28 May 2020 Coronavirus Charts and News – New Model Shows The U.S. Coronavirus Pandemic Could Be Over Mid-November

Written by Steven Hansen

The U.S. exceeded 100,000 deaths due to coronavirus – and the death toll today jumped higher. At the end of this post is a set of interactive graphs and tables for the world and individual states – as well as today’s headlines which include;

• the FDA has issued an emergency use authorization for a new coronavirus test from Quest Diagnostics that allows people to collect their sample from home;
• South Korea sees spike in new COVID cases for 2nd straight day;
• sewage plants may be a good indicator of coronavirus infection rates;
• Researchers ponder why COVID appears more deadly in the U.S. and Europe than in Asia.

Incidentally, I have no interest in passing along politically based coronavirus stories – I just want facts and unbiased analysis, not somebody’s opinion. Readers are advised that almost all information we are reading is either anecdotal; an extrapolation of data relating to a different virus; or studies that need validation, peer review, or are not scientific. Hopefully a year from now we will have a better handle on the real facts.

Passing 100,000 coronavirus deaths today is a large number. Please stay safe by social distancing and wearing a mask.

From the BBC:

The chart below shows the countries with the highest death tolls and, to the right, their mortality rate. You can see that by that measure there are several countries where a greater proportion of the population has died during the coronavirus outbreak.

Coronavirus News You May Have Missed

FDA authorizes Quest’s coronavirus test with at-home sample collection; shares rise – CNBC

The Food and Drug Administration has issued an emergency use authorization for a new coronavirus test from Quest Diagnostics that allows people to collect their sample from home, the company announced Thursday.

The company said it will make more than 500,000 of the kits available by the end of next month. The self-collection kit will include a swab that allows people to collect a sample from their nostril and can then be shipped overnight with FedEx to a lab, the company said.

“COVID-19 molecular diagnostic testing has been constrained partly by limited supplies of swabs and trained healthcare professionals to do the specimen collection,” Quest CEO Steve Rusckowski said in a statement. “The self-collection kit enables an individual to self-collect at home, and the process is far less invasive and uncomfortable than many traditional methods.”

… Quest’s new test is not the first to allow people to collect their own samples at home and ship it in to a lab. In April, the FDA cleared the first such collection kit from testing giant LabCorp.

Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the US by November 11: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave – Daily Mail

The coronavirus pandemic in the United States could be over as early as mid-November, new modeling has shown.

Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model predicting the exact date the pandemic will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world.

According to the data, the US is on track to be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the UK could see an earlier end date of September 30.

The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country.

Researchers ponder why covid appears more deadly in the U.S. and Europe than in Asia – The Washington Post

The baseline assumption, at the moment, is that the virus — officially SARS-CoV-2 — mutates the way all viruses do and is just as innately contagious and lethal in one part of the world as in another.

… Demographics also play a role in regional disparities. Africa’s generally younger population may have been more resistant than northern Italy’s older communities, for example.

… Nobel laureate Tasuku Honjo, a Japanese physician-scientist and immunologist, said people with Asian and European ancestry have enormous differences in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotype, genes that control the immune system’s response to a virus.

… Tatsuhiko Kodama of the University of Tokyo said preliminary studies show that Japanese people’s immune systems tend to react to the novel coronavirus as though they had previous exposure, and notes that there are centuries of history of coronaviruses emerging from East Asia.

… Obesity is a leading risk factor for serious covid-19 illness. Just over 4 percent of Japanese people are classified as obese, and less than 5 percent of South Koreans. That compares with 20 percent or more in Western Europe, and 36 percent of people in the United States, according to the World Health Organization.

[editor’s note: you need to read this entire post as it makes too many points to summarize. Logic dictates that because the coronavirus has impacted some countries more than others – there are many issues in play. The answers may be known sometime in the future

Here Is The Best Advance Indicator If A Second Wave Of Coronavirus Is Coming – ZeroHedge

… a team of researchers from Yale University in New Haven, Conn. published a paper earlier this month on their studies of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the sewage in the Greater New Haven area. In the abstract of their report, the team determined that “when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations were highly correlated with the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 =0.99) and local hospital admissions (R2 =0.99). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a seven-day leading indicator ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and led local hospital admissions data by three days.”

… By analyzing wastewater from a sewage plant that serves a four-municipality area (pop ~200,000 residents), the researchers applied several data processing techniques to smooth the data and allow for fair comparisons between the sewage data and data collected by the local hospital system in New Haven.

… The team found that the “peak” level of virus RNA arrived 3 days before hospitals reported their ‘peak’ number of patients.

Gilead study shows a shorter five-day course of Remdesivir works as well as 10-day one – U.S. News

Gilead Sciences Inc, which has suggested that a shorter treatment duration could extend limited supplies of its drug remdesivir, on Wednesday published results of a study showing no significant difference in outcomes between 5- and 10-day courses of the drug for patients with severe COVID-19

[editor’s note: the reason for the study is that remdesivir is in short supply – and this doubles the amount of doses available.]

Even as countries move to reopen, the pandemic is growing at a faster pace. – New York Times

The coronavirus pandemic’s pace is quickening worldwide, with nearly 700,000 new known infections reported in the last week after the pathogen found greater footholds in Latin America and the Gulf states.

The virus has infected almost 5.7 million people around the world and killed at least 355,000, according to data compiled by The New York Times. It was only last Thursday that the world crossed the dispiriting threshold of 5 million cases, after it took nearly two weeks for a million more infections to become known.

… Outbreaks have accelerated especially sharply in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, with caseloads doubling in some countries about every two weeks. On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said it considered the Americas to be the new epicenter of the pandemic.

[editor’s note: the rate of growth of the coronavirus pandemic declined in the U.S. last week]

Montgomery mayor says entire city only has two ICU beds available – CNN

Montgomery, Alabama, Mayor Steven Reed said the whole city only had two available ICU beds this morning amid the coronavirus pandemic.

“We have not gotten out of this, and unfortunately, people believe that the pandemic is over, and they believe that we get chance to determine when things go back to normal, and we don’t. So I’m certainly concerned about those who may be sick and those who may have some illnesses not being able to get the attention they may need,” he continued.

Northwest Iowa county with meatpacking plant sees coronavirus spike – Omaha.com

A northwest Iowa county that is home to a meatpacking plant has seen more than 500 coronavirus cases in the past week, but state officials and the company said Wednesday they couldn’t confirm an outbreak at the facility.

The State Health Department reported 678 cases since May 20 in Buena Vista County, where a Tyson pork processing plant is located in Storm Lake, 120 miles northeast of Omaha.

Second-Quarter GDP Growth Estimate Increases – Atlanta Fed

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -40.4 percent on May 28, up from -41.9 percent on May 19. After recent housing market releases from the National Association of Realtors and the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from -66.0 percent to -60.2 percent.

“Is It Safe for Me to Go to Work?” Risk Stratification for Workers during the Covid-19 Pandemic – The New England Journal of Medicine

S. Korea Sees Spike in New COVID Cases for 2nd Straight Day – VOA

South Korea’s Health Ministry reported 79 new coronavirus cases on Thursday, its largest daily jump in two months and second straight day the country saw an increase in new cases.

Thursday’s total is nearly double the 40 new cases reported Wednesday, which was the highest figure in 49 days.

South Korea’s deputy health minister, Kim Kang-lip, said 54 of the new cases were from a parcel delivery distribution center for the e-commerce firm Coupang in Bucheon, west of Seoul, adding to 15 earlier cases found at the same location. He said about 4,100 workers who were believed to have not followed social distancing and other safety procedures properly are being isolated and tested.

More than 80% of coronavirus patients on a cruise ship did not have any symptoms – CNBC

• More than 80% of infected passengers and crew on an expedition cruise ship did not show any symptoms, raising questions about the true prevalence of “silent” coronavirus infections, according to a new study.
• The three researchers said their findings emphasize the need for accurate global data on the true number of people, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, who have been infected with the coronavirus.
• The World Health Organization cautioned earlier Wednesday that it’s unknown whether people who have been infected with the coronavirus are at risk of becoming infected again.

1 in 4 American workers have filed for unemployment benefits during the pandemic – CNN

More than 40 million Americans have filed for first-time unemployment benefits since the coronavirus pandemic forced the US economy to shut down in March. One in four American workers has filed for unemployment insurance.

Another 2.1 million people filed initial jobless claims last week on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Department of Labor reported Thursday morning.

It was the tenth-straight week in which claims were in the millions. America had never recorded a single week of 1 million jobless claims prior to the coronavirus crisis.

Orlando mayor says Disney and other theme parks have gone “extra mile” to open safely – CNN

Orlando, Florida, Mayor Jerry Demings said major theme parks like Disney World, that plan to reopen in mid-July, have demonstrated they “have gone the extra mile” to ensure they can open safely.

Demings, as mayor, has approved reopening plans from Disney World, SeaWorld and Universal Studios.

The plans include wearing masks and maintaining social distance, but Demings told CNN on Thursday that he couldn’t guarantee it would be enough to keep people safe.

“Well I can’t guarantee that,” Demings said. “But we have a high probability that the likelihood that they can contact or contract the virus has been reduced because of the various sanitary measures that have been put in place.”

Orlando has a 2.8% positivity rate for Covid-19 according to Demings, which he says is about half of what it is in the rest of the state.

American Airlines says to cut management and support staff by 30% – Reuters

American Airlines Group Inc must reduce its management and support staff by about 30% and may have to cut frontline employees as it downsizes due to the coronavirus outbreak, showed a letter to employees made public on Wednesday.

All major U.S. airlines have said they will need to shrink in the fall, once U.S. government payroll aid that bans involuntary job cuts expires on Sept. 30.

Competitor United Airlines Holdings Inc has also said it will need to reduce its management and administrative staff by about 30%.

Nissan to close Indonesia, Spain auto plants after losses – San Diego Union-Tribune

Nissan announced Thursday it will closing two auto plants, in Spain and Indonesia, as it sank into the red for the first time in 11 years, as the coronavirus pandemic sent global demand plunging and halted production.

Nissan’s Chief Executive Makoto Uchida told reporters the production in Europe will be centered at the British plant in Sunderland, and the production in Indonesia will move to Thailand, as the Japanese automaker reduces global production by 20%.

Nissan Motor Co. reported Thursday a 671.2 billion yen ($6.2 billion) loss for the fiscal year ended in March, its first annual loss since getting slammed by aftermath of the financial crisis in the year ending in March 2009.

US Media Failed to Factcheck Sweden’s Herd Immunity Hoax – Fair.org

Swedish officials had previously said that their capital city of Stockholm could be approaching “herd immunity,” where so many people had contracted and survived the virus that their natural resistance could make the coronavirus begin to disappear on its own (CNBC, 4/22/20). But testing in Stockholm found that, in fact, only 7.3% of residents had SARS-COV-2 antibodies (Guardian, 5/21/20; CNN, 5/21/20). Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell called the figure “a bit lower than we’d thought.”

… None of this, alarmingly, stopped the international press from initially touting Sweden’s claims that herd immunity was a potentially promising way to avoid widespread lockdown.

… The explanation, it turns out, is less herd immunity than a limited spread of the virus into the Swedish population: Assuming a 0.56% fatality rate, Sweden’s 4,029 total Covid-19 deaths as of May 26 would suggest that about 7% of the Swedish population has been infected, right in line with the latest antibody survey.

[editor’s note: as there are anecdotal instances of people getting coronavirus twice – herd immunity does not seem achievable. Additionally, the levels of coronavirus infection are insignificant relative to the levels needed for herd immunity to work. Further, as we continue to point out, almost all information we are reading are either anecdotal; an extrapolation of data relating to a different virus; or studies which need validation, peer review, or are not scientific.]

* as of 26 May 2020

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