Market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Econoday) were 1,000 K to 1,450 K (consensus 1,400 K), and the Department of Labor reported 1,427,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 1,621,250 (reported last week as 1,620,750) to 1,621,250
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
According to the BLS:
The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.
The pandemic has so far caused a 48,961,000 job loss. Likely half of this number are now employed]
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change in the 4-week moving average. There is always some seasonality that migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons help remove some seasonality. The four-week rolling average of initial claims is 580 % higher than one year ago (versus the 635 % higher last week).
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Claim levels before the coronavirus pandemic were at 40-year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
States with the Biggest Increases in Unemployment Due to Coronavirus
Source: WalletHub
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending June 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 1,427,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 1,480,000 to 1,482,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,503,750, a decrease of 117,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,620,750 to 1,621,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 13.2 percent for the week ending June 20, unchanged from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised down by 0.2 from 13.4 to 13.2 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 20 was 19,290,000, an increase of 59,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 291,000 from 19,522,000 to 19,231,000. The 4-week moving average was 19,854,000, a decrease of 494,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 72,750 from 20,421,250 to 20,348,500.
Continued claims give a good idea of the real unemployment levels as some unemployed would have found another job.
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