Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases declined today (although significantly elevated) – and today’s 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 43 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 41 %). Deaths in the U.S. were the lowest since 27 March 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- CDC Says Singers Could Be Virus Superspreaders
- China imposes a broad lockdown near Beijing
- Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy
- WHO is sending a team to China next week in connection with the search for the origin of the virus
- Over half of U.S. states see cases of virus-related syndrome in children
- 43 percent of U.S. virus deaths are tied to nursing homes and long-term care facilities
- Global Coronavirus cases now over 10,000,000 – Deaths now 500,000.
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. No mask or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and now the 7-day rolling average is in record territory for new cases this week.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 28 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 29 June 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 38,673 | 2,550,000 | 159,946 | 10,110,000 | 24.2% | 25.2% |
Deaths** | 265 | 125.804 | 3,041 | 501,562 | 8.7% | 25.1% |
Mortality Rate | 0.7% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 5.0% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.76* | 91.85* |
* as of 27 June 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
CDC Says Singers Could Be Virus Superspreaders — But 100 Sang Unmasked With Pence – NPR
A choir of about 100 performers sang at a megachurch campaign event featuring Vice President Pence on Sunday. They did not wear masks while they sang.
Many epidemiologists and singing experts currently fear that singers may be superspreaders of COVID-19, due to aerosolization of the virus. Singing involves much more forceful and deep breathing than simple talking.
Gilead’s remdesivir will cost $3,120 for patients with private insurance – CBS News
Gilead Sciences disclosed its pricing for the COVID-19 treatment remdesivir, saying it will charge $3,120 for patients with private health insurance. Patients who are covered by government programs like Medicaid will be charged $2,340 for a typical treatment course.
The amount that patients pay out of pocket depends on insurance, income and other factors. “We’re in uncharted territory with pricing a new medicine, a novel medicine, in a pandemic,” Gilead CEO Dan O’Day said in a statement announcing the pricing for remdesivir.
Remdesivir (pronounced rem-des-eh-veer) is an antiviral medication originally developed to treat Ebola and other deadly viruses. After an international COVID-19 drug trial showed that the medication helped some patients recover more quickly, the Food and Drug Administration gave the remdesivir authorization for emergency use in treating coronavirus cases. Gilead is charging two prices for the drug in just one developed country: The U.S., according to The Wall Street Journal.
China imposes a broad lockdown near Beijing to halt a second wave of infections. – New York Times
The Chinese authorities have imposed a strict lockdown on nearly half a million people in a county near Beijing in the latest effort by the government to stamp out a small but stubborn second wave of infections in and around the capital.
Authorities in Anxin County, about 90 miles south of Beijing in the central province of Hebei, announced on Saturday that all residential areas would be sealed off immediately. In restrictions reminiscent of those that were imposed earlier this year in Wuhan, the city where the virus first emerged, only one member from each family is allowed to leave the compound to buy essential items like food or medicine, officials said.
Sealing off the county was a necessary preventive measure following the discovery of a cluster of 13 infections in the area, officials said. State media said that most of the cases in Anxin have been traced back to the Xinfadi wholesale market in Beijing, which is thought to be the source of an outbreak that has infected more than 300 people in recent weeks.
- “Although many countries have made some progress, globally, the pandemic is actually speeding up,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a virtual news conference.
- The virus has infected more than 10.1 million people around the world and killed at least 502,634 people, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
- “The single most important intervention is … tracing and quarantine contacts,” he said. “Six months since the virus started, it could be like a broken record to say exactly the same thing, but the same thing works. Test, test, isolate, quarantine cases.”
Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy protection as COVID-19 cancels shows – Reuters
Canada’s Cirque du Soleil Entertainment Group filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday as the COVID-19 pandemic forced the famed circus operator to cancel shows and lay off its artistes.
The Montreal-based entertainment company, which runs six shows in Las Vegas, has struggled to keep its business running amid coronavirus restrictions that started in March, forcing it to lay off about 95% of its workforce and temporarily suspend its shows.
“With zero revenue since the forced closure of all of our shows due to COVID-19, the management had to act decisively to protect the company’s future,” Chief Executive Officer Daniel Lamarre said.
AbbVie Combo Doesn’t Benefit Covid Patients, Study Finds – Bloomberg Law
A combination of antiviral drugs normally used to treat HIV didn’t benefit patients hospitalized for treatment of Covid-19, confirming earlier results that hadn’t been encouraging.
The two-drug treatment of lopinavir and ritonavir didn’t help patients survive infection with the coronavirus, when compared with usual care, according to researchers at the University of Oxford studying a variety of potential treatments. There was no evidence that the drugs, developed by Abbott Laboratories and sold by spinoff Abbvie Inc. as Kaletra, helped patients continue to breathe without assistance or recover more quickly.
Doctors are assessing a variety of drugs that have demonstrated a benefit against other illnesses in an effort to get effective treatment for the pandemic quickly. While Oxford’s Recovery trial has already shown a lack of benefit from antimalarial drugs that were touted by U.S. President Donald Trump, it identified the anti-inflammatory dexamethasone as a boon to severely ill patients.
The study has enrolled more than 11,800 patients. About 1,600 patients who got Kaletra were compared with 3,376 who received usual care, the researchers said Monday.
U.S. Pediatricians Call For In-Person School This Fall – NPR
The nation’s pediatricians have come out with a strong statement in favor of bringing children back to the classroom this fall wherever and whenever they can do so safely. The American Academy of Pediatrics’ guidance “strongly advocates that all policy considerations for the coming school year should start with a goal of having students physically present in school.”
The guidance says “schools are fundamental to child and adolescent development and well-being.”
The AAP cites “mounting evidence” that transmission of the coronavirus by young children is uncommon, partly because they are less likely to contract it in the first place.
On the other hand, the AAP argues that based on the nation’s experience this spring, remote learning is likely to result in severe learning loss and increased social isolation. Social isolation, in turn, can breed serious social, emotional and health issues: “child and adolescent physical or sexual abuse, substance use, depression, and suicidal ideation.” Furthermore, these impacts will be visited more severely on Black and brown children, as well as low-income children and those with learning disabilities.
Classroom contact could lead to transmission of Covid-19, CDC research suggests – CDC
Classroom interaction between a teacher and students could lead to Covid-19 transmission, according to a small study by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention researchers published Monday in Emerging Infectious Diseases.
The report details a case where a teacher infected with Covid-19 may have infected students after returning to the classroom while still experiencing symptoms. The teacher first had symptoms, including a headache, sore throat and fatigue, while traveling in Europe in late February. The teacher returned to school while still experiencing symptoms and taught 16 classes of 30 or less students. After the teacher’s Covid-19 test came back positive on March 1, all students were told to quarantine at home. Once the quarantine was over, 21 students from the teacher’s classes took part in the research. The students had a median age of 17.
WHO To Send Team To China As It Warns Pandemic Far From Over – Barrons
Six months on from the novel coronavirus outbreak, the WHO said Monday it was sending a team to China to work towards finding the source — as it warned the pandemic was far from over.
And the World Health Organization warned that in an atmosphere of global division and politicisation of the COVID-19 crisis, it feared the worst was yet to come.
The UN health agency lamented the “very tragic” milestones of 500,000 deaths and 10 million confirmed infections being reached, just as it marks on Tuesday six months since it was first informed of the outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
The WHO is sending a team to China next week in connection with the search for the origin of the virus that sparked the global pandemic.
The organisation has been pressing China since early May to invite in its experts to help investigate the animal origins of the coronavirus.
43 percent of U.S. virus deaths are tied to nursing homes and long-term care facilities. – Pars Today
The report by the New York Times said the number accounted for 43 percent of the deaths linked to nursing homes populations as they are at a high risk of being infected by and dying from the flu-like pathogen, known to be particularly lethal to adults in their 60s with underlying health conditions.
As of June 26, the virus has infected more than 282,000 people at some 12,000 facilities, according to the Times database.
“While 11 percent of the country’s cases have occurred in long-term care facilities, deaths related to Covid-19 in these facilities account for more than 43 percent of the country’s pandemic fatalities,” the report underlined.
“The share of deaths linked to long-term care facilities for older adults is even starker at the state level. In 24 states, the number of residents and workers who have died accounts for either half or more than half of all deaths from the virus,” it added.
Over half of U.S. states see cases of virus-related syndrome in children – New York Times
Over half of American states have seen young people become seriously ill from a coronavirus-related inflammatory syndrome, most of them previously healthy, according to the first national report on such cases.
Nearly 90 percent of the 186 patients in the report were hospitalized, and most of those hospitalized needed intensive care, the researchers said. One in five of the patients, who were all under 21, became so sick they required ventilators and four children died. The study was conducted by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and several hospitals.
The study, published Monday in the New England Journal of Medicine, along with a separate report by the New York state health department, provides the most detailed picture to date of how the recently-identified condition has spread and how devastating it can be to some children.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
UK considers first local lockdown in COVID-19 pandemic
Singapore hands out coronavirus tracing devices
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
The Post-Coronavirus Cruise? Not Ready to Sail
Broadway To Remain Closed For The Rest Of The Year
At a Houston hospital bracing for a virus peak, new patients are often young.
Lowe’s, Walmart giving workers another round of bonuses during COVID-19 crisis
Amazon giving front-line employees $500 million in bonuses amid coronavirus pandemic
Burger King’s U.S. same-store sales are flat as fast-food customers return to restaurants
Some Florida beaches to close July 4th weekend due to COVID-19
NJ governor says ‘knucklehead behavior’ led him to delay indoor dining for the foreseeable future
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
More Than 30 States Report Increases In Coronavirus Cases L ABC News
June 2020 Texas Manufacturing Improves
May 2020 Pending Home Sales Record Comeback
U.S. Billionaire Wealth Surged During The Pandemic
What Doctors Know About Lingering Symptoms Of Coronavirus
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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