Written by Steven Hansen
Again, today’s global new coronavirus cases hit a new high – the pandemic remains far from over. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;
- China Says A Coronavirus Vaccine May Be Ready This Year;
- Monkey steals COVID-19 blood samples from a lab technician in India;
- Lockdown or reopen? The morality of trade-offs between health and economics;
- and Supreme Court Rejects Church’s Challenge To California’s Coronavirus Rules.
Even though the U.S. may be over its peak in new daily coronavirus cases – the global cases continue to grow.
Stay safe – social distance and wear your mask. Don’t be lulled by a few who are not wearing masks as they don’t care who they infect.
Coronavirus News You May Have Missed
Texas Is Showing the World How to Reopen Cautiously – Bloomberg
[editor’s note:it is hard to summarize this post – it is worth a read so please click through]
Concerns erupted a month ago that coronavirus infections could surge after the state eased social-distancing measures—in just one example, prominent Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke called the Republican governor’s plan “dangerous.” And in recent days, there’s been an uptick in reported cases, though the rate of gains over the past seven weeks has been stable at about 1,000 a day. Texans appear to have evolved from a lockdown, which they took less seriously than other states, into a middle ground that hasn’t yet led to new outbreaks.
… Restaurants reopened on May 1 at reduced capacity, and so far only about a third of the state’s sit-down dining has returned, according to OpenTable. In major cities, the rebound is even more muted. Transactions at restaurants, including takeout and delivery, have tripled since late March, but are still down 50% from before the pandemic, according to Shift4, a payments processor.
China Says A Coronavirus Vaccine May Be Ready This Year – Forbes
A Chinese Covid-19 vaccine could be ready by the end of the year, a government body has announced as nations race to be the first to come up with a defense against the virus that has infected nearly 6 million people and wrecked the world economy.
… A vaccine developed by two state-affiliated companies working in tandem has the potential to be ready by the tail end of 2020 or by early 2021, according to a social media post made Friday from the Chinese state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC).
… According to the SASAC, the Beijing Institute of Biological Products production line will be able to manufacture between 100 million and 120 million vaccine doses per year at full capacity.
… There are five Chinese-developed immunizations being tested on humans, more than any other country in the world.
A COVID-19 vaccine has passed its first human trial. But is it the frontrunner? – National Geographic
A PROMISING CORONAVIRUS vaccine candidate cleared a key hurdle this week, when Moderna Therapeutics entered phase two of clinical trials. The move signals that the company’s mRNA vaccine has passed its initial safety checks and has met an important milestone in bringing this drug closer to the public and commercial markets.
… But the details that Moderna did present, paired with the latest announcement, suggest that the company may be on its way to achieving something unprecedented: licensing the first mRNA vaccine for human use.
… Messenger RNA is genetic material made of nucleic acid—the same stuff as our DNA—that travels throughout our cells, giving final instructions on which proteins to build to form the body’s cellular architecture. In the early 1990s, scientists wondered what would happen if they manufactured pieces of viral DNA and mRNA and then injected them into human cells or lab animals. The hope was that the cells would take in the genetic snippets, make viral proteins, and trigger an immune response.
Monkey steals COVID-19 blood samples from a lab technician in India – LiveScience
A monkey attacked a lab technician on the campus of a medical school in India and ran away with blood samples from three patients infected with COVID-19.
The robbed lab technician, meanwhile, took video with his phone of the incident. After snatching the samples and other medical items, the video reveals, the monkey clambered up a nearby tree; that video, which was shared on social media, also shows the animal gnawing on what look like surgical gloves, Indian news outlet NDTV reported.
COVID-19 Defies Hyperbole – Advisor Perspectives
The economic effects from COVID-19 will be devastating. Stock and asset prices will fall dramatically and will take years to recover. U.S. Treasury yields will turn negative. Sell “risk-on” assets, increase cash, and buy Treasury bonds.
The U.S., if not the world’s economy was primed for a serious recession coming into 2020. I argued in an article published on January 13 that, based on economic indicators, a U.S. recession would begin sometime before the end of 2020 and likely by March. In this context, COVID-19 was just the catalyst (albeit, a transcendent one) that tipped the world into it. Pandemic or not, the world was oversupplied and due to flush-out bad debt, weak companies and inequality. It only needed a push. China hadn’t had a recession in 42 years (since modern records have been kept in 1978), Australia in 28 years, and the U.S. in 10 years. Creative destruction had been waiting a long time.
… The health side of the story is bad enough, but the economic one is worse. The combined economic effects of the global simultaneous lock-down, nine or more months of social distancing/rolling lock-down until a potential vaccine/treatment is available (the “90% Economy” as The Economist has termed it), as well as the normal deleveraging side of the business cycle (the “knock-on” effects or mentality change that usually is the recession) make for an economic contraction that will be deep (severe), wide (pervasive), and long (time).
Lockdown or reopen? The morality of trade-offs between health and economics – Action Institute
This piece is not about what aspects of lockdown one personally does or does not support. Rather it is an exploration of methodology and then applying that methodology to some of the current policy prescriptions. We need, in conclusion, then to remember the following:
- – There are trade-offs between all options in a fallen world (or, if you don’t like the theology, in a world of scarce resources);
- – The theological idea of natural rights inherent to all people made in the image of God is preferable to concepts such as utilitarianism;
- – Natural or God-given rights include economic as well as social rights;
- – Consequently, there is something deeply moral about returning the economy to a functioning market which creates wealth as all people benefit from such moves; and
- – Government interventions should only ever be viewed as temporary.
Cities push back as airlines seek dozens of new service cuts. Is your airport on the list? – USA Today
Airports on the list that could temporarily lose an airline or certain flightsrange from those in large cities like Albuquerque, New Mexico, and New Orleans, to towns like Platinum, Alaska, and Ogdensburg, New York. Most, however, fall somewhere in the middle when it comes to size, whether its Columbus, Ohio, or Sacramento, California.
Some cities could take multiple hits. Palm Springs, California, is on the chopping block when it comes to service from JetBlue, Allegiant and Frontier.
… The 15 carriers that have applied to suspend some service range from giants American, Delta and United to regional airlines Cape Air and Silver Airways. Before the pandemic, the airlines could have just cut flights on their own. But as a condition of having accepted bailout funds under the federal stimulus, they must apply for DOT approval before stopping service to a particular city.
Federal Reserve Discloses Holdings of $1.3 Billion in Exchange-Traded Funds – Wall Street Journal
ETFs focused on non-investment grade debt account for around one sixth of such fund purchases
The Federal Reserve’s first $1.3 billion of purchases of exchange-traded funds that invest in corporate bonds show that funds that focus on buying non-investment grade debt accounted for around one sixth of the central bank’s ETF purchases.
The Fed announced plans to backstop debts of investment-grade firms after the coronavirus pandemic led to a deep freeze across credit markets in mid-March, and it subsequently said in April it would backstop debt for so-called fallen angels, or firms that had been rated investment grade…
Powell Says Fed Policies ‘Absolutely’ Don’t Add to Inequality – Bloomberg via Yahoo
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell cast the central bank’s actions during the coronavirus crisis as aimed squarely at helping U.S. workers, a tactic to head off criticism which has dogged it since the last recession: that its policies primarily serve Wall Street and wealthier Americans.
The Fed’s flurry of emergency lending since mid-March has sought to stabilize financial markets and extend credit to companies struggling to find financing from banks and other traditional lending sources. That has helped buoy financial markets and again exposed the Fed to attacks for having rescued investors first. The central bank has attracted additional scrutiny for not mandating companies that access its support to maintain payrolls.
Powell countered by saying the Fed’s real aim is to preserve jobs by keeping firms afloat.
“The pandemic is falling on those least able to bear its burdens, it is a great increaser of inequality,” Powell said Friday during an online discussion when asked whether the Fed’s policies contribute to U.S. inequality. “Everything we do is focused on creating an environment in which those people will have their best chance to keep their job or maybe get a new job.”
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that more than half (55 percent) of households with children have had at least one adult lose employment income since the beginning of the pandemic. That’s significantly higher than what’s happened in childless households (where the rate is 44 percent).
Also, adults in households with children who reported that they weren’t working were more likely to say it was because of a permanent reason, such as being laid off. Adults in childless households who lost income were more likely to report having been furloughed or having taken a temporary pay cut.
The financial strain on families is only likely to increase. The New York Times reports that another 2.1 million people filed unemployment claims last week, bringing the total to more than 40 million people, or one in four American workers.
Billionaires Are $434 Billion Richer Since the Pandemic Started
Supreme Court Rejects Church’s Challenge To California’s Coronavirus Rules – NPR
The Supreme Court has rejected a California church’s attempt to overturn the state’s coronavirus restrictions on in-person religious services.
In a 5-4 decision issued late Friday, Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the court’s liberal bloc in upholding the state’s right to impose limits on congregations in order to slow the spread of COVID-19.
“Although California’s guidelines place restrictions on places of worship, those restrictions appear consistent with the Free Exercise Clause of the First Amendment,” Roberts said, in an opinion that denied a request by the South Bay United Pentecostal Church for relief from the rules.
Here’s What Each State Is Binge-Watching During The COVID-19 Lockdown – ZeroHedge
With months of government-enforced lockdowns starting to come to an end, Americans have found themselves watching hours and hours of “comfort food” TV during the COVID-19 outbreak.
CableTV.com recently conducted a survey of nearly 7,000 housebound viewers and found that they’re spending a lot of time with old friends – capital “F” Friends, to be exact.
The following are foreign headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
Germany reaches EU deal on $9.9 billion Lufthansa bailout
India posts record jump in virus cases, Modi says battle ahead
India and Thailand are easing their lockdowns, but grim prospects remain for both.
Angela Merkel rejects Trump’s G7 summit invite: report
The following are state headlines with hyperlinks to the posts
New York City, New Jersey See a June Revival
Med School to Students: Sign This COVID Waiver or Risk Graduation Delay
California is the fourth state with at least 100,000 known cases.
Coronavirus Statistics For 30 May 2020 |
U.S. Only | Global | U.S Percentage of Total | ||||
Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | Today | Cumulative | |
New Cases | 25,337 | 1,750,000 | 122,354 | 5,900,000 | 20.7% | 29.7% |
Deaths | 1,219 | 102,836 | 4,800 | 364,891 | 25.4% | 28.2% |
Mortality Rate | 4.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | ||
total COVID-19 Tests per 1,000 people | 0.86* | 45.90* |
* as of 27 May 2020
Today’s Posts On Econintersect Showing Impact Of The Pandemic With Hyperlinks
Keeping Economic Data Flowing During COVID-19
Firms Expect Working From Home To Triple
Interest-Only Mortgages And Speculation In Hot Housing Markets
Will COVID-19 Leave Lasting Economic Scars?
Infographic Of The Day: Which Economies Are Reopening?
Covid-19 Unmasks Faulty Euro Structure
Trump Tweeting As Much As Ever Amid Twitter Standoff
How Coronavirus Contact Tracing Works In A State Dr. Fauci Praised As A Model To Follow
Coronavirus INTERACTIVE Charts
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Analyst Opinion of Coronavirus Data
There are several takeaways that need to be understood when viewing coronavirus statistical data:
- The global counts are suspect for a variety of reasons including political. Even the U.S. count has issues as it is possible that as much as half the population has had coronavirus and was asymptomatic. It would be a far better metric using a random sampling of the population weekly. In short, we do not understand the size of the error in the tracking numbers.
- Just because some of the methodology used in aggregating the data in the U.S. is flawed – as long as the flaw is uniformly applied – you establish a baseline. This is why it is dangerous to compare two countries as they likely use different methodologies to determine who has (and who died) from coronavirus.
- COVID-19 and the flu are different but can have similar symptoms. For sure, COVID-19 so far is much more deadly than the flu. [click here to compare symptoms]
- From an industrial engineering point of view, one can argue that it is best to flatten the curve only to the point that the health care system is barely able to cope. This solution only works if-and-only-if one can catch this coronavirus once and develops immunity. In the case of COVID-19, herd immunity may need to be in the 80% to 85% range. WHO warns that few have developed antibodies to COVID-19. At this point, herd immunity does not look like an option.
- Older population countries will have a higher death rate.
- There are at least 8 strains of the coronavirus. New York may have a deadlier strain imported from Europe, compared to less deadly viruses elsewhere in the United States.
- Each publication uses different cutoff times for its coronavirus statistics. Our data uses 11:00 am London time. Also, there is an unexplained variation in the total numbers both globally and in the U.S.
- The real question remains if the U.S. is over-reacting to this virus. The following graphic from the CDC puts the annual flu burden in perspective [click on image to enlarge].
What we do not know about the coronavirus [actually there is little scientifically proven information]. Most of our knowledge is anecdotal, from studies with limited subjects, or from studies without peer review.
- How many people have been infected?
- Can the US really scale up coronavirus testing and tracing?
- What forms of social distancing work best?
- Can children widely spread coronavirus?
- Why have some places avoided big coronavirus outbreaks?
- What effect will the weather have?
- Can we reopen parks and beaches? [we will find out soon as many beaches and parks have reopened]
- Do we develop lasting immunity to the coronavirus?
- Can the world really push out a vaccine in 12 to 18 months?
- Will we get other medical treatments for Covid-19?
- Do we need all these ventilators?
The bottom line is that COVID-19 so far has been shown to be much more deadly than the data on the flu. Using CDC data, the flu has a mortality rate between 0.06 % and 0.11 % Vs. the coronavirus which to date has a mortality rate of over 5 % – which makes it between 45 and 80 times more deadly. The reason for ranges:
Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza.
There will be a commission set up after this pandemic ends to find fault [it is easy to find fault when a once-in-a-lifetime event occurs] and to produce recommendations for the next time a pandemic happens. Those that hate President Trump will conclude the virus is his fault. The most important issue will be an analysis of whether the federal government took a strong enough lead in dealing with the pandemic – and that includes every single politician!
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