Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average continues to set new records – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 23 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 20 %). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (today deaths continue near the upper end of the range seen in the last few weeks). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- The daily new cases did not set a new record today – but remained very elevated.
- This city is giving residents $500 per month.
- Dr. Fauci is not 100 percent right
- Cell phone data show Americans hit the road over July 4 [will this result in a new case surge same as Memorial Day?>
- Is Vitamin D Linked to Severe COVID-19 Cases?
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should have begun to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have begun spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms. Also, their is reason to believe that duplicate positive tests on a person will result in multiple new cases.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 12 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 12 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 63,051 | 3,250,000 | 222,967 | 12,700,000 | 28.3% | 25.6% |
| Deaths** | 717 | 134,814 | 4,926 | 564,924 | 14.6% | 23.9% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.1% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 4.4% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.49* | 117.58* | ||||
* as of 10 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
If anyone thinks the coronavirus outbreak is subsiding, the new coronavirus cases per week graph below shows a continuing growth.
But weekly deaths this week were higher than last week – but easily within the ranges seen in the last 4 weeks.
It is still too early to confirm, but it appears that the surge in new cases is not manifesting in a surge in deaths. I am cautiously optimistic.
As Sunday’s are a low news day, you can catch up on coronavirus news this week by reading two posts published today:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Covid-19 could kill more people through hunger than the virus itself, warns Oxfam – The Telegraph
More people will die of hunger caused by the pandemic than of coronavirus this year, according to a report from Oxfam.
An estimated 122 million of the world’s poorest people could be plunged deeper into hunger and poverty, equating to 12,000 extra deaths a day, the charity said. The global mortality rate for Covid-19 reached a peak at 10,000 deaths per day in April.
It comes as the after effects of the pandemic and lockdowns have led to mass unemployment, plummeting incomes, disruption to food production and declining humanitarian aid.
Last year, 821 million people suffered from food insecurity of which 149 million faced crisis level hunger or worse. But now the dramatic slowdown of the economy and severe restrictions on movement has led to mass unemployment.
The report revealed the world’s 10 worst hunger ‘hotspots’, including Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and South Sudan. Middle-income countries such as India, South Africa and Brazil are also experiencing rapidly rising levels of hunger with millions being tipped over the edge.
This city is giving residents $500 per month. Some hope it can become a national plan – CNBC
- Stockton, California, recently extended its universal basic income experiment, which gives some residents $500 per month, to help them cope with the COVID-19 crisis.
- Now, a coalition of 11 mayors, including Stockton’s, are taking a look at implementing similar programs.
- The experiments bring to life a concept written about by Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., and come at a time when Congress faces big questions about how to best support Americans families.
US testing official: ‘Dr. Fauci is not 100 percent right’ – The Hill
The U.S.’s top coronavirus testing official, Adm. Brett Giroir, said Sunday that infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci is “not 100 percent right” because he looks at the coronavirus pandemic from “a very narrow public health point of view.”
Chuck Todd of NBC’s “Meet the Press” asked the White House testing czar about a Washington Post report that cited an official saying Fauci has argued for parts of the country with surges to shut down without buy-in from the rest of the White House task force.
“I respect Dr. Fauci a lot, but Dr. Fauci is not 100 percent right, and he also doesn’t necessarily — he admits that — have the whole national interest in mind,” Giroir said. “He looks at it from a very narrow public health point of view.”
A plasma shot could prevent coronavirus. But feds and makers won’t act, scientists say – Yahoo
Scientists have devised a way to use the antibody-rich blood plasma of COVID-19 survivors for an upper-arm injection that they say could inoculate people against the virus for months.
Using technology that’s been proven effective in preventing other diseases such as hepatitis A, the injections would be administered to high-risk healthcare workers, nursing home patients, or even at public drive-through sites — potentially protecting millions of lives, the doctors and other experts say.
The two scientists who spearheaded the proposal — an 83-year-old shingles researcher and his counterpart, an HIV gene therapy expert — have garnered widespread support from leading blood and immunology specialists, including those at the center of the nation’s COVID-19 plasma research.
But the idea exists only on paper. Federal officials have twice rejected requests to discuss the proposal, and pharmaceutical companies — even acknowledging the likely efficacy of the plan — have declined to design or manufacture the shots, according to a Times investigation. The lack of interest in launching development of immunity shots comes amid heightened scrutiny of the federal government’s sluggish pandemic response.
[editor’s note: I suspect that to gear up for this solution – and no one knows how long the immunity would last – would detract from other solutions which would create a longer immunity. My understanding is that even syringes are in short supply as well as laboratory/ production ability. ]
Coronavirus: The Under-40s Dilemma – ZeroHedge
Here is the punchline: for Covid-19, the elderly have been overwhelmingly the worst hit. For the Spanish flu of 1918, the young working-age population were severely affected too. In fact, the death rate from pneumonia and influenza that year among 25-34 year olds in the United States was more than 50% higher than that for 65-74 year olds, “a remarkable difference to Covid-19.”
Now, in a follow up observation from Reid [Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid}, the DB credit strategist points out another coronavirus peculiarity: the fact that the virus leads to virtually no fatalities of people below 45.
As Reid writes, the UK has been one of the worst-hit countries in the world when it comes to fatalities per head from Covid-19. The country has seen around 60,000 excess deaths relative to the previous 5-year average. But given the scale of these numbers, Reid points out a “remarkable fact” that among those aged under around 40, deaths have been roughly the same as for the previous 5-year baseline (using England and Wales data). This backs up previous observations on how age-discriminant Covid-19 has been.
… As Reid provocatively puts it, “younger people will be suffering most from the economic impact of Covid-19 for many years to come, we wonder how history will judge the global response.” That said, since the economic crisis resulting from Covid-19 has also unleashed full-blown helicopter money as well as the biggest round of corporate bailouts of insolvent and zombie companies in history, we are confident that the tsunami of global moral hazard – which will leave tens of millions of young workers without a job – will allow central bankers to sleep soundly at night.
Is Vitamin D Linked to Severe COVID-19 Cases? – EcoWatch
A research study carried out at the University of Hohenheim has now established a link between vitamin D deficiency, certain previous diseases, and severe cases of COVID-19.
According to the study, “there is a lot of evidence that several non-communicable diseases (high blood pressure, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome) are associated with low vitamin D plasma levels. These comorbidities, together with the often accompanying vitamin D deficiency, increase the risk of severe COVID-19 events.”
… “Imagine two groups of 80-year-olds. One group is spry, active and does sports. If you compare them with another group living in nursing homes, the difference in vitamin D levels will be dramatic. Life expectancy would also be extremely different.”
But to try to explain the difference in fitness by vitamin D status alone is far too simplistic. “Vitamin D levels are a good measure of how sick someone is. But not more,” says Fassnacht.
According to Fassnacht, none of the intervention studies carried out to date — that specifically examined the effect of vitamin D on various diseases — has been able to confirm the previous association and laboratory studies or the presumed positive effect of vitamin D.
Coronavirus testing czar: US is in ‘much better place than we were in April’ – The Hill
Adm. Brett Giroir, the White House’s coronavirus testing czar, said Sunday that the U.S. is in a “much better place than we were in April” in regards to the coronavirus pandemic, though the rise in cases is concerning.
“We have surge teams, [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] teams, response teams all going to places. We’re in a much better place for our [personal protective equipment] across the board. We have new treatments,” Giroir said on ABC’s “This Week.” “So, look, we are all very concerned about the rise in cases, no doubt about that. And that’s why we’re meeting regularly. We’re surging in assistance. But we are in a much better place.”
Testing capacity is also up, Giroir said.
“We have enough right now to identify where the hot spots are. But once you identify it, you’ve got to do something. And the do something are the measures we just talked about: wear a face mask, physically distance, wash your hands, et cetera,” he said.
Giroir, an assistant secretary for the Department of Health and Human Services, said he expected both hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 to increase in the coming weeks, but added that the medical system has better tools now for dealing with coronavirus than it did several months ago.
Cell phone data show Americans hit the road over July 4, even as coronavirus surged – CNN
After Memorial Day, as the United States began to reopen, coronavirus cases began to rise. The number of hospitalizations had risen in at least a dozen states some two weeks after the holiday weekend.
For the Fourth of July weekend, a new analysis of cell phone data suggests even more people hit the road among 10 coronavirus hotspots, despite warnings from health experts.
Mobility, experts say, is one driver of transmission of the novel coronavirus.
The analysis comes from data shared with CNN by Cuebiq, one of the private companies that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention uses to track general movement in the United States. Cuebiq gets its data when people download apps on their phones and opt into anonymous location data tracking. The company’s full data set includes 15 million phones nationwide.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Nicola Sturgeon: I will not shy away from imposing quarantine on English visitors to Scotland
72 contract COVID-19 after outbreak on Herefordshire farm
Thousands protest in Israel over handling of economy
Three generations of Bollywood Bachchan family infected
India’s third-most populous city will lock down for a week on Tuesday night
Japanese home-goods chain Muji in U.S. files for bankruptcy, citing COVID-19 pandemic
Victoria records 273 new coronavirus cases; Crossroads Hotel patrons ‘required’ to self-isolate
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Coronavirus Outbreak Hits Mississippi Legislature
Trump Wears Mask In Public For First Time During Walter Reed Visit
Masks And Mouse Ears: Disney World Reopens As Coronavirus Cases Climb In Florida
A Phoenix Nonprofit Opens Up A Hotel To Homeless Coronavirus Patients
Florida reports more than 15,000 new cases, a daily record for the U.S.
Surgeon general says U.S. can reverse coronavirus surge in a few weeks ‘if everyone does their part’
Phoenix mayor urges governor to issue statewide mask order, close some businesses
A Texas beach city went from apparent success to major outbreak in just a few weeks.
Officials monitoring uptick in cases in upstate New York after out-of-state travel
Data breakthrough: nearly 7,000 Floridians hospitalized with COVID-19, 112 in Brevard
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
30% Of Companies Cut Pay In Response To COVID-19
The COVID-19 Pandemic Threatens To Dry Up A Vital Source Of Income For Poor And Fragile Countries
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 11July 2020
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 11July 2020
How Talking About The Coronavirus As An Enemy Combatant Can Backfire
Restrictions Are Back: Consumer Loses Steam
The Terrible, Horrible, No Good Q2 Earnings Season
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – and the accuracy of the tests has been improving. However, if one loses immunity – the coronavirus testing value is reduced.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down – and it seems air conditioning contributes to its spread.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths? So far only one drug (remdesivir) is approved for treatment.
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of 4 % [the 4% is the average of overall statistics – however in the last few months it has been hovering around 1.0%] – which makes it between 10 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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