Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average today again set a new record – and this rolling average in the U.S. new cases are now 19 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 20 % so the rate of acceleration is slowing). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (although today deaths continue near the upper end of the range). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- China suspends imports from 23 meat producers in US, Brazil, Germany and UK over coronavirus fears
- Chinese officials warn of new ‘unknown pneumonia’ that is deadlier than coronavirus
- Looming evictions may soon make 28 million homeless in U.S.
- Asymptotic transmission “clearly complicates” contact tracing and isolation
- Gilead analysis shows remdesivir reduced coronavirus death risk
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should begin to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have begun spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms. Also, their is reason to believe that duplicate positive tests on a person will result in multiple new cases.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 10 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png​
Coronavirus Statistics For 10 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 63,004 | 3,120,000 | 227,756 | 12,250,000 | 27.7% | 25.5% |
| Deaths** | 982 | 133,291 | 5,440 | 554,721 | 18.1% | 24.0% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.00* | 113.09* | ||||
* as of 08 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
The following testing chart showing whether states are testing enough is from CNN:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Scientists focus on how immune system T cells fight coronavirus in absence of antibodies – Yahoo
As scientists question whether the presence, or absence, of antibodies to the novel coronavirus can reliably determine immunity, some are looking to a different component of the immune system, known as T cells, for their role in protecting people in the pandemic.
Recent studies show that some recovered patients who tested negative for coronavirus antibodies did develop T cells in response to their COVID-19 infection. While the studies are small and have yet to be reviewed by outside experts, some scientists now say that people who experience a mild illness, or no symptoms at all, from the new coronavirus, may be eliminating the infection through this T cell response.
The findings add to the evidence that an effective COVID-19 vaccine will need to prompt T cells to work in addition to producing antibodies, and may have implications for several treatments in development. They may also shed light on how immunity to new exposure to infection could work.
“There is mounting evidence that people exposed to the virus have a transient (short-lived) antibody response, or have a T cell response in spite of a minor or absent antibody response,” Dr Alessandro Sette, professor and member of the La Jolla Institute’s Infectious Disease and Vaccine Center in California, told Reuters.
BioNTech CEO Believes COVID-19 Vaccine Could be Ready for Approval by December – BioSpace
BioNTech Chief Executive Officer Ugur Sahin predicts the company’s vaccine for COVID-19, which is it co-developing with Pfizer, could be ready for regulatory approval by the end of the year, with hundreds of millions of doses available for immediate distribution.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Sahin talked about the progress the companies have made on their vaccine candidate and said their manufacturing capabilities could provide about one billion doses of the preventative drug by the end of 2021. The vaccine candidate is expected to initiate Phase III studies by the end of this month with about 30,000 patients. If all goes well, Sahin said Germany-based BioNTech and Pfizer could seek regulatory approval from global health authorities by the end of the year. If the vaccine is approved, Sahin said mass vaccinations could begin in the United States, Europe and elsewhere.
Sahin’s comments to the Journal came about a week after the two companies released preliminary data from the most advanced of four of its vaccine candidates against SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19. The data from research on BNT1621b1, which encodes an optimized SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) antigen, was positive. As BioSpace reported earlier this month, neutralizing antibodies were observed at 1.8- to 2.7-times the level of those found in patients who recovered from COVID-19. While it’s currently unknown if those higher levels will provide an immunity against the virus, the study beginning this month will attempt to prove that people who are dosed with the vaccine are at least 50% less likely to become infected. The data has been submitted to a journal for publication but has yet to be peer-reviewed.
1 In 150 Americans Probably Have Coronavirus ‘Right Now,’ Says Ex-FDA Chief – Forbes
As the U.S. already posts record numbers for daily confirmed cases of Covid-19, former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb projects that the actual number of infections are actually far higher, telling CNBC Friday that as many as one in 150 people in the United States likely “have the infection right now.”
The surge of coronavirus cases in the U.S. has resulted in record numbers of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases, with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reporting a new high of 64,771 new confirmed cases on July 9.
The CDC and MIT researchers have projected that the number of actual coronavirus infections is in actuality ten to 11.8 times higher than the number of confirmed cases, leading Gottlieb to estimate Friday that “we must have well over 700,000 actual infections a day.”
“The prevalence of actual infection in the country right now must be pretty high, it must be in the order of like one in 150, one in 175 people have the infection right now,” Gottlieb said, noting that when there were only 20,000 confirmed cases a day, “the conventional wisdom was the prevalence was one in 200 people.”
WHO says it’s ‘very unlikely’ countries can eradicate the coronavirus right now – CNBC
World Health Organization officials said Friday that it’s “very unlikely” countries across the globe can eradicate the coronavirus and may need to reinstate some lockdown measure as clusters of cases quickly become outbreaks that spread like “a forest fire.”
While some countries and island states have been effective in controlling the spread of the coronavirus, there’s “always the risk” the disease can spread quickly when its imported from other countries, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s health emergencies program, said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters Friday.
“In our current situation, it is very unlikely that we can eradicate or eliminate this virus,” Ryan said. “We’ve seen countries that have managed to get to zero or almost zero re-import virus from outside, so there’s always a risk.”
WHO has warned that the “once-in-a-century pandemic” has continued to accelerate and is not under control across most of the world. The organization is particularly concerned about “super-spreading events,” which are large gatherings of people where the virus can transmit rapidly, Ryan said.
“It’s very analogous to a forest fire,” Ryan said. “A small fire is hard to see but easy to put out. A large fire is easy to see but very difficult to put out.”
China suspends imports from 23 meat producers in US, Brazil, Germany and UK over coronavirus fears – CNN
China on Friday announced that it has suspended imports from 23 overseas meat companies in countries that include the United States, Brazil, Germany, and the United Kingdom due to coronavirus outbreaks at production facilities.
“In response to the recent outbreaks of cluster infections in meat and aquatic product companies in some countries, we have taken measures to suspend imports of their products,” said Bi Kexin, director of the Import and Export Food Safety Bureau at China’s General Administration of Customs.
“As you may have noticed, we have suspended imports from 23 meat producers, including Toennies in Germany, Tyson in the United States, Agra in Brazil, and Tulip in the UK,” added Bi.
Gilead analysis shows remdesivir reduced coronavirus death risk, more studies needed – Reuters
Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O) said on Friday an analysis showed its antiviral remdesivir helped reduce the risk of death in severely ill COVID-19 patients, but cautioned that rigorous clinical trials were needed to confirm the benefit.
Remdesivir has been at the forefront of the global battle against COVID-19 after the intravenously administered medicine helped shorten hospital recovery times, according to data in April from a separate U.S. government trial. That study showed a trend toward better survival for remdesivir but the difference was not statistically significant.
In the latest analysis, Gilead said it analyzed data from 312 patients treated in its late-stage study and a separate real-world retrospective cohort of 818 patients with similar characteristics and disease severity.
Gilead’s late-stage study evaluated the safety and efficacy of five-day and 10-day dosing durations of remdesivir in hospitalized patients. The study did not have a placebo comparison.
The death toll is edging up in several states, possibly ending months of declining national death totals. – New York Times
The U.S.’s daily number of deaths from the coronavirus has risen recently in some of the nation’s most populous states, signaling a possible end to months of declining death totals nationally.
In Texas, officials announced 119 deaths on Wednesday, surpassing a daily record for deaths in the pandemic that the state had set only a day earlier. In Arizona, more than 200 deaths have been announced already this week, and the daily virus death toll in the state reached higher than ever. Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, South Dakota and Tennessee also set single-day death records this week.
The seven-day death average in the United States reached 608 on Thursday, up from 471 earlier in July, but still a fraction of the more than 2,200 deaths the country averaged each day in mid-April, when the situation in the Northeast was at its worst.
Health experts cautioned that it was too early to predict a continuing trend from only a few days of data. But the rising pace of deaths in the Sunbelt followed weeks of mounting cases in the region and suggested an end to the country’s nearly three-month period of declines in daily counts of virus deaths.
Kazakhstan: Chinese officials warn of new ‘unknown pneumonia’ that is deadlier than coronavirus – CNN
A new “unknown pneumonia” that is potentially deadlier than the novel coronavirus has reportedly killed more than 1,700 people this year in the Central Asian country of Kazakhstan, according to a warning issued by Chinese officials Thursday.
“Kazakhstani Health Department and other agencies are conducting comparative research and have not defined the nature of the pneumonia virus,” said the Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan in a statement to its citizens there.
New cases of the unidentified pneumonia have been increasing significantly since mid-June across the country, said the embassy, adding that in some places, authorities are reporting hundreds of new cases a day.
The rise has so far been concentrated in the regions of Atyrau, Aktobe and Shymkent, which together have almost 500 new cases and more than 30 critically ill patients, said the embassy statement, citing local media.
Authorities in Kazakhstan have denied a report published by Chinese officials that the country is experiencing an outbreak of “unknown pneumonia” potentially deadlier than the novel coronavirus.
On Thursday, the Chinese Embassy in Kazakhstan issued a warning to citizens living in the Central Asian country that the pneumonia had killed more than 1,700 people.
“Kazakhstani Health Department and other agencies are conducting comparative research and have not defined the nature of the pneumonia virus,” the statement said.
New cases of the unidentified pneumonia have been increasing significantly since mid-June across the country, said the embassy, adding that in some places, authorities are reporting hundreds of new cases a day.
In a statement on Friday, the Kazakhstan health ministry acknowledged the presence of “viral pneumonias of unspecified etiology,” but denied that the outbreak was new or unknown.
Looming evictions may soon make 28 million homeless in U.S., expert says – CNBC
- The coronavirus pandemic could result in some 28 million Americans being evicted, one expert said.
- By comparison, 10 million people lost their homes in the Great Recession.
[editor’s note: the facts on evictions are hard to summarize – this article deserves a complete read]
A war of words between Trump and Fauci is playing out through interviews with the news media. – New York Times
President Trump and Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, are continuing to spar over the government’s response to the coronavirus, arguments playing out in media appearances over the past week.
One of the points of contention is the seriousness of the disease caused by the virus, which has been spreading across the country at its fastest pace yet. Mr. Trump has argued that it is mostly harmless.
“There were no tests for a new virus, but now we have tested over 40 million people,” Mr. Trump said in a speech on July 4. “But by so doing, we show cases, 99 percent of which are totally harmless.”
In an interview with The Financial Times that was published Friday, Dr. Fauci said he was not sure of the source of the data the president was referencing.
The union battle versus Trump administration over bringing workers back, safely – CNBC
- Occupational health is a top issue for businesses reopening and bringing workers back.
- The Trump administration has never filled the top job at the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.
- Only one employer has been cited for workplace violations related to Covid-19.
- Unions, including the AFL-CIO, criticize the Department of Labor, saying emergency rules for the pandemic are needed.
Asymptotic transmission “clearly complicates” contact tracing and isolation, Fauci says – COVID-19 News
Dr. Anthony Fauci said when it comes to coronavirus and its clinical manifestations, “We learn more about literally on a daily and weekly basis.”
“Importantly – and this is evolved over the months, because it was not clear early on, and it’s changed the way we think about transmission and control – in that about 40% to 45% of individuals infected are asymptomatic,” Fauci said of coronavirus while speaking at the AIDS 2020 Conference.
Fauci also said that transmission from people who are either asymptomatic or not yet showing symptoms of the virus ” clearly complicates” attempts to contact trace and isolate.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
‘Please Scream Inside Your Heart,’ Japanese Amusement Park Tells Thrill-Seekers
Italy likely to extend state of emergency due to coronavirus crisis, PM says
Hong Kong shuts schools as new coronavirus cases hit city
Record spike of over 228,000 global cases in 24 hours
Tokyo coronavirus cases hit record daily high of 224
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
More Than 20 U.S. States Now Require Face Masks In Public
At Least 82 Coronavirus Cases Linked To Missouri Sleepaway Camp
A Texas Mayor Implores Residents To ‘Only Go Out If You Have To’ As Virus Cases Spike
Bolivian President Tests Positive For Coronavirus
The Los Angeles teachers union calls to keep campuses closed in the fall.
Cases in the U.S. military have more than doubled in one month.
‘Last call’ order bans alcohol sales at SC restaurants, bars after 11 p.m.
As California tops 300,000 cases, delays, confusion hamper efforts to expand coronavirus testing
Florida Governor DeSantis says risk to school children ‘very low’
West Virginia has highest rate of transmission of Covid-19 in the country, state official says
Louisiana reports most positive cases in a single day since pandemic began
Arizona has fewer than 1,000 inpatient hospital beds available
Pathologist found blood clots in ‘almost every organ’ during autopsies on Covid-19 patients
Study suggests fetal coronavirus infection is possible
Georgia to reactivate makeshift hospital at Atlanta convention center
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
03 July 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues But Continues In Contraction
June 2020 Producer Price Final Demand Year-over-Year Growth Remains In Contraction
Rail Week Ending 04 June 2020 – Some Improvement
COVID-19 Exposes Why The Postal Service Needs To Get Back Into The Banking Business
The Survival Of Millions Of Small Businesses Is Threatened
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
