Written by Steven Hansen
New Coronavirus cases in the U.S. continue to trend up. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Half of Singapore’s new COVID-19 cases are symptomless
- U.S. Navy test shows 60% of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies
- The US government’s supply of the only proven Covid-19 drug runs out at the end of the month
- China trying to sabotage, slow COVID-19 vaccine development?
It would seem that four forces are driving the increase in new coronavirus cases:
- the Memorial Day weekend brought people together
- the easing of the lockdown across the U.S.
- the protests bringing people in closer proximity
- as farmworkers work and live in close proximity, coronavirus cases have been raging
The global daily new coronavirus cases continue to hit new highs – the pandemic is far from over.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
It’s Official: U.S. Economy Is In A Recession – NPR
It may seem obvious, with double-digit unemployment and plunging economic output. But if there was any remaining doubt that the U.S. is in a recession, it’s now been removed by the official scorekeepers at the National Bureau of Economic Research.
The bureau’s Business Cycle Dating Committee — the fat lady of economic opera — said the expansion peaked in February after a record 128 months, and we’ve been sliding into a pandemic-driven recession since.
In making the announcement, the committee pointed to the “unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy.”
Advice on the use of masks in the context of COVID-19 – WHO
Updated guidance from the World Health Organization now says everyone should wear cloth masks in public; and high-risk individuals should wear medical masks in certain settings, such as when crowd situations can’t be avoided.
Pentagon removes coronavirus-related travel restrictions on 5 countries and 39 US states – CNN
The Pentagon announced Monday that it had lifted travel restrictions on 44 destinations which had been placed to limit the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
Inhibition of Bruton tyrosine kinase in patients with severe COVID-19 – Science Immunology
Off-label use of cancer drug acalabrutinib (Calquence), which blocks the Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) protein, was associated with reduced respiratory distress and reduction in overactive immune response in a small group of severe COVID-19 patients.
Half of Singapore’s new COVID-19 cases are symptomless – Reuters
At least half of Singapore’s newly discovered coronavirus cases show no symptoms, the co-head of the government’s virus taskforce told Reuters on Monday, reinforcing the city-state’s decision to ease lockdown restrictions very gradually.
Tiny Singapore has one of the highest infection tallies in Asia, with more than 38,000 cases, because of outbreaks in cramped dormitories housing thousands of migrant workers.
It reopened schools and some businesses last week after a near two-month lockdown, but many residents are still required to work from home and mix socially only with their families.
Asymptomatic spread of coronavirus is ‘very rare,’ WHO says – CNBC
- Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, the World Health Organization said.
- Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated the virus could spread even if people didn’t have symptoms.
- But the WHO says that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is “very rare.”
U.S. Navy test shows 60% of carrier crew have coronavirus antibodies – CNBC
- A U.S. Navy investigation into the spread of the coronavirus aboard the Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier has found that about 60% of sailors tested had antibodies for the virus, suggesting a far higher infection rate than previously known.
- More than 1,100 aboard tested positive for the virus as of April, less than 25% of the crew.
- About 400 volunteers participated in the serology tests, lower than the 1,000 volunteers that were sought, but enough to provide statistically relevant data about how the virus spread aboard one of world’s largest warships.
The US government’s supply of the only proven Covid-19 drug runs out at the end of the month – CNN
The US government’s current supply of remdesivir, the only drug known to work against Covid-19, will run out at the end of the month, Dr. Robert Kadlec, a US Department of Health and Human Services official, told CNN.
The government’s last shipment of the drug will go out the week of June 29. Gilead Sciences, the company that makes the drug, is ramping up to make more, but it’s unclear how much will be available this summer.
“Right now, we’re waiting to hear from Gilead what is their expected delivery availability of the drug as we go from June to July,” Kadlec said. “We’re kind of not in negotiations, but in discussions with Gilead as they project what the availability of their product will be.”
Last month, the US Food and Drug Administration gave emergency authorization for remdesivir, an intravenous antiviral medication studied to treat Ebola but now used on hospitalized Covid patients. While not a blockbuster drug, a study shows it shaves four days off a hospital stay, from 15 to 11 days.
China trying to sabotage, slow COVID-19 vaccine development? – The Hill
Rick Scott (R-Fla.) accused China of trying to sabotage the development of a coronavirus vaccine on Sunday without providing details to back up his claims.
“We have got to get this vaccine done. Unfortunately we have evidence that communist China is trying to sabotage us or slow it down,” Scott said on the BBC’s “Andrew Marr Show.”
Scott said China “won’t cheer” if the U.S. or England is the first country to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.
China defends its coronavirus response in new report – Associated Press
Senior Chinese officials released a lengthy report Sunday on the nation’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, defending their government’s actions and saying that China had provided information in a timely and transparent manner.
China “wasted no time” in sharing information such as the genome sequence for the new virus with the World Health Organization as well as relevant countries and regional organizations, according to the report.
An Associated Press investigation found that government labs sat on releasing the genetic map of the virus for more than a week in January, delaying its identification in a third country and the sharing of information needed to develop tests, drugs and a vaccine.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
India Reopens Public Places Even As Coronavirus Cases Rise
With No Current Cases, New Zealand Lifts Remaining COVID-19 Restrictions
Global COVID-19 Deaths Surpass 400,000
The world just reported its highest number of Covid-19 cases in a single day, WHO says
Japan reports no new Covid-19 deaths for the first time in 3 months
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
NFL gives teams planner for total reopening of facilities
MLB proposes 76-game season; players call it a ‘step backwards’
Canada relaxes some border restrictions, but 14-day quarantine is still required
Coronavirus Statistics For 08 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 22,302 | 1,940,000 | 124,305 | 6,960,000 | 17.9% | 27.9% |
| Deaths | 712 | 110,514 | 3,333 | 401,970 | 21.4% | 27.5% |
| Mortality Rate | 3.2% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.8% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 1.73* | 61.59* | ||||
* as of 06 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
May 2020 Monthly Budget Review: Coronavirus Disrupts The Budget
Modest Improvement in Consumer Expectations In May 2020
May 2020 Conference Board Employment Index Remains Deep In Contraction
Coronavirus And The Risk Of Deflation
The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility
Coronavirus Deaths In San Francisco Vs. New York: What Causes Such Big Differences In Cities’ Tolls?
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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