June 2020 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves

Of the three regional Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys released to date, one is in expansion, one is in contraction, and one is in the neutral zone.

Market expectations from Econoday were -14 to 0 (consensus -5). The actual survey value was 0 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Fifth District manufacturing held fairly steady in June, according to the most recent survey from the Richmond Fed. The composite index rose from −27 in May to 0 in June, as shipments were relatively flat, more firms reported increases in new orders, and firms generally reported continued declines in employment. The index for local business conditions rose notably in June, indicating optimism among firms after three months of some of the most negative readings on record for that series. Manufacturers were also optimistic, overall, that conditions would improve in the next six months.

Survey results suggested that some manufacturing firms saw decreased employment in June. Meanwhile, wages, the average workweek, and availability of skills appeared fairly flat, on the whole. Survey respondents expected employment, wages, and the average workweek to increase in the coming months.

The average growth rates of both prices paid and prices received by survey participants increased in June, with growth of prices paid outpacing that of prices received. Firms expected price growth to continue to rise in the near future

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Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

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Federal Reserve Industrial Production – Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey’s Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (red bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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