Written by Steven Hansen
There was a surge in new cases with the world new cases now up 22 % above the previous peak on 13 June 2020. The U.S. new cases continue to trend up. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Pushback continue over wearing masks
- Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients may have weaker immune response
- More Data Suggest Proning Helps COVID-19 Patients
- Roche rheumatoid arthritis drug fails to help COVID-19 patients in Italian study
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases. It is interesting that although American’s believe they have the best health care system in the world, the mortality rate is little different than the world average.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 18 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
There was a widely circulated video about what it’s like to be in the epicenter of the pandemic. I did not include it in the daily coronavirus updates because it did not seem right. The following is a video debunking the epicenter video:
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Necessary or needless? Three months into the pandemic, Americans are divided on wearing masks – NBC News
Across the country, there is a deepening divide between Americans who are firmly adhering to guidelines issued by public health officials to avoid the spread of the coronavirus and those who believe the recommendations are overkill, contradictory or just plain annoying.
Masks, in particular, have become a flashpoint from coast to coast: In California, Orange County’s chief health officer recently resigned after she received death threats for her countywide mask order.
And during the wave of nationwide protests against police brutality and systemic racism following George Floyd‘s May 25 death, so many police officers in New York City were spotted violating the mandatory mask rule that they drew the ire of both Mayor Bill de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
… But an out-of-control spike is not inevitable: A British study last week found that widespread mask use in public combined with some lockdown measures could be an “acceptable way of managing the pandemic and re-opening economic activity” while avoiding future waves of the coronavirus while scientists race to develop a vaccine. Two other studies, out of Germany and the United States, found the same thing.
Californians must wear face masks in public – Los Angeles Times
Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday ordered all Californians to wear face coverings while in public or high-risk settings, including when shopping, taking public transit or seeking medical care, following growing concerns that an increase in coronavirus cases has been caused by residents failing to voluntarily take that precaution.
Newsom’s order comes a week after Orange County rescinded a requirement for residents to wear masks and as other counties across California are debating whether to join other local jurisdictions in mandating face coverings. The Newsom administration did not address how the new requirement will be enforced or if Californians who violate the order will be subject to citations or other penalties.
“Simply put, we are seeing too many people with faces uncovered — putting at risk the real progress we have made in fighting the disease,” Newsom said in a statement. “California’s strategy to restart the economy and get people back to work will only be successful if people act safely and follow health recommendations. That means wearing a face covering, washing your hands and practicing physical distancing.”
Asymptomatic COVID-19 patients may have weaker immune responses to infection, new study finds – CNN
People who have coronavirus infections but never develop symptoms could have weaker immune responses to the virus, a new study suggests.
The small study, published in the journal Nature Medicine on Thursday, found that a group of about three dozen COVID-19 patients who were asymptomatic had levels of antibodies that were significantly lower than what was found among patients who had mild symptoms — a finding that suggests the asymptomatic patients had weaker immune responses.
The researchers, from various institutions in Chongqing, China, also found that the asymptomatic patients had a significantly longer duration of viral shedding — in which they could spread the coronavirus to others — than the symptomatic patients.
The new study included data on 37 COVID-19 patients who were diagnosed before April 10 and developed no symptoms while isolated at a hospital in the Wanzhou District of Chongqing, China. Their health data, taken from blood samples and other tests, were compared with 37 other COVID-19 patients who had mild symptoms.
The data showed that, even though the asymptomatic patients were experiencing no symptoms, they were still shedding the coronavirus — meaning they were infectious — for a median duration of 19 days. That duration of viral shedding was significantly longer than what was found among the patients with mild symptoms, which was 14 days, according to the study.
Report outlines path to safe reopening during COVID-19 – Medical Xpress
A new report from Columbia University’s National Center for Disaster Preparedness outlines the necessary steps to ensure a safe reopening of local economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. The April report, entitled “Work in the Time of Pandemic,” establishes the current realities of the outbreak and puts forward broad guidelines for what it refers to as Phase 1 of reopening. Phase 1 does not entail a full recovery of the economy but rather aims to return businesses to a modified state of operation.
“There are a lot of Americans who need to go back to work, and the challenge is how to make that happen without putting employees and customers at risk of contracting COVID-19,” explained Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness and co-author of the report. Central to the report recommendations are (1) there needs to be a significant up-scaling of testing to determine when people can return to work safely, and (2) even with widespread, accessible testing, businesses across all industries will have to fundamentally change how they do things.
… all businesses will have to implement new COVID-19 policies, the report said. At minimum, businesses will need to enforce physical distancing, require face coverings, limit the size of gatherings, and provide stations for hand washing and/or sanitizing.
Australia says borders likely to stay closed until 2021 – Reuters
Australia is unlikely to reopen its border to international travellers until next year but will look to relax entry rules for students and other long-term visitors, Trade Minister Simon Birmingham said on Wednesday.
Australia has been largely successful in containing the spread of the novel coronavirus, which it attributes to curbs on international travel and tough social-distancing rules.
Birmingham said a quarantine rule for returning citizens could be applied to international students and other visitors who plan to stay for a long period of time.
“We can simply work through the 14-day quarantine periods that have worked so well in terms of returning Australians to this country safely,” Birmingham said in a speech to the National Press Club.
Johns Hopkins calls on US to perform coronavirus antibody tests nationwide – TBS
The new report, published online Thursday and authored by eight experts affiliated with Johns Hopkins University, describes the value of serosurveys and provides recommendations for the US government and states on how to effectively perform these tests amid the Covid-19 crisis
A new report from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health offers up a national strategy for expanding coronavirus antibody testing across the United States, and recommends that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lead a “consistent, standardized effort” to perform such testing nationwide.
A serosurvey then can show what proportion of the population has been previously infected.
Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts – Reuters
[editor’s note: Sweden has proven that herd immunity is not achievable in the case of coronavirus]
A Swedish study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholmers developed COVID-19 antibodies by late April, which could fuel concern that a decision not to lock down Sweden against the pandemic may bring little herd immunity in the near future.
The strategy was championed by Chief Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, whose recommendation for voluntary measures against the virus, rather than a mandatory lockdown like those imposed by many other countries, has divided opinion at home and abroad.
Sweden’s strategy of keeping most schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open even as much of Europe hunkered down behind closed doors exposed it to criticism with death rates running far higher than in Nordic neighbours, even if much lower than in countries such as Britain, Italy and France that shut down.
The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care in Sweden has fallen by a third from the peak in late April and health authorities say the outbreak is slowing. However, Sweden has recorded the highest number of COVID-19 deaths per capita in Europe over the last seven days.
Coronavirus task force is absent as states struggle with worsening outbreaks – CNBC
White House task force meetings still take place but are less frequent and closed to the press. But public health experts and infectious disease specialists say a strong, coordinated message on the virus from President Donald Trump and the White House is more important than ever as states face a surge in cases.
“The lack of a coordinated and strategic response from the White House is a particularly great concern now,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, “as lulls in transmission in some states that have achieved good control are not being fully utilized to get prepared for a potential resurgence in fall.” —Berkeley Lovelace
India Reports Record Spike In COVID-19 Cases, But Nixes Another Nationwide Lockdown – NPR
India reported a record spike in coronavirus cases Thursday, even as the prime minister ruled out a new nationwide lockdown.
With 12,881 new infections registered, it’s the first time India’s daily tally has exceeded 12,000. For most of this week, only the United States and Brazil have been adding more new cases daily.
The Health Ministry confirmed a total of 160,384 active cases Thursday, and 12,237 deaths since the pandemic began — in a population of nearly 1.4 billion. But testing rates are very low.
Hospitals in the biggest cities, Mumbai and New Delhi, are overflowing. Social media is flooded with desperate pleas from families searching for COVID-19 tests and hospital beds. Patients, unable to get admitted, have died in parking lots outside clinics and hospitals.
India has about one doctor per 1,500 citizens. In rural areas, where two-thirds of Indians live and rely almost solely on government hospitals, the ratio is one doctor to more than 10,000 people. The World Health Organization’s standard is one doctor per 1,000 residents.
While government hospitals are overcrowded, some of India’s elite private clinics are charging up to $950 a day for intensive care with a ventilator.
More Data Suggest Proning Helps COVID-19 Patients – MedPage
Oxygenation improved in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 with severe hypoxemic respiratory failure when they were placed in the prone position, a small study in New York City found.
One hour after initiation, oxyhemoglobin saturation increased by a median 7 percentage points (95% CI 4.6-9.4; range 1-34) from baseline in awake, spontaneously breathing patients with at least one awake session of the prone position, reported Sanja Jelic, MD, of Columbia University Vagelos College of Physicians and Surgeons in New York City, and colleagues.
Among 25 patients proned for at least 1 hour, 19 achieved oxyhemoglobin saturation of 95% or greater, though seven of these were eventually intubated anyway, the investigators wrote in a research letter in JAMA Internal Medicine.
MedPage Today previously reported that COVID-19 is not “typical” acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), with some doctors using prone positioning to improve oxygen saturation in non-intubated patients. However, data from the medical literature have been limited. An invited commentary in JAMA noted the scarcity of research on prone positioning in non-intubated patients, even prior to COVID-19.
Scientists worry ‘Operation Warp Speed’ is missing tried and true vaccines – CNN
[editor’s note: as usual, CNN has politicized something. The idea of immunization is problematic in America as this is a divisive issue.]
In the search to find a vaccine to put an end to the coronavirus pandemic, some scientists worry that President Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed” is missing out on tried and true vaccine technologies that have over and over again resulted in proven winners.
The Trump administration is not funding vaccine approaches that have been used for more than 50 years, including for current vaccines against hepatitis, flu, polio, and rabies.
Instead, the United States is investing up to more than $2 billion in newer approaches that are promising, but for the most part, have not resulted in approved vaccines, much less vaccines with long track records.
Saad Omer, a Yale University infectious disease expert, said Operation Warp Speed needs to widen its portfolio to include the older technologies.
“New technologies are good, and they could perform well, but we should really be hedging our bets,” said Omer, who has helped develop several vaccines.
Ford offering U.S. employees work-from-home extension – Fox
Ford Motor Company announced Wednesday that it is offering salaried employees in the U.S. the option to work from home until at least the end of the year.
“As we make plans to bring back the remote workforce, many team members favored these new ways to work and found them empowering, flexible and cost effective,” a Ford spokesperson said. “This has inspired us to expand the optionality for this work arrangement beyond September.”
According to the company, 30,000 U.S. employees will be the first to receive a survey to share how they would prefer to work between September and the end of the year.
Employees will rank their preferences between working remotely full-time, returning to the office full-time, or creating a “blended approach” that includes time both in the office and at home. The survey will also be issued globally to the entire virtual workforce, including some employees who have returned to the office in other regions.
Roche rheumatoid arthritis drug fails to help COVID-19 patients in Italian study – Reuters
Roche’s rheumatoid arthritis drug Actemra failed to help patients with early-stage COVID-19 pneumonia in an Italian study, the latest instance in which an anti-inflammatory drug has fallen through in a coronavirus trial.
Despite the setback, the Swiss drugmaker said that it is pressing ahead with testing Actemra in another trial against COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.
Actemra did not reduce severe respiratory symptoms, intensive care visits, or death any better than standard treatments, the Italian Medicines Agency (Aifa), Italy’s drugs regulator which authorized the study, said in a statement on Wednesday.
The trial, which enrolled 126 patients, about a third of the intended number, was stopped early after an interim analysis raised doubts about the anti-inflammatory medicine’s effectiveness.
“Although not effective in all patients with COVID-19 pneumonia, it is possible that selected subgroups of patients may have a better response,” Aifa said.
Behind Bars: America’s Biggest Coronavirus Clusters – Statista
Out of America’s eight biggest coronavirus outreaks, seven are in jails or correctional facilities. That’s according to a list from the New York Times which shows that the biggest national cluster is in the Marion Correctional Institution in Ohio which has 2,439 cases as of June 16, 2020. Another facility in Ohio, the Pickaway Correctional Institution, has 1,791. The third largest cluster was identified in the Trousdale Turner Correctional Center in Hartsville, Tennessee.
Even though prisons account for the largest outbreaks in the U.S. with deaths within their walls increasing 73 percent in the past month alone, the vast majority of outbreaks have occurred in U.S. nursing homes and long-term care facilities. The toll on inmates has still been heavy, however, with 600 estimated to have died during the pandemic so far.
You will find more infographics at Statista
COVID-19 cases surge in Oklahoma, other states ahead of Trump’s Tulsa rally – Reuters
Several U.S. states including Oklahoma reported a surge in new coronavirus infections on Wednesday, days before a planned campaign rally for President Donald Trump in Tulsa that would be the nation’s largest indoor social gathering in three months.
An uptick in coronavirus cases in many states over the past two weeks, along with rising COVID-19 hospitalizations, reflected a troubling national trend that has seen daily U.S. infection numbers climbing after more than a month of declines.
Oklahoma reported a record 259 new cases over the previous 24 hours, while Florida reported more than 2,600 new cases and Arizona more than 1,800 – the second-highest daily increases for those two states
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Europe Released 122,000 Inmates to Control Coronavirus
Chile tightens lockdowns as coronavirus cases surpass 200,000
Beijing coronavirus outbreak under control – Chinese CDC expert
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Florida governor says 260 Orlando airport workers tested positive for COVID-19. OIA says not quite
Florida woman says she and 15 friends have coronavirus after night out at bar
Second Stimulus Checks Vs. $4,000 Travel Tax Credit: Pros And Cons
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is asking that masks be required at House committee meetings.
1.5 Million File For Unemployment, But Continuing Claims Decrease Slightly
The Cameras Are Rolling On ‘The Bold And The Beautiful’
With Season Still In Jeopardy, Fauci Says MLB Should Finish Before Fall
New York Gov. Cuomo considering a quarantine on travelers from Florida as coronavirus cases rise
Manhattan apartment contracts fall more than 80% in May, Florida surges
Arizona reports single-day high of 2,519 new coronavirus cases
Coronavirus Statistics For 18 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 25,559 | 2,160,000 | 175,841 | 8,320,000 | 14.5% | 26.0% |
| Deaths | 754 | 117,717 | 5,250 | 450,630 | 14.4% | 26.1% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.0% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 5.4% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.90* | 71.80* | ||||
* as of 16 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Leading Economic Index Somewhat Improves – Recovery Path Highly Uncertain
June 2020 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Index Improves And Is Now In Expansion
13 June 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,508,000 This Week
Infographic Of The Day: When Will Life Return To Normal?
Far East Economic Hit From COVID-19 Worse Than Expected
Was The Coronavirus Outbreak An Intelligence Failure?
Economic Consequences Of COVID-19 In The EU-19
Tracking The Next COVID Hotspot
Understanding Our Pandemic – Economy Predicament
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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