Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. and global new cases set a new record – and today’s U.S. 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 40 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 37 %). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Thousands of federal immigration employees brace for furloughs
- Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors
- Coronavirus autopsies: A story of 38 brains, 87 lungs, and 42 hearts
- COVID-19 Affects Kids Differently
- New evidence that a mutation helped the virus spread, but questions linger
- US military coronavirus cases more than doubled in 3 weeks
Have a safe 4th of July weekend.
My continuing warning is to continue to wash your hands, wear masks, and maintain social distancing. No handwashing, mask, or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and the 7-day rolling average continues in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 02 July 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 02 July 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 52,048 | 2,690,000 | 199,771 | 10,670,000 | 26.1% | 25.2% |
| Deaths** | 652 | 128,062 | 4,928 | 515,973 | 13.2% | 24.8% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.3% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 4.8% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.96* | 95.34* | ||||
* as of 29 June 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Discussions continue around who will get the Covid-19 vaccine first, CDC director says – CNN
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in the hearing that the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice has been mulling over who should be prioritized. ACIP held a meeting last week during which it was considered that maybe the highest priority should be given to health care personnel and essential workers.
In a previous ACIP meeting, some other proposed priority groups that were discussed included adults ages 65 and older, long-term care facility residents, people with high-risk underlying medical conditions and pregnant women, among others.
“Clearly the most vulnerable and those individuals who are at greater risk for mortality have to be considered as well as those individuals at great risk for infection because of what they do,” Redfield said during the hearing on Thursday, adding that health care workers and caregivers specifically are at an increased risk.
“Depending on which vaccine is approved, it might have particular characteristics making it more or less appropriate in given populations,” Redfield said on Thursday. “At the end of the day, it’s really going to be dependent on the characteristics of the particular vaccine product.”
- The restrictions and guidance implemented to curb the spread of the coronavirus will not last forever, Dr. Scott Gottlieb said, urging people to practice public health precautions until the U.S. can safely return to normalcy.
- The U.S. outbreak will end with a vaccine or when enough people naturally develop antibodies against the virus due to infection, he said.
- However, Dr. Anthony Fauci and other scientists have stressed that researchers do not fully understand the role of antibodies in this virus.
The best DIY face mask material and fit? Quilting cotton beats bandana, new study suggests – CNN
Researchers at Florida Atlantic University have experimented with different materials and styles of non-medical masks and found that a well-fitted stitched mask made from two layers of quilting fabric was the most effective in stopping the spread of droplets from emulated coughs and sneezes.
They also compared a loosely folded homemade face mask, such as one you could make with a handkerchief or T-shirt, a bandana-style face covering and a cone-style non-sterile commercial mask that is usually available at pharmacies.
The researchers said they chose to test these styles of face covering because they are readily available to the general public and do not draw away from the supply of medical-grade masks and respirators for health care workers.
… They found that droplets from a simulated uncovered cough were able to travel more than 8 feet; with a bandana they traveled 3 feet, with a folded cotton handkerchief, they traveled 1 foot, 3 inches; and with the cone-style mask, droplets traveled about 8 inches. With the stitched-quilting fabric mask, they traveled 2.5 inches.
Covid-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech shows positive results – STAT
[editor’s note: this is another take on a post we ran yesterday]
An experimental Covid-19 vaccine being developed by the drug giant Pfizer and the biotech firm BioNTech spurred immune responses in healthy patients, but also caused fever and other side effects, especially at higher doses.
The first clinical data on the vaccine were disclosed Wednesday in a paper released on medRXiv, a preprint server, meaning it has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal.
“We still have a ways to go and we’re testing other candidates as well,” said Philip Dormitzer, the chief scientific officer for viral vaccines at Pfizer’s research laboratories. “However, what we can say at this point is there is a viable candidate based on immunogenicity and early tolerability safety data.”
Thousands of federal immigration employees brace for furloughs – Fox
The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) alerted its federal employees that furloughs are coming July 20 because of a big budget shortfall caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Unless Congress pulls through with $1.2 billion to keep the agency afloat, employees will be out of work starting next month, the agency said.
“Without congressional intervention, USCIS will need to administratively furlough a portion of our employees on approximately July 20,” a USCIS spokesperson said in a statement to Fox News. “We continue to work with Congress to provide the necessary funding to avert this unfortunate consequence.”
Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors – New York Times
Hundreds of thousands of seriously ill coronavirus patients who survive and leave the hospital are facing a new and difficult challenge: recovery. Many are struggling to overcome a range of troubling residual symptoms, and some problems may persist for months, years or even the rest of their lives.
Patients who are returning home after being hospitalized for severe respiratory failure from the virus are confronting physical, neurological, cognitive and emotional issues.
And they must navigate their recovery process as the pandemic continues, with all of the stresses and stretched resources that it has brought.
“It’s not just, ‘Oh, I had a terrible time in hospital, but thank goodness I’m home and everything’s back to normal,'” said Dr. David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City. “It’s, ‘I just had a terrible time in hospital and guess what? The world is still burning. I need to address that while also trying to sort of catch up to what my old life used to be.'”
Coronavirus autopsies: A story of 38 brains, 87 lungs and 42 hearts – The Washington Post
Rapkiewicz, who directs autopsies at NYU Langone Health, noticed that some organs had far too many of a special cell rarely found in those places. She had never seen that before, yet it seemed vaguely familiar. She raced to her history books and — in a eureka moment — found a reference to a 1960s report on a patient with dengue fever.
In dengue, a mosquito-borne tropical disease, she learned, the virus appeared to destroy these cells, which produce platelets, leading to uncontrolled bleeding. The novel coronavirus seemed to amplify their effect, causing dangerous clotting.
She was struck by the parallels: “Covid-19 and dengue sound really different, but the cells that are involved are similar.”
[editor’s note: this post is worth a read as it is difficult to summarize the parallels and differences between dengue and COVID-19]
COVID-19 Affects Kids Differently: We Must Pay Attention – MedPage Today
Research shows that traumatic events in childhood can lead to deleterious health effects over the life course.
If anything, children are the least equipped to process unrelenting anguish resulting from something as catastrophic and world-shifting as a public health emergency. We have learned this lesson before. For example, in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria 2 years ago, the federal government’s anemic emergency response contributed to a spike in pediatric depression, anxiety, and suicide in Puerto Rico.
[editor’s note: also see https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/29/nejm-inflammation-children-covid19-misc/ and https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/researchers-find-neurological-damage-in-four-children-with-coronavirus-inflammatory-syndrome.html]
If June was the month the pandemic spiraled out of control in the U.S., July may show how bad it can get. – New York Times
The United States reported nearly 50,000 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, the fifth single-day case record in eight days, as the nation staggers toward a holiday weekend burdened by a pandemic that is only growing worse.
… Though single-day snapshots are an imperfect measure of the pandemic, the broader picture is also exceedingly bleak. Case numbers were trending upward in 38 states as of Wednesday. The problem spots in the country’s South and West were spreading north and east, and hospitalizations surged in some states.
Researchers find new evidence that a mutation helped the virus spread, but questions linger. – New York Times
[editor’s note: we have been highlighting for days that the new varient of the coronavirus is causing a higher infection rate (but possibly much lower effects on the body)]
For months, scientists have debated whether a variant of the coronavirus that has come to predominate in much of the world did so partly because it is more transmissible than other viruses. On Thursday, a team of researchers reported new evidence suggesting that the variant did have such an advantage.
The new paper, led by Bette Korber, a theoretical biologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, and posted by the journal Cell, presents evidence in the form of lab findings, tests of infected patients and a broad statistical analysis of the pandemic as the D614G variant took over in cities, regions and countries. “The consistency of this pattern was highly statistically significant, suggesting that the G614 variant may have a fitness advantage,” the authors concluded.
The underlying question is important for understanding the early phases of the pandemic and anticipating how it will progress in the coming months. If the genetic glitch that defines the variant imparted even a slight increase in transmissibility, it would help explain why infections exploded in some regions and not in others with similar density and other attributes.
New form of coronavirus spreads faster, but doesn’t make people sicker, new study says – CNN
A global study has found clear evidence that a new form of the coronavirus has spread from Europe to the US. The new mutation makes the virus more infectious but does not seem to make people any sicker, an international team of researchers reported Thursday.
The mutation affects the spike protein — the structure the virus uses to get into the cells it infects. Now the researchers are checking to see if this affects whether the virus can be controlled by a vaccine. Current vaccines being tested mostly target the spike protein.
The study, published in the journal Cell, confirms earlier work suggesting the mutation had made the new variant of virus more common. The researchers call the new mutation G614, and they show that it has almost completely replaced the first version to spread in Europe and the US, one called D614.
“Our global tracking data show that the G614 variant in Spike has spread faster than D614,” theoretical biologist Bette Korber of Los Alamos National Laboratory and colleagues wrote in their report. “We interpret this to mean that the virus is likely to be more infectious,” they add. “Interestingly, we did not find evidence of G614 impact on disease severity.”
- Moderna’s stock fell after a report said the biotech company’s late-stage trial for a potential coronavirus vaccine will be delayed, possibly by a few weeks.
- The company, which is working with the National Institutes of Health, was expected to begin a phase 3 trial with 30,000 participants for its vaccine candidate later this month, pending the results from its midstage trial.
- However, the company is making changes to the trial plan, which has pushed back the expected start date, according to health-care publication STAT News, citing an investigator.
US military coronavirus cases more than doubled in 3 weeks – COVID-19 Data
The number of active-duty military personnel infected with the novel coronavirus has more than doubled in the past three weeks, according to figures published by the Defense Department.
As of Wednesday, 6,493 US service members had the virus, up from 2,807 on June 10. And in the past two weeks alone, the number of cases in the Air Force has almost doubled. On June 15, there were 700 reported cases, but by Monday that had jumped to 1,366.
The rise in cases comes as at least 19 states have paused or rolled back their reopening plans in response to a surge in new infections.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Will Europe’s economy recover faster than America’s? The debate is on.
Days after a wedding in India, the groom died and at least 100 guests tested positive for the virus.
Tokyo’s nightlife districts see a surge in new cases.
Honduran President Set to Leave Hospital After Coronavirus Scare
Coronavirus Israel Live: Netanyahu Announces Restrictions on Gatherings After Cases Spike
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
McDonald’s Halts Reopening Plans as U.S. Coronavirus Cases Grow
Internal Messages Reveal Crisis at Houston Hospitals as Coronavirus Cases Surge
Another Day, Another Coronavirus Record In Florida
House Follows Senate In Passing Extension Of COVID-19 Business Loans
Pennsylvania Joins The Growing List Of States Mandating Face Masks In Public
Alabama’s Top Health Officer: Without Compliance, Health Orders Can Only Go So Far
California Halts Many Indoor Businesses In 19 Counties As Coronavirus Cases Spike
Facebook will start telling you to wear a mask to prevent the spread of coronavirus
NIH says rapid coronavirus testing will allow Americans to attend sporting events this fall
U.S. Treasury agrees on loan terms with American, four other airlines
Masks to be required in Indianapolis, Marion County
As COVID-19 cases spike in Los Angeles, USC tells students to take courses online this semester
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
26 June 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues But Continues In Contraction
May 2020 Headline Manufacturing New Orders Improve
May 2020 Trade Again Significantly Declined Due to Coronavirus
June 2020 BLS Jobs Situation – Employment Grew 4,800,000 But Still Down 12,558,000 Year-over-Year
27 June 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,427,000 This Week
Building A Bridge To A Vaccine
Conservation Could Create Jobs Post-pandemic
Should Governments Save Lives Or Jobs Amid Pandemic?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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