Written by Steven Hansen
The U.S. new cases are still seeing accelerated growth – and today’s 7 day rolling average of new cases were the highest since 08 May 2020. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- What Does Asymptomatic COVID-19 Look Like Under the Surface?
- Gilead is about to start trials of an inhaled version of remdesivir
- Demand for steroid used to treat COVID-19 patients is surging, says World Health Organization
- Apple introduces new Covid-19 features: Hand washing guides and a mask-wearing emoji
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high and increasing, deaths are the lowest since 27 March 2020 and still trending down.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 22 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
What Does Asymptomatic COVID-19 Look Like Under the Surface? – MedPage
Asymptomatic individuals carrying SARS-CoV-2 shed the virus longer than those with COVID-19 symptoms, with other lab findings suggesting the symptomatic patients mounted more robust immune responses, a small study in China found.
Median duration of viral shedding among 37 asymptomatic patients was 19 days (interquartile range 15-26; range 6-45) versus 14 days among 37 matched symptomatic patients (IQR 9-22; log-rank P=0.028), reported Jing-Fu Qiu, PhD, of Chongqing Medical University, and colleagues, though viral shedding does not necessarily mean the patients were infectious.
Virus-specific IgG antibody titers and cytokine levels were also significantly lower among asymptomatic patients in the acute phase of infection, when viral RNA can be found in respiratory specimens, the authors wrote in Nature Medicine — both of which indicated that immune responses weren’t as strong in the asymptomatic group.
Asymptomatic transmission of COVID-19 is one of its biggest mysteries, with the World Health Organization recently reminding the public of the distinction between asymptomatic patients, who never develop symptoms, and presymptomatic patients, who go on to develop symptoms later in the course of disease.
COVID-Crunch? Fed Begins Rationing Coins As Americans Horde Cash – ZeroHedge
Having closed the US Mint and halted production (blaming COVID-19) after a surge in demand for gold and silver coins, and warned of the danger of using bills (once again blaming the pandemic and choosing to “quarantine” cash for the sake of Americans’ health), Fed Chair Powell quietly admitted to lawmakers this week that The Fed will be rationing coins as the circulation of coins across the US economy ground to a halt due to the pandemic.
An Open Letter from Daniel O’Day, Chairman & CEO – Gilead Sciences
After receiving the green light from the FDA to move forward, Gilead is about to start trials of an inhaled version of remdesivir. We will screen healthy volunteers for Phase 1 trials this week and hope to begin studies in patients with COVID-19 in August. If the trials are successful, this could represent important progress. Remdesivir, our investigational antiviral medicine, is currently given to patients intravenously through daily infusions in the hospital. An inhaled formulation would be given through a nebulizer, which could potentially allow for easier administration outside the hospital, at earlier stages of disease. That could have significant implications in helping to stem the tide of the pandemic.
We have already learned a lot about how remdesivir works in a relatively short space of time. All of us at Gilead are grateful for the strong collaborations that helped to make this possible and to the thousands of patients who have taken part in clinical trials. Remdesivir is now being used to treat patients through emergency use authorizations and other access programs around the world. And yet, we still have some way to go in exploring the full potential of remdesivir to help against COVID-19.
Pandemic Far From Over as Daily Case Toll Hits New High – Statista
With restrictions gradually lifted, borders and businesses reopening and a hint of normalcy returning to people’s lives in many countries, it’s easy to forget that we’re still in the middle of a pandemic. And while the coronavirus outbreak appears to be under control (for now) in large parts of Europe, including former hotspots Italy and Spain, global infections are still on the rise, with a handful countries currently bearing the brunt of new infections.
According to the World Health Organization, daily new cases hit a new high of 183,020 on June 21, with Brazil (54,771), the United States (36,617) and India (15,413) accounting for almost 60 percent of newly confirmed cases on Sunday. The resurgence of new infections in the United States is particularly worrying, as parts of the American public appear to have moved past the COVID-19 pandemic, perhaps prematurely.
According to the WHO, more than 8.7 million cases of COVID-19 had been confirmed worldwide as of June 21, resulting in 461,715 deaths. As the following chart shows, the pandemic shows no signs of easing yet, even if many countries appear to have contained the first wave of infections.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The director of the National Cancer Institute believes the Covid-19 pandemic is posing a danger to cancer patients across a wide spectrum of care and research. People — and their health care providers — are postponing screening measures like mammograms and colonoscopies. Fewer cancers are being diagnosed, and treatment regimens are being stretched out into less frequent encounters. Clinical trials have seen patient enrollment plummet.
An NCI model looking just at breast cancer and colorectal cancer predicts there will be 10,000 excess deaths in the U.S. over the next 10 years because of pandemic-related delays in diagnosing and treating these tumors. That’s about a 1% increase over the number of expected deaths during that time span, with most of the rise coming in the next two years. And that assumes cancer care depressed by the coronavirus rebounds after six months.
Corporate America divided over COVID-19’s impact on corporate sustainability programs – The Conference Board
Corporate sustainability programs—initiatives designed to promote the long-term welfare of the company, multiple stakeholders (including shareholders, employees, customers), society at large, and the environment—can be an invaluable asset for organizations both during and after a crisis. But survey respondents (comprising general counsel, corporate secretaries, and investor relations executives) at more than 230 US public companies, are sharply divided on how the crisis will affect their sustainability programs.
Over 30 percent see the pandemic having a negative impact on sustainability efforts: 12.3 percent believe the crisis will decrease the overall emphasis on sustainability, and 18.6 percent think it will put sustainability efforts on temporary hold. Only 10.2 percent think the crisis will increase the overall emphasis on sustainability at their company. The largest share, 37.3 percent, expect a shift in the priorities of those programs.
To avoid a collision with institutional investors and other stakeholders, who are continuing to press forward on their ESG agenda, boards and senior management will want to carefully assess the impact of the pandemic on their sustainability initiatives and promptly communicate any updates to their sustainability strategy to stakeholders.
The Conference Board, Debevoise & Plimpton, Russell Reynolds Associates, and ESG analytics firm ESGAUGE surveyed companies from April 9 through May 8. Respondents weighed in on the various corporate governance challenges amid COVID-19 and how their organizations have responded.
The Pandemic’s Mental Toll: More Ripple Than Tsunami – New York Times
The psychological fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has yet to fully show itself, but some experts have forecast a tsunami of new disorders, and news accounts have amplified that message.
The World Health Organization warned in May of “a massive increase in mental health conditions in the coming months,” wrought by anxiety and isolation. Digital platforms such as Crisis Text Line and Talkspace regularly reported spikes in activity through the spring. And more than half of American adults said the pandemic had worsened their mental health, according to a recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation.
But this wave of new mental problems is still well offshore, and it could yet prove to be a mirage. Psychiatrists and therapists who work with people in the wake of earthquakes, hurricanes and other disasters noted that surges in anxiety and helplessness were natural reactions that seldom become traumatic or chronic. Surveys that ask people about their emotions are poor predictors of lasting distress, and the prevalence of severe mental disorders, like schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, are stable and very unlikely to have changed because of the pandemic. Most people living with these conditions needed continuous care before the virus took hold and will still need it when outbreaks are contained.
Demand for steroid used to treat COVID-19 patients is surging, says World Health Organization – CNN
Worldwide demand for the steroid drug dexamethasone has surged since a UK-based study last week found that it could help reduce the risk of death among hospitalized Covid-19 patients requiring ventilation or oxygen, according to the World Health Organization.
“Demand has already surged, following the trial results showing dexamethasone’s clear benefit,” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said during a news briefing in Geneva today.
When the preliminary study results were announced last week, WHO said that it welcomed the clinical trial results. The findings are still being compiled and have not published in a peer-reviewed journal.
“Although the data is still preliminary, the recent finding that the steroid dexamethasone has life-saving potential for critically ill COVID-19 patients gave us a much-needed reason to celebrate,” Tedros said.
So Far, So Good: No COVID-19 Spread From Protests…Yet – MedPage
It’s been more than 3 weeks since George Floyd’s death sparked an ongoing wave of national protests, and some cities are cautiously optimistic that these large outdoor gatherings didn’t speed the spread of COVID-19.
Loud talking, inconsistent masking, and lack of social distancing at demonstrations made public health experts wary, but many cities with large protests have continued to see a decline in cases.
“We have not really seen an uptick in our overall case numbers for COVID-19 following the protests. At least not yet,” Doug Schultz, public information officer for the Minnesota Department of Health, told MedPage Today via email. “Overall our case numbers continue to go down.”
… In New York City, new cases are similarly still on the decline. Michael Lanza, the assistant press secretary for the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, was also cautious in noting that the city hasn’t yet seen an increase in cases tied to the demonstrations.
… Despite large protests, Washington, D.C., continues to see a decline in cases, with fewer than 100 a day since June 4.
… Georgia, which saw large demonstrations in Atlanta that have continued with the recent shooting of Rayshard Brooks by a white police officer, has remained on a plateau of 500 to 1,000 new daily cases since mid-April — despite the state being among the earliest to start re-opening on April 24.
‘This Scares Me,’ Says Bill McKibben as Arctic Hits 100.4°F—Hottest Temperature on Record – Common Dreams
[editor’s note: yah, I know this has nothing to do with coronavirus – but this warming is scary]
A small Siberian town north of the Arctic Circle reached 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit on Saturday, a figure that—if verified—would be the highest temperature reading in the region since record-keeping began in 1885.
“This scares me, I have to say,” environmentalist and 350.org co-founder Bill McKibben tweeted in response to news of the record-breaking reading in Verkhoyansk, where the average high temperature in June is 68°F.
“Siberian town tops 100 degrees Fahrenheit, the hottest temperature ever recorded north of the Arctic Circle. This scares me, I have to say.”
—Bill McKibben, 350.orgWashington Post climate reporter Andrew Freedman noted Sunday that if the reading is confirmed, it “would be the northernmost 100-degree reading ever observed, and the highest temperature on record in the Arctic, a region that is warming at more than twice the rate of the rest of the globe.”
“On Sunday, the same location recorded a high temperature of 95.3 degrees (35.2 Celsius), showing the Saturday reading was not an anomaly,” the newspaper reported. “While some questions remain about the accuracy of the Verkhoyansk temperature measurement, data from a Saturday weather balloon launch at that location supports the 100-degree reading. Temperatures in the lower atmosphere, at about 5,000 feet, also were unusually warm at 70 degrees (21 Celsius), a sign of extreme heat at the surface.”
Infectious-disease expert says coronavirus spread unlikely to slow in summer or fall – Axios
What he’s saying: “I’m actually of the mind right now — I think this is more like a forest fire. I don’t think that this is going to slow down,” he said. “Wherever there’s wood to burn, this fire is going to burn, and right now we have a lot of susceptible people.”
- Osterholm added that he does not think the influenza model of multiple waves applies to the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
- “Right now, I don’t see this slowing down through the summer or into the fall. I don’t think we’re going to see one, two and three waves. I think we’re just going to see one very, very difficult forest fire of cases.”
… The big picture: As of Sunday afternoon, the country has reported more than 2.2 million coronavirus cases — the highest caseload in the world — and has suffered at least 119,744 deaths from the virus.
- The European Union, which has a population of around 446 million, is seeing average new confirmed case numbers of around 4,000 per day, compared to about 24,000 for the U.S.
- This is at least in part attributable to increased testing by the U.S., but there are surges in infections in several states that outpace the growth in testing. The U.S., which has a total population of around 328 million, has conducted around 26 million coronavirus tests since the beginning of the pandemic.
Apple introduces new Covid-19 features: Hand washing guides and a mask-wearing emoji – CNBC
It’s not as easy as it sounds to correctly wash your hands. Most people don’t scrub for long enough or wash them as frequently as they need to. Even health care professionals don’t sufficiently wash their hands, despite being aware of the benefits, as numerous studies have shown.
So Apple just announced a new feature for the Apple Watch to help users wash their hands in the right way. The feature will launch with WatchOS 7, the new software for the Apple Watch that’ll be available later this year.
The company at its WWDC developer conference noted that the feature will be particularly useful during the pandemic. Public health groups, including the C.D.C., are reminding people to wash their hands after going for a walk or making a trip to the grocery store.
Google Ad Revenue Seen Falling in 2020 on Sharp Hit to Travel – Barrons
Google’s advertising revenue will decline in 2020 for the first time ever, according to a new forecast by eMarketer, an advertising and marketing research firm, as the search ads business feels the effects of a deep decline in travel-related advertising because of the pandemic.
The Alphabet (ticker: GOOGL) unit is expected to have 2020 digital ad sales of $39.58 billion, down 5.3% from the previous year. Google’s share of the digital ad market is expected to decline to 29.4%, from 31.6% last year.
Facebook (FB) is projected to have $31.43 billion in ad revenue for the year, up 4.9%, with its market share increasing to 23.4%, from 22.7%. Amazon.com (AMZN) ad revenue is projected at $12.75 billion, up 23.5%, giving it 9.5% of the market, up from 7.8% a year earlier. The overall ad market is expected to expand 1.7% to $134.66 billion.
“Google has been growing its net U.S. ad revenues at a slower rate than the overall digital ad market since 2016, so this year will continue a trend of Google losing digital ad market share in the U.S.,” eMarketer principal analyst Nicole Perrin said in a statement.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Disneyland Paris Will Reopen on July 15 — Here’s What You Need to Know
Coronavirus: UK’s Covid-19 alert level reduced from four to three
PepsiCo in Beijing suspends operations after reporting 8 COVID-19 cases, 87 close contacts traced
Number of Anglesey chicken plant workers with Covid-19 rises to 175
Beijing can screen almost 1 million people daily for coronavirus, says official
Beijing locks down two construction sites after three workers test positive for Covid-19
50 Filipino workers who died from Covid-19 in Saudi Arabia will be buried there
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Oklahoma sees new daily record for virus cases
NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine
California Hits New High In COVID-19 Hospitalizations
Florida Passes 100,000 COVID-19 Cases
LAX is testing fever-detecting cameras as passengers depart and arrive
COVID-19 cases in Arizona surpass 54,500; 1,342 total deaths reported
White House Cools Off On Temperature Screenings
Coronavirus Statistics For 22 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 25,793 | 2,280,000 | 129,564 | 8,930,000 | 19.9% | 25.5% |
| Deaths | 256 | 119,975 | 3,962 | 468,257 | 6.5% | 25.6% |
| Mortality Rate | 1.0% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 5.2% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.76* | 80.26* | ||||
* as of 20 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Headline Existing Home Sales Declined Again For Third Month
May 2020 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Suggests Economic Growth Modestly Improved
Coronavirus: Why Did England Ignore An Army Of Existing Contact Tracers?
One Metre Or Two? The Science Behind Social Distancing
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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