Written by Steven Hansen
New coronavirus cases continue to slowly trend up globally whilst the U.S. new cases continue to slowly trend down. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- Coronavirus-related debt will live in digital profiles for years – hurting Americans’ ability to get jobs, apartments and credit
- Is the Coronavirus Really Getting Weaker?
- Millions Of Higher-Paying Jobs Targeted As Next Wave Of COVID Layoffs Begins
- Trump Administration Selects Five Coronavirus Vaccine Candidates as Finalists
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Coronavirus-related debt will live in digital profiles for years – hurting Americans’ ability to get jobs, apartments and credit – Wall Street Window
Long after the COVID-19 health emergency ends, many Americans will still suffer from the long tail of the pandemic’s economic devastation. For people on the country’s economic fringes, the proliferation of data analytics tools to monitor consumer life – driven by companies that profit from gathering personal data – will magnify today’s financial hardship.
These companies scrape data from your public records, social media interactions, purchase history and smartphone location tracking. Using powerful technologies, they fuse your data into digital profiles that landlords, employers, lenders and other gatekeepers to life’s necessities use to sort and screen people.
… The effects of an eviction can last long after a housing situation is resolved. Companies capture evictions in people’s credit scores and digital profiles. This impacts people’s ability to secure new housing because landlords often rely on digitally assembled tenant screening reports or computerized court records to select tenants.
People are also accruing debt in a scramble to pay for food, cover utility bills and maintain internet access for work and school. Before COVID-19, medical debt was the primary driver of two-thirds of personal bankruptcies. With the cost of inpatient COVID-19 care ranging between US$20,000 and $70,000, the pandemic will likely add to these debt burdens.
CDC director says he’ll keep working with WHO despite Trump’s plans to cut funding to the agency – Business Insider
Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), on Wednesday said his agency will continue to work with the World Health Organization (WHO) despite President Donald Trump’s plans to cut funding.
Redfield told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that the CDC and WHO have a “long history of working together,” and that would continue moving forward.
“I’d like to do the postmortem on this outbreak once we get through it together,” the CDC chief added.
The C.D.C. Waited ‘Its Entire Existence for This Moment.’ What Went Wrong? – New York Times
The C.D.C., long considered the world’s premier health agency, made early testing mistakes that contributed to a cascade of problems that persist today as the country tries to reopen. It failed to provide timely counts of infections and deaths, hindered by aging technology and a fractured public health reporting system. And it hesitated in absorbing the lessons of other countries, including the perils of silent carriers spreading the infection.
The agency struggled to calibrate its own imperative to be cautious and the need to move fast as the coronavirus ravaged the country, according to a review of thousands of emails and interviews with more than 100 state and federal officials, public health experts, C.D.C. employees and medical workers. In communicating to the public, its leadership was barely visible, its stream of guidance was often slow and its messages were sometimes confusing, sowing mistrust.
Surgisphere: governments and WHO changed Covid-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company – The Guardian
The World Health Organization and a number of national governments have changed their Covid-19 policies and treatments on the basis of flawed data from a little-known US healthcare analytics company, also calling into question the integrity of key studies published in some of the world’s most prestigious medical journals.
A Guardian investigation can reveal the US-based company Surgisphere, whose handful of employees appear to include a science fiction writer and an adult-content model, has provided data for multiple studies on Covid-19 co-authored by its chief executive, but has so far failed to adequately explain its data or methodology.
Data it claims to have legitimately obtained from more than a thousand hospitals worldwide formed the basis of scientific articles that have led to changes in Covid-19 treatment policies in Latin American countries. It was also behind a decision by the WHO and research institutes around the world to halt trials of the controversial drug hydroxychloroquine. On Wednesday, the WHO announced those trials would now resume.
Economic Effects of Additional Unemployment Benefits of $600 per Week – CBO
CBO estimates that extending that [$600 per week] increase for six months through January 31, 2021, would have the following effects:
- Roughly five of every six recipients would receive benefits that exceeded the weekly amounts they could expect to earn from work during those six months.
- The amount, on average, that recipients spent on food, housing, and other goods and services would be closer to what they spent when employed than it would be if the increase in unemployment benefits was not extended.
- The nation’s economic output would probably be greater in the second half of 2020 than it would be without the extension of the increase; in calendar year 2021, however, output would be lower than it would be without the extension.
- Employment would probably be lower in the second half of 2020 than it would be if the increase in unemployment benefits was not extended; in calendar year 2021, employment would be lower than it would be without the extension.
Good news for small businesses as Senate passes PPP reform bill – CNBC
PPP loans convert into a federal grant if business owners meet certain conditions.
Current rules require business owners to spend their money within eight weeks and direct 75% of funding toward payroll costs to get their loan fully forgiven.
The new legislation extends the deadline to 24 weeks from eight weeks and reduces the share of funding that must be directed toward payroll costs to 60%. It also pushes back a June 30 deadline to rehire laid-off workers.
The Small Business Administration, which oversees the lending program, had approved 4.5 million PPP loans worth $510.6 billion as of Wednesday evening. More than $120 billion in funding is still available.
Is the Coronavirus Really Getting Weaker? – Bloomberg
There’s an enormous difference between a lull caused by a persistent shift in the virus, and one caused by other dynamics. The first means that the virus has a real chance of petering out as a major threat over time. The second scenario means that the virus could return with a vengeance if countries and individuals put their guard down. At the moment, there just doesn’t seem to be enough evidence to support the idea of a shift.
Coronaviruses are slow to mutate compared to influenza, and Covid-19 doesn’t appear to be different. Most mutations don’t result in any kind of meaningful change to how a virus acts. Early studies of SARS-CoV2 genomes have found genetic changes but not a lineage that meets the definition of a new strain, a branch of the virus that’s functionally different from others.
One pre-print look at over 15,000 genomes from the University College of London’s Genetics Institute examined the possible emergence of a more transmissible strain. The mutations it found appeared to be either neutral or slightly harmful to Covid’s spread, and a less infectious version is less likely to stick around. The researchers didn’t look at the possibility of a mutation that makes the virus less deadly, but said most recurrent genetic changes they’d seen so far don’t seem like evolutionary adaptations.
Millions Of Higher-Paying Jobs Targeted As Next Wave Of COVID Layoffs Begins – ZeroHedge
With over 40 million jobs lost in the past two months, a total that puts the Great Depression to shame, one argument tossed around by Wall Street to minimize the impact on lost US productivity is that for the most part, the job losses have been among low-skilled, low-wage, low productivity blue collar jobs, while most higher-paying, white collar jobs have been immune from mass layoffs. However, according to an analysis by Bloomberg economist Yelena Shulyatyeva, this is about to change because “a second wave of layoffs is coming” one which will have a far greater impact on white collar workers where “millions of positions are in jeopardy as a result of the spillover impact from massive job losses in March and April.”
According to the Bloomberg economist, “the first wave of over 20 million layoffs in March and April could trigger a second wave of 2 to 6 million as managers follow workers into unemployment and demand-weakness spills over from sector to sector.”
She adds that her downbeat estimate captures the likelihood of spillovers in two directions:
- First, intense job losses for blue collar workers mean white collar jobs in the same sectors are vulnerable.
- Second, a severe blow to demand from transport, leisure and other sectors in the direct path of the pandemic means a blow to jobs in adjacent sectors.
Dr. Anthony Fauci says there’s a chance coronavirus vaccine may not provide immunity for very long – CNBC
- White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said he worries about the “durability” of a potential coronavirus vaccine, saying there’s a chance it may not provide long-term immunity.
- If Covid-19 acts like other coronaviruses, “it likely isn’t going to be a long duration of immunity,” Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told JAMA Editor Howard Bauchner.
Coronavirus vaccine might require two doses, NIH chief says – CNN
National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Francis Collins told CNN that when the world eventually gets a coronavirus vaccine, it might require two doses to be fully effective.
“Obviously that’s not our favorite. It would be much better if this could all be done with a single injection,” Collins said.
Generally, with any vaccine, one dose is preferred for cost reasons, and also because people are less likely to show up twice to receive an injection.
Trump Administration Selects Five Coronavirus Vaccine Candidates as Finalists – New York Times
The Trump administration has selected five companies as the most likely candidates to produce a vaccine for the coronavirus, senior officials said, a critical step in the White House’s effort to deliver on its promise of being able to start widespread inoculation of Americans by the end of the year.
By winnowing the field in a matter of weeks from a pool of around a dozen companies, the federal government is betting that it can identify the most promising vaccine projects at an early stage, speed along the process of determining which will work and ensure that the winner or winners can be quickly manufactured in huge quantities and distributed across the country.
The announcement of the decision will be made at the White House in the next few weeks, government officials said. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the federal government’s top epidemiologist and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, hinted at the coming action on Tuesday when he told a medical seminar that “by the beginning of 2021 we hope to have a couple of hundred million doses.”
Amazon warehouse employees sue company over possible exposure to coronavirus: report – Market Watch
Three Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, -0.41% warehouse employees sued the retail giant on Wednesday in New York, alleging working conditions put them and their families at risk of contracting the coronavirus. The suit, reported by Bloomberg, claims unsafe working conditions. One of the plaintiffs, Barbara Chandler, says she contracted the virus in March at Amazon’s Staten Island, N.Y., distribution center, where employees “were explicitly or implicitly encouraged to continue attending work and prevented from adequately washing their hands or sanitizing their workstations.” Chandler’s cousin, whom she lived with, died after experiencing COVID-19 symptoms, the lawsuit alleges. “We are saddened by the tragic impact COVID-19 has had on communities across the globe, including on some Amazon team members and their family and friends,” an Amazon spokesperson told MarketWatch in a statement. “From early March to May 1, we offered our employees unlimited time away from work, and since May 1 we have offered leave for those most vulnerable or who need to care for children or family members. We also invested $4 billion from April to June on COVID-related initiatives, including over $800 million in the first half of this year on safety measures like temperature checks, masks, gloves, enhanced cleaning and sanitization (sic), extended pay and benefits options, testing, and more. This includes two weeks paid leave for any COVID diagnosis or quarantine, and launching a $25 million fund to support our partners and contractors.”
Trump administration moves to block Chinese airlines from US – Associated Press
The Trump administration moved Wednesday to block Chinese airlines from flying to the U.S. in an escalation of trade and diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
The Transportation Department said it would suspend passenger flights of four Chinese airlines to and from the United States starting June 16.
The decision was in response to China’s failure to let United Airlines and Delta Air Lines resume flights to China this month. The airlines suspended those flights earlier this year in response to the coronavirus pandemic that started in China’s Wuhan province.
On Thursday, the Chinese air regulator said more airlines would be allowed to resume flights to and from China but gave no indication whether United and Delta were included.
Mixed Results from Chinese Convalescent Plasma Trial – MedPage Today
Hospitalized patients with COVID-19 receiving convalescent plasma did not gain a statistically significant benefit in time to clinical improvement in a small randomized trial conducted in Wuhan, China.
But that may have been because the trial was stopped early, leaving it underpowered for many of the intended analyses.
Among the 103 patients treated in the study — barely half of the originally planned 200 — more patients receiving convalescent plasma in addition to standard treatment experienced clinical improvement within 28 days compare with a group getting standard care only (51.9% vs 43.1%, respectively; HR 1.40, 95% CI 0.79-2.49, P=0.26), reported Zhong Liu, MD, PhD, of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, and colleagues.
However, in a subgroup analysis of patients with severe, but not life-threatening, disease, there was a significant difference in clinical improvement in the plasma group compared to controls (HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.07-4.32, P=0.03), the authors wrote in JAMA.
Dutch to cull mink at farms hit by coronavirus outbreak – Reuters
The Dutch government on Wednesday ordered mink culled at nine farms where animals have been infected with the coronavirus, fearing they could form a reservoir of disease infecting humans after the country’s current outbreak has passed.
“Clearing the infected farms is in the interest of both human health and animal health,” Agriculture Minister Carola Schouten said in a letter to parliament, adding the cull would commence on Friday and farmers would be compensated.
Each farm houses several thousand of the ferret-like animals, which are bred for their fur.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
With children infected by coronavirus, Israel fears second wave
Vaccines group raises $8.8 billion for immunisation plans for poor countries
Face coverings will be mandatory on public transport in England after 15 June, government announces
European Central Bank nearly doubles pandemic support scheme
The following are additional national and state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
George Floyd was infected with COVID-19, autopsy reveals
AMC Theatres Has ‘Substantial Doubt’ It Can Reopen
NBA approves plan to resume play July 31 with 22 teams
Coronavirus Statistics For 04 June 2020 |
| U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
| Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
| New Cases | 19,699 | 1,850,000 | 126,350 | 6,480,000 | 15.6% | 28.5% |
| Deaths | 994 | 107,175 | 5,741 | 386,544 | 17.3% | 27.7% |
| Mortality Rate | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | ||
| total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 3.92* | 57.13* | ||||
* as of 02 June 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
1Q2020 Final Headline Productivity Hit By The Coronavirus
April 2020 Trade Significantly Declined Due to Coronavirus
30 May 2020 Initial Unemployment Claims 1,877,000 This Week
May 2020 Job Cuts Nearly 400,000 – Second Highest On Record.
Modeling The Global Effects Of The COVID-19 Sudden Stop In Capital Flows
Infographic Of The Day: How To Be Resilient During A Crisis
Health Crisis: Different Economic Animal From Financial Crisis
Where Coronavirus Cases Are Still Growing Rapidly
Americans’ Deepening Financial Stress Will Make The Coronavirus A Lot Harder To Contain
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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