Written by Steven Hansen
The seven-day rolling average of new cases in the U.S. now has climbed to values last seen on 23 May 2020 – in other words it is clear the pandemic growing. Worse, the global new cases today were the highest in history for the coronavirus. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Coronavirus hotspots flare
- World Health Organization drops hydroxychloroquine from its coronavirus trial
- Russia’s Putin protected from coronavirus by disinfection tunnel
- Pharmaceutical company begins phase 3 trial of arthritis drug for Covid-19 patients
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases. It is interesting that although American’s believe they have the best health care system in the world, the mortality rate is little different than the world average.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 17 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
You will find more infographics at Statista
source: CNN
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Coronavirus hotspots flare in Arizona and Florida – Reuters
For a second week in a row, half a dozen U.S. states face a surge in new coronavirus cases and rising hospitalizations, including an outbreak linked to a church in rural Oregon.
Arizona, Florida and Oklahoma all reported record increases in new cases on Tuesday after recording all-time highs last week. Nevada also reported its highest single-day tally of new cases on Tuesday, up from a previous high on May 23.
At the Tucson Medical Center on Monday, just a single intensive care unit (ICU) bed designated for COVID-19 patients was available, with the other 19 beds filled, a hospital representative said, adding they were working to increase capacity.
… Across the United States, 17 states saw new cases rise last week, led by Alabama, South Carolina and Oklahoma, according to a Reuters analysis.
Most Coronavirus Tests Cost About $100. Why Did One Cost $2,315? – New York Times
How can a simple coronavirus test cost $100 in one lab and 2,200 percent more in another? It comes back to a fundamental fact about the American health care system: The government does not regulate health care prices.
This tends to have two major outcomes that health policy experts have seen before, and are seeing again with coronavirus testing.
The first is high prices over all. Most medical care in the United States costs double or triple what it would in a peer country. An appendectomy, for example, costs $3,050 in Britain and $6,710 in New Zealand, two countries that regulate health prices. In the United States, the average price is $13,020.
The second outcome is huge price variation, as each doctor’s office and hospital sets its own charges for care. One 2012 study found that hospitals in California charge between $1,529 and $182,955 for uncomplicated appendectomies.
World Health Organization drops hydroxychloroquine from its coronavirus trial – CNBC
The World Health Organization announced Wednesday it is dropping hydroxychloroquine, the malaria drug backed by President Donald Trump, from its global study looking at potential treatments for the coronavirus.
The decision to end hydroxychloroquine testing in the Solidarity trial came after data from the trial and another study suggested it would not be beneficial, said Ana Maria Henao Restrepo, a WHO medical officer.
The announcement is likely to further dampen hopes the drug is helpful against the coronavirus.
Pharmaceutical company begins phase 3 trial of arthritis drug for Covid-19 patients – COVID-19data.com
The first patient in a phase 3 trial was dosed with a drug from Eli Lilly that the pharmaceutical company hopes can help hospitalized patients with Covid-19.
The drug — named baricitinib and marketed as Olumiant — is a therapy approved to treat adults that have moderate to severe active rheumatoid arthritis.
The phase 3 study will enroll 400 patients with Covid-19 who have at least one marker for inflammation but have not been put on a ventilator by the start of the study. The study looks at whether the drug could reduce cytokine storm, the body’s hyper-inflammatory response to the virus and a severe complication that can come with Covid-19 infection.
People under 20 half as likely to catch Covid-19, study finds – CNN
Children and teenagers are estimated to be about half as likely to get infected by the coronavirus than those aged 20 or over, according to research published Tuesday.
The modeling study, carried out by epidemiologists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and published in the journal Nature Medicine, used transmission models to estimate disease susceptibility and the relation of age to cases.
Researchers estimate that clinical symptoms of Covid-19 manifest in around 21% of those aged between 10 and 19. This estimate rises to around 69% in people aged 70 or over.
Looking at epidemic data from China, Japan, Italy, Singapore, Canada and South Korea, researchers said children could be less susceptible to catching Covid-19 from contact with an infected person and could experience less severe disease.
Flushing The Toilet Without The Lid On May Spread Coronavirus Particles – Huffington Post
In a new research paper published in Physics of Fluids, scientists say the virus ― also referred to as SARS-CoV-2 ― may be able to spread through “toilet plumes” (which definitely seem as gross as they sound).
Simulations conducted by the researchers showed that the flush and “turbulence” in the bowl can propel droplets that can rise more than 3 feet. Those droplets can become aerosolized in the air and linger for a short period of time or land on other surfaces in the bathroom.
Evidence shows SARS-CoV-2 can be found in the feces of some patients. Previous research also showed that the virus can be found in stools for up to a few weeks after a person recovers from COVID-19. But it’s not yet known if “whether the virus found in feces may be capable of causing COVID-19,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Russia’s Putin protected from coronavirus by disinfection tunnel – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin is protected from the novel coronavirus by a special disinfection tunnel that anyone visiting his residence outside Moscow must pass through, the state-controlled RIA news agency reported on Tuesday.
The special tunnel, manufactured by a Russian company based in the town of Penza, has been installed at his official Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow where he receives visitors, it said.
Demonstration footage of the tunnel, published by RIA, showed masked people passing through it being sprayed with disinfectant from the ceiling and from the side.
Tracking the Next COVID Hotspot – Statista
Case counts and death rates are finally coming down to pre-March levels in original U.S. COVID-19 hotspots like New York and New Jersey. However, new data points to rural cities and towns as prime spots for future outbreaks and deaths from the disease.
Data compiled by The New York Times shows cities and towns in Georgia, Texas, Arkansas and other Midwestern and Southern states as having the highest growth rate in new cases and new deaths related to COVID-19. The metro area of LaGrange, Georgia, is seeing one of the larger spikes in the country, with a recent daily case increase of 10 percent for the area. Cases in smaller metro areas of Texas are also seeing spikes. For death rates, metro areas and towns like LaGrange, Georgia, and Yuma, Arizona, are both seeing an increase of 17 percent and 13 percent each day, respectively.
While the U.S. may see cases and deaths from COVID-19 dropping nationally, many of those are coming from a select few early hotspots like New York and New Jersey. As these states finally begin seeing results of months of social distancing, the national daily case rate is unsurprisingly dropping. Still, as data from The New York Times points out, rural cities and towns across the country may be new targets for the virus – especially as people grow anxious of social distancing restrictions and reopening measures begin.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Florida Officials Spar Over Rising COVID-19 Cases – NPR
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republican officials, including President Trump, say the rising number of new cases was expected and is mostly the result of increased testing. Florida is now testing more than 200,000 people a week, more than double the number tested weekly in mid-May.
But local officials and public health experts are concerned about other statistics that show that the coronavirus is still spreading in Florida. The state’s Department of Health reports that the number of people showing up in hospital emergency rooms with symptoms of the flu and COVID-19 is rising. Also worrisome — the percentage of people who are testing positive for the virus is going up.
In Palm Beach County, health director Alina Alonso says the rising positivity rate is a clear sign that the new cases can’t just be attributed to increased testing. Since Palm Beach County began allowing businesses to reopen, Alonso says, the percentage of people testing positive has jumped from 4.9% to 8.9%. “The fact that these are going up means there’s more community spread,” she says. “The virus now has food out there. It has people that are out there without masks, without maintaining distancing. So it’s infecting more people.”
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
President Of Honduras Tests Positive For Coronavirus, Vows To ‘Beat This Pandemic’
Brazil Reports Big Surge In Coronavirus Infections
Belgium had the worst response to the coronavirus crisis among OECD countries, EIU says
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Navy Calls 1,629 Reservists To Shipyards Left Shorthanded By COVID-19 Pandemic
Got change? There’s a coin shortage because of coronavirus stopping the flow of physical currency
Target raises minimum wage to $15 an hour months before its deadline
North Carolina reports 1,000+ new coronavirus cases as hospitalizations continue to spike
Arizona reports 1,827 new coronavirus cases, 20 additional deaths
Texas reports highest number of hospitalized coronavirus patients since outbreak began
Michigan schools may be able to resume in-person instruction come fall
Panama extends suspension of international flights due to coronavirus
16 friends get virus after night out. Hear their warning.
China Tightens Controls Over Beijing as Coronavirus Infections Spread
Coronavirus Statistics For 17 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 23,705 | 2,140,000 | 141,063 | 8,140,000 | 16.8% | 26.3% |
| Deaths | 836 | 116,963 | 6,856 | 443,488 | 12.2% | 26.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.90* | 71.80* | ||||
* as of 16 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
What Does The Future Hold For College Students Graduating During The COVID Recession?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
include($_SERVER[‘DOCUMENT_ROOT’].’/pages/coronavirus.htm’); ?>
Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
include(“/home/aleta/public_html/files/ad_openx.htm”); ?>
