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization’s Health Emergencies Programme, said on Wednesday.
Ryan said that schools are “a microcosm of our society, of our community” and “a subset of people from our community.”
“So if we have spread of the virus in our community and that spread is intense and is widespread, then that disease will spread to the school environment,” he explained while during a social media Q&A.
“The disease may pass through children. It may find the child then that’s less immune or has some compromise and can cause a more severe infection. Or it can also be brought to vulnerable grandparents or others. So, the way I would see it is that when you have intense transmission at community level, then we have to be careful about schools,” Ryan added.
He also said school environments are very important to communities, as they act not only as a place where children receive an education, but also as a source of nutrition and safety “in areas that are not necessarily as safe socially for kids.”
Quest warns flu season will further hurt coronavirus testing – Axios
Coronavirus testing capacity could crumble under the combined demand of the pandemic and the fall flu season, Quest’s executive vice president James Davis told the Financial Times.
Why it matters: Turnaround times for coronavirus tests are already at roughly a week. Labs only have the capacity to focus on people who are symptomatic, and that will get worse with the cold and the flu, Davis said.
What they’re saying:
- “We would double our capacity tomorrow . . . but it’s not the labs that are the bottleneck. [It] is our ability to get physical machines and, more importantly, our ability to feed those machines with chemical reagents,” Davis said, adding “other solutions need to be found” in addition to nasal swab testing.
- Quest rival LabCorp also warned Tuesday virus is spreading faster than the company can handle: “We need all states to ensure we’re doing everything we can to better control the virus. If we can do that, then we’ll be able to have the tests that we need,” LabCorp CEO Adam Schechter told CNBC.
Vaccines sponsored by the US government will be free or affordable – The Business Standard
US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar called the US government’s agreement with Pfizer “historic” on CNBC Wednesday morning.
“This Pfizer one’s really historic,” Azar said, reports the CNN.
“It is a contract, an advance purchase contract, where we can acquire 100 million doses of this vaccine as early as December of 2019, of 2020 and have the option to buy an additional 500 million doses.”
Azar said that clinical data from the phase 1 trial of the Pfizer vaccine shows that it produces what is looked for in the early stages of a vaccine: “neutralizing antibodies [at] levels equal to or better than what we see in recovered Covid patients and their convalescent plasma.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Coronavirus study reveals nearly one in four people in India’s capital may have contracted the virus
Japan Reports 633 New Coronavirus Cases, Nationwide Toll Soars To 26,767
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
COVID-19 Vaccines May Require Two Doses, House Members Told
One-Third Of U.S. Museums May Not Survive The Year, Survey Finds
Coronavirus Infections Far Higher Than Confirmed But Most Americans Still Not Exposed
It ‘Looks Very Scary For Renters’ As Federal Eviction Relief Expiration Nears
FEMA head: ‘We have a ways to go’ on having enough PPE
Baltimore to require face masks at all times, roll back indoor dining
Testing delays once again hamper COVID-19 response
In the U.S., the Northeast now stands out in virus control.
United Airlines will require passengers to wear masks in its lounges and baggage claim areas.
Harvard says foreign freshmen can’t come to campus.
Kansas Board of Ed split, Gov. Kelly’s Labor Day order for schools fails
Gov. Mike DeWine issues order mandating all Ohio counties wear masks
MTA calls for sweeping cuts, details $16 billion deficit through 2024
Illinois Reports Nearly 1,600 New Coronavirus Cases, Highest Daily Total for July
Indoor dining suspended, mask required over age of 2 in Baltimore City
Lawmakers perplexed by billions in unspent Covid-19 testing money
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Trucking Industry Growth Improved In June 2020 But Still In Contraction Year-over-Year
Infographic Of The Day: The Real Cost Of The Loneliness Epidemic
Protracted G7 Contraction – Or Multiyear Global Depression
COVID19 Update 20 July 2020: USA Vs EU27
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Masks do work.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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