Written by Steven Hansen
New Coronavirus cases in the U.S. remain elevated but eased somewhat today. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- 23andMe finds evidence that blood type plays a role in COVID-19
- Gilead’s remdesivir slows disease progression in monkeys with COVID-19
- Airlines Say Everybody Onboard Must Wear a Mask. So Why Aren’t They?
- People are paying as much as $10,000 for an unlicensed remdesivir variant for their cats
- US Bankruptcies Soar 48% In May, Most Since Financial Crisis
It would seem that four forces are driving the increase in new coronavirus cases since 01 June 2020 [although there was a modest improvement today]:
- the Memorial Day weekend brought people together
- the easing of the lockdown across the U.S.
- the protests bringing people in closer proximity
- as farmworkers work and live in close proximity, coronavirus cases have been raging
z coronavirus.png
Farmworkers are essential to the food supply. They cannot shelter at home. Consider:
- they have high rates of the respiratory disease [occupational hazard]
- they travel on crowded buses chartered by their employers
- few have health insurance
- they cannot social distance and live two to four to a room – and they eat together
- some reports say half are undocumented
- they are low paid and cannot afford not to work – so they will go to work sick
- they do not have access to sanitation when working
- a coronavirus outbreak among farmworkers can potentially shutter entire farm
This is why the coronavirus is raging through the farmworkers.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Satellite Data, Internet Searches Suggest COVID-19 Hit China ‘Long Before’ Previously Known – ABC News
[editor’s note: this article contains the most compelling evidence yet [while not conclusive, are telling] that the coronavirus was causing disruption in Wuhan in mid-October. This post is worth a read].
Dramatic spikes in auto traffic around major hospitals in Wuhan last fall suggest the novel coronavirus may have been present and spreading through central China long before the outbreak was first reported to the world, according to a new Harvard Medical School study.
Using techniques similar to those employed by intelligence agencies, the research team behind the study analyzed commercial satellite imagery and “observed a dramatic increase in hospital traffic outside five major Wuhan hospitals beginning late summer and early fall 2019,” according to Dr. John Brownstein, the Harvard Medical professor who led the research.
… “What we’re trying to do is look at the activity, how busy a hospital is,” Brownstein added. “And the way we do that is by counting the cars that are at that hospital. Parking lots will get full as a hospital gets busy. So more cars in a hospital, the hospital’s busier, likely because something’s happening in the community, an infection is growing and people have to see a doctor. So you see the increases in the hospital business through the cars… We saw this across multiple institutions.”
Other hospitals showed up to a 90% increase when comparing traffic between fall of 2018 and 2019, according to the study. At Wuhan Tongji Medical University, the spike in car traffic was found to have occurred in mid-September 2019.
To ensure they were not reaching faulty conclusions, researchers said they took into account everything that could explain away traffic surges — from large public gatherings to the possibility of new construction at the hospitals. Still, they said they found statistically significant increases in the numbers of cars present.
People are paying as much as $10,000 for an unlicensed remdesivir variant for their cats, in a thriving black market linked to Facebook groups – Business Insider
- A variant of remdesivir, one of the most promising treatments for COVID-19, has for more than a year been sold as a treatment for sick cats via a black market connected to big Facebook groups.
- The drug, called GS-441524, is being sold as a purported cure for Feline Infectious Peritonitis, which is caused by a coronavirus, the same family of pathogen that causes COVID-19 in humans.
- Despite not being licensed as a treatment for FIP by the Food and Drugs Administration, the drug is being sold to US consumers by Chinese firms, with courses sold for up to $10,000.
- The transactions do not take place on Facebook’s platform, but large cat owner groups have banded together to connect buyers to sellers, and attempt to screen the drug for purity.
- An academic who pioneered using the drug on cats says that a black market is the only option because pharma giant Gilead, which has the rights to GS, will not license it for use in cats.
- Critics say the unlicensed trade can lead to dangerous, low-quality drugs which could even find their way into human use.
23andMe finds evidence that blood type plays a role in COVID-19 – 23andMe
- The preliminary data suggest that O blood type appears to be protective against the virus when compared to all other blood types.
- Individuals with O blood type are between 9-18% percent less likely than individuals with other blood types to have tested positive for COVID-19, according to the data.
- There appeared to be little differences in susceptibility among the other blood types.
- These findings hold when adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, and co-morbidities.
- Although one study found the blood group O only to be protective across rhesus positive blood types, differences in rhesus factor (blood type + or -) were not significant in 23andMe data. Nor was this a factor in susceptibility or severity in cases.
- Among those exposed to the virus — healthcare and other front line workers — 23andMe found that blood type O is similarly protective, but the proportion of cases within strata is higher.
Gilead’s remdesivir slows disease progression in monkeys with COVID-19 – CNBC
Gilead Sciences Inc’s antiviral drug, remdesivir, prevented lung disease in macaques infected with the new coronavirus, according to a study published in medical journal Nature on Tuesday.
Remdesivir has been cleared for emergency use in severely-ill patients in the United States, India and South Korea. Some European nations are also using it under compassionate programs.
Trials of the drug in humans are ongoing, and early data has shown the drug helped patients recover more quickly from the illness caused by the new coronavirus.
Human trial begins in China on another potential COVID-19 antibody therapy – CNN
Doctors dosed a healthy volunteer on Monday with an antibody treatment developed by Eli Lilly and Chinese company Junshi Biosciences to fight COVID-19.
The trial is underway in China. Lilly will start a complementary Phase one study in the United States in the next few days, the company said.
Scientists will first test to see if this antibody treatment, called JS016, is safe to be used in humans. If so, it will be tested to see if it if effective.
If this first phase is successful, more trials will run to determine how to use it most effectively.
New Evidence Social Distancing Is on the Wane – Bloomberg
There’s growing evidence that life is returning to normal in the U.S. even though Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, remains a threat. These charts show that the reopening of the country’s economy has occurred steadily since early April, when social distancing was at its maximum.
The reopening, which shows no sign of slowing, makes it more important than ever for people to practice good hygiene. You didn’t need to wear a surgical mask when you were home alone with the dog and the TV, but if you’re now circulating in public, you need to take precautions against being infected with the virus—or giving it to someone else if you have it without knowing.
Coronavirus Wreaks Havoc on Economic Growth Prospects – Statista
The World Bank published its latest Global Economic Prospects report on Monday, providing us with another glimpse of the expected economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to its revised forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2 percent this year, which would mark the deepest recession since World War II.
“This is a deeply sobering outlook, with the crisis likely to leave long-lasting scars and pose major global challenges,” said World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, who urged the global community to “unite to find ways to rebuild as robust a recovery as possible to prevent more people from falling into poverty and unemployment.”
You will find more infographics at Statista
Airlines Say Everybody Onboard Must Wear a Mask. So Why Aren’t They? – New York Times
As airlines try to convince Americans to fly again, they have touted their policies for keeping passengers safe, including the requirement that everyone onboard a plane wear a mask.
But travelers on recent flights said the rules are not being enforced. And flight attendants said they have been told not to confront passengers who opt to not follow them.
“This Is Just The Start”: US Bankruptcies Soar 48% In May, Most Since Financial Crisis – ZeroHedge
One month ago, when showing the uncanny correlation between defaults and the unemployment rates, we predicted that the number of Chapter 11 filings that is about to flood the US will be nothing short of biblical.
All that was missing was a catalyst, one which according to Bloomberg arrived in late May as retail landlords started sending out thousands of default notices to tenants, who in turn experienced a collapse in foot traffic, sales and cash flow due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and were simply unable to pay their debt obligations.
According to Bloomberg, restaurants, department stores, apparel merchants and specialty chains have been receiving notices from landlords – some of whom have gone as long as three months without receiving rent.
Over half of people tested in Italy’s Bergamo have COVID-19 antibodies – Reuters
More than half the residents tested in Italy’s northern province of Bergamo have COVID-19 antibodies, health authorities said on Monday, citing a sample survey.
Of 9,965 residents who had blood tests between April 23 and June 3, 57% had antibodies indicating they had come into contact with the coronavirus, the survey showed.
Health authorities in Bergamo said the results were based on a “random” sample which was “sufficiently broad” to be a reliable indicator of how many people had been infected in the province, which became the epicentre of Italy’s outbreak.
Arizona hospitals bracing for crisis as COVID-19 cases surge – Tucson.com
The coronavirus pandemic is intensifying in Arizona, mounting evidence shows, with hospitals seeing sharp increases in patients and emergency-room visits.
Last week marked the largest week-to-week increase of coronavirus cases in both Arizona and Pima County since the pandemic began, and Banner Health is reporting its ICUs are at full capacity in Maricopa County and rapidly approaching full capacity in Tucson.
Delhi coronavirus cases set to explode, hospitals running out of beds – Reuters
Delhi’s infections of coronavirus will climb to more than half a million by the end of July and it does not have the hospital capacity to handle such an outbreak, the city state’s deputy chief minister said on Tuesday.
The warning came as harrowing accounts of people struggling to get a hospital bed in the Indian capital emerged, including some who said their loved ones died on the doorsteps of medical centers which refused to take them in.
Despite a vast lockdown of its 1.3 billion people imposed in March, the disease is spreading in India at one of the world’s fastest rates as it re-opens a battered economy.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Coronavirus lockdown: All shops can open on Monday in England
Paris’ Eiffel Tower will reopen June 25 and require guests to wear masks
Spain Makes Masks Mandatory Until Coronavirus Defeated
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Reported coronavirus hospitalizations reach another new high in North Carolina
Economy will not return to pre-COVID levels until mid-2021: ATA
Mayor London Breed Announces Outdoor Dining in San Francisco Starting This Weekend
Amazon is planning to build diagnostic labs as it ramps up Covid-19 testing for warehouse workers
Airline employees’ dilemma: Take severance or gamble on Oct. 1 layoffs
More than half of states may be undercounting coronavirus cases by not following CDC guidelines
Coronavirus Statistics For 09 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 18,822 | 1,960,000 | 108,860 | 7,070,000 | 17.3% | 27.7% |
| Deaths | 493 | 111,007 | 3,076 | 405,587 | 16.0% | 27.4% |
| Mortality Rate | 2.6% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 5.7% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.73* | 61.59* | ||||
* as of 06 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
April 2020 Headline JOLTS Job Openings Rate Declined And Remains In Contraction
April 2020 Headline Wholesale Sales and Inventories In Recession Territory
March 2020 Loan Performance: Delinquency Rates Remain Low Despite Early Impacts of the Pandemic
Are Teens The Big Job Gainers In May Jobs Report?
May 2020 Small Business Optimism Rebounds from April, Earnings Trends Decline
Was The Latest Jobs Report Too Good To Be True?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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