Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and Global new cases 7-day rolling average today again set a new record – and this rolling average of U.S. new cases are now 26 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 25 %). Death rates due to coronavirus have been holding relatively steady but some are saying we will see a spike in deaths soon (although today deaths were near the upper end of the range). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- There have been 3,000,000 cases of coronavirus in the U.S.
- US admirals in South China Sea: Everyone wears a mask
- Russia digs trench around Siberian village to enforce COVID quarantine
- If states were countries – Arizona is #1, Bahrain is #4
- ‘Testing alone is almost never the answer’
Repeating from past posts, deaths resulting from the coronavirus are relatively low even whilst we hit record highs in new cases. There are two possibilities put forth by the experts:
- Deaths lag new cases by 3 to 5 weeks, This would mean we should begin to see a spike in deaths beginning 11 July 2020. [note: US Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams said on 04 July 2020 “We know deaths lag at least two weeks and can lag even more.” If this is true – deaths should have began spiking beginning on 03 July]
- The current form of the coronavirus may be easier to transmit but not as deadly. This combined with better procedures in dealing with the more severe cases could result in little noticeable spike in deaths. It also should be realized that the U.S. now has one of the highest testing rates in the world which means a higher rate of identification of those who contracted COVID-19 but are not showing symptoms.
My continuing advice is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk in all situations. In addition, certain activities are believed to carry higher risk – like being inside in air conditioning and removing your mask (such as restaurants, bars and gyms).
The daily number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 08 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png​
Coronavirus Statistics For 07 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 57,473 | 3,000,000 | 206,641 | 11,800,000 | 27.8% | 25.4% |
| Deaths** | 1,174 | 131,480 | 6,087 | 543,902 | 19.3% | 24.2% |
| Mortality Rate | 0.7% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 4.6% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.57* | 109.44* | ||||
* as of 06 July 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
The following is the White House coronavirus task force briefing this morning.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
US admirals in South China Sea: Everyone wears a mask – CNN
Two US Navy admirals in charge of a rare South China Sea exercise say “extraordinary” coronavirus measures taken by the service, including requiring all sailors to wear face masks, have left their aircraft carrier strike groups in a high state of readiness in one of the most tense maritime environments in the world.
The Navy’s response to the pandemic comes after one of its Pacific-based carriers, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, was crippled for weeks earlier this year by an outbreak that infected hundreds of its crew.
“We’ve taken extraordinary measures to protect our sailors from Covid, but that said it remains a real threat and requires constant vigilance,” Rear Adm. George Wikoff, commander of Carrier Strike Group 5, led by the USS Ronald Reagan, said Wednesday in a phone call about the South China Sea deployment.
“The entire team underway, everyone on board, is required to wear a mask,” Wikoff said.
32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments – CNBC
As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, almost one-third of U.S. households, 32%, have not made their full housing payments for July yet, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform.
About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage.
That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May. Renters, low-income and younger households were most likely to miss their payments, Apartment List found.
In April, May and June, the majority of missed housing payments were made by the end of month, Apartment List reports. Almost 90% of households had paid some or all of their rent or mortgage payment by the end of June. But with late fees tacked on, those households may be more likely to miss their next housing bill, perpetuating a vicious cycle.
“Delayed payments in one month are a strong predictor for missed payments in the next,” Apartment List says. While 83% of households who paid their May housing in full and on-time also did so
Scientists highlight potential link between COVID-19 and brain damage – The Hill
Scientists are calling attention to a potential link between COVID-19 and brain damage after a study released Wednesday found more evidence to suggest that the virus can cause neurological issues.
Researchers at the University College London (UCL) conducted the study involving 43 patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 infections who developed neurological symptoms, like inflammation, psychosis and delirium. The study was published in the journal Brain.
The scientists identified 10 cases of temporary brain dysfunction with delirium, 12 cases of brain inflammation, eight cases of strokes and eight patients with nerve damage. Most of those with inflammation were diagnosed with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM), a rare disease that the researchers said has increased in prevalence during the pandemic.
Before the pandemic, the scientists said they would usually see about one adult patient with ADEM per month. But during the study, they saw at least one a week, which they said was a “concerning increase.”
Russia digs trench around Siberian village to enforce COVID quarantine – Reuters
Russian authorities have dug a trench around a remote Siberian village to enforce a quarantine, after dozens of residents contracted the coronavirus, which local officials believe was spread at a traditional shaman ritual.
The village of Shuluta, located some 30 kilometres south east of Lake Baikal in Siberia’s Buryatia region, has 37 confirmed cases of the virus among its 390 residents.
Birx lays out “encouraging” trends for coronavirus in Arizona, Texas and Florida – CNN
White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx said Wednesday that the Trump administration is seeing some “encouraging” trends in Arizona, Texas and Florida – three of the hotspot states seeing a surge of coronavirus cases across the sunbelt.
“The seven-day average (of coronavirus cases in Arizona) is showing some flattening and I find that encouraging. Also, equally encouraging at this point, because we know that the test positivity rate is the first thing to increase and we’re hoping that it heralds a stability in Arizona of at least reaching a plateau in their curve,” Birx said.
Birx also referenced a stabilizing of emergency room visits for Covid-19-like symptoms in Arizona, calling it “an early indicator and we find that encouraging.”
Similarly, in Florida, Birx said, they are starting to see “early suggestions of decreasing emergency room visits for the symptoms of Covid and some stability starting in that (test positivity rate) hoping that heralds a stability in the number of daily reported cases.”
“Crunch Time” Arrives And… Was Everyone Wrong About The Coronavirus? – ZeroHedge
One week ago, when looking at the growing divergence between the number of new coronavirus cases in the US and shrinking number of fatalities, we referred to Nordea’s strategist Andreas Steno Larsen, who observed that “we are entering “crunch time” on fatalities since they should start to rise in early July given the lead/lag structure versus new cases.”
As Larsen further predicted, “if fatalities don’t spike early in July, then people will conclude that it’s probably spreading amongst a part of the population that is not as sensitive, or that it is a resulted of increased testing or that the virus has become less deadly as we move into the summer months. Governors in Texas, California and Florida seem to have concluded that the below correlation holds, but the jury is still out.”
His conclusion was that “the next 6-10 days will be crucial.”
Well, one week later, we decided to follow up on the current status and… there is still no spike in fatalities at either the federal level…
[editor’s note: I think this post is one week early – but I do think that the points made in the post are on point. This post deserves a full read]
Apple Maps driving activity is slowing again in warning sign for the economy – CNBC
- As coronavirus cases surge across the United States, Apple Maps data shows a slowdown in requests for driving directions, a potential warning sign as the country works to restart the economy amid the pandemic.
- The four states that are the leaders in average daily new reported cases over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins University data – Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona – have each seen a recent decline in driving directions requests.
Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market [written by Robert J. Shiller] – Project Syndicate
The worse economic fundamentals and forecasts become, the more mysterious stock-market outcomes in the US appear. At a time when genuine news suggests that equity prices should be tanking, not hitting record highs, explanations based on crowd psychology, the virality of ideas, and the dynamics of narrative epidemics can shed some light.
[editor’s note: another great post which deserves a full read]
Arizona is #1, Bahrain is #4 – New York Times
There is no country in the world where confirmed coronavirus cases are growing as rapidly as they are in Arizona, Florida or South Carolina. The Sun Belt has become the global virus capital.
This chart ranks the countries with the most confirmed new cases over the past week, adjusted for population size, and treats each U.S. state as if it were a country. (Many states are larger in both landmass and population than some countries.)
Retailers to governors: Please mandate face mask wearing – FOX
Retailers have a message for state governors: Please make everyone wear a face mask.
The Retail Industry Leaders Association, which represents Target, Home Depot and other major chains, says different rules around the country have made it confusing for shoppers and often lead to conflict between customers and workers trying to enforce store rules. Videos on social media have shown shoppers getting angry when employees ask them to wear a mask.
“Retailers are alarmed with the instances of hostility and violence front-line employees are experiencing by a vocal minority of customers,” said RILA President Brian Dodge.
GlaxoSmithKline pens COVID-19 vaccine pact with Medicago – Fierce Biotech
Hoping to broaden shots on target, GlaxoSmithKline is continuing its strategy of giving out access to its vaccine platform as it adds Medicago to its growing partners list.
The tie-up will wed Canada-based Medicago’s recombinant coronavirus virus-like particles (CoVLP) with GSK’s pandemic adjuvant system, which has been used in previous epidemics.
CoVLPs mimic the structure of SARS-CoV-02, the virus responsible for COVID-19 disease, allowing them to be recognized by the immune system. Partnering this approach with an adjuvant “can be of particular importance in a pandemic situation as it may boost the immune response and reduce the amount of antigen required per dose, allowing more vaccine doses to be produced and therefore contributing to protect more people,” according to GSK.
A phase 1 is planned within the next week or so and comes after preclinical testing (and the caveats that brings) showing combing the two platforms “demonstrated a high level of neutralizing antibodies following a single dose.”
COVID-19 Lungs May Be More Likely to Leak – MedPage
Pneumothorax and other barotrauma was more common in COVID-19 patients on invasive mechanical ventilation than seen for other patients on ventilators, a retrospective study showed.
Among invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) patients at NYU Langone Health in New York City during the pandemic surge from March 1 to April 6, barotrauma occurred in 15% of those with COVID-19 and 0.5% of those without it (P<0.001), reported Georgeann McGuinness, MD, and colleagues at NYU Langone in Radiology.
That rate in COVID-19 was also higher than the 10% rate seen among acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients on IMV over the prior 4 years at that institution (P<0.001).
“We saw some of these COVID patients, [air] was under the skin, in the chest wall, in the neck, out into the arms, in the breasts, it was just everywhere,” McGuinness told MedPage Today.
‘Testing alone is almost never the answer’: One state’s struggle to contain the pandemic. – New York Times
Experts acknowledge that testing is not a panacea. Adm. Brett P. Giroir, the assistant secretary of health, sounded a note of caution on Tuesday, warning that testing without other public health interventions would be of little use.
“We cannot test our way out of this,” he told reporters, adding, “testing alone is almost never the answer.”
On Wednesday, Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the White House’s coronavirus response coordinator, said at a task force briefing that gatherings in counties and states particularly hard hit by the virus should be scaled back to ten people or fewer.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Qatar coronavirus cases exceed 100,000; Kuwait tops 50,000
WHO acknowledges ’emerging evidence’ of airborne spread of COVID-19
Israel had coronavirus firmly in its grasp, only to see it slip away
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Texas reports more COVID-19 cases in single day than any EU country as cases rise by 10,000
Coronavirus strains Florida health system as some hospitals run out of ICU beds in largest counties
Early Coronavirus Testing Restrictions Led To Some Big ER Bills
US investing $42M to help company ramp up syringe, needle production ahead of vaccination push
Oglala Sioux Tribe temporarily locks down South Dakota reservation to fight coronavirus
Atlanta Mayor To Order Masks To Be Worn In Public Spaces
Harvard, MIT Sue Immigration Officials Over Rule Blocking Some International Students
States Sue Education Department Over Allocation Of Pandemic Funds To Schools
Florida Orders Schools To Reopen In The Fall For In-Person Instruction
For hard-hit Puerto Rico, the pandemic is the 5th dire emergency in 3 years.
United Airlines says it could furlough up to 36,000 workers in October.
Brooks Brothers, founded in 1818, files for bankruptcy.
44 Florida hospitals at ICU capacity
Texas and Arizona ER doctors say they are losing hope as hospitals reach capacity
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Headline Consumer Credit Again Contracts
Combining Census Bureau Pulse Surveys Reveals Which Workers Are Hardest Hit By COVID-19
Municipal Debt Markets And The COVID-19 Pandemic
A Recovery Worse Than Most Recessions
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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