Written by Steven Hansen
The seven-day rolling average of new cases in the U.S. continues to stay in a tight band whilst the global new cases seven-day rolling average continues to accelerate. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- review of last weeks news
- Mini-organs push along Covid-19 and other virus research
- India Registers Another Biggest Single-Day Spike With Nearly 12,000 COVID Cases
- Beijing: All Patients With Fever To Be Tested For COVID-19 After Surge In Cases
My continuing warning is to continue to wear masks and maintain social distancing. This virus is defying methods to wipe it out with China back into fighting the spread of coronavirus, while India’s spread continues after a long lockdown.
There is little new coronavirus news on the weekends, but Econintersect has published two summary articles for news this week. I suggest you give these a read:
Folks, this virus is resisting efforts to eliminate it. This means there are things we do not understand or our implementation is flawed. Likely it is both. Bloomberg today talked with the chief scientific officer of drug giant Johnson & Johnson. You get the feeling that he is not believing that any drug will be 100% successful – and had an interesting response to this question: What is the minimum rate of efficacy you believe should be reached for a coronavirus vaccine to be considered useful, or successful?
There’s a debate which is ongoing in the medical community: Is 50% enough? Does it have to be 70%? Does it have to be 90%? If you can prevent 7 out of 10 people from getting infected or getting sick, it’s valuable to do a large vaccination, and that’s not up to us to say that, but that is what the assumption of the authorities is today that we go for a 70% efficacy. It’s a common, accepted number at the moment for a target.
Even though the number of new cases in the U.S. is remaining stubbornly high, the U.S. continues to be a smaller and smaller portion of the new global coronavirus cases. It is interesting that although American’s believe they have the best health care system in the world, the mortality rate is little different than the world average.
The following graph showing the 7-day rolling average for new coronavirus cases has been updated through 14 June 2020:
z coronavirus.png
The following two graphs show the new coronavirus cases this past week and the coronavirus deaths this past week.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Mini-organs push along Covid-19 and other virus research – Knowable
Called organoids, these tissue bits come in diverse varieties: lung mimics with air sacs, gut versions sporting the tendrils that absorb nutrients, and more. They’re handy for viral research, offering a way to study how viruses enter cells and cause disease, as well as how the tissues fight back.
They’re not the only option, of course. The Covid-19 crisis has scientists scrambling to study infection and test treatments in as many ways as they can. Trials for drugs and vaccines have already started in people, but many medications aren’t ready for that stage yet, and it’s difficult to study the viral life cycle in human beings.
Others are working with mice, but those experiments can be slow, and animal responses to infections often differ from those of people. Results come faster with cells that thrive in flat layers, such as African green monkey kidney cells or those from a human liver cancer — but these tend to be highly abnormal, more akin to tumors than healthy body tissues in all their 3-D complexity.
Organoids, in contrast, host many of the cell types in the real tissue, organized in the right way, says Hans Clevers, a cancer and stem cell biologist at the Hubrecht Institute in Utrecht, Netherlands, a pioneer in organoid research and coauthor of an overview of the field in the 2020 Annual Review of Pathology. They are about as close as scientists can get to working on human tissues outside of actual people, and provide a useful intermediate between abnormal cell lines and whole-animal studies.
Beijing: All Patients With Fever To Be Tested For COVID-19 After Surge In Cases – Republic World
In another move to curb the spread of novel coronavirus, Beijing has now made it mandatory for the hospital to scan all patients with fever for COVID-19. China where the lethal repository disease first emerged has successfully managed to control its spread with single digits cases being registered every day. However, after a week of reporting no cases, the Chinese capital saw a resurgence this week, prompting authorities for this move.
As per new regulations, all the hospitals in the Chinese capital are now required to perform a nucleic acid test, antibody tests, CT scan and routine blood tests on all patients with a fever, a Chinese news agency reported citing Beijing ‘s Health commission. Earlier, authorities in Beijing had only made nucleic acid tests mandatory.
Report abnormal surge
Ga Gao Xiaojun, a spokesperson of Beijing’s health commission, speaking at a press conference said that according to the new rules no fever clinic in the city could turn back patients. Instead, they are instructed to carefully monitor them and report if some “abnormal surge” is detected. The official also said hospitals are required to beef up the protection of medical workers, disinfect facilities and screen medics at hospitals that have received COVID-19 patients.
China, on June 14, reported 66 new coronavirus cases, the largest since the disease was controlled in its first epicentre Wuhan in April, prompting the authorities to go into a “wartime” mode to stem the spread of COVID-19 in the capital Beijing which has seen a sudden spike in the number of infections.
India Registers Another Biggest Single-Day Spike With Nearly 12,000 COVID Cases – India.com
With almost 12,000 fresh cases in the last 24 hours, India’s tally of confirmed coronavirus cases has reached 3,20,922. A total of 311 deaths were reported in 24 hours, taking the overall fatalities beyond 9,000- 9,195 to be specific. With this figure, India has now become the world’s ninth-worst affected nation in terms of COVID-19 casualties.
“311 deaths and highest single-day spike of 11,929 new COVID-19 cases reported in the last 24 hours. Total number of cases in the country now at 3,20,922 including 1,49,348 active cases, 1,62,379 cured/discharged/migrated and 9,195 deaths”, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare showed in its data.
Coronavirus Statistics For 14 June 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 25,540 | 2,070,000 | 133,411 | 7,760,000 | 19.1% | 26.7% |
Deaths | 767 | 115,436 | 4,196 | 430,127 | 18.3% | 26.8% |
Mortality Rate | 3.0% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 5.5% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 2.63* | 70.36* |
* as of 12 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
How To Achieve A V-Shaped Recovery Amid The COVID-19 Pandemic
Am I Immune To COVID-19 If I Have Antibodies?
Coronavirus Economic Weekly News 13June 2020
Coronavirus Disease Weekly News 13June 2020
Jobless Claims Gradually Decline, But 20 Million Still Out Of Work
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected as many do not show symptoms?
- To what degree do people who never develop symptoms contribute to transmission?
- The US has scaled up coronavirus testing – but the accuracy of the tests is in question.
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks – and others hit hard?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches safely – but outdoor activities seem to be a lower risk than indoor activities.
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus? Another coronavirus – the simple cold – does not develop long term immunity.
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
Heavy breakouts of coronavirus have hit farmworkers. Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
Resources:
- Get the latest public health information from CDC: https://www.coronavirus.gov .
- Get the latest research from NIH: https://www.nih.gov/coronavirus.
- Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.
- List of studies: https://icite.od.nih.gov/covid19/search/#search:searchId=5ee124ed70bb967c49672dad
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