Written by Steven Hansen
ECRI’s WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward improved, remains deep in contraction, and remains at a level at the values seen during the Great Recession. ECRI also released their lagging and coincident indices this week.
Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices
Please note that the coronavirus is a black swan event and the decline is more immediate and not lagging off six months as one would expect. We are in a recession.
Here is this week’s update on ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index (a positive number indicates growth):
Weekly Leading Index Rises
Click here to freely download ECRI WLI data, including the full history of its level and growth rate.
On mobile, click here to go to ECRI’s Reports & Indexes page, then click “Full Site.”
__________________________________________ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 132.2, while the growth rate increased further to -14.9%.
ECRI has long determined business cycle and growth rate cycle chronologies for 22 countries that can be freely accessed here.
The WLI is one of many ECRI U.S. leading indexes, including some with longer leads over cyclical turning points in economic growth.
For a quick glance at the WLI’s performance, please see the chart below.
Review ECRI’s real-time track record.
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U.S. Coincident Index:
ECRI produces a monthly coincident index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth marginally improved and continues to show economic contraction.
U.S. Lagging Index:
ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy’s rate of growth (released in june) showed the rate of growth declined.
z ecri_lag.PNG
source: ECRI
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