Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases and deaths today hit new records – and today’s 7 day rolling average of new cases is now 37 % higher than one week ago (yesterday it was 34 %). At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- US May Shift Strategy on COVID Testing
- How ‘Superspreading’ Events Drive Most COVID-19 Spread
- As wave of Covid-19 cases crashes, a surge in other health conditions looms
- Coronavirus vaccine will not be a cure-all, virologist warns
- Many Latinos Couldn’t Stay Home. Now Virus Cases Are Soaring in the Community
- Coronavirus Antibody Tests Have a Mathematical Pitfall
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. No mask or social distancing will guarantee you do not get infected – but it sure as hell lowers the risk. There are still idiots out there thinking masks don’t work because they have done some mumbo-jumbo calculation about comparing stopping mosquitos with a chain-link fence (which is a fair comparison). There are too many studies which prove they LOWER the risk of you catching coronavirus if you are in an environment where you cannot social distance and you are indoors AND others are also wearing masks. There is likely little risk reduction is you wear a mask and no one else does. The best solution is social distancing. A quote from Bloomberg’s daily newsletter:
With no vaccine or widely effective treatment against the virus, the only weapon countries have is to rigorously track its spread with robust testing, isolate those infected or potentially infected, and convince everyone else to take precautionary steps such as wearing face masks in crowded places and avoiding mass gatherings. It’s a recipe that’s worked in many places, from Europe to Asia to New York City, which is one reason why many of those places are now casting a wary eye at the prospect of visitors from much of the U.S.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, increasing, and now is in record territory.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 26 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus Statistics For 26 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today*** | Cumulative | Today*** | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 40,949 | 2,420,000 | 181,108 | 9,580,000 | 22.6% | 25.3% |
| Deaths** | 2,437 | 124,416 | 6,711 | 489,182 | 36.3% | 25.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.55* | 86.31* | ||||
* as of 24 June 2020
** evidently several states included “probable” deaths today in the number
*** red color indicates record number
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
US May Shift Strategy on COVID Testing – Newser
The US is considering a major shift in strategy in regard to COVID-19: It’s called “pool testing.” The general idea is to make testing more efficient by taking a shortcut of sorts. Samples would be taken from a group of people and then combined, and then one test would be used for the entire group. Only if it comes back positive would people in the group be tested individually. Details and coverage:
Fauci: Dr. Anthony Fauci tells the Washington Post that “intense discussions” are underway among US health officials about adopting the practice where possible. Why? “Something’s not working,” he says of the current testing strategy. “I mean, you can do all the diagramming you want, but something is not working.”
How ‘Superspreading’ Events Drive Most COVID-19 Spread – Scientific American
As few as 10 percent of infected people may drive a whopping 80 percent of cases in specific types of situations
As scientists have learned more about COVID-19, it has become clear that so-called superspreader incidents—in which one person infects a disproportionate number of other individuals—have played an oversized role in the transmission of the virus that causes the disease. The Boston conference and the funeral in Georgia were among several superspreader events that played “a notable role in the early U.S. spread of COVID-19,” according to a report by Anne Schuchat, principal deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In fact, research on actual cases, as well as models of the pandemic, indicate that between 10 and 20 percent of infected people are responsible for 80 percent of the coronavirus’s spread.
These numbers mean that preventing superspreader events could go a long way toward stopping COVID-19, says Samuel Scarpino, a network scientist who studies infectious disease at Northeastern University. Scientists have identified factors that catalyze such events, including large crowd sizes, close contact between people and confined spaces with poor ventilation. Current evidence suggests that it is mostly circumstances such as these, rather than the biology of specific individuals, that sets the stage for extreme spreading of the novel coronavirus.
As wave of Covid-19 cases crashes, a surge in other health conditions looms – STAT
The Covid-19 crisis has washed across the United States like a tidal wave. And experts say it has set the stage for dangerous ripple effects, with Americans suffering from a decline in conditions they are failing to have treated because of the pandemic.
“There’s a huge, massive wave coming up behind us, because people have delayed vital care in terms of cancer, diabetes, and heart disease,” said Garth Graham, vice president of community health at CVS Health, speaking at a virtual Milken Institute conference this week. The same underlying health conditions, he added, can exacerbate the severity of Covid-19 — particularly if left unchecked.
… “People are ignoring serious things like chest pain and appendicitis that can be treated early and safely,” said Susan Bailey, president of the American Medical Association. “It’s important to keep the lines of communication with health providers open — even in the Covid era.”
Coronavirus vaccine will not be a cure-all, virologist warns – CNBC
A vaccine for the new coronavirus will not be a “cure-all” solution to the pandemic, a virologist has cautioned.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday, Robert Lambkin-Williams, an independent virologist at Virology Consult Ltd, said there was no clear evidence that antibodies produced to fight off the virus gave people any protection against being reinfected with Covid-19.
“That’s important because we don’t know if the vaccines that encourage those antibodies to be produced are going to work,” he explained, adding that the scientific community remained hopeful that antibodies would prevent the coronavirus from infecting individuals more than once.
Even if antibodies did provide immunity, however, Lambkin-Williams warned that there may be too much expectation being pinned on the impact a vaccine could have.
“The vaccine is not going to be a cure-all. We have not had a successful vaccine against this type of virus ever,” he told CNBC. “We will get a vaccine of some description in the next couple of years, but it will not be perfect and it will need to be developed going forward.”
With dexamethasone’s sudden COVID-19 blessing, U.S. steroid supplies plummet – Fierce Pharma
[editor’s note: Dexamethasone – a relatively heap drug – might reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients on ventilators]
Dexamethasone’s swift rise as a COVID-19 treatment has U.S. drug suppliers struggling to keep up.
Hospitals in U.S. regions hard hit by COVID-19 are ramping up use of the well-known steroid, Reuters reports. And group drug purchaser Vizient, which supplies meds to about half of U.S. hospitals, confirmed that surge: It’s seen a 610% increase in calls for the steroid in hospitals across the country.
So far, those calls haven’t been answered as often as Vizient member hospitals would like, either. They’re receiving 54% of their dexamethasone orders now, down from 97% on the day dexamethasone’s breakthrough COVID-19 data were announced, Vizient said.
It doesn’t help that the stepped-up demand hit when injectable dexamethasone was already on the FDA’s shortages list.
Many Latinos Couldn’t Stay Home. Now Virus Cases Are Soaring in the Community. – New York Times
Infections among Latinos have far outpaced the rest of the nation, a testament to the makeup of the nation’s essential work force as the American epidemic has surged yet again in the last couple of weeks.
Latinos in the United States are hardly a cultural monolith, and there is no evidence yet that any ethnic group is inherently more vulnerable to the virus than others. But in the last two weeks, counties across the country where at least a quarter of the population is Latino have recorded an increase of 32 percent in new cases, compared to a 15 percent increase for all other counties, a Times analysis shows.
The analysis affirms broad national tallies by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which show Latinos making up 34 percent of cases nationwide, a much higher proportion than the group’s 18 percent share of the population.
Coronavirus Antibody Tests Have a Mathematical Pitfall – Scientific American
Scientists working to quell the COVID-19 pandemic have developed tests that detect antibodies in the blood of people who have previously been infected with the new coronavirus. These serology tests can provide important data on how COVID-19 is spreading through a population. There is also hope that the presence of certain antibodies may signify immunity to future infection—a possibility scientists are still investigating. Antibody tests do have potential shortcomings: they may detect ineffective antibodies, they do not indicate if an infection is still active, and they fail to detect infection if administered before antibodies develop. A new test’s accuracy can also be difficult to determine because of a lack of data.
Still, such tests have been proposed as a way for individuals to find out if they have already been infected with the novel coronavirus. But a mathematical wrinkle makes these tests—and in fact, all screening tests—hard to interpret: even with a very accurate test, the fewer people in a population who have a condition, the more likely it is that an individual’s positive result is wrong. If it is, people might think they have the antibodies (and thus may have immunity), when in fact they do not.
A positive screening test result for other diseases usually prompts follow-up testing to confirm a diagnosis. But for COVID-19 screening, such follow-up has been rare because testing resources are scarce or because other testing methods are prioritized for the sickest patients. Here’s a look at the massive impact infection rates can have on the predictive value of these tests for individuals.
Millions more could die in a possible second coronavirus wave, WHO official warns – TBS
Millions of people could die if the coronavirus pandemic sees a second wave of infections, a World Health Organization official warned on Friday.
He added that the deadly outbreak has so far unfolded much like officials at WHO had anticipated, reports the CNN.
“The comparison is with the Spanish Flu, which behaved exactly like Covid: it went down in the summer and fiercely resumed in September and October, creating 50 million deaths during the second wave,” Dr Ranieri Guerra, WHO assistant director-general for strategic initiatives told Italy’s Rai TV.
Statins may help older coronavirus patients avoid symptoms; COVID-19 more than respiratory illness – Reuters
Statins may help protect frail older people from severe COVID-19 symptoms
Widely-used cholesterol-lowering statin drugs may be associated with substantially fewer symptoms in older, frail COVID-19 patients, a small study suggests. Among 154 coronavirus patients at two nursing homes, those who took a statin, such as Lipitor, were nearly three times more likely to be free of symptoms during their infection than those who did not, researchers in Belgium found. There was also slight trend toward lower risks for lengthy hospital stays and death that was not statistically significant. The study was not randomized, so more formal trials are needed to definitively prove that statins affect outcomes. “In the current absence of other valuable therapies and considering the benefit-risk balance, an older person living in a nursing home could consider taking a statin if at high COVID-19 infection risk,” the authors advised. The study, reported on Friday on the medRxiv website, has not yet been peer-reviewed. (bit.ly/2X3K57g)
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Major incident declared after thousands flock to UK beaches in sweltering heat
Danish Prime Minister Postpones Wedding For EU Coronavirus Meeting
Swedish Disease Expert Calls WHO’s COVID-19 Warning ‘A Total Mistake’
Italy’s coronavirus spending bonanza
‘Plasma therapy helping moderate Covid-19 patients stabilise’: Delhi CM Kejriwal
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Report On Deadly COVID-19 Outbreak At Holyoke Soldiers’ Home: ‘Gut-Wrenching’
Indy 500 Will Run In August, With Its Massive Grandstands At 50% Capacity
Florida Smashes Coronavirus Case Record: Nearly 9,000 Positive Cases On Thursday
Texas Gov. Orders Bars To Close, Reduces Restaurant Seating As COVID-19 Cases Surge
Illinois Cautiously Reopens Zoos, Fitness Centers And Movie Theaters Friday
Illinois Cautiously Reopens Zoos, Fitness Centers And Movie Theaters Friday
Coronavirus task force returns, but downplays new flareups as local ‘hot spots’
Florida bans drinking at bars again as COVID-19 cases spike
New Jersey governor: ‘I believe we will be back in school’ this fall with coronavirus protocols
16 NBA players test positive for coronavirus, league and players association say
Millions of people may have had coronavirus in the past without knowing it, CDC says
Gov. Newsom: Imperial County needs to reinstate stay-at-home order
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
19 June 2020 ECRI’s WLI Improvement Continues But Continues In Contraction
Final June 2020 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Improves Over May
May 2020 Headline Personal Income Declines, Expenditures Significantly Improve
Rail Week Ending 20 June 2020 – Again Slight Improvement But Remains Deep In Contraction
Infographic Of The Day: The COVID-19 Impact On Advertising
How COVID-19 Has Impacted U.S. Spending Levels
Depression Dominoes Are Toppling
Dexamethasone: New Breakthrough Treatment For COVID-19?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge]. Note that using this data is dangerous as the actual flu cases are estimated and not counted – nobody knows how accurate these guesses are.
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have? At this point, it does not seem hot weather slows this coronavirus down.
- Outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out an effective vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will other medical treatments for Covid-19 ease symptoms and reduce deaths?
- A current scientific understanding of the way the coronavirus works can be found [here].
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault.
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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